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115th Congress the final chapter: And Gerry Mander as the Speaker.

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  • #76
    Re: 115th Congress the final chapter: And Gerry Mander as the Speaker.

    Originally posted by Handyman View Post

    Well, if Lindsey says so..................

    jfc
    **NOTE: The misleading post above was brought to you by Reynold's Wrap and American Steeples, makers of Crosses.

    Originally Posted by dropthatpuck-Scooby's a lost cause.
    Originally Posted by First Time, Long Time-Always knew you were nothing but a troll.

    Comment


    • #77
      Re: 115th Congress the final chapter: And Gerry Mander as the Speaker.

      "I did not have sexual relations with that Putin"

      Comment


      • #78
        Originally posted by Slap Shot View Post
        "I did not have sexual relations with that Putin"
        which Putin is that?
        CCT '77 & '78
        4 kids
        5 grandsons (BCA 7/09, CJA 5/14, JDL 8/14, JFL 6/16, PJL 7/18)
        1 granddaughter (EML 4/18)

        ”Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both.”
        - Benjamin Franklin

        Banned from the St. Lawrence University Facebook page - March 2016 (But I got better).

        I want to live forever. So far, so good.

        Comment


        • #79
          Re: 115th Congress the final chapter: And Gerry Mander as the Speaker.

          https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...imes&smtyp=cur

          Yet here’s a surprising fact: Even a wave as powerful as those in 2006 or 2010 might not give Democrats control of the House.

          They need only 23 seats to make that happen, which doesn’t seem like a lot. For comparison, in 2006 Democrats picked up 31 seats, and in 2010 Republicans picked up 63.

          What has changed is that the Republican caucus has fled to higher ground.

          Today, there are just nine Republicans who represent districts that tilt toward the Democrats, based on the districts’ voting in the last two presidential elections compared with the country as a whole. There were 24 Republicans in such a precarious position in 2006, 67 such Democrats in 2010 and 90 Democrats in 1994.

          In a wave election, Republicans representing Democratic-tilting districts like these would be projected to lose their re-election bids. They are the figures farther down the slope in the accompanying illustration. (The one all by itself at the bottom, representing Pennsylvania’s Fifth, was sunk by redistricting.)

          Mostly, though, the districts are above sea level. Incumbents who represent even somewhat Republican-leaning districts are generally favored to win re-election, even in a wave election. Waves aren’t necessarily as deadly as you might think.

          This makes it hard to imagine huge Democratic gains, like those the Republicans made in 2010. In past elections, incumbency has been worth around seven points, although that advantage has been declining.

          Republicans have so many safe seats that the Democrats would be expected to gain only 22 seats if they flipped Republican-held districts at a rate equivalent to the waves of 2006 or 2010 (without factoring in the large number of open seats). It would leave them one seat short of a majority.
          Big problem. Big.
          **NOTE: The misleading post above was brought to you by Reynold's Wrap and American Steeples, makers of Crosses.

          Originally Posted by dropthatpuck-Scooby's a lost cause.
          Originally Posted by First Time, Long Time-Always knew you were nothing but a troll.

          Comment


          • #80
            Originally posted by ScoobyDoo View Post
            What the NYT is missing is that gerrymandering only goes so far. You turn a bunch of +2 districts to +5 districts by giving the other side some +20 districts.

            That saves you most of the time, but if you get a national wave, suddenly those +5 districts are now -2 or-3, and you lose them all at once. Races are not completely independent from one another.

            Comment


            • #81
              Re: 115th Congress the final chapter: And Gerry Mander as the Speaker.

              The NYT's took a break from Alan Dershowitz to talk about the sky falling? They suck.
              "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
              -aparch

              "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
              -INCH

              Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
              -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007

              Comment


              • #82
                Originally posted by Handyman View Post
                The NYT's took a break from Alan Dershowitz to talk about the sky falling? They suck.
                They're doing a credible job of sticking more (deserved) knives into Cardinal "Call me Uncle Ted" McCarrick.

                Curiously, the Washington Post is not touching (no pun intended) the Cardinal.
                CCT '77 & '78
                4 kids
                5 grandsons (BCA 7/09, CJA 5/14, JDL 8/14, JFL 6/16, PJL 7/18)
                1 granddaughter (EML 4/18)

                ”Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both.”
                - Benjamin Franklin

                Banned from the St. Lawrence University Facebook page - March 2016 (But I got better).

                I want to live forever. So far, so good.

                Comment


                • #83
                  Re: 115th Congress the final chapter: And Gerry Mander as the Speaker.

                  The Dem backlash against Ocasio-Cortez is getting pretty funny. The Establishment is friggin scared of her and they are getting all their friends on tv and in the papers to make sure she doesnt get too popular.
                  "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
                  -aparch

                  "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
                  -INCH

                  Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
                  -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007

                  Comment


                  • #84
                    Re: 115th Congress the final chapter: And Gerry Mander as the Speaker.


                    "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
                    -aparch

                    "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
                    -INCH

                    Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
                    -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007

                    Comment


                    • #85
                      Re: 115th Congress the final chapter: And Gerry Mander as the Speaker.


                      "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
                      -aparch

                      "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
                      -INCH

                      Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
                      -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007

                      Comment


                      • #86
                        Originally posted by Handyman View Post
                        The Dem backlash against Ocasio-Cortez is getting pretty funny. The Establishment is friggin scared of her and they are getting all their friends on tv and in the papers to make sure she doesnt get too popular.
                        It’s good to have a big tent party but I’m not sure her positions are a winning platform for the Deomocrats nationally.

                        Comment


                        • #87
                          Re: 115th Congress the final chapter: And Gerry Mander as the Speaker.

                          Originally posted by ericredaxe View Post
                          It’s good to have a big tent party but I’m not sure her positions are a winning platform for the Deomocrats nationally.
                          She's not trying to win nationally. She's running in a solid D district in NYC.

                          I mean, I know Steve King is an asshat and an embarrassment to the State of Iowa and the entire country, but I don't pretend that he runs a national campaign rather than representing the reddest part of the state.

                          Comment


                          • #88
                            Originally posted by ericredaxe View Post
                            It’s good to have a big tent party but I’m not sure her positions are a winning platform for the Deomocrats nationally.
                            And yet we’ve seen people like Lamb run a populist campaign in a rural area and win, Ocasio won a very blue area on socialism and abolishing ICE appealing to the people who don’t normally vote and beating a guy who has vastly more resources, as well as upsets in states like Nebraska.

                            I think you can win on these issues. But if your candidate is getting outfunded 330 million to under 1 million like say Cynthia Nixon, it’s gonna be an uphill battle. I’m not gonna say all these ideas (especially gun issues) are going to appeal to everyone in every locality but for the most part people want affordable healthcare and a more promising future for their children.
                            Last edited by trixR4kids; 07-19-2018, 11:13 PM.

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                            • #89
                              Re: 115th Congress the final chapter: And Gerry Mander as the Speaker.

                              Originally posted by unofan View Post
                              What the NYT is missing is that gerrymandering only goes so far. You turn a bunch of +2 districts to +5 districts by giving the other side some +20 districts.

                              That saves you most of the time, but if you get a national wave, suddenly those +5 districts are now -2 or-3, and you lose them all at once. Races are not completely independent from one another.
                              Typically stupid article out of the NYT!

                              Your point is correct. A good gerrymander gives you a bunch of 55/45 districts to hold onto. The question for this election remains do Democrats continue to outpace their prior %'s in these Congressional races by double digits or not. And legislative races as well. If they do its going to be extremely difficult to hold the House at least. There's one more congressional special election coming up in Ohio in a couple of weeks. Win or lose if its another +10% or more swing towards the Dems that's a more telling sign IMHO.
                              Legally drunk???? If its "legal", what's the ------- problem?!? - George Carlin

                              Ever notice how everybody who drives slower than you is an idiot, and everybody who drives faster is a maniac? - George Carlin

                              "I've never seen so much reason and bullsh*t contained in ONE MAN."

                              Comment


                              • #90
                                Re: 115th Congress the final chapter: And Gerry Mander as the Speaker.

                                Originally posted by Handyman View Post
                                The Dem backlash against Ocasio-Cortez is getting pretty funny. The Establishment is friggin scared of her and they are getting all their friends on tv and in the papers to make sure she doesnt get too popular.
                                ? - can't say I've seen any freakouts over me and mookie's fellow BU grad except for her idiotic twitter attack on her opponent for being on a 3rd party ballot that he can't get off of by law. Aside from needing to be a bit more seasoned I'm sure she fits that district pretty well.
                                Legally drunk???? If its "legal", what's the ------- problem?!? - George Carlin

                                Ever notice how everybody who drives slower than you is an idiot, and everybody who drives faster is a maniac? - George Carlin

                                "I've never seen so much reason and bullsh*t contained in ONE MAN."

                                Comment

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