Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

Collapse
This topic is closed.
X
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

    Originally posted by Rover View Post
    3) Republican voters turning against the Trump/the GOP/the nominee. Obvious case is the Roy Moore race where there weren't enough Dems to put Jones over the top.
    Is that driving an increase in the Dem vote or a decrease in the GOP vote? IIRC in Alabama Jones's total was similar to Hillary's, but Moore's vote was a huge drop from Trump's. Granted, that's just one example.

    Cornell '04, Stanford '06


    KDR

    Rover Frenchy, Classic! Great post.
    iwh30 I wish I could be as smart as you. I really do you are the man
    gregg729 I just saw your sig, you do love having people revel in your "intelligence."
    Ritt18 you are the perfect representation of your alma mater.
    Miss Thundercat That's it, you win.
    TBA#2 I want to kill you and dance in your blood.
    DisplacedCornellian Hahaha. Thread over. Frenchy wins.

    Test to see if I can add this.

    Comment


    • Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

      Originally posted by Rover View Post
      Its still an open question of who's driving the vote increase of Dem candidates. Consider:

      1) Uber-liberals re-engaging. The theory behind the gains in Virginia for example.
      2) Old timey working class conservadems who flirted with Trump but how have started to come home. The PA special election comes to mind.
      3) Republican voters turning against the Trump/the GOP/the nominee. Obvious case is the Roy Moore race where there weren't enough Dems to put Jones over the top.

      Curious how this continues to play out. Dems can probably squeak by in the House if only #1 happens as there's enough GOP reps sitting in Hillary won districts to put them over the top (barely) plus they have a lot of opportunities in CA, IL, NY, NJ, and PA where the Republican party is reeling. If conservadems start coming home as well maybe they make gains in OH, MI and WI and that rural Maine seat. Only way they win the Senate however is if Republicans with a functioning brain start ditching their party. I'll believe that last one when I see it.
      1) Likely. Ding dong, the witch is dead.
      2) Unlikely. Those people are getting exactly what they wanted.
      3) No. The numbers don't bear this out at all.
      Cornell University
      National Champion 1967, 1970
      ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
      Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Rover View Post
        Its still an open question of who's driving the vote increase of Dem candidates. Consider:

        1) Uber-liberals re-engaging. The theory behind the gains in Virginia for example.
        2) Old timey working class conservadems who flirted with Trump but how have started to come home. The PA special election comes to mind.
        3) Republican voters turning against the Trump/the GOP/the nominee. Obvious case is the Roy Moore race where there weren't enough Dems to put Jones over the top.

        Curious how this continues to play out. Dems can probably squeak by in the House if only #1 happens as there's enough GOP reps sitting in Hillary won districts to put them over the top (barely) plus they have a lot of opportunities in CA, IL, NY, NJ, and PA where the Republican party is reeling. If conservadems start coming home as well maybe they make gains in OH, MI and WI and that rural Maine seat. Only way they win the Senate however is if Republicans with a functioning brain start ditching their party. I'll believe that last one when I see it.
        #2 isn't particularly encouraging anyway. In the Pennslvania special election, Trump voters didn't really come home, Conor Lamb came to them. He didn't criticize Trump at all. He focused his ire on Pelosi.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by GrinCDXX View Post
          He focused his ire on Pelosi.
          “I hate Congress!!! Except for my guy.”
          a legend and an out of work bum look a lot alike, daddy.

          Comment


          • Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

            Originally posted by GrinCDXX View Post
            #2 isn't particularly encouraging anyway. In the Pennslvania special election, Trump voters didn't really come home, Conor Lamb came to them. He didn't criticize Trump at all. He focused his ire on Pelosi.
            Connor Lamb went after the Tax Theft bill and the Medicaid repeal.

            https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/13/polit...ues/index.html

            Nancy Pelosi's status as Dem leader isn't worth losing the House over and I happen to like the woman. However, people have to realize that I'd prefer 24 more Connor Lamb's putting us over the top in the House even if that means some progressive wish list items like a 90% tax rate for anybody making over 50K doesn't end up happening.
            Legally drunk???? If its "legal", what's the ------- problem?!? - George Carlin

            Ever notice how everybody who drives slower than you is an idiot, and everybody who drives faster is a maniac? - George Carlin

            "I've never seen so much reason and bullsh*t contained in ONE MAN."

            Comment


            • Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

              Originally posted by Kepler View Post
              1
              3) No. The numbers don't bear this out at all.
              They do in some places like the AZ special election recently. There aren't enough Dems in some of these places to make these races close. Either as Frenchy speculated a huge portion of Goopers are staying home or some people in some races are crossing over. We're not going to know this until after the fact obviously.

              If Jones did get close to Hillary's raw vote totals in AL that's a hell of an accomplishment for a special election vs a general election.
              Legally drunk???? If its "legal", what's the ------- problem?!? - George Carlin

              Ever notice how everybody who drives slower than you is an idiot, and everybody who drives faster is a maniac? - George Carlin

              "I've never seen so much reason and bullsh*t contained in ONE MAN."

              Comment


              • Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

                Originally posted by Rover View Post
                However, people have to realize that I'd prefer 24 more Connor Lamb's putting us over the top in the House even if that means some progressive wish list items like a 90% tax rate for anybody making over 50K doesn't end up happening.
                So, you're willing to trade stuff you don't support for power? That's mighty big of ya.

                The question for you is, if the Dems got more seats by going more liberal, would you be willing to accept that? What if I told you we would have supermajorities in both Chambers by 2022 but the "price" was a hard cap on salaries at $500k and net worth at $10M?
                Cornell University
                National Champion 1967, 1970
                ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

                Comment


                • Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

                  Originally posted by Rover View Post
                  They do in some places like the AZ special election recently. There aren't enough Dems in some of these places to make these races close. Either as Frenchy speculated a huge portion of Goopers are staying home or some people in some races are crossing over. We're not going to know this until after the fact obviously.

                  If Jones did get close to Hillary's raw vote totals in AL that's a hell of an accomplishment for a special election vs a general election.
                  Having some familiarity with the political landscape there I can only say that I highly doubt that. AZ is the type of place where loads of people are attracted to Dumpy's con job.
                  Cornell University
                  National Champion 1967, 1970
                  ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                  Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

                  Comment


                  • Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

                    Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                    So, you're willing to trade stuff you don't support for power? That's mighty big of ya.

                    The question for you is, if the Dems got more seats by going more liberal, would you be willing to accept that? What if I told you we would have supermajorities in both Chambers by 2022 but the "price" was a hard cap on salaries at $500k and net worth at $10M?
                    Absolutely. I'll give you a good example of brainless pearl clutching amongst the lamestream media.

                    Recently in Omaha an upstart ran to the left of the former Dem congressman for that district and won the primary. Good for her. Lots of "oh, that race is off the board now" in terms of a potential pickup. I say its way to early to make a call like that. If she fits the district better and can bring more people to the polls, it works for me.

                    Very similar to the Cuomo-Miranda primary. I don't care who wins as long as Dems retain the seat. Whoever does emerge from that primary needs vigorous support from all people in the state who aren't card carrying Trump lovin' knuckledragger loons. Its ain't any more complicated than that.

                    Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                    Having some familiarity with the political landscape there I can only say that I highly doubt that. AZ is the type of place where loads of people are attracted to Dumpy's con job.
                    You don't need them to abandon Chump en masse. If only 5% of them jumped ship you'd be looking at a lot more wins around the country. I too will adopt a wait and see attitude but there's some evidence of this happening particularly if the GOP nominee is a loon. If Bredesen pulls of a win in TN it'll be because of enough righties coming over to support him for example.
                    Last edited by Rover; 05-17-2018, 02:08 PM.
                    Legally drunk???? If its "legal", what's the ------- problem?!? - George Carlin

                    Ever notice how everybody who drives slower than you is an idiot, and everybody who drives faster is a maniac? - George Carlin

                    "I've never seen so much reason and bullsh*t contained in ONE MAN."

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                      . 2 but the "price" was a hard cap on salaries at $500k and net worth at $10M?
                      Ain’t you cute
                      a legend and an out of work bum look a lot alike, daddy.

                      Comment


                      • Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

                        Originally posted by French Rage View Post
                        Is that driving an increase in the Dem vote or a decrease in the GOP vote? IIRC in Alabama Jones's total was similar to Hillary's, but Moore's vote was a huge drop from Trump's. Granted, that's just one example.
                        Went back and looked it up. Hill got about maybe 50K more votes than Jones, which again is an incredible accomplishment but Jones still must have received some disaffected GOP votes to put him over the top (he won the race by about 20K votes IIRC).
                        Legally drunk???? If its "legal", what's the ------- problem?!? - George Carlin

                        Ever notice how everybody who drives slower than you is an idiot, and everybody who drives faster is a maniac? - George Carlin

                        "I've never seen so much reason and bullsh*t contained in ONE MAN."

                        Comment


                        • Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

                          Originally posted by mookie1995 View Post
                          Ain’t you cute
                          I will put in a good word for mookie before the Committee for Public Safety.
                          Cornell University
                          National Champion 1967, 1970
                          ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
                          Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                            I will put in a good word for mookie before the Committee for Public Safety.
                            a legend and an out of work bum look a lot alike, daddy.

                            Comment


                            • Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

                              You'll have at least one chance to see if the liberal wing can carry a seat. The Dem nomination for Omaha's congressional seat went to a progressive wing candidate over the moderate. And most forecasters promptly moved the seat from toss up to leans GOP.

                              Comment


                              • Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

                                Originally posted by unofan View Post
                                You'll have at least one chance to see if the liberal wing can carry a seat. The Dem nomination for Omaha's congressional seat went to a progressive wing candidate over the moderate. And most forecasters promptly moved the seat from toss up to leans GOP.
                                Please see 6 posts down.
                                Legally drunk???? If its "legal", what's the ------- problem?!? - George Carlin

                                Ever notice how everybody who drives slower than you is an idiot, and everybody who drives faster is a maniac? - George Carlin

                                "I've never seen so much reason and bullsh*t contained in ONE MAN."

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X