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  • Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

    Originally posted by Snively65 View Post
    Hey, Chuck, it is right there under Part I, Self Awareness: "Only when losing becomes the norm should you CONSIDER (my caps ) restructuring ASPECTS (again, my caps) of your program." :-)

    Also, Blind Faith was a great super group with their one album.
    Something must change....somebody holds the key...well I'm near the end..and just ain't got the time....and I'm wasted and I cant' find my way home.....seems fitting at times.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VLeZvv1EhYo
    Here we go 'Cats!!

    Comment


    • Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

      Originally posted by Snively65 View Post
      Hey, Chuck, it is right there under Part I, Self Awareness: "Only when losing becomes the norm should you CONSIDER (my caps ) restructuring ASPECTS (again, my caps) of your program." :-)

      Also, Blind Faith was a great super group with their one album.
      Originally posted by HockeyRef View Post
      Something must change....somebody holds the key...well I'm near the end..and just ain't got the time....and I'm wasted and I cant' find my way home.....seems fitting at times.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VLeZvv1EhYo
      Gotta admit, I was wondering who would pick up on the "Blind Faith" thing. You guys are on your games, kudos!
      Sworn Enemy of the Perpetually Offended
      Montreal Expos Forever ...

      Comment


      • Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

        Originally posted by Snively65 View Post
        I do not get it; please explain. Why should UNH wins in 1- and 2-goal games "even out" over time based on "analytical stats" (whatever those are)? We are not talking about rolling dice here, or games between teams of equal quality. UNH has been not nearly as good as their competition for several years now, so why should they win as many 1- and 2-goal games as they lose?
        Originally posted by Dan View Post
        No, I agree - that's the point I'm also trying to make...

        In general close games would even out quite often as comparable teams would be likely to play and split close games. BUT when one team continues to rack up close losses and fails to win anywhere near their share one would be wise to look at the possible reasons why...

        I don't begrudge anyone who takes optimism out of close results for UNH, but as they continue to lose it leads me to believe they're still missing something dramatic. So what is causing them to lose the vast majority of these games, when in general teams would be expected to split the close ones? To use your words it becomes clear that despite the close contests UNH 'simply hasn't been as good as their opponents'...

        With the biggest problem being an inability to score goals. The team defense can keep them in games, but they can't score so they lose (or sometimes manage to tie). Meaning I (for one) look at recent results as more of the same and expect more of the same - close losses or ties, rather than seeing recent results as a sign that the tide is turning as others do...
        The really scary possibility here is that UNH may actually be overachieving in this run of close losses. Certainly, no one here is questioning their effort. It's also quite possible (I'd say downright likely) that opponents are seeing them as a weak opponent, and not putting out 100% of their own best effort as a result … at least until the result might be in jeopardy - like on Saturday night - and then they hit a gear that UNH simply does not possess to eke out the win in the end. I thought I saw a stat in today's Seacoast Online that said UNH was 0-3-2 this year when taking a lead into the 3rd period. That seems pretty consistent with the scenario I've outlined here.
        Sworn Enemy of the Perpetually Offended
        Montreal Expos Forever ...

        Comment


        • Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

          Originally posted by Chuck Murray View Post
          I honestly can't believe I just wasted 5 minutes of my life reading that insta-coach marketing tripe.

          e.cat - you do realize UNH is mired in more than just a "losing streak", right??? Technically, there is no "losing streak" - there is one (1) loss in a row as we speak. We are talking about long-term program deterioration. I'm not sure if you've noticed … but as of (very early) last March, there are no longer any (0) players in the UNH program who can say they remember playing for a winning UNH team, or one that played any truly meaningful games. As recently as five years ago, despite the program's obvious slippage over the previous decade, you could still at least point to mostly winning teams, frequently making trips to Boston and/or the D-1 tourney.

          No more.

          Now, those of us who dare to dream, hope and pray UNH will somehow make the 8 team HE Tourney field. I've predicted they won't, but I really hope I'm proven wrong. But let's say they do finish 8th, or 7th, or even 6th in what appears to be a down year in Hockey East. What happens next? Two and out on the road, or maybe a 3 game series before the season wraps up short of Boston yet again? Would that mark the start of the turnaround? Maybe … depending on how they follow it up next season, likely without Gildon. And who's to say that Wyse decides a free agent/AHL offer isn't better than the current situation in Durham? Good luck with that.

          For this program to truly turn around, there will need to be an accumulation of a critical mass of talented players who will lift the UNH program off the bottom of the league. That's the reality of where we are, right now. I don't see that accumulation happening yet, nor has the "coach 'em up" scenario yet shown any true traction. That can all change. I just don't see that it's happened (or changed) yet, and I don't see any big wave of incoming recruiting success taking shape, either. I wish I could say that I did … but I don't.

          For those who prefer to be optimistic and see things through rose-colored glasses … go for it, you have every right to be a fan however you see fit. Remember, 15-20 years ago, I was on here regularly pooh-poohing the gathering narrative that Coach Umile couldn't win the really big games … until it eventually got to the point where that was virtually undeniable. So I've been (badly) wrong before, and I'll be wrong again. I don't claim to be clairvoyant. These are opinions, based on what I hope is objective analysis and experience.

          So if you disagree, e-cat (or anyone else) …. why not try to explain exactly why you disagree? What specifically do you see that tells you the UNH program is turning around now? Blind faith … or something concrete?

          As the adage goes … don't pee on my shoes, and then try to tell me it's raining …
          Talent is important but you can't win on talent alone. Turning this thing around falls squarely in Souza's lap. He may not have a team full players who have played on a UNH winning team but Souza himself was a WINNER at UNH! I don't know about his pro career but I remember walking out of the Whit and turning to my wife and saying "this team never loses at home" during his tenure as a player.

          I have not weighed in yet on whether or not I think this team has turned around yet. Robinson is solid IMHO and good teams are built from the goalie out, right? So that's a good start! As has been mentioned before by Dan and also by Souza is the lack of scoring. Doh!! That's obvious! They lack a go to scorer that can come with the big timely goal a la Bobby Butler or Haydar or Hislop or Clark or Cox! Vela came up with a big goal against Miami but he is no Butler or any of the others mentioned above.

          Injuries are not helping right now and that certainly is going to be a factor moving forward. I'll reserve judgement on this year's team for now but I am beginning to think my over/under was a bit too optimistic!
          UNH Hockey: You can check out any time you like but you can never leave!

          Comment


          • Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

            Originally posted by e.cat View Post
            Talent is important but you can't win on talent alone. Turning this thing around falls squarely in Souza's lap. He may not have a team full players who have played on a UNH winning team but Souza himself was a WINNER at UNH! I don't know about his pro career but I remember walking out of the Whit and turning to my wife and saying "this team never loses at home" during his tenure as a player.

            I have not weighed in yet on whether or not I think this team has turned around yet. Robinson is solid IMHO and good teams are built from the goalie out, right? So that's a good start! As has been mentioned before by Dan and also by Souza is the lack of scoring. Doh!! That's obvious! They lack a go to scorer that can come with the big timely goal a la Bobby Butler or Haydar or Hislop or Clark or Cox! Vela came up with a big goal against Miami but he is no Butler or any of the others mentioned above.

            Injuries are not helping right now and that certainly is going to be a factor moving forward. I'll reserve judgement on this year's team for now but I am beginning to think my over/under was a bit too optimistic!
            e.cat I must join you on admitting that my over/under was too optimistic. Worse than that was my prediction of 115 goals. Ha. Saw RB and he didn't appear to be wearing any braces or slings. TK was without his sling but didn't see the other walking wounded.
            Must speak up and support HR comments on 18's performance on defense. He did himself proud in a limited role. and yes DH did get out in the third period. Perhaps a 15 second shift. hindsite says dress him as the extra skater should all others return. They don't often use the forward extra very much and this has really come to bite us.
            Still love the effort across the board. How did we even stay with PC all weekend? Effort by all who dressed. If you could see their faces as they fight for everything. This is a change. Will not replace low goal scoring but is as important as skill.

            Comment


            • Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

              Originally posted by Chuck Murray View Post
              ...For those who prefer to be optimistic and see things through rose-colored glasses …
              Ummm... blue tinted, please?
              I will not be out cheered in my own building.

              Comment


              • Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

                Originally posted by Chuck Murray View Post
                Now, those of us who dare to dream, hope and pray UNH will somehow make the 8 team HE Tourney field. I've predicted they won't, but I really hope I'm proven wrong. But let's say they do finish 8th, or 7th, or even 6th in what appears to be a down year in Hockey East. What happens next? Two and out on the road, or maybe a 3 game series before the season wraps up short of Boston yet again? Would that mark the start of the turnaround? Maybe … depending on how they follow it up next season, likely without Gildon. And who's to say that Wyse decides a free agent/AHL offer isn't better than the current situation in Durham? Good luck with that.
                Right now we are (somehow) in 8th place. Losing two in a row would be a disappointment, winning one is pretty much meeting current low level expectations. Winning the series would be positive and show that we are progressing.
                I will not be out cheered in my own building.

                Comment


                • Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

                  Originally posted by Darius View Post
                  Right now we are (somehow) in 8th place. Losing two in a row would be a disappointment, winning one is pretty much meeting current low level expectations. Winning the series would be positive and show that we are progressing.
                  Looking at the current HE standings ... it's hard not to think the bottom four are pretty nailed-on, even this early (and yes, my favorite coach fraud Luce Canaan is very much still in that mix). So I figure UNH has a 25% chance of emerging from that pile of muck, nipping the 8th seed ... and then getting crushed by (gulp) the Amherst Red Army team.

                  Finishing 8th instead of 11th ... maybe that's a small nudge up the ladder, balanced by this likely being a down year for Hockey East. But if your best 1-2 defensemen are out the door before next season starts ... ouch.

                  It's also interesting (at least to me) to see Coach Souza giving such heavy minutes to Gildon and Wyse in an "emergency" situation this early in the season. Can't imagine his predecessor would have done that, at least not in early December (despite the deserved "Champs of ___ember" tag). Souza certainly isn't coaching without a degree of urgency (which I think is good for us), so maybe the complacency further up the food chain hasn't trickled down to him (yet?). That's definitely not the move a coach with an assured future usually makes.
                  Sworn Enemy of the Perpetually Offended
                  Montreal Expos Forever ...

                  Comment


                  • Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

                    Originally posted by Chuck Murray View Post
                    Looking at the current HE standings ... it's hard not to think the bottom four are pretty nailed-on, even this early (and yes, my favorite coach fraud Luce Canaan is very much still in that mix). So I figure UNH has a 25% chance of emerging from that pile of muck, nipping the 8th seed ... and then getting crushed by (gulp) the Amherst Red Army team.

                    Finishing 8th instead of 11th ... maybe that's a small nudge up the ladder, balanced by this likely being a down year for Hockey East. But if your best 1-2 defensemen are out the door before next season starts ... ouch.

                    It's also interesting (at least to me) to see Coach Souza giving such heavy minutes to Gildon and Wyse in an "emergency" situation this early in the season. Can't imagine his predecessor would have done that, at least not in early December (despite the deserved "Champs of ___ember" tag). Souza certainly isn't coaching without a degree of urgency (which I think is good for us), so maybe the complacency further up the food chain hasn't trickled down to him (yet?). That's definitely not the move a coach with an assured future usually makes.
                    Souza is not fooling around here. If you read his quote in the Seacoast online, his remark regarding the ties and "almost winning the game" I thought were telling about how he feels it's going...I believe he's dead serious about creating a team that can compete a full 60 and win games. Whether or not he has the horses to do that right now, I'm not going to be the judge of that, but, he's looking for that effort from them and I think we are seeing that attempt to do so. Here's the quote:

                    “Other than getting the occasional pat on the back, no one really cares if you’re close,” Souza said. “I certainly don’t.” So much for 'complacency'...

                    ...and Chuck, just a q, who else is he going to give those big minutes to? He doesn't have much of a choice right now...maybe I'm reading you wrong but these are urgent times, even this early in the season.
                    Last edited by HockeyRef; 12-03-2018, 01:39 PM.
                    Here we go 'Cats!!

                    Comment


                    • Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

                      Originally posted by Chuck Murray View Post
                      Looking at the current HE standings ... it's hard not to think the bottom four are pretty nailed-on, even this early (and yes, my favorite coach fraud Luce Canaan is very much still in that mix). So I figure UNH has a 25% chance of emerging from that pile of muck, nipping the 8th seed ... and then getting crushed by (gulp) the Amherst Red Army team.
                      #1 ranked Amherst Red Army team.
                      I will not be out cheered in my own building.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Snively65 View Post
                        However, I think that you must be wearing rose-colored glasses, too, if you think that UNH should split this weekend, given that Dartmouth is 30 in PWR vs UNH at 49, not to mention the number of UNH players on the shelf with injuries.
                        It's more a reflection of Dartmouth than anything else - they've struggled tremendously with consistency this year...

                        http://collegehockeystats.net/1819/schedules/darm

                        Score seven against Harvard one game and just one against Princeton the next. Blow out Quinnipiac one night, surrender four goals and lose to Brown the next, followed by shutting out Yale. Beat Cornell on a Friday, but drop points against Colgate on Saturday...

                        If UNH plays as they've been playing, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them the better team one night and not the next. Or vice versa...
                        Live Free or Die!!
                        Miami University '03

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by HockeyRef View Post
                          Surprised no one is talking about the most likely fact that Max Gildon could (will?) be playing for the USA in the upcoming World Jr. Championships....if he is selected he would miss potentially the Bentley/Merrimack/Yale games. It would be a great honor for him but we will of course miss him. Saw this on Twitter tonight talking about the possible lineups:

                          https://thepuckauthority.com/2019-am...oster-preview/
                          Stutzle is playing U20 for Germany in the Division 1A WJC Tournament that starts next week in Fussen, Germany - competing for a chance to eat at the big table next winter...
                          Live Free or Die!!
                          Miami University '03

                          Comment


                          • Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

                            Originally posted by Dan View Post
                            Stutzle is playing U20 for Germany in the Division 1A WJC Tournament that starts next week in Fussen, Germany - competing for a chance to eat at the big table next winter...
                            Gotta get this player here...no question about it...
                            Here we go 'Cats!!

                            Comment


                            • Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

                              Originally posted by Dan View Post
                              It's more a reflection of Dartmouth than anything else - they've struggled tremendously with consistency this year...

                              http://collegehockeystats.net/1819/schedules/darm

                              Score seven against Harvard one game and just one against Princeton the next. Blow out Quinnipiac one night, surrender four goals and lose to Brown the next, followed by shutting out Yale. Beat Cornell on a Friday, but drop points against Colgate on Saturday...

                              If UNH plays as they've been playing, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them the better team one night and not the next. Or vice versa...
                              Agreed. Here's a scenario where UNH's baseline consistent total effort should be rewarded in at least one of the games, against an inconsistent opponent that's mailed it in against low-end competition previously.
                              Sworn Enemy of the Perpetually Offended
                              Montreal Expos Forever ...

                              Comment


                              • Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity

                                Originally posted by Chuck Murray View Post
                                4 wins, 22 losses, 10 ties

                                That, ladies and gentlemen, is what our UNH Wildcats have posted as a record since after its last quality win, which (as touched upon by others earlier this weekend) was on this same weekend last year, a 1-0 home win vs. Providence. And that includes a win in their very next game, a rare midweek road win at RPI. So before you jump to any conclusions that I'm not being charitable with the start/end date for this comparison … I could have said the last 35 games were 3-22-10. So to paraphrase the immortal words of the Bill Murray character in Caddyshack … well, at least we've got that going for us.

                                For fans of UNH Hockey history, I call your attention to the "Dark Ages" of the mid-80's, which is the time period some of us have been cautioning the program has been sliding (and more recently collapsing) towards. Coinciding with the first few years of Hockey East, and the dreaded Interlocking schedule of those early HE days with the WCHA (I think; right Greg?), I'll post the three worst years of that stretch, which played out as follows:

                                1985-1986: 5 wins, 29 losses, 3 ties
                                1986-1987: 8 wins, 27 losses, 3 ties
                                1987-1988: 7 wins, 20 losses, 3 ties (seems off?)

                                http://www.hockeydb.com/stte/u.-of-n...hire-8644.html

                                We can discuss the relative merits of the current program with the state of the UNH program 30 years back, and I guess my sense is, this team (and last year's) is a better team than those back in the mid-'80's. (
                                Have to disagree with you Chuck. The schedule was a lot tougher back then than now. Yes indeed, Hockey East had an interlocking schedule with the WCHA and the results weren't pretty. I have bad memories of those years and to confirm them I had to go back to my UNH Hockey media guides that I have stashed away in my home office. In 1985-1986, UNH started 1-17-0, won a total of five games, and not one against a WCHA opponent. And there were no cupcake OOC opponents. That year they had one non-league game, against Yale, and lost 6-3. The next year they started out a bit better but then won one of their last 17 games. They won one game against a WCHA opponent. The third year? Just as bad, although they took two WCHA games. The schedule was not forgiving. There were no Bentleys, Sacred Hearts or AICs on the schedule. Basically you had to be ready to play every night and UNH was nowhere up to the task.

                                However, over those three years they actually had three players who had NHL careers - Steve Leach, Jeff Lazaro and Kevin Dean. By the '87-'88 season they had recruited a few guys who were productive players and the year after that they recruited a great freshman class that helped them reach the HE semifinals in Kullen's last season and to the NCAAs when they were seniors. The bottom line is that a rebound can be done. UNH proved it back then and UMass is doing it now. My sense is that you need to recruit kids who are going to stick around for three or four years. Having a bunch of drafted guys who leave after two years does the program little. Sure, great to have them, but give me kids who are invested in the program, stay four years, earn a college degree, and become loyal alums. Using college as a one year whistle stop just doesn't send me.

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