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Thread: Boston College Women's Hockey 2018-2019: NO COMMERCIALS, NO MERCY

  1. #21
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    Re: Boston College Women's Hockey 2018-2019: NO COMMERCIALS, NO MERCY

    Quote Originally Posted by ARM View Post
    It would be interesting to look back through the stats and find the worst defensive team to win an NCAA Title.
    So I did, and the worst teams in terms of allowing goals were mostly early on. I bolded the worst defensive championship year for each program. So, there was a champ that allowed more than BC (1.97 GAA), but it was a long time ago. At the end, BC was only outscoring teams about 2/1 (4.02 Opp. GAA), and UMD in 2010 was the only winner with a lower ratio.

    Year Team GAA Opp. GAA
    2001 UMD 2.19 5.33
    2002 UMD 1.68 3.86
    2003 UMD 1.78 6.18
    2004 Minn 1.65 4.44
    2005 Minn 1.34 4.89
    2006 Wisco 1.22 3.72
    2007 Wisco 0.85 3.91
    2008 UMD 1.48 4.24
    2009 Wisco 1.28 5
    2010 UMD 1.96 3.27
    2011 Wisco 1.69 5.11
    2012 Minn 1.31 4.39
    2013 Minn 0.86 5.13
    2014 Clark 1.11 3.62
    2015 Minn 1.16 4.44
    2016 Minn 1.26 4.62
    2017 Clark 1.52 3.52
    "... And lose, and start again at your beginnings
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    Re: Boston College Women's Hockey 2018-2019: NO COMMERCIALS, NO MERCY

    Quote Originally Posted by ARM View Post
    So I did, and the worst teams in terms of allowing goals were mostly early on. I bolded the worst defensive championship year for each program. So, there was a champ that allowed more than BC (1.97 GAA), but it was a long time ago. At the end, BC was only outscoring teams about 2/1 (4.02 Opp. GAA), and UMD in 2010 was the only winner with a lower ratio.
    When doing something like this, it's critically important to account for context. As you sort of hint at, different periods of time have different levels of goal scoring, and you have to control for that. Sometimes, it's also important to control for league context.

    Obviously, that makes things a lot more complicated, and I have no intention of doing that work right now, but raw goals allowed tells you very little.

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    Re: Boston College Women's Hockey 2018-2019: NO COMMERCIALS, NO MERCY

    Quote Originally Posted by Still Eeyore View Post
    When doing something like this, it's critically important to account for context. As you sort of hint at, different periods of time have different levels of goal scoring, and you have to control for that. Sometimes, it's also important to control for league context.

    Obviously, that makes things a lot more complicated, and I have no intention of doing that work right now, but raw goals allowed tells you very little.
    It's a long summer. You'll do that work eventually -- or Grant will. I just wanted to pick the lowest hanging fruit, or maybe those pieces that had already fallen to the ground.
    "... And lose, and start again at your beginnings
    And never breathe a word about your loss;" -- Rudyard Kipling

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    #SOAR TonyTheTiger20's Avatar
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    Re: Boston College Women's Hockey 2018-2019: NO COMMERCIALS, NO MERCY

    I am looking forward to seeing each teams' returning scoring. I'll be tough to factor in the Olympians but it is what it is.

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    Re: Boston College Women's Hockey 2018-2019: NO COMMERCIALS, NO MERCY

    Quote Originally Posted by Still Eeyore View Post
    When doing something like this, it's critically important to account for context. As you sort of hint at, different periods of time have different levels of goal scoring, and you have to control for that. Sometimes, it's also important to control for league context.
    Obviously, that makes things a lot more complicated, and I have no intention of doing that work right now, but raw goals allowed tells you very little.
    What you guys are talking about starts to look like what is sometimes called the 'Pythagorean Theorem of Baseball' or the 'Pythagorean expectation', developed by SABR pioneer Bill James.

    Basically, it isn't necessarily how many runs a team scores, nor is it the number of runs they give up, but over time, it is the differential of runs scored vs runs given up that will predictively determine how many games they win.

    As the Wikipedia article mentions, it has been applied (with varying measures of success) to other sports, including hockey; though I assume - without looking - that the application to hockey was to the NHL, where 'over time' involves more games, and would become a better predictor..

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation

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    Re: Boston College Women's Hockey 2018-2019: NO COMMERCIALS, NO MERCY

    Quote Originally Posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
    We're doing the best we can. Wisconsin and Minnesota won't play us...
    Which has worked out well for Minnesota in its post season games with BC other than that one blip in 2011. OTOH Clarkson is the opposite case. Playing them 5 times in 2010 and 2011 all resulted in wins for Minnesota, but then not playing them till the final game 3 years later did not go so well.

    Maybe with North Dakota gone the Gophers will finally play a couple home and away series with both BC and Clarkson. They would be fun games to see.
    Last edited by bluffrinkrat; 03-14-2018 at 10:16 PM. Reason: Hilary Price of the hockey forum I'm not.

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    Re: Boston College Women's Hockey 2018-2019: NO COMMERCIALS, NO MERCY

    Quote Originally Posted by Arafel View Post
    I'd love to see BC win. I routed for them in the game against Minnesota, the only time they made the title game. However, until BC starts scheduling harder teams on a more consistent basis, I don't see it happening. They'll have a dominant offense against most of Hockey East and when they play teams that have better defenses, the Eagles won't be able to figure it out in time.
    Well, 3-1 wasn't exactly a rout, but I did root for Minnesota to win that year.

    I agree that having a harder schedule does help get a team ready for the post season though. Unless you want to go undefeated, then playing teams like Colgate, St Lawrence and New Hampshire in somewhat down years for them probably helps. I'm just very glad the Gophers only played BC once in 2013.
    Last edited by bluffrinkrat; 03-14-2018 at 10:34 PM. Reason: Miss Langer would not have approved.

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    Re: Boston College Women's Hockey 2018-2019: NO COMMERCIALS, NO MERCY

    Quote Originally Posted by robertearle View Post
    What you guys are talking about starts to look like what is sometimes called the 'Pythagorean Theorem of Baseball' or the 'Pythagorean expectation', developed by SABR pioneer Bill James.
    Not really. Pythagorean expectations is good for determining a team's expected winning percentage, and is a better predictor of future winning percentage than actual winning percentage is. However, ARM is asking a slightly different question. Inherent in pythagorean analysis is an assumption that it doesn't matter whether you generate your goals/goals allowed ratio by scoring more, or by giving up fewer. ARM is either suggesting or implying one of two things: that there comes a point at which you can't score enough goals to compensate for giving up more; or that the pythagorean formula breaks down at the extremes.

    Either one of these could be true. It is definitely the case that there are diminishing returns to becoming better at something you are already good at. If you have an excellent offense and a mediocre defense, it is likely that you will have an easier time reducing the number of goals you allow than to increase the number that you are scoring. So, there is value at looking at the question of just how many goals a team can give up before you conclude that they are unlikely to be able to win a national championship, no matter how good their offense is.

    Aside from my comment about needing to adjust for context, I'd also say that looking only at the actual national champions leaves you with too small a sample to generate meaningful results. I'd probably extend it to looking at all Frozen Four participants, both to give a larger sample and because once they make it that far, it's possible to for any team to have a fluky weekend and win it all.

    Basically, it isn't necessarily how many runs a team scores, nor is it the number of runs they give up, but over time, it is the differential of runs scored vs runs given up that will predictively determine how many games they win.
    To be mathematically precise, it is the ratio of runs to runs allowed that's important, not the differential. To be even more precise, it is that ratio raised to an exponent. The original pythagorean analysis that Bill James created used an exponent of 2, which is why he used the term "pythagorean" to describe it. Later work by Clay Davenport showed that the proper exponent was ~1.8, and that it fluctuated over time. In general, a higher scoring era resulted in a larger exponent, though that wasn't always the case.

    As the Wikipedia article mentions, it has been applied (with varying measures of success) to other sports, including hockey; though I assume - without looking - that the application to hockey was to the NHL, where 'over time' involves more games, and would become a better predictor..
    It's actually been very successful across sports, once you adjust the exponent. For basketball, it's much greater than 2; for soccer, a lot less. The values for the NHL are more stable and predictive not just because they play more games, though that's a part of it, but also because the gap in talent between the best teams and the worst is smaller than it is at the college or most minor league levels. As I suggested up top, it wouldn't be surprising if the pythagorean formula starts to break down at the extremes, and trying to use the same formula to predict both Clarkson and RIT could be difficult. A few years ago, I noodled around with the numbers a bit and what I saw was that the exponent for Division 1 women's hockey is probably in the 1.7-1.8 range, but I wouldn't put any level of confidence in that given the very cursory nature of my investigation.

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    Re: Boston College Women's Hockey 2018-2019: NO COMMERCIALS, NO MERCY

    Quote Originally Posted by Still Eeyore View Post
    When doing something like this, it's critically important to account for context. As you sort of hint at, different periods of time have different levels of goal scoring, and you have to control for that. Sometimes, it's also important to control for league context.

    Obviously, that makes things a lot more complicated, and I have no intention of doing that work right now, but raw goals allowed tells you very little.
    still denying defense wins championships 'eh

    it's simple math
    you don't give up any goals, you only need to score one to win
    you give up one goal, now you hafta score twice as many goals to win
    you give up two, you hafta score three times as many to win
    ....it just gets harder to win the more goals you give up
    Last edited by pokechecker; 03-15-2018 at 07:56 AM.
    Doing my best to alleviate our nations political hysteria.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pokechecker View Post
    still denying defense wins championships 'eh

    it's simple math
    you don't give up any goals, you only need to score one to win
    you give up one goal, now you hafta score twice as many goals to win
    you give up two, you hafta score three times as many to win
    ....it just gets harder to win the more goals you give up
    It's also easier to win the more goals you score.

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    Re: Boston College Women's Hockey 2018-2019: NO COMMERCIALS, NO MERCY

    Quote Originally Posted by joecct View Post
    It's also easier to win the more goals you score.
    Sure when you are playing teams like Dartmouth, Brown, and Yale, forget about defense and just have fun, pile on the goals.
    But when you get to the FF you are playing the best teams, presumably with the best goalies, scoring is not going to be easy.

    Wisconsinís record when giving up 3 or more goals this year was 2-3-2, with one of those wins being in OT
    Clarksonís record was 3-3 with a 1-2 record in those games of OT

    So tell me again it is easier to win the more goals you score numbnuts
    Doing my best to alleviate our nations political hysteria.

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    #SOAR TonyTheTiger20's Avatar
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    Re: Boston College Women's Hockey 2018-2019: NO COMMERCIALS, NO MERCY

    I feel like one of these days there's going to be a big reveal and we're all going to find out that pokechecker is actually Brad Frost or something

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    Re: Boston College Women's Hockey 2018-2019: NO COMMERCIALS, NO MERCY

    Quote Originally Posted by pokechecker View Post
    So tell me again it is easier to win the more goals you score numbnuts
    I don't intend to disagree with you and thereby invite commentary on my own private parts, but your zinger actually didn't support your own premise. The cases you mentioned were cases when Wisco and Clarkson didn't score enough to win. But thanks for elevating the discourse nonetheless.

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    Re: Boston College Women's Hockey 2018-2019: NO COMMERCIALS, NO MERCY

    Quote Originally Posted by Leather helmet View Post
    I don't intend to disagree with you and thereby invite commentary on my own private parts, but your zinger actually didn't support your own premise. The cases you mentioned were cases when Wisco and Clarkson didn't score enough to win. But thanks for elevating the discourse nonetheless.
    Wow, you really should remove that leather from your head, maybe a little more fresh air on your nogginí might do you some good, or maybe it is just too tight putting too much pressure on your brain. which doesnít appear to be all that great anyway. IOW, donít handicap yourself, you really donít have anything to spare.

    ANY team that doesnít win obviously didnít score enough.
    I trust that my previous post doesnít need further explanation to anybody of normal cognitive abilities.
    Doing my best to alleviate our nations political hysteria.

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    Re: Boston College Women's Hockey 2018-2019: NO COMMERCIALS, NO MERCY

    Quote Originally Posted by pokechecker View Post
    Wow, you really should remove that leather from your head, maybe a little more fresh air on your nogginí might do you some good, or maybe it is just too tight putting too much pressure on your brain. which doesnít appear to be all that great anyway. IOW, donít handicap yourself, you really donít have anything to spare.

    ANY team that doesnít win obviously didnít score enough.
    I trust that my previous post doesnít need further explanation to anybody of normal cognitive abilities.
    Noggin isn't a contraction.

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    Re: Boston College Women's Hockey 2018-2019: NO COMMERCIALS, NO MERCY

    Quote Originally Posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
    I feel like one of these days there's going to be a big reveal and we're all going to find out that pokechecker is actually Brad Frost or something
    Lol. This made my morning.

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    Re: Boston College Women's Hockey 2018-2019: NO COMMERCIALS, NO MERCY

    Quote Originally Posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
    I feel like one of these days there's going to be a big reveal and we're all going to find out that pokechecker is actually Brad Frost or something
    Bethel might take away his diploma if that were the case. Although if he does lose his diploma he could always go to Bullwinkle's alma mater.

    https://www.guidogear.com/whatsamata...SABEgIS2_D_BwE
    Last edited by bluffrinkrat; 03-15-2018 at 12:38 PM. Reason: OTOH maybe they wouldn't take him.

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    Re: Boston College Women's Hockey 2018-2019: NO COMMERCIALS, NO MERCY

    This reminds me of that time that two people on the men's forum got into a shouting match over whose W2 was bigger. At some point someone said something about how W2s were for peasants or something and touted his 1099 prowess.

    Those were back in the USCHO glory days.

    Last edited by TonyTheTiger20; 03-15-2018 at 02:31 PM.

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    Re: Boston College Women's Hockey 2018-2019: NO COMMERCIALS, NO MERCY

    Quote Originally Posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
    I feel like one of these days there's going to be a big reveal and we're all going to find out that pokechecker is actually Brad Frost or something
    I always thought it was ARM. He is always so nice and reasonable I assume at some point he has to cut loose and be a complete A-hole and that is when puckchucker pops out. :P

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    Re: Boston College Women's Hockey 2018-2019: NO COMMERCIALS, NO MERCY

    Quote Originally Posted by ne7minder View Post
    He is always so nice and reasonable...
    You must not have been around here in the days when the UMD/UM rivalry would get heated, or when brooky was starting feuds with half of Canada. To say nothing of the Cafe and the boom times of rep. I will try to aspire to nice and reasonable, but I think I'm too OCD to suddenly quit using punctuation altogether.
    "... And lose, and start again at your beginnings
    And never breathe a word about your loss;" -- Rudyard Kipling

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