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  • Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

    Y'all have summed last night up well. Big picture, a top 10 routinely in the national mix team wore out an under manned team on the rise from the bottom. The 'cats effort deserved a better result, but the performance, given what they had to work with, did not. At full strength, we lose to Providence 85% of the time. That will change.

    Gildon was the best player on the ice. His TOI was immense.
    I will not be out cheered in my own building.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Darius View Post
      Y'all have summed last night up well. Big picture, a top 10 routinely in the national mix team wore out an under manned team on the rise from the bottom. The 'cats effort deserved a better result, but the performance, given what they had to work with, did not. At full strength, we lose to Providence 85% of the time. That will change.

      Gildon was the best player on the ice. His TOI was immense.
      Love the truthful optimism here! You are right; PC beats UNH most of the time...for now (tho I’ve always savored the wins we do get) Max cannot win hockey games all by himself. Add 4 to 5 players of his caliber and we are cooking with gas. It’s hardly his fault the D couldn’t sustain the PC offense for ever...but the cool part? We gave them a tough weekend and at least we were not shut out. Even with the skeleton crew we had for D we were respectable (and Robinson’s work in the crease no doubt led to coming out with something!!). Kudos to the boys for giving their all.

      Anyhoo...if you read Coach Souza’s comments he’s not satisfied with the result and made no excuses. Who has any idea about Dartmouth?
      Here we go 'Cats!!

      Comment


      • Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

        4 wins, 22 losses, 10 ties

        That, ladies and gentlemen, is what our UNH Wildcats have posted as a record since after its last quality win, which (as touched upon by others earlier this weekend) was on this same weekend last year, a 1-0 home win vs. Providence. And that includes a win in their very next game, a rare midweek road win at RPI. So before you jump to any conclusions that I'm not being charitable with the start/end date for this comparison … I could have said the last 35 games were 3-22-10. So to paraphrase the immortal words of the Bill Murray character in Caddyshack … well, at least we've got that going for us.

        For fans of UNH Hockey history, I call your attention to the "Dark Ages" of the mid-80's, which is the time period some of us have been cautioning the program has been sliding (and more recently collapsing) towards. Coinciding with the first few years of Hockey East, and the dreaded Interlocking schedule of those early HE days with the WCHA (I think; right Greg?), I'll post the three worst years of that stretch, which played out as follows:

        1985-1986: 5 wins, 29 losses, 3 ties
        1986-1987: 8 wins, 27 losses, 3 ties
        1987-1988: 7 wins, 20 losses, 3 ties (seems off?)

        http://www.hockeydb.com/stte/u.-of-n...hire-8644.html

        We can discuss the relative merits of the current program with the state of the UNH program 30 years back, and I guess my sense is, this team (and last year's) is a better team than those back in the mid-'80's. I'm not sure I put too much stock in the volume of ties over the last 12 months, as opposed to the "old days", as it's a more defensive-oriented game these days, so ties are likely much more prevalent.

        But the current sad state of affairs - admittedly from cobbling just over half of last season together with just under half of this season, and with largely similar rosters - is that despite us wanting to believe otherwise, UNH Hockey has never won less games than they have during this most recent stretch.

        Never.

        This feels like the bottom, and sure, maybe there's only been this one loss in the last four games. Baby steps (we hope). Then again, the program is so shallow in depth that injuries have reduced the D-corps to five healthy skaters - one a frosh playing games he likely never expected to see this season - plus a converted forward, who no doubt will go back to being a (5th line) forward once the rash of injuries on the backline abates. The situation has not been aided by the decommits of a few promising D-men (I think Dan mentioned Miller as the current leading defector in absentia). These are not signs of a program getting healthier, either.

        I remember cautioning folks back in the good ol' days, just over a decade ago, that those were indeed the "good ol' days" when times like these might follow.

        And so here we are. Welcome to the "Dark Ages Chapter 2" or the "Bad Ol' Days (Redux)" verified.

        The only way to go from here is up. OR (sans Gildon) we stagnate at this level for a couple more years. Ugh.

        Sorry to be the harbinger of doom. It's looking pretty gray out there, and the symbolism is sadly fitting.
        Sworn Enemy of the Perpetually Offended
        Montreal Expos Forever ...

        Comment


        • Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

          Well Chuck you do paint a sad picture and many of us here have been to most of those games you mentioned of the past year. And I know this weighs heavily on the minds of the coaching staff. No one likes to lose a ton of games and be seen as “one of the worst teams in the nation” as we were called the other day in another board. Of course this coming from a fan who’s team who has hung a recent banner but I’ll digress (I had to get that off my chest it’s been bugging me).

          Things aren’t going to shift dramatically this season in terms of any grandiose plans but I’m holding fast to the idea we have a shot at making the HE tournament. That’s a reasonable goal to shoot for. They have to be able to play for a full 60 mins etc. etc etc But, they know all that and they are working towards that. (Yes I've edited some of this felt I was sounding too neg) Anyway, am in it for the duration as they say!

          It’s not ok for this team to languish at the bottom for long. Can’t sustain itself that way....and I am doing my very best Polar Express thinking that there’s life in that bell yet this season!!
          Last edited by HockeyRef; 12-02-2018, 07:18 PM.
          Here we go 'Cats!!

          Comment


          • I would agree with those who think this UNH team has been enjoyable to watch - much more so than last seasons - due to how they're playing the game and a few exciting individuals/storylines (Robinson, Gildon and Pierson). Unfortunately, I came to make a similar point Chuck to the one just made and I'm not sure I see any corner being turned (at least not yet)...

            After watching last year's group start 5-0-0/6-1-1, I can't share the conviction that this team or program has turned the corner based on their recent 1-1-2 stretch against a mediocre Miami team and a good, solid PC group. The close games and ties are nothing new (neither are the few and far between victories). And as Chuck states, with scoring down - close games are much more prevelamt these days, I need to see UNH start winning these games on a regular basis before I'm convinced this year is actually any different than last year...

            UNH went 2-11-6 in one-goal (or less) games last year and 5-14-6 in games decided by two or less. This year the Wildcats are 1-4-5 in one-goal or tie games and 1-6-5 in contests with a differential of two-goals or less.

            Conventional wisdom would tell you that close game W-L decisions would even out over the long run - and that seems to be the hope here. However, I think the question on the other side of the coin is completely fair - why aren't these games evening out? Why do the close losses just keep piling up, instead?

            In 29 0-1 goal games over the past two years (analytical stats would suggest UNH should be around .500 in those games), UNH has won just three! Keeping games close hasn't been UNH's problem the last handful of years. Winning games has been the problem - and unfortunately, not much has changed in that regard. I am happy to hear Souza acknowledge this fact - they need to start winning these close games at least half the time to show progress. They're not right now and there is a clear reason...

            They need to start scoring. If you can't score goals you cannot win. They managed two goals total this weekend versus Providence. I do believe the D and goaltending is much improved - but unless they can balance that with some goals it really doesn't matter much. UNH currently ranks 51st in scoring at 2.07 GPG - UNH losing a close game 2- or 3-1 is more a sign of their issues, to me at least, than much progress...

            ---

            If UNH is making progress than they should be expecting to sweep a mid-level Dartmouth squad. I certainly don't expect that to happen. This series has split written all over it - which would send UNH to the break with three wins and a total of four in its previous 365 days...

            Dartmouth has been a jekyll and hyde group this season. They've posted big wins over Harvard, Yale, Cornell and Quinnipiac, but also disappointing losses to Brown, UVM (and getting walked by Princeton, 7-1). They've allowed four or more goals in four of their eight games (+6 in an EX loss to the USNTDP) and two or fewer in the other four...

            I'd guess UNH will play their two hard-working, competitive and close games - with Dartmouth showing up one-night and less so the next. Split.

            Dartmouth is led by their top line and the duo of Grabner and Foreman. The second line features FR O'Connor and rounds out much of their offense. Defensively they're solid, with streaky goaltending. After allowing 13 goals in their first two games of the season (19 in 3 of you count their EX), the Big Green have allowed just 14 in their past six (5 in one of those games). Goals will once again he at a premium if UNH expects to have any success...

            ---

            Props to those who have backed Gildon after his play was mischatactetized earlier in the thread. The reality about the two goals that were discussed is that the first was a behind the play change that led to a cherry-picked breakaway (not Gildon getting beat), while the second was (as DB correctly pointed out) a choice between a game-ending ENG (scored from in front of him) or extending the game (under difficult circumstances) so his team could have a chance...

            He's been easily playing 30+ minutes all season - and last night he (and Wyse) probably played 45 or more...
            Last edited by Dan; 12-02-2018, 02:15 PM.
            Live Free or Die!!
            Miami University '03

            Comment


            • Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

              Food for thought!

              https://athleteassessments.com/how-t...losing-streak/

              Key take away; losing streaks will be broken!
              UNH Hockey: You can check out any time you like but you can never leave!

              Comment


              • Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

                Originally posted by e.cat View Post
                Food for thought!

                https://athleteassessments.com/how-t...losing-streak/

                Key take away; losing streaks will be broken!
                That's good stuff e.cat thanks for this!
                Here we go 'Cats!!

                Comment


                • Originally posted by HockeyRef View Post
                  That's good stuff e.cat thanks for this!
                  Thanks Ref. Just trying to help Chuck off the cliff!
                  UNH Hockey: You can check out any time you like but you can never leave!

                  Comment


                  • Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

                    Originally posted by e.cat View Post
                    Food for thought!

                    https://athleteassessments.com/how-t...losing-streak/

                    Key take away; losing streaks will be broken!
                    I honestly can't believe I just wasted 5 minutes of my life reading that insta-coach marketing tripe.

                    e.cat - you do realize UNH is mired in more than just a "losing streak", right??? Technically, there is no "losing streak" - there is one (1) loss in a row as we speak. We are talking about long-term program deterioration. I'm not sure if you've noticed … but as of (very early) last March, there are no longer any (0) players in the UNH program who can say they remember playing for a winning UNH team, or one that played any truly meaningful games. As recently as five years ago, despite the program's obvious slippage over the previous decade, you could still at least point to mostly winning teams, frequently making trips to Boston and/or the D-1 tourney.

                    No more.

                    Now, those of us who dare to dream, hope and pray UNH will somehow make the 8 team HE Tourney field. I've predicted they won't, but I really hope I'm proven wrong. But let's say they do finish 8th, or 7th, or even 6th in what appears to be a down year in Hockey East. What happens next? Two and out on the road, or maybe a 3 game series before the season wraps up short of Boston yet again? Would that mark the start of the turnaround? Maybe … depending on how they follow it up next season, likely without Gildon. And who's to say that Wyse decides a free agent/AHL offer isn't better than the current situation in Durham? Good luck with that.

                    For this program to truly turn around, there will need to be an accumulation of a critical mass of talented players who will lift the UNH program off the bottom of the league. That's the reality of where we are, right now. I don't see that accumulation happening yet, nor has the "coach 'em up" scenario yet shown any true traction. That can all change. I just don't see that it's happened (or changed) yet, and I don't see any big wave of incoming recruiting success taking shape, either. I wish I could say that I did … but I don't.

                    For those who prefer to be optimistic and see things through rose-colored glasses … go for it, you have every right to be a fan however you see fit. Remember, 15-20 years ago, I was on here regularly pooh-poohing the gathering narrative that Coach Umile couldn't win the really big games … until it eventually got to the point where that was virtually undeniable. So I've been (badly) wrong before, and I'll be wrong again. I don't claim to be clairvoyant. These are opinions, based on what I hope is objective analysis and experience.

                    So if you disagree, e-cat (or anyone else) …. why not try to explain exactly why you disagree? What specifically do you see that tells you the UNH program is turning around now? Blind faith … or something concrete?

                    As the adage goes … don't pee on my shoes, and then try to tell me it's raining …
                    Sworn Enemy of the Perpetually Offended
                    Montreal Expos Forever ...

                    Comment


                    • Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

                      Surprised no one is talking about the most likely fact that Max Gildon could (will?) be playing for the USA in the upcoming World Jr. Championships....if he is selected he would miss potentially the Bentley/Merrimack/Yale games. It would be a great honor for him but we will of course miss him. Saw this on Twitter tonight talking about the possible lineups:

                      https://thepuckauthority.com/2019-am...oster-preview/
                      Here we go 'Cats!!

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by HockeyRef View Post
                        Surprised no one is talking about the most likely fact that Max Gildon could (will?) be playing for the USA in the upcoming World Jr. Championships....if he is selected he would miss potentially the Bentley/Merrimack/Yale games. It would be a great honor for him but we will of course miss him. Saw this on Twitter tonight talking about the possible lineups:

                        https://thepuckauthority.com/2019-am...oster-preview/
                        I'm not sure it's more than 50/50 that Gildon even gets invited to pre-tournament camp. I very much hope he makes the team and gets a shot to play on the PP with other elite talent, but at this point I'm not necessarily expecting it...

                        Gildon didn't make the team last year - even though I still think he should have. He wasn't invited to the summer camp this year until Wisconsin's Miller turned up sick - and he was then among the mid-camp cuts.

                        Prefacing this with the fact that I think he is absolutely deserving of making the team - here are the factors working against him right now...

                        * The US is incredibly deep in '99 defensemen.
                        * The US returns three defenseman from last year, eligible to compete again in Anderson, Samburg and Hughes.
                        * A number of '99 defenseman bring strong offensive reputations to the table, beginning with Hughes but also including Reilly Walsh, K'Andre Miller and Matthias Samuelsson.
                        * The US is especially deep on the L side (including all three returnees) and Gildon could lose out to a RHD if the team prefers to stick to stick-side choices. Quite frankly one could make an argument that their best six D are all LHD.
                        * Team USA often prefers to bring some younger defenseman who could play a role and then gain experience to lead the unit the next year. Bode Wilde is a big factor here.
                        * Will UNH's struggles lead to his elite impact and significant (but somewhat hindered) production being overlooked...

                        The Bottom line is that Gildon deserves it in my opinion - but it just isn't a normal year for Team USA defenseman. It is as strong a position group as any country could offer at any position. So it will come down entirely to what team USA is looking for when it builds its defensive pairings, as well as some serious position battles between those players (hopefully Gildon) who do get invited to the pre-tournament camp...

                        His best path to making the team is if the US decides to go as mobile as possible, values '99 defensemen over less experienced '00s and eschews stick-side for talent. If he makes the team it will say A LOT about the perception of Gildon on a national level as he'll beat out some real talent to do so. If not it will be as much extremely unique circumstance as anything else.

                        USA would be missing out not taking him in at least the 7th D role to play PP time and match ups, but who knows. Here's the long list of D-men who's could all make this team (and I am probably missing one or two more)...

                        Hughes, Samburg, Anderson, Walsh, Gildon, Samuelsson, Miller, Mirageas, Kemp, Rathbone, Wilde, Keane, Demin, Farrance, Emberson, Callahan, Phillips, Del Gaizo, Regula...

                        Quite frankly, it's an embarrassment of riches. Here's hoping he makes it - it will be great for him and good for Team USA. UNH can figure it out for a few games...

                        Thank you for the link - please share more if you come across them.
                        Last edited by Dan; 12-02-2018, 10:09 PM.
                        Live Free or Die!!
                        Miami University '03

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Dan View Post
                          I would agree with those who think this UNH team has been enjoyable to watch - much more so than last seasons - due to how they're playing the game and a few exciting individuals/storylines (Robinson, Gildon and Pierson). Unfortunately, I came to make a similar point Chuck to the one just made and I'm not sure I see any corner being turned (at least not yet)...

                          After watching last year's group start 5-0-0/6-1-1, I can't share the conviction that this team or program has turned the corner based on their recent 1-1-2 stretch against a mediocre Miami team and a good, solid PC group. The close games and ties are nothing new (neither are the few and far between victories). And as Chuck states, with scoring down - close games are much more prevelamt these days, I need to see UNH start winning these games on a regular basis before I'm convinced this year is actually any different than last year...

                          UNH went 2-11-6 in one-goal (or less) games last year and 5-14-6 in games decided by two or less. This year the Wildcats are 1-4-5 in one-goal or tie games and 1-6-5 in contests with a differential of two-goals or less.

                          Conventional wisdom would tell you that close game W-L decisions would even out over the long run - and that seems to be the hope here. However, I think the question on the other side of the coin is completely fair - why aren't these games evening out? Why do the close losses just keep piling up, instead?

                          In 29 0-1 goal games over the past two years (analytical stats would suggest UNH should be around .500 in those games), UNH has won just three! Keeping games close hasn't been UNH's problem the last handful of years. Winning games has been the problem - and unfortunately, not much has changed in that regard. I am happy to hear Souza acknowledge this fact - they need to start winning these close games at least half the time to show progress. They're not right now and there is a clear reason...

                          They need to start scoring. If you can't score goals you cannot win. They managed two goals total this weekend versus Providence. I do believe the D and goaltending is much improved - but unless they can balance that with some goals it really doesn't matter much. UNH currently ranks 51st in scoring at 2.07 GPG - UNH losing a close game 2- or 3-1 is more a sign of their issues, to me at least, than much progress...

                          ---

                          If UNH is making progress than they should be expecting to sweep a mid-level Dartmouth squad. I certainly don't expect that to happen. This series has split written all over it - which would send UNH to the break with three wins and a total of four in its previous 365 days...

                          Dartmouth has been a jekyll and hyde group this season. They've posted big wins over Harvard, Yale, Cornell and Quinnipiac, but also disappointing losses to Brown, UVM (and getting walked by Princeton, 7-1). They've allowed four or more goals in four of their eight games (+6 in an EX loss to the USNTDP) and two or fewer in the other four...

                          I'd guess UNH will play their two hard-working, competitive and close games - with Dartmouth showing up one-night and less so the next. Split.

                          Dartmouth is led by their top line and the duo of Grabner and Foreman. The second line features FR O'Connor and rounds out much of their offense. Defensively they're solid, with streaky goaltending. After allowing 13 goals in their first two games of the season (19 in 3 of you count their EX), the Big Green have allowed just 14 in their past six (5 in one of those games). Goals will once again he at a premium if UNH expects to have any success...

                          ---

                          Props to those who have backed Gildon after his play was mischatactetized earlier in the thread. The reality about the two goals that were discussed is that the first was a behind the play change that led to a cherry-picked breakaway (not Gildon getting beat), while the second was (as DB correctly pointed out) a choice between a game-ending ENG (scored from in front of him) or extending the game (under difficult circumstances) so his team could have a chance...

                          He's been easily playing 30+ minutes all season - and last night he (and Wyse) probably played 45 or more...
                          I do not get it; please explain. Why should UNH wins in 1- and 2-goal games "even out" over time based on "analytical stats" (whatever those are)? We are not talking about rolling dice here, or games between teams of equal quality. UNH has been not nearly as good as their competition for several years now, so why should they win as many 1- and 2-goal games as they lose?

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Snively65 View Post
                            I do not get it; please explain. Why should UNH wins in 1- and 2-goal games "even out" over time based on "analytical stats" (whatever those are)? We are not talking about rolling dice here, or games between teams of equal quality. UNH has been not nearly as good as their competition for several years now, so why should they win as many 1- and 2-goal games as they lose?
                            No, I agree - that's the point I'm also trying to make...

                            In general close games would even out quite often as comparable teams would be likely to play and split close games. BUT when one team continues to rack up close losses and fails to win anywhere near their share one would be wise to look at the possible reasons why...

                            I don't begrudge anyone who takes optimism out of close results for UNH, but as they continue to lose it leads me to believe they're still missing something dramatic. So what is causing them to lose the vast majority of these games, when in general teams would be expected to split the close ones? To use your words it becomes clear that despite the close contests UNH 'simply hasn't been as good as their opponents'...

                            With the biggest problem being an inability to score goals. The team defense can keep them in games, but they can't score so they lose (or sometimes manage to tie). Meaning I (for one) look at recent results as more of the same and expect more of the same - close losses or ties, rather than seeing recent results as a sign that the tide is turning as others do...
                            Last edited by Dan; 12-02-2018, 10:25 PM.
                            Live Free or Die!!
                            Miami University '03

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Chuck Murray View Post
                              I honestly can't believe I just wasted 5 minutes of my life reading that insta-coach marketing tripe.

                              e.cat - you do realize UNH is mired in more than just a "losing streak", right??? Technically, there is no "losing streak" - there is one (1) loss in a row as we speak. We are talking about long-term program deterioration. I'm not sure if you've noticed … but as of (very early) last March, there are no longer any (0) players in the UNH program who can say they remember playing for a winning UNH team, or one that played any truly meaningful games. As recently as five years ago, despite the program's obvious slippage over the previous decade, you could still at least point to mostly winning teams, frequently making trips to Boston and/or the D-1 tourney.

                              No more.

                              Now, those of us who dare to dream, hope and pray UNH will somehow make the 8 team HE Tourney field. I've predicted they won't, but I really hope I'm proven wrong. But let's say they do finish 8th, or 7th, or even 6th in what appears to be a down year in Hockey East. What happens next? Two and out on the road, or maybe a 3 game series before the season wraps up short of Boston yet again? Would that mark the start of the turnaround? Maybe … depending on how they follow it up next season, likely without Gildon. And who's to say that Wyse decides a free agent/AHL offer isn't better than the current situation in Durham? Good luck with that.

                              For this program to truly turn around, there will need to be an accumulation of a critical mass of talented players who will lift the UNH program off the bottom of the league. That's the reality of where we are, right now. I don't see that accumulation happening yet, nor has the "coach 'em up" scenario yet shown any true traction. That can all change. I just don't see that it's happened (or changed) yet, and I don't see any big wave of incoming recruiting success taking shape, either. I wish I could say that I did … but I don't.

                              For those who prefer to be optimistic and see things through rose-colored glasses … go for it, you have every right to be a fan however you see fit. Remember, 15-20 years ago, I was on here regularly pooh-poohing the gathering narrative that Coach Umile couldn't win the really big games … until it eventually got to the point where that was virtually undeniable. So I've been (badly) wrong before, and I'll be wrong again. I don't claim to be clairvoyant. These are opinions, based on what I hope is objective analysis and experience.

                              So if you disagree, e-cat (or anyone else) …. why not try to explain exactly why you disagree? What specifically do you see that tells you the UNH program is turning around now? Blind faith … or something concrete?

                              As the adage goes … don't pee on my shoes, and then try to tell me it's raining …
                              Hey, Chuck, it is right there under Part I, Self Awareness: "Only when losing becomes the norm should you CONSIDER (my caps ) restructuring ASPECTS (again, my caps) of your program." :-)

                              Also, Blind Faith was a great super group with their one album.
                              Last edited by Snively65; 12-02-2018, 10:31 PM.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Dan View Post
                                No, I agree - that's the point I'm also trying to make...

                                In general close games would even out quite often as comparable teams would be likely to play and split close games. BUT when one team continues to rack up close losses and fails to win anywhere near their share one would be wise to look at the possible reasons why...

                                I don't begrudge anyone who takes optimism out of close results for UNH, but as they continue to lose it leads me to believe they're still missing something dramatic. So what is causing them to lose the vast majority of these games, when in general teams would be expected to split the close ones? To use your words it becomes clear that despite the close contests UNH 'simply hasn't been as good as their opponents'...

                                With the biggest problem being an inability to score goals. The team defense can keep them in games, but they can't score so they lose (or sometimes manage to tie). Meaning I (for one) look at recent results and expect more of the same - close losses or ties, rather than seeing recent results as a sign that the tide is turning as others do...
                                Got it; your real meaning got lost on me in the forest. However, I think that you must be wearing rose-colored glasses, too, if you think that UNH should split this weekend, given that Dartmouth is 30 in PWR vs UNH at 49, not to mention the number of UNH players on the shelf with injuries.

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