POTUS 45.39: Dick Pictures for Everyone!!!!!!!

[dxmnkd316]

Re: POTUS 45.39: Dick Pictures for Everyone!!!!!!!

If you have #3, you don't need #1 and #2.

Unfortunately, #3 is maddeningly elusive and may not arrive before petroleum runs out. If that happens, it's back to subsistence farming for nearly all of us....

If I had to guess, in a race between storage and fusion (or some other historical tech breakthrough), I’d bet hard on the tech over batteries.

Another big hog is transmission. 25% of all electricity generated in the US is lost to transmission. If we could decentralize the grid it does two things: make it more secure and reduce transmission costs. Obvious that is balanced out by capital investment. So I’m guessing a hybrid approach would work best.

Problem is, efficiency in generation is realized the larger you build. So while decentralization seems like a great idea, it makes it more expensive for the central generation plants to both generate and distribute. Though, maybe that’s no longer an issue if we’ve advanced home generation that far it becomes economical on a large scale.

[LynahFan]

Re: POTUS 45.39: Dick Pictures for Everyone!!!!!!!

If I had to guess, in a race between storage and fusion (or some other historical tech breakthrough), I’d bet hard on the tech over batteries.

Another big hog is transmission. 25% of all electricity generated in the US is lost to transmission. If we could decentralize the grid it does two things: make it more secure and reduce transmission costs. Obvious that is balanced out by capital investment. So I’m guessing a hybrid approach would work best.

Problem is, efficiency in generation is realized the larger you build. So while decentralization seems like a great idea, it makes it more expensive for the central generation plants to both generate and distribute. Though, maybe that’s no longer an issue if we’ve advanced home generation that far it becomes economical on a large scale.

Exactly. I don't foresee decentralized power plants ever being cheap enough or efficient enough to compete with huge, centralized plants. Whatever technological/engineering improvements come along to improve the decentralized generation plants would also be able to be applied (in bulk) to the centralized plants, so you're always going to be running behind.

Even with fusion, though, we kinda need to solve the storage problem to meet our transportation needs. I'm not sure there's enough lithium on the planet to turn every vehicle into a Tesla....

[mookie1995]

Re: POTUS 45.39: Dick Pictures for Everyone!!!!!!!

Exactly. I don't foresee decentralized power plants ever being cheap enough or efficient enough to compete with huge, centralized plants. Whatever technological/engineering improvements come along to improve the decentralized generation plants would also be able to be applied (in bulk) to the centralized plants, so you're always going to be running behind.

Even with fusion, though, we kinda need to solve the storage problem to meet our transportation needs. I'm not sure there's enough lithium on the planet to turn every vehicle into a Tesla....

couple months ago the client had a visitor claim that there was in fact enough to run every car on earth electric. he also said as one parks the cars could run neighborhood houses. mookie asked if it was so cheap why wouldn't the saudis just buy it all up and let it sit. the dude said recycling existing batteries would be cheap enough to thwart that.
mookie shrugged 'whatever' if it was so cost effective now, whyn't everyone do it.
dude was saying too many 'powers that be' like the status quo. germany for example has so much tied up in internal combustion engines that if all this hubbub of moving away from fossil fuels came to fruition they would be crushed.

[dxmnkd316]

Re: POTUS 45.39: Dick Pictures for Everyone!!!!!!!

It might well be that there is enough. But maybe a fraction of that is mineable and even a fraction of that is commercially viable. Chalk it up to a moron or acid.

[5mn_Major]

Re: POTUS 45.39: Dick Pictures for Everyone!!!!!!!

Solar and wind tech is there already, but, today without storage you are literally generating electricity that can't be used or isn't there when you need it.

Sicatoka, 'storage on a mass scale is 50 years out' and you're on the board of an energy company? I find that hard to believe based on current renewables implementations - see the article below.

Regardless, I don't listen to you energy pessimists. Here's a post from just a few years back:

Solar-based energy collectors (whether that means PV cells, wind, or biofuel) will NEVER be able to produce energy at the rate (i.e. at the power) that human civilization currently consumes it. This is an objective fact. Saying, "but we have to do something!" We. Will. Not. Get. There. regardless of how soon we start investing or how much we invest. You cannot invest your way around, over, or through the laws of physics.

We have two choices:

1. Accept that in 100 years we will not have an energy supply capable of producing the 16 million MW that a modern, civilized population of 7 billion people consumes. Either the population or our lifestyle (and likely both) will experience a massive decline as society adjusts to getting by on the meager scraps provided by solar-based energy.

2. Invest in non-solar based alternative energy (nuclear/fusion) and hope for a breakthrough that keeps us away from option #1.

That's it. It's not pleasant to contemplate, but trying to paper over this choice by dreaming that biofuel, solar, and wind can solve the problem is wishful thinking and willful ignorance of reality.

By 2025, Xcel Energy says it will increase its share of renewable energy to almost 55 percent. Bids for new projects have wind+storage energy in Colorado as cheaper than energy from the state’s existing coal plants; solar+storage energy as cheaper than 75 percent of the state’s coal energy.

https://www.vo*****/energy-and-envir...-energy-future

[5mn_Major]

Re: POTUS 45.39: Dick Pictures for Everyone!!!!!!!

Solar and wind tech is there already, but, today without storage you are literally generating electricity that can't be used or isn't there when you need it.

Sicatoka, 'storage on a mass scale is 50 years out' and you're on the board of an energy company? I find that hard to believe based on current renewables implementations - see the article below.

Regardless, I don't listen to you energy pessimists. Here's a post from just a few years back:

Solar-based energy collectors (whether that means PV cells, wind, or biofuel) will NEVER be able to produce energy at the rate (i.e. at the power) that human civilization currently consumes it. This is an objective fact. Saying, "but we have to do something!" We. Will. Not. Get. There. regardless of how soon we start investing or how much we invest. You cannot invest your way around, over, or through the laws of physics.

We have two choices:

1. Accept that in 100 years we will not have an energy supply capable of producing the 16 million MW that a modern, civilized population of 7 billion people consumes. Either the population or our lifestyle (and likely both) will experience a massive decline as society adjusts to getting by on the meager scraps provided by solar-based energy.

2. Invest in non-solar based alternative energy (nuclear/fusion) and hope for a breakthrough that keeps us away from option #1.

That's it. It's not pleasant to contemplate, but trying to paper over this choice by dreaming that biofuel, solar, and wind can solve the problem is wishful thinking and willful ignorance of reality.

By 2025, Xcel Energy says it will increase its share of renewable energy to almost 55 percent. Bids for new projects have wind+storage energy in Colorado as cheaper than energy from the state’s existing coal plants; solar+storage energy as cheaper than 75 percent of the state’s coal energy.

https://www.vo*****/energy-and-envir...-energy-future

[LynahFan]

Sicatoka, 'storage on a mass scale is 50 years out' and you're on the board of an energy company? I find that hard to believe based on current renewables implementations - see the article below.

Regardless, I don't listen to you energy pessimists. Here's a post from just a few years back:



By 2025, Xcel Energy says it will increase its share of renewable energy to almost 55 percent. Bids for new projects have wind+storage energy in Colorado as cheaper than energy from the state’s existing coal plants; solar+storage energy as cheaper than 75 percent of the state’s coal energy.

https://www.vo*****/energy-and-envir...-energy-future

Proof by prediction? That's a new one on me....

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: POTUS 45.39: Dick Pictures for Everyone!!!!!!!

Exactly. I don't foresee decentralized power plants ever being cheap enough or efficient enough to compete with huge, centralized plants. Whatever technological/engineering improvements come along to improve the decentralized generation plants would also be able to be applied (in bulk) to the centralized plants, so you're always going to be running behind.

Even with fusion, though, we kinda need to solve the storage problem to meet our transportation needs. I'm not sure there's enough lithium on the planet to turn every vehicle into a Tesla....

You want to decentralize start putting solar panels on every home and use that energy to run the home. Obviously that will not work all the time so they'll be hooked to the center but the center will not be providing everything.

[The Sicatoka]

Re: POTUS 45.39: Dick Pictures for Everyone!!!!!!!

Sicatoka, 'storage on a mass scale is 50 years out' and you're on the board of an energy company?

I stand by 50 years, stand alone, broad implementation, with no tax breaks or subsidies to aid it. (If you don't believe solar is subsidized, look at the first table in your link and explain why there are 152 solar bids otherwise.)

Next, again look at the first table in that article. It is 4 to 10 times the cost to do renewables with storage than combustion. That will come down with time, and faster than we'd believe, but again to get that broadly implemented takes time and capital. I'd speculate ... about fifty years.

[The Sicatoka]

Re: POTUS 45.39: Dick Pictures for Everyone!!!!!!!

You want to decentralize start putting solar panels on every home and use that energy to run the home. Obviously that will not work all the time so they'll be hooked to the center but the center will not be providing everything.

What incentive does the power company have to service your house if you have solar on the roof? They'll put in significant infrastructure to only see their meter turn (meaning revenue) on a few days. The power companies/cooperatives have to protect themselves and their investments.

Don't be surprised if you start to see power companies adopt pricing structures like ISPs or cell phone providers, meaning not based on just consumption, but on a combination of "connection charge" (with a based level of use included) plus an overage charge for usage beyond the base level. Think like your cell phone: $40 bucks a line for 4 GB, and if you go over 4 GB you get hammered at like $15/GB. How do I know this? No comment.

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: POTUS 45.39: Dick Pictures for Everyone!!!!!!!

What incentive does the power company have to service your house if you have solar on the roof? They'll put in significant infrastructure to only see their meter turn (meaning revenue) on a few days. The power companies/cooperatives have to protect themselves and their investments.

Don't be surprised if you start to see power companies adopt pricing structures like ISPs or cell phone providers, meaning not based on just consumption, but on a combination of "connection charge" (with a based level of use included) plus an overage charge for usage beyond the base level. Think like your cell phone: $40 bucks a line for 4 GB, and if you go over 4 GB you get hammered at like $15/GB. How do I know this? No comment.

That's fine. I'm expecting them to charge for the hook up. It would still be cheaper in the long run and cleaner. This is what government is for.

[unofan]

I stand by 50 years, stand alone, broad implementation, with no tax breaks or subsidies to aid it. (If you don't believe solar is subsidized, look at the first table in your link and explain why there are 152 solar bids otherwise.)

Next, again look at the first table in that article. It is 4 to 10 times the cost to do renewables with storage than combustion. That will come down with time, and faster than we'd believe, but again to get that broadly implemented takes time and capital. I'd speculate ... about fifty years.

If you don't believe fossil fuels are subsidized, I have a bridge to sell you.

[unofan]

What incentive does the power company have to service your house if you have solar on the roof? They'll put in significant infrastructure to only see their meter turn (meaning revenue) on a few days. The power companies/cooperatives have to protect themselves and their investments.

Don't be surprised if you start to see power companies adopt pricing structures like ISPs or cell phone providers, meaning not based on just consumption, but on a combination of "connection charge" (with a based level of use included) plus an overage charge for usage beyond the base level. Think like your cell phone: $40 bucks a line for 4 GB, and if you go over 4 GB you get hammered at like $15/GB. How do I know this? No comment.

Power companies already charge flat fees. The only question is the ratio of flat fee vs usage fee by customer class.

[The Sicatoka]

Re: POTUS 45.39: Dick Pictures for Everyone!!!!!!!

If you don't believe fossil fuels are subsidized, I have a bridge to sell you.

No argument.

[SJHovey]

Re: POTUS 45.39: Dick Pictures for Everyone!!!!!!!

What incentive does the power company have to service your house if you have solar on the roof? They'll put in significant infrastructure to only see their meter turn (meaning revenue) on a few days. The power companies/cooperatives have to protect themselves and their investments.

Don't be surprised if you start to see power companies adopt pricing structures like ISPs or cell phone providers, meaning not based on just consumption, but on a combination of "connection charge" (with a based level of use included) plus an overage charge for usage beyond the base level. Think like your cell phone: $40 bucks a line for 4 GB, and if you go over 4 GB you get hammered at like $15/GB. How do I know this? No comment.

I'm skeptical of this.

First, a sizable portion (although not a majority) of the electric supply in this country is provided by either municipal or publicly owned power companies, or electric cooperatives (owned by the customers themselves). By definition they are not able to make a profit. The incentive they have to service your house, even if you have solar on your roof, is that "they" are "you." You are selling electricity to yourself.

Second, those power companies that are investor owned are pretty heavily regulated with respect to rates and fees by public service commissions. They operate as a state sponsored monopoly, so whatever direction the state wants to go, they're going to have to go along.