Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

[Bonin21]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

And because of rounding, if you're comparing stats on websites (like points per game on NHL.com), if you see a tie you often need to do the calculation yourself to see who's truly higher.

[St. Clown]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

I thought that 2 years ago when they were the overall #2 seed and got upset by Ferris State in OT in the first round.

BTW, good stats on all those programs the last 6 seasons you posted. Pretty easy to see who has had the most success lately.

They laid down a real brick in that game, didn't look like they were ready to play a real game against Ferris. And Ferris capitalized early, controlled the game until SCSU finally woke up and controlled play. Then the D fell apart during a single rush, allowing a guy walk into the zone unchallenged, and he placed a beautiful shot right past Lindgren.

No, I'm not bitter about their effort that day. No, not at all.

[St. Clown]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

Huh? You round fives up.

.6665
.667
.67
.7
1

And you round jokes to whatever makes the for the best laugh. You're not quick like the real Bonin, are you?

[Bonin21]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

And you round jokes to whatever makes the for the best laugh. You're not quick like the real Bonin, are you?

Honestly didn't read down to the Berry post.

[trixR4kids]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

Prior to their arrival, I don't recall Vanek receiving as much fanfare as CM did. As I mentioned, the covariate here is Vanek played with a better team than CM during a high scoring era in college hockey so that would need to be controlled and adjusted for (no time for that). CM is a talented player and was projected by many to be the #1 FR in college hockey, but to my point his freshman season didn't highly correlate with the hype that preceded him.

This was basically the only point I was making, goalies had smaller leg pads back then for one and played a more hybrid style generally speaking. It was just a different era that'd theoretically have to be adjusted for. Vanek certainly was a better scorer though I'm not questioning that by any means.

For example, his season totals 11-19-30, were very similar to Tyler Sheehy's FR season (12-18-30), or Justin Kloos (16-16-32), Fasching (14-16-30) and Cammarata (10-17-27). Best FR seasons in the last 10 years belong to Jordan Schroeder/2008-09 (13-32-45) and Kyle Rau (3rd round Florida-2011 draft)/2011-12 (18-25-43). Like Mittelstadt, Schroeder was also a 1st round pick, however @ #22 with Vancouver. He was named WCHA rookie of the year.

Coming into this season I kinda expected that CM would basically replace Kloos more or less. I think he did a decent enough job of that as a freshman but there was no way he was gonna equal Kloos's output from last year with the current dumpster fire of a power play that they run. It's just not possible and it basically explains a significant amount of Sheehy's point drop off this year (he had 12 more points on the PP last year). I think if they had a competent PP you'd see CM basically be close to Kloos's production last year and as a freshman that's really impressive. Expecting more than that says more about a person's expectations than anything (not you but others).

As for the awards... meh, Lewandowski is a solid winger playing on the only line his team has which they clearly stacked with Hirose and Khodorenko and I can just about guarantee he gets more ice time on average than CM. He also doesn't have the defensive responsibilities of a center and so that's probably going to up his point total. I don't think that necessarily means he's a better overall player though, in fact that's pretty obviously not the case. But I don't typically take much stock in awards that get voted on and the NHL is even worse honestly. Sheehy getting an honorable mention over Casey kinda says it all.

Also this isn't even getting into the 5 on 5 play which I've talked about a lot and I think with Lucia's somewhat conservative approach the offense gets stifled a bit at evens too.

[D2D]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

While the AD and Co. will evaluate the season and the coaching staff at the end of the season, it's been my opinion that Lucia will most likely sign a "conditional" short-term contract.

Comments from Sid Hartman and Mark Coyle on Lucia in this morning's Strib:

Successful enough?

Sid:
"When it comes to Lucia, his contract is always a hot topic of debate because the Gophers haven’t won a NCAA championship since they went back-to-back in 2002 and 2003, even though they have reached the tournament in five of the past six seasons and reached the Frozen Four in 2012 and 2014.
Lucia still has one more year on his contract, and it’s hard to imagine Coyle would fire him if the team made the tournament Sunday.
Still, the Gophers failed to win the Big Ten for the first time since the conference was created in 2013, and Coyle wouldn’t give a definitive answer on whether or not Lucia would be back."

Coyle:
“With men’s hockey we haven’t shied away from that. We have a hockey program that should be competing for championships each year,” he said. “Obviously we’re ranked 13th in the country [in the PairWise], and we’ll find out March 18th where we’ll play in the NCAA tournament. We’ll continue to evaluate that program like we do all the programs.
Coach Lucia is in his 19th year and I have a lot of respect for what he has done for our program and how he operates.


Also in this morning's Strib, a rather lengthy article on Grant Potulny and how he's turned around the program at Northern Michigan:

Ex-Gophers star Grant Potulny coaches Northern Michigan to WCHA title game
Grant Potulny knows a thing or two about ending droughts.

Back on April 6, 2002, Potulny, then a sophomore captain for the Gophers, scored 16 minutes, 58 seconds into overtime of the NCAA Frozen Four championship game against Maine, giving Minnesota a 4-3 victory, sending the Xcel Energy Center crowd into a raucous celebration and ending a 23-year national title drought for the proud program.

“What a special time,” Potulny said, “not just for our university, but our entire state.”

Fast-forward 16 years later, and Potulny will try to end a dry patch for the folks in Marquette, Mich. On Saturday night, the first-year Northern Michigan coach and his Wildcats face Michigan Tech in the WCHA championship game at NMU’s Berry Events Center. A victory would give the Wildcats their first trip to the NCAA tournament since 2010.

“Obviously, it’s a very important weekend for our team, but also for our program and our community,” the 38-year-old Grand Forks, N.D., native said. “It’s been a little bit of time here since there’s been a team in the national tournament. There’s been excitement around.”

Much of that excitement can be credited to Potulny, who took over a team that went 13-22-4 last season under Walt Kyle and turned it into squad that is 25-14-3 in 2017-18. Picked to finish seventh in the WCHA, the Wildcats instead finished second to a Minnesota State Mankato team that’s been among the nation’s top five for most of the season. On Tuesday, he was named the WCHA’s Coach of the Year.

In the conference playoffs, Northern Michigan twice needed three games to advance, first against Alabama-Huntsville, then Sunday night against Bowling Green in a 3-2 overtime triumph. When Michigan Tech eliminated MSU Mankato 2-1 in overtime Sunday, the battle between the Upper Peninsula rivals was set. The Wildcats will carry a 17-4 home record into the final against the Huskies, and the teams have split four games this season.

“The U.P. rivalry is one of the best I’ve seen, and every time I play them it’s full of emotion,” Wildcats junior forward Adam Rockwood said. “They’re skilled, but they also play hard. … It’s hard to explain. You have to be part of it to know what it’s like to play in it.”

Rockwood is big part of Northern Michigan’s resurgence that has roots in Potulny’s decision to loosen the reins of the offense. The transfer from Wisconsin leads the nation with 40 assists, and his 48 points are tied for sixth nationally. He’s helped junior forward Troy Loggins rank eighth nationally in points (47) and goals, while senior captain Robbie Payne is tied for fifth with 24 goals.

“I’m a playmaker, and Coach put me with Troy Loggins right away, which was a smart move,” Rockwood said. “We’re two guys who are basically designed to play with each other.”

Under Kyle, the Wildcats were a defensive-minded squad. Potulny, a Gophers assistant under Don Lucia for the previous eight years, embraces creativity.

“There’s different ways to play the game,” Potulny said, “and they were built a little bit to play like the New Jersey Devils in the mid-90s when they were winning Stanley Cups, and we want to play more like the Penguins and the Blackhawks.

“We want the guys to be able to have offensive freedom,” he added. “We understand that guys are going to turn pucks over, but as long as they’re working to get that thing back, they’re not going to come back to the bench and get a big earful from us.”

That approach has resulted in the Wildcats improving as the season has progressed. They finished the regular season on a 10-2 run and haven’t allowed more than three goals in any of their six playoff games. Junior goalie Atte Tolvanen is responsible for much that.

The Vihti, Finland, native is 23-9-1 with a 2.25 goals-against average and .906 save percentage, and was named the WCHA’s Goalie of the Year.

Northern Michigan will need that solid play against Michigan Tech, which is 5-1 in its past six games. The loser of Saturday’s final won’t make the NCAA tournament, so Potulny sees no better time to end the Wildcats’ NCAA drought.

“As much as you want to believe this is Year 1 and over the course of the next four or five years you’re going to continually be in these positions, you just never know,” he said. “When you have a good team and you’re playing good hockey, you want to be able to capitalize on it.”

[SteveO]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

Coming into this season I kinda expected that CM would basically replace Kloos more or less. I think he did a decent enough job of that as a freshman but there was no way he was gonna equal Kloos's output from last year with the current dumpster fire of a power play that they run. It's just not possible and it basically explains a significant amount of Sheehy's point drop off this year (he had 12 more points on the PP last year). I think if they had a competent PP you'd see CM basically be close to Kloos's production last year and as a freshman that's really impressive. Expecting more than that says more about a person's expectations than anything (not you but others).

I think many Gopher fans thought CM would be a reload for Kloos too, which illustrates my point that the hype was a bit over the top. By comparison, Schroeder had the best FR season in the last 10 years, and played on a team under somewhat similar conditions in 2008-09 that missed the NCAAs and was basically a .500 conference team with a losing road record.

IIRC during Kloos FR season he wasn't used that often on the PP in 2013-14 (only 2 PPG) vs CM as a key guy on a dysfunctional PP with 4 PPG. Sheehy also had only 2 PPG his FR year. I think for his FR season CM did ok and showcased his natural talent. Where he decides to continue to develop his game remains to be seen. I think he might jump.

I don't normally like to get into "what ifs", but I do see your point that a better PP may have slightly elevated his numbers. Hard to have a deep run in the playoffs without one. I hope they're working hard on it.

[trixR4kids]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

“We want the guys to be able to have offensive freedom,” he added. “We understand that guys are going to turn pucks over, but as long as they’re working to get that thing back, they’re not going to come back to the bench and get a big earful from us.”

Lol, this is like the direct opposite of Lucia and it's refreshing to hear.

If you listen to the interviews with Lucia and Guentzel this year it's been all about getting pucks deep (offensively) and managing the puck and not having turnovers. That all sounds fine until you realize that dumping the puck in and not forechecking hard/effectively is essentially a turnover as is just throwing the puck off the glass out of the D zone. Their rhetoric is almost always about avoiding mistakes rather than incentivizing creativity and taking calculated risks and instead of highlighting the nice plays made offensively they seem to dwell more on the mistakes that wind up in their own net. It just seems like every interview they'd magnify those mistakes rather than focusing more on the big picture, this team has been horrible offensively all year despite the amount of talent it has.

[SteveO]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

Lol, this is like the direct opposite of Lucia and it's refreshing to hear.

If you listen to the interviews with Lucia and Guentzel this year it's been all about getting pucks deep (offensively) and managing the puck and not having turnovers. That all sounds fine until you realize that dumping the puck in and not forechecking hard/effectively is essentially a turnover as is just throwing the puck off the glass out of the D zone. Their rhetoric is almost always about avoiding mistakes rather than incentivizing creativity and taking calculated risks and instead of highlighting the nice plays made offensively they seem to dwell more on the mistakes that wind up in their own net. It just seems like every interview they'd magnify those mistakes rather than focusing more on the big picture, this team has been horrible offensively all year despite the amount of talent it has.

I agree with you here Trix and you know I've mentioned the "dump and chase" disaster that the staff implemented for nearly half the season. Freedom!! The systems must be made for the players, not players for the systems. This needs to be addressed big time.

[ThePowerConference]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

"We aren't going to defend. We attack. Creativity, flow, and speed. The legs feed the wolf." - Herb Brooks

They should be utilizing the space and open-ness of the larger Olympic ice sheet, not dump n chase combined with a fore check. The NHL does that, we don't need more of it at the collegiate level, especially on a big ice sheet.

[D2D]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

Lol, this is like the direct opposite of Lucia and it's refreshing to hear.

If you listen to the interviews with Lucia and Guentzel this year it's been all about getting pucks deep (offensively) and managing the puck and not having turnovers. That all sounds fine until you realize that dumping the puck in and not forechecking hard/effectively is essentially a turnover as is just throwing the puck off the glass out of the D zone. Their rhetoric is almost always about avoiding mistakes rather than incentivizing creativity and taking calculated risks and instead of highlighting the nice plays made offensively they seem to dwell more on the mistakes that wind up in their own net. It just seems like every interview they'd magnify those mistakes rather than focusing more on the big picture, this team has been horrible offensively all year despite the amount of talent it has.

I could not agree more, trixR4kids. Despite all the emphasis on not turning the puck over, they've still committed way too many in the defensive zone, resulting in prime, uncontested scoring opportunities for the other team. Meanwhile, at the other end, with the over-emphasis on "getting pucks deep", the number of prime scoring opportunities (and goals for) have declined substantially.

I also like Potulny's emphasis on creativity - refreshing as you say. I don't think there's any doubt that our skill guys would be "creating" more goals (and having more fun) under his system.

[trixR4kids]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

I think many Gopher fans thought CM would be a reload for Kloos too, which illustrates my point that the hype was a bit over the top. By comparison, Schroeder had the best FR season in the last 10 years, and played on a team under somewhat similar conditions in 2008-09 that missed the NCAAs and was basically a .500 conference team with a losing road record.

I think the PP wasn't nearly as dysfunctional that year (20.1%, in the top 10) and he did have Stoa as a linemate. CM currently has Rem who is a good playmaker with a good shot but is also a sophomore rather than a JR and at least to this point isn't as good of a shooter as Stoa. Look at Stoa's sh% that year compared to Rem's this year and that probably explains much of the difference in assists between Casey and Schroeder (that year). You can basically just look at the next year and see Schroeder's assists drop off a cliff without Stoa (13 less A's in 09-10).

This year I just think of how many times Casey put a tape to tape pass through some tiny sliver only for the guy on the backdoor to fumble it or miss the net entirely. I think it's safe to say that Casey is a better playmaker than Schroeder though he was certainly above average at this level. I just feel like he can accomplish more on his own and make more of his own rush opportunities and dangerous passing sequences.

That 2008 team was better offensively than this one averaging over a half goal more per game, their issue was Kangas being below average that year (which was not totally unexpected regression after the year before). That team wasn't great defensively but Kangas let in a lot of weak goals that year (the one he let in vs Duluth in the FF to start the game being a good example). Overall they ended up about the same record wise but the offense wasn't really the problem like this year's team clearly is.

You're right, hopefully this team can figure out the PP over the long break as they sorta had something going that last game vs PSU. But when they don't even put guys in the right spots or have enough guys who are a threat to actually shoot the puck (especially the point man) it's just kinda doomed to suck. And like I've written about a few times this year you can't discount how much worse this team is at 5v5 it's not just the PP. I think there's reason to believe that they're taking a much more conservative approach at even strength this year and that's affecting everyone's output including CM's. You could put just about anyone in this situation and they'd score less.

It'd be like putting some top scorer from the 2008-10 Capitals (or some other offensively competent NHL team at the time) on one of those old Wild teams lead by Jacques Lemaire, do you think their point total might go down a bit?

I agree with you here Trix and you know I've mentioned the "dump and chase" disaster that the staff implemented for nearly half the season. Freedom!! The systems must be made for the players, not players for the systems. This needs to be addressed big time.

Exactly, this is why I'm not as down on the individual players (CM takes a lot of the brunt obviously) as some.

[trixR4kids]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

"We aren't going to defend. We attack. Creativity, flow, and speed. The legs feed the wolf." - Herb Brooks

They should be utilizing the space and open-ness of the larger Olympic ice sheet, not dump n chase combined with a fore check. The NHL does that, we don't need more of it at the collegiate level, especially on a big ice sheet.

All good points. I think this is sorta what causes some of the issues when they transition between ice sheets. On Mariucci's you probably can't forecheck quite as aggressively because the D just has a lot more space to exit the zone cleanly and so you'd open yourself up a bit defensively with a hard forecheck after a dump in. On NHL ice this isn't nearly as much of a concern and you're actually better off sending in more forecheckers as aggressively as possible, there's almost an opportunity cost of not doing so in terms of offense and maybe even defense.

[Tipsy McStagger]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

Do Gopher fans really think that Potulny is even going to be much of a change from Lucia? He came up through Lucia and his sole coaching experience until this year was under Lucia.

[Koho]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

Exactly, this is why I'm not as down on the individual players (CM takes a lot of the brunt obviously) as some.

There is plenty of blame for them too. The games in which they looked their worst, they were clearly not giving the effort, getting beat to most pucks. Not just after dumps in the offensive end, but in their own end as well. Doesn't matter what system you have in those situations. What they need most coming out of this long break (and I am not confident a long break is the best way to produce this) is to step up the effort and realize that only way they win games is by outworking the opponent.