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2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

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  • #91
    Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

    To be fair to Scott, he is right that models (like all forecasts) are often inaccurate, especially several days in advance. They are largely based on history and trends, with current conditions factored in. Those trends seem to be going out the window as the planet continues to warm each year, but they do exist for a reason.

    Comment

    • #92
      Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

      Originally posted by FadeToBlack&Gold View Post
      To be fair to Scott, he is right that models (like all forecasts) are often inaccurate, especially several days in advance. They are largely based on history and trends; trends which seem to be going out the window as the planet continues to warm each year. But they do exist for a reason.
      It's like Sabermetrics in baseball... If you look at individual cases, you will find errors... Look at 20 years as a whole, and the accuracy shines through...
      It's never too early to start the Pre-game festivities

      Go Cats!!! GO BLACKHAWKS!

      Cuck the Fubs... Let's Go WHITE SOX!!!

      Wildcat Born, Wildcat Bred....

      Comment

      • #93
        Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

        Originally posted by FadeToBlack&Gold View Post
        To be fair to Scott, he is right that models (like all forecasts) are often inaccurate, especially several days in advance. They are largely based on history and trends, with current conditions factored in. Those trends seem to be going out the window as the planet continues to warm each year, but they do exist for a reason.
        Of course he’s not wrong there. But him being a complete pompous butthole kind of sours the whole thing.
        Code:
        As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
College Hockey 6       College Football 0
BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
        Originally posted by SanTropez
        May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
        Originally posted by bigblue_dl
        I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
        Originally posted by Kepler
        When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
        He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

        Comment

        • #94
          Originally posted by FadeToBlack&Gold View Post
          I knew you'd be right on this.

          Lol

          Comment

          • #95
            Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

            Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post


            I could have added that it hit with 107-kt sustained 120-130 gusts. But then that’s just piling on.
            Should I point out that it was not a "direct hit" as you claimed it was going to be, but passed about 100 miles to the south, which is what I said it was going to do? It was a large storm and they got hit hard, but it was by no means a "direct hit". Also, according to the official observations from Hong Kong, they had sustained winds of 60 knots with a gust to 84 knots in the city. There were unofficial reports of 107 mph winds, not 107 knot winds, but, why should details matter?
            Charter Member of darin's "UML Seven"

            "I just hate Boston College to be perfectly honest'' -Ken Dorsey
            "It's time for my favorite NCAA tradition ... that's right, rooting against BC!" -Bill Simmons

            Comment

            • #96
              Originally posted by ScottK View Post
              Should I point out that it was not a "direct hit" as you claimed it was going to be, but passed about 100 miles to the south, which is what I said it was going to do? It was a large storm and they got hit hard, but it was by no means a "direct hit". Also, according to the official observations from Hong Kong, they had sustained winds of 60 knots with a gust to 84 knots in the city. There were unofficial reports of 107 mph winds, not 107 knot winds, but, why should details matter?
              He never claimed it was going to be a direct hit. He simply posted to watch out for it, because he saw a prediction that had it as a direct hit. You sir, are a tool.

              Comment

              • #97
                Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

                Originally posted by GrinCDXX View Post
                He never claimed it was going to be a direct hit. He simply posted to watch out for it, because he saw a prediction that had it as a direct hit. You sir, are a tool.
                He didn't? You sure?

                Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
                I know this is Atlantic, but watch out for Typhoon Mangkhut. It's currently predicted to have a direct hit on Hong Kong (sideswipe Taiwan) and be well in excess of the equivalent Cat 1. Could be a super typhoon on landfall.

                These are very long-range forecasts but yikes.
                Charter Member of darin's "UML Seven"

                "I just hate Boston College to be perfectly honest'' -Ken Dorsey
                "It's time for my favorite NCAA tradition ... that's right, rooting against BC!" -Bill Simmons

                Comment

                • #98
                  Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

                  Originally posted by ScottK View Post
                  He didn't? You sure?
                  Yes, I'm sure. Saying "it's currently predicted" is not the same thing as claiming it's going to happen. In fact, his use of the word "currently" implicitly acknowledges the presence of uncertainty.

                  edit: And more: "These are very long range forecasts". Why do you think he added that qualification, genius?
                  Last edited by GrinCDXX; 09-17-2018, 11:38 AM.

                  Comment

                  • #99
                    Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

                    Originally posted by GrinCDXX View Post
                    Yes, I'm sure. Saying "it's currently predicted" is not the same thing as claiming it's going to happen. In fact, his use of the word "currently" implicitly acknowledges the presence of uncertainty.

                    edit: And more: "These are very long range forecasts". Why do you think he added that qualification, genius?
                    Except, that it wasn't predicted at all to make a direct hit. He tried to qualify it by saying that one model did, but I also pointed that the model in question wasn't even showing that.
                    Charter Member of darin's "UML Seven"

                    "I just hate Boston College to be perfectly honest'' -Ken Dorsey
                    "It's time for my favorite NCAA tradition ... that's right, rooting against BC!" -Bill Simmons

                    Comment

                    • #100
                      Originally posted by ScottK View Post
                      Except, that it wasn't predicted at all to make a direct hit. He tried to qualify it by saying that one model did, but I also pointed that the model in question wasn't even showing that.
                      Whether or not his post was accurate is beside the point, which is that he didn't claim what you said he claimed.

                      Comment

                      • #101
                        Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

                        Originally posted by GrinCDXX View Post
                        Yes, I'm sure. Saying "it's currently predicted" is not the same thing as claiming it's going to happen. In fact, his use of the word "currently" implicitly acknowledges the presence of uncertainty.

                        edit: And more: "These are very long range forecasts". Why do you think he added that qualification, genius?
                        Thank you.

                        Originally posted by GrinCDXX View Post
                        Whether or not his post was accurate is beside the point, which is that he didn't claim what you said he claimed.
                        Also thank you.

                        Regarding the accuracy of my post, I posted a picture that shows a model forecasting the typhoon making landfall something like 10 miles from downtown hong kong. He just ignored it.
                        Code:
                        As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
College Hockey 6       College Football 0
BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                        Originally posted by SanTropez
                        May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                        Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                        I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                        Originally posted by Kepler
                        When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                        He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                        Comment

                        • #102
                          Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

                          A professional weather forecaster is arguing about weather forecasting models, and trying to score technical points on a model displayed earlier in the discussion from a PM that works for Tacky and Abrasive. If this isn't the internet in a nutshell, I don't know what is.
                          "The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." George Orwell, 1984

                          "One does not simply walk into Mordor. Its Black Gates are guarded by more than just Orcs. There is evil there that does not sleep, and the Great Eye is ever watchful. It is a barren wasteland, riddled with fire and ash and dust, the very air you breathe is a poisonous fume." Boromir

                          "Good news! We have a delivery." Professor Farnsworth

                          Comment

                          • #103
                            Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

                            Originally posted by St. Clown View Post
                            A professional weather forecaster is arguing about weather forecasting models, and trying to score technical points on a model displayed earlier in the discussion from a PM that works for Tacky and Abrasive. If this isn't the internet in a nutshell, I don't know what is.
                            I'm not sure if you're trying to say:
                            1. A professional is always right and can't be wrong about something (you're smarter than this, so I doubt it)
                            2. This professional is trying to own someone on the minutia of a topic the OP isn't a professional on (If so, ok...)
                            3. *Yakkety sax* (most likely)
                            Code:
                            As of 9/21/10:         As of 9/13/10:
College Hockey 6       College Football 0
BTHC 4                 WCHA FC:  1
                            Originally posted by SanTropez
                            May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                            Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                            I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                            Originally posted by Kepler
                            When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                            He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                            Comment

                            • #104
                              Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

                              Mostly 3, a little 2. But mostly 3.
                              "The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." George Orwell, 1984

                              "One does not simply walk into Mordor. Its Black Gates are guarded by more than just Orcs. There is evil there that does not sleep, and the Great Eye is ever watchful. It is a barren wasteland, riddled with fire and ash and dust, the very air you breathe is a poisonous fume." Boromir

                              "Good news! We have a delivery." Professor Farnsworth

                              Comment

                              • #105
                                Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

                                Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post

                                Regarding the accuracy of my post, I posted a picture that shows a model forecasting the typhoon making landfall something like 10 miles from downtown hong kong. He just ignored it.
                                No, I pointed out that it didn't show anything remotely close to what you thought it did, but you ignored that.
                                Charter Member of darin's "UML Seven"

                                "I just hate Boston College to be perfectly honest'' -Ken Dorsey
                                "It's time for my favorite NCAA tradition ... that's right, rooting against BC!" -Bill Simmons

                                Comment

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