Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

[SteveO]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

Gophers got off to a rough start, but I thought the push back effort from the second period onward was very good. Unfortunately this weekend, with the only exception being Ramsey's goal in the 2nd tonight, all the scoring came from one line: Mittelstadt (3), Reedy (3), Pitlick (1). Sheehy, Gates Jr., Novak, Szmatula have all lit the lamp in previous weeks, but shot blanks for the entire series. A revived PP with 4 total PPGs was sorely needed, but we didn't have enough guys stepping up 5x5 this weekend.

Throughout the series, both goalies struggled between the pipes which surprised me. Going into the weekend, I thought the goaltending situation was firming up with Robson, but tonight Schierhorn's SV% was .823, last night Robson was .862. Allowing 21 Gs in 4 straight losses is on both the D and the netminders.

First time the season schedule closed for the Gophers before the NCAA tournament with 4 consecutive losses to the same team. With all the seasonal talent the Gophers recruit, the new low certainly raises questions about the direction of the Gopher hockey program going forward. And a 5th consecutive loss in the first round of the NCAAs will most definitely amplify the voices calling for a leadership change. Is this season the beginning of Don Lucia's swan song? All things considered, it could be although an NCAA win may soften things a bit.

[The Rube]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

Unless we get a title, tDon is done. I hate saying it, and have been accused already of not being a "true fan," he is done. It really sucks. It's time for a change.

[Koho]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

Unless we get a title, tDon is done. I hate saying it, and have been accused already of not being a "true fan," he is done. It really sucks. It's time for a change.

How can you say he IS done. I know you think he should be done. But college hockey coaching has never been as volatile as BB or FB. Just not as big of a sport so it seems like there is less pressure to replace the coach. With one year left on the contract, why wouldn't they tell him he can finish out that year and retire?

[Koho]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

False narrative. Sad, but it will never happen.

A narrative can't be false if it has yet to occur. Unlikely, yes. False, no. I am not saying it is likely this team does much if they make the tourney, but they can't do anything if they don't make it. As was pointed out, the last Goph team to make the finals backed in with losses. If I remember correctly, Yale stumbled in the year they won it all, and no one was picking them. In the decades of watching the Gophs, I've seen teams that really seemed to have all the pieces, lose to teams that people didn't think could beat the Gophs. And I'm not saying this has only happened to MN. Has happened to most college teams at some time in a one and done (you just feel it and remember it more when it is the team you follow closely). The team that isn't expected to win often does. (Look at the stats over the last 10 years for the NCAA for how many 4th seeds beat 1st seeds in the opening game.) So why wouldn't you want this team to have one more shot to end the season on a better note? Even one win in NCAA would make the end of the season feel a little better than four straight to the Peds.

We all have had the feeling that offensively, this team has under-performed all year. On paper, this team should have three lines that are a threat to score at any time. So while they have rarely showed that level of play all season long, it isn't like they are a team that really only has one line with talent and has just gotten enough bounces in enough games to barely make it. There is more talent there than what they have shown. It is like BU last year (and apparently this year). Tons of talent but came in as a 4th seed and really could have been in the championship, but barely lost to eventual runner-up Duluth. Anything can happen in a one-and-done. And from running brackets over the last 10 years, it seems like the only thing predictable, is that the results will be unpredictable.

[The Rube]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

How can you say he IS done. I know you think he should be done. But college hockey coaching has never been as volatile as BB or FB. Just not as big of a sport so it seems like there is less pressure to replace the coach. With one year left on the contract, why wouldn't they tell him he can finish out that year and retire?

You can't have a lame duck coach like that, due to recruiting. Future players will see the writing on the wall, and if they don't know who that next coach is....

Let tDon resign after this season. Get a move on the next coach. If you want a MN connection, pay G Money (Grant Potulny) and steal him back from NMU. He's done very well there, that's a good sign.

[5mn_Major]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

Yeah. I am incredibly frustrated with their play and have little expectation for them to win, but how can you not want them to at least make the tourney to take that chance?

I do understand the point that we shouldn't want the Gophers to make the tourney.

Which is better? A Gopher team, which is 1-12-1 on the road against NCAAs worthy teams, feeling like they 'just couldn't do it against a 1 seed' in a NCAAs loss...or a loud and clear embarrassing message of 0-4 to take away your play offs to get these guys hitting the ice HARD in the off season.

This franchise needs a major jolt...and sadly humiliation is best at delivering one.

[SteveO]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

Red Berenson, arguably the biggest icon in Michigan hockey history, was a lame duck coach on a one-year contract extension (2016-17) before he announced his retirement at the end of his contract in April, 2017. Despite the sudden (expected ) announcement, no harm was done to the recruiting program at Mich.

Recruiting is always a consideration when there's a change in leadership, but if and how that change takes place can vary and direct negative effects on recruiting for B1G schools like Mich and MN are not necessarily imminent. Considering Don Lucia is in an elite class as the second all-time active winningest coach in college hockey (2nd in active winning pct.), IF he retires it will be done with the greatest respect for Don and his positive impact and contribution to the Gopher hockey program.

Berenson said he’s been telling recruits the past four years that he probably wouldn’t be the coach by the time they came in as freshmen. It hasn’t hurt recruiting and he doesn’t think it will in the future. - Detroit Free Press

[Tipsy McStagger]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

I mentioned this on GPL: knock them out of the tourney. If they make the tourney, it continues the mirage. I love tDon, but it's time for a change. We need fresh air. It pains me to say it, but it's time.

Ain't no thing but a chicken wing on a string.

4 straight against PSU. But hey, we can make some noise in the tourney? I love tDon, but it's time for a change. I honestly hate saying it, but it's time. We need new blood. I've been fighting this opinion for quite a while, and it's time to face the facts. It's time. There is nothing wrong with that. There is no shame in admitting a weakness. I am an "actual Gopher fan" and I'm willing to admit that we need some fresh air. It sucks, it hurts. But it's time.

Unless we get a title, tDon is done. I hate saying it, and have been accused already of not being a "true fan," he is done. It really sucks. It's time for a change.

Is it time for a change, though?

[Koho]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

I do understand the point that we shouldn't want the Gophers to make the tourney.

Which is better? A Gopher team, which is 1-12-1 on the road against NCAAs worthy teams, feeling like they 'just couldn't do it against a 1 seed' in a NCAAs loss...or a loud and clear embarrassing message of 0-4 to take away your play offs to get these guys hitting the ice HARD in the off season.

This franchise needs a major jolt...and sadly humiliation is best at delivering one.

They came into last year's tourney seeded high and lost their first game. You think they went back and spent the summer saying 'we don't have to try and we'll win it all'? You have to take a shot at every chance. The days of there being 8 or 10 teams that always win the tourney are over. There is more parity so the first step is to get there. I don't believe that not making the tourney this year (one game) is the one thing that will get this program moving on a better trajectory.

And while I have had that sort of feeling for Pro teams, like the Vikings, I just can't do it for kids playing college sports. They aren't professionals getting payed millions (other than the scholies) to entertain us. Some won't see much more hockey once they leave. I just can't understand wanting them to fail on the hope it will somehow make things better in the future.

So to answer your question, I think one more chance at redemption is better than ending without even getting that chance.

[D2D]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

Hopefully the season's not over but I think we can all agree that to date, at this point in the season, the Gophers have drastically under-performed relative to expectations. I was curious "how much" so I went back and looked at where the non-partisan experts at USCHO thought they should be ranked in their pre-season D1 Poll. What I found was very interesting, as the Gophers have not fallen as far as three of the other top five teams when comparing today's poll to where they were ranked pre-season. I know, small consolation.

USCHO Pre-season Top 5
1. Denver
2. Boston University
3. Gophers
4. Harvard
5. Mass-Lowell

Compare this to where USCHO has them ranked today:
4. Denver
15. Gophers
20. Boston University
NR. Harvard (#22 based on votes received)
NR. Mass-Lowell (no votes)

And Pairwise:
5. Denver (a lock for the NCAA Tournament)
13. Gophers (must pray)
19. Boston University (must win HEA Tournament)
25. Harvard (must win ECAC Tournament)
40. Mass-Lowell (season over)

So, while Gopher fans are universally disappointed relative to pre-season expectations, I suppose it could be worse.

[UMICH]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

Red Berenson, arguably the biggest icon in Michigan hockey history, was a lame duck coach on a one-year contract extension (2016-17) before he announced his retirement at the end of his contract in April, 2017.

Coach Berenson signed one year contracts for each of the 3 or 4 seasons (I'm too lazy to look it up exactly) up until his retirement.

[SteveO]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

Coach Berenson signed one year contracts for each of the 3 or 4 seasons (I'm too lazy to look it up exactly) up until his retirement.

Prior to signing his final contract, a one-year deal from 2016-17, Red had signed two back-to-back three-year contracts (2010-13, 2013-16).

2010-13

2013-16

If we look prior to these two three-year deals above, a one-year contract was signed (2009-10) with a one-year renewal increment clause based primarily on retirement rumors:

The 69-year-old University of Michigan hockey coach, whose current three-year contract was set to expire in 2009, agreed to coach the team through next season, athletic director Bill Martin announced in a news release today.

The new deal, a rolling one-year contract extension, will allow Berenson to renew in one-year increments beyond the 2009-10 season if he chooses. That structure is a departure from the one he signed in 2006, which was the first multi-year contract of his Michigan tenure. Every season before that, he worked under open-ended, one-year deals.

Then came the first of two three-year contracts (2010-13 and 2013-16):

"We've been doing a one-year contract of late and it seems like we're spending a lot of time talking about when I'm going to retire," Berenson said. "I think we can put that to bed for awhile and just focus on what we're doing. The situation at Michigan is a little clearer in terms of recruitment or leadership of the program or what my future is. It's pretty simple.

"I've thought about it a lot. I definitely was thinking about leaving earlier but my passion has really been with this team and these players. They're making a commitment to the program and I want my commitment to be clear as well."

[SteveO]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

13. Gophers (must pray)

This caught my eye and I wonder how invested God is in the Gopher's success over say...St. Cloud who have yet to win a Natty? More importantly, will this very question resurrect "the Dead guy"?

According to the latest Probability Matrix output based upon 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining games prior to Selection Day, the Gophers have a 98% chance of an At-large and then @ 14th percentages drop drastically.

Also significant for regional seeding, note the Gophers have a 37% chance of finishing @ 12th or in the 3rd band (based upon Providence's mobility), instead of 13th (26%) or the 4th band.

[trixR4kids]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

I posted this on GPL but I finally put together all the data (neutral zone play/passing data) I tracked and analyzed it a bit in this post: https://gopherstatblog.wordpress.com...-and-analysis/

Not mentioned in the post, I did some digging and tried to figure out which teams had the most goals per game and even strength shot attempts per game over the last 4 seasons (mostly to see how other teams play and look into the coaches of those teams more). UMN was definitely up near the top in terms of goals which was a little surprising given how bad this year has been (also I figured it might've been bad the year we missed the NCAA) on that front and 14th in even strength shots for (I used an imperfect coefficient to try and adjust for the fact that not every team spends the same amount of time at even strength/special teams). As we already know this team is a lot worse this year in that area and as I've stated in the past I kinda wonder if Don decided this was the year to try and play slower/more defensive. My data bears that out but you kinda wonder if Don decided to do that based on Schierhorn being a more average goalie as well as how the Notre Dame game played out last year (a good number of rush opportunities both ways and the Gophers badly outplaying them for 2 periods but Cal Peterson was significantly better). Obviously a large part of the offense drying up is the powerplay but it's been true at even strength as well.

[Bonin21]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

This caught my eye and I wonder how invested God is in the Gopher's success over say...St. Cloud who have yet to win a Natty? More importantly, will this very question resurrect "the Dead guy"?

According to the latest Probability Matrix output based upon 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining games prior to Selection Day, the Gophers have a 98% chance of an At-large and then @ 14th percentages drop drastically.

Also significant for regional seeding, note the Gophers have a 37% chance of finishing @ 12th or in the 3rd band (based upon Providence's mobility), instead of 13th (26%) or the 4th band.

Too many ifs still. I'll start to really pay attention to the scenarios after this coming weekend.