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Thread: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

  1. #101
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    Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

    Not if the Wolves get Lebron

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    Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

    Quote Originally Posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
    The scary thing with pawl entry is that heís been gone long enough for people to forget what he did but not long enough to forget his name. I donít think youíre right handy, that people still remember his policies.
    Ask around...he is not well liked or thought of. The only thing he ever had to hang his hat on was getting the Wild and that wont play now. It took years for Dayton to clean up his mess which is why Dayton's popularity amongst voters (and the business community) is dang good. T-Paw is seen as a Dubya flunky which is exactly what he was.

    He might win the nomination, but barring Walz skipping every townhall and debate no way TPaw wins Minneapolis or St. Paul.
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    Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

    Quote Originally Posted by bronconick View Post
    She probably bought into the same hype the media, pundits and most that he didn't have a chance, so if that's true, push the envelope to get enough seats before your party sleeps through the midterms again like they did for Obama.
    I would also say everyone underestimated the depravity and hatred amongst Republican voters. The thought process would be that those so called "traditional Republicans" (generally speaking the educated ones and women) would be so disgusted with Chump's behavior that they finally start voting Dem, much like Obama managed to flip places like North Carolina and Indiana in 2008. Instead the same 62M people came out to vote for Trump as well as a handful of people thinking they were "sending a message" by voting for a candidate they thought would lose including some disillusioned Bernie supporters.

    Its no different than the notion that in a general election Sanders could have walked away with half the GOP base by appealing to them with his economic message. Not a bad theory but with what we know now of the blatant and open racism of Republican voters unless he planned on blaming immigrants and Muslims for all of their problems that obviously never would have happened. It even surprises me how bad Republicans are and I had a pretty low opinion of them for like the last 30 years.
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  4. #104
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    Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rover View Post
    I would also say everyone underestimated the depravity and hatred amongst Republican voters. The thought process would be that those so called "traditional Republicans" (generally speaking the educated ones and women) would be so disgusted with Chump's behavior that they finally start voting Dem, much like Obama managed to flip places like North Carolina and Indiana in 2008. Instead the same 62M people came out to vote for Trump as well as a handful of people thinking they were "sending a message" by voting for a candidate they thought would lose including some disillusioned Bernie supporters.

    Its no different than the notion that in a general election Sanders could have walked away with half the GOP base by appealing to them with his economic message. Not a bad theory but with what we know now of the blatant and open racism of Republican voters unless he planned on blaming immigrants and Muslims for all of their problems that obviously never would have happened. It even surprises me how bad Republicans are and I had a pretty low opinion of them for like the last 30 years.
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    Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

    Its still an open question of who's driving the vote increase of Dem candidates. Consider:

    1) Uber-liberals re-engaging. The theory behind the gains in Virginia for example.
    2) Old timey working class conservadems who flirted with Trump but how have started to come home. The PA special election comes to mind.
    3) Republican voters turning against the Trump/the GOP/the nominee. Obvious case is the Roy Moore race where there weren't enough Dems to put Jones over the top.

    Curious how this continues to play out. Dems can probably squeak by in the House if only #1 happens as there's enough GOP reps sitting in Hillary won districts to put them over the top (barely) plus they have a lot of opportunities in CA, IL, NY, NJ, and PA where the Republican party is reeling. If conservadems start coming home as well maybe they make gains in OH, MI and WI and that rural Maine seat. Only way they win the Senate however is if Republicans with a functioning brain start ditching their party. I'll believe that last one when I see it.
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  6. #106
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    Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rover View Post
    3) Republican voters turning against the Trump/the GOP/the nominee. Obvious case is the Roy Moore race where there weren't enough Dems to put Jones over the top.
    Is that driving an increase in the Dem vote or a decrease in the GOP vote? IIRC in Alabama Jones's total was similar to Hillary's, but Moore's vote was a huge drop from Trump's. Granted, that's just one example.

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    Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rover View Post
    Its still an open question of who's driving the vote increase of Dem candidates. Consider:

    1) Uber-liberals re-engaging. The theory behind the gains in Virginia for example.
    2) Old timey working class conservadems who flirted with Trump but how have started to come home. The PA special election comes to mind.
    3) Republican voters turning against the Trump/the GOP/the nominee. Obvious case is the Roy Moore race where there weren't enough Dems to put Jones over the top.

    Curious how this continues to play out. Dems can probably squeak by in the House if only #1 happens as there's enough GOP reps sitting in Hillary won districts to put them over the top (barely) plus they have a lot of opportunities in CA, IL, NY, NJ, and PA where the Republican party is reeling. If conservadems start coming home as well maybe they make gains in OH, MI and WI and that rural Maine seat. Only way they win the Senate however is if Republicans with a functioning brain start ditching their party. I'll believe that last one when I see it.
    1) Likely. Ding dong, the witch is dead.
    2) Unlikely. Those people are getting exactly what they wanted.
    3) No. The numbers don't bear this out at all.
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  8. #108
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rover View Post
    Its still an open question of who's driving the vote increase of Dem candidates. Consider:

    1) Uber-liberals re-engaging. The theory behind the gains in Virginia for example.
    2) Old timey working class conservadems who flirted with Trump but how have started to come home. The PA special election comes to mind.
    3) Republican voters turning against the Trump/the GOP/the nominee. Obvious case is the Roy Moore race where there weren't enough Dems to put Jones over the top.

    Curious how this continues to play out. Dems can probably squeak by in the House if only #1 happens as there's enough GOP reps sitting in Hillary won districts to put them over the top (barely) plus they have a lot of opportunities in CA, IL, NY, NJ, and PA where the Republican party is reeling. If conservadems start coming home as well maybe they make gains in OH, MI and WI and that rural Maine seat. Only way they win the Senate however is if Republicans with a functioning brain start ditching their party. I'll believe that last one when I see it.
    #2 isn't particularly encouraging anyway. In the Pennslvania special election, Trump voters didn't really come home, Conor Lamb came to them. He didn't criticize Trump at all. He focused his ire on Pelosi.

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    Quote Originally Posted by GrinCDXX View Post
    He focused his ire on Pelosi.
    ďI hate Congress!!! Except for my guy.Ē

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    Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

    Quote Originally Posted by GrinCDXX View Post
    #2 isn't particularly encouraging anyway. In the Pennslvania special election, Trump voters didn't really come home, Conor Lamb came to them. He didn't criticize Trump at all. He focused his ire on Pelosi.
    Connor Lamb went after the Tax Theft bill and the Medicaid repeal.

    https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/13/polit...ues/index.html

    Nancy Pelosi's status as Dem leader isn't worth losing the House over and I happen to like the woman. However, people have to realize that I'd prefer 24 more Connor Lamb's putting us over the top in the House even if that means some progressive wish list items like a 90% tax rate for anybody making over 50K doesn't end up happening.
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    Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kepler View Post
    1
    3) No. The numbers don't bear this out at all.
    They do in some places like the AZ special election recently. There aren't enough Dems in some of these places to make these races close. Either as Frenchy speculated a huge portion of Goopers are staying home or some people in some races are crossing over. We're not going to know this until after the fact obviously.

    If Jones did get close to Hillary's raw vote totals in AL that's a hell of an accomplishment for a special election vs a general election.
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    Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rover View Post
    However, people have to realize that I'd prefer 24 more Connor Lamb's putting us over the top in the House even if that means some progressive wish list items like a 90% tax rate for anybody making over 50K doesn't end up happening.
    So, you're willing to trade stuff you don't support for power? That's mighty big of ya.

    The question for you is, if the Dems got more seats by going more liberal, would you be willing to accept that? What if I told you we would have supermajorities in both Chambers by 2022 but the "price" was a hard cap on salaries at $500k and net worth at $10M?
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    Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rover View Post
    They do in some places like the AZ special election recently. There aren't enough Dems in some of these places to make these races close. Either as Frenchy speculated a huge portion of Goopers are staying home or some people in some races are crossing over. We're not going to know this until after the fact obviously.

    If Jones did get close to Hillary's raw vote totals in AL that's a hell of an accomplishment for a special election vs a general election.
    Having some familiarity with the political landscape there I can only say that I highly doubt that. AZ is the type of place where loads of people are attracted to Dumpy's con job.
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    Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kepler View Post
    So, you're willing to trade stuff you don't support for power? That's mighty big of ya.

    The question for you is, if the Dems got more seats by going more liberal, would you be willing to accept that? What if I told you we would have supermajorities in both Chambers by 2022 but the "price" was a hard cap on salaries at $500k and net worth at $10M?
    Absolutely. I'll give you a good example of brainless pearl clutching amongst the lamestream media.

    Recently in Omaha an upstart ran to the left of the former Dem congressman for that district and won the primary. Good for her. Lots of "oh, that race is off the board now" in terms of a potential pickup. I say its way to early to make a call like that. If she fits the district better and can bring more people to the polls, it works for me.

    Very similar to the Cuomo-Miranda primary. I don't care who wins as long as Dems retain the seat. Whoever does emerge from that primary needs vigorous support from all people in the state who aren't card carrying Trump lovin' knuckledragger loons. Its ain't any more complicated than that.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kepler View Post
    Having some familiarity with the political landscape there I can only say that I highly doubt that. AZ is the type of place where loads of people are attracted to Dumpy's con job.
    You don't need them to abandon Chump en masse. If only 5% of them jumped ship you'd be looking at a lot more wins around the country. I too will adopt a wait and see attitude but there's some evidence of this happening particularly if the GOP nominee is a loon. If Bredesen pulls of a win in TN it'll be because of enough righties coming over to support him for example.
    Last edited by Rover; 05-17-2018 at 02:08 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kepler View Post
    . 2 but the "price" was a hard cap on salaries at $500k and net worth at $10M?
    Ainít you cute

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    Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

    Quote Originally Posted by French Rage View Post
    Is that driving an increase in the Dem vote or a decrease in the GOP vote? IIRC in Alabama Jones's total was similar to Hillary's, but Moore's vote was a huge drop from Trump's. Granted, that's just one example.
    Went back and looked it up. Hill got about maybe 50K more votes than Jones, which again is an incredible accomplishment but Jones still must have received some disaffected GOP votes to put him over the top (he won the race by about 20K votes IIRC).
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    Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

    Quote Originally Posted by mookie1995 View Post
    Ainít you cute
    I will put in a good word for mookie before the Committee for Public Safety.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kepler View Post
    I will put in a good word for mookie before the Committee for Public Safety.

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    Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

    You'll have at least one chance to see if the liberal wing can carry a seat. The Dem nomination for Omaha's congressional seat went to a progressive wing candidate over the moderate. And most forecasters promptly moved the seat from toss up to leans GOP.

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    Re: The States: Why does Minnesota wanna be Kansas?

    Quote Originally Posted by unofan View Post
    You'll have at least one chance to see if the liberal wing can carry a seat. The Dem nomination for Omaha's congressional seat went to a progressive wing candidate over the moderate. And most forecasters promptly moved the seat from toss up to leans GOP.
    Please see 6 posts down.
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