Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

[D2D]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

NCAA appearance (most likely) and an early exit. In my words, that's simply good enough for appearances, and not what this program is all about.

Based on their dismal finish I'm pessimistic that the Gophers, assuming they make the tournament, would advance beyond the first round. If that proves to be the case, I'm with Brenthoven: that's simply not good enough for Minnesota when it comes to men's hockey, and yes I do understand the reality of parity in today's game. I'm still hoping like hell that the Gophers:
(a) first get into the NCAA tournament (likely, but barely) and
(b) advance to the Frozen Four (unlikely)
but I think even the most rabid and loyal Gopher men's hockey fan will be disappointed if they don't at least finish somewhere in between (a) and (b).

While not a litmus test, just how far the Gophers advance this season will surely be taken into account in determining whether or not Don Lucia will remain Minnesota's head coach going forward. You can only assume the players are aware of the situation, so we'll see how hard and how well they play for their coach (and for themselves) in that first game match-up.

[5mn_Major]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

Based upon the stats I cited, how good is it?

Steve, here's the long and short of it.

Don's teams have performed in the top 15 teams in the country. But a couple of things. First, his teams should. The state of Minnesota is the strongest recruiting grounds in the country and based on a per person basis, arguably the world. In fact, there are 7 teams of the top 14 or so in the hunt for NCAAs with their top strategy (or darn close to it) is to recruit our state. Not only are the Gophers in the state itself, but we are the namesake for the state...and in fact, the only D1 school in the state, a member of the premier Big Ten, an excellent academic school and located in the Twin Cities which has an excellent quality of life. So we recruit extremely well...but we should arguably recruit in the top 3 whenever we have a crop coming in and as a result, us doing pretty well is not a surprise. Frankly, its major red flag that we can't recruit top players anywhere else in the country...ever. You could claim Robson, but that was a fluke when he just happened to miss a plane and visited when he was forced to spend the night here.

Again with the backdrop of so many natural recruiting advantages, we appear to underperform when it comes time to hit the ice. In recent history, we've been challenged to win much outside of the conference. I don't have the ineptitude record against some of the local teams...but its been quite bad. And outside of a couple of games (North Dakota a couple of years ago), we've had a difficult time beating teams in the play offs ranked at our level or even lower than us. Not sure why that is, but the Don's and Mike's mannerisms always appears somewhere between disconnected, aloof, lethargic and angry. That may not be reality...but the results on the ice signal that often there appears to be a chemistry problem. This year we had a fantastically talented team - one the best in a long time. It ain't over yet, but they waay underperformed. It must be chemistry. Lastly, the whole competitive slate has gone boring. Our competition of interesting and state historic rivals has been replaced by milk toast competitors further east somewhere - the addition of ND furthers this. And many pundits believe that that in large part is causing a crisis in attendance and weakening fanbase. Now Don can't be blamed for most of this...but it does signal that the program needs a kick in the butt.

[SteveO]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

Steve, here's the long and short of it.

Don's teams have performed in the top 15 teams in the country. But a couple of things. First, his teams should. The state of Minnesota is the strongest recruiting grounds in the country and based on a per person basis, arguably the world. In fact, there are 7 teams of the top 14 or so in the hunt for NCAAs with their top strategy (or darn close to it) is to recruit our state. Not only are the Gophers in the state itself, but we are the namesake for the state...and in fact, the only D1 school in the state, a member of the premier Big Ten, an excellent academic school and located in the Twin Cities which has an excellent quality of life. So we recruit extremely well...but we should arguably recruit in the top 3 whenever we have a crop coming in and as a result, us doing pretty well is not a surprise. Frankly, its major red flag that we can't recruit top players anywhere else in the country...ever. You could claim Robson, but that was a fluke when he just happened to miss a plane and visited when he was forced to spend the night here.

Again with the backdrop of so many natural recruiting advantages, we appear to underperform when it comes time to hit the ice. In recent history, we've been challenged to win much outside of the conference. I don't have the ineptitude record against some of the local teams...but its been quite bad. And outside of a couple of games (North Dakota a couple of years ago), we've had a difficult time beating teams in the play offs ranked at our level or even lower than us. Not sure why that is, but the Don's and Mike's mannerisms always appears somewhere between disconnected, aloof, lethargic and angry. That may not be reality...but the results on the ice signal that often there appears to be a chemistry problem. This year we had a fantastically talented team - one the best in a long time. It ain't over yet, but they waay underperformed. It must be chemistry. Lastly, the whole competitive slate has gone boring. Our competition of interesting and state historic rivals has been replaced by milk toast competitors further east somewhere - the addition of ND furthers this. And many pundits believe that that in large part is causing a crisis in attendance and weakening fanbase. Now Don can't be blamed for most of this...but it does signal that the program needs a kick in the butt.

Quality post. In retrospect, this season was mostly fraught with key returning guys who were expected to step up, but underperformed. I think Casey Mittelstadt is a very talented hockey player, but perhaps the hype was a bit much. His output was about half of Thomas Vanek's freshman season (CM/11-19-30 vs TV/31-31-62). Obviously that's due in part to CM's supporting cast underperforming as well.

2016-17 vs 2017-18 Pts/Game %

Pitlick: -7%
Gates: +11%
Novak: +6%
Sheehy: -53%
Szmatula (SR): -57%
Bristedt (SR): -71%
Johnson (SR): +1%

Goaltending has been a surprise this season with Schierhorn losing his stuff, and Robson giving up 12 goals in his final three games of the season.

We lacked a genuine offensive D which has been an important weapon in past seasons. I thought Johnson's game improved, but his numbers didn't show it. Nanne has offensive skill, but needs to improve as a two-way player.

At the end of the day, no one should blame Don Lucia ad the coaching staff for all of this. I think you're exactly right, it's a chemistry issue not mainly a coaching issue. It's possible to throw a bunch a NHL draft picks together, but when push comes to shove they just don't click for whatever reason. Sometimes personality clashes/egos in the locker can eat away at a team's momentum which they had at a couple junctures in the season.

Lucia's tried adjusting lineups (as he likes to do) as in years past, but this year all combinations were temporary blips on the radar with no consistent scoring line combo at all. So the end result is they're 2 games above .500 and that's what they earned.

[Koho]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

Steve, here's the long and short of it.

Don's teams have performed in the top 15 teams in the country. But a couple of things. First, his teams should. The state of Minnesota is the strongest recruiting grounds in the country and based on a per person basis, arguably the world. In fact, there are 7 teams of the top 14 or so in the hunt for NCAAs with their top strategy (or darn close to it) is to recruit our state. Not only are the Gophers in the state itself, but we are the namesake for the state...and in fact, the only D1 school in the state, a member of the premier Big Ten, an excellent academic school and located in the Twin Cities which has an excellent quality of life. So we recruit extremely well...but we should arguably recruit in the top 3 whenever we have a crop coming in and as a result, us doing pretty well is not a surprise. Frankly, its major red flag that we can't recruit top players anywhere else in the country...ever. You could claim Robson, but that was a fluke when he just happened to miss a plane and visited when he was forced to spend the night here.

Again with the backdrop of so many natural recruiting advantages, we appear to underperform when it comes time to hit the ice. In recent history, we've been challenged to win much outside of the conference. I don't have the ineptitude record against some of the local teams...but its been quite bad. And outside of a couple of games (North Dakota a couple of years ago), we've had a difficult time beating teams in the play offs ranked at our level or even lower than us. Not sure why that is, but the Don's and Mike's mannerisms always appears somewhere between disconnected, aloof, lethargic and angry. That may not be reality...but the results on the ice signal that often there appears to be a chemistry problem. This year we had a fantastically talented team - one the best in a long time. It ain't over yet, but they waay underperformed. It must be chemistry. Lastly, the whole competitive slate has gone boring. Our competition of interesting and state historic rivals has been replaced by milk toast competitors further east somewhere - the addition of ND furthers this. And many pundits believe that that in large part is causing a crisis in attendance and weakening fanbase. Now Don can't be blamed for most of this...but it does signal that the program needs a kick in the butt.

But as has been pointed out, the recruiting advantage MN still has in MN is that they get a lot of the players that they want. What has changed is that 20 years ago, that meant picking from the top 18 year olds in the state. Kids who were ready, or close to ready to step into college. You had a good idea of what they might bring to the team when you got them to commit. Now, the playing field has changed. MN is still getting a lot of the kids they want, but they have to get them at 15, when there is no way to know their trajectory. There will be a lot more kids who don't pan out with this strategy, so being able to stay in the top 10 annually is much more difficult. One can look at some players now playing for other teams and call them 'misses' for MN, but you really have to look at what they were like when they were recruited compared to the MN kids. Unless one has a crystal ball to see into the future, It is not fair to cherry pick individual players for comparison. (Now if there is a good coach who does have such a crystal ball, then I would be all for canning Lucia to hire that person.)

And I don't know that MN has an inability to recruit players from elsewhere. I don't know about your "red flag". Given the talent in MN you describe, it seems it is pretty rare they go for those players. (And it is not like Robson is the only non-MN player on the team.) And when it is known around the country that most players going to MN are from MN, don't you think that most kids start looking at other schools early on. Not necessarily a sign of a bad rap for MN.

And you state the performance against certain schools as evidence of under-performing, and yes, it isn't fun doing so poorly against other MN teams. But the overall stats that SteveO listed show MN right up there with all the other teams that people like to list as examples of how everyone else is doing well compared to MN. I would agree that this year the team on paper looks better than the one that has been on the ice for 75% of the year. But if you look at overall performance over a longer period, I don't see how people think that removal of Lucia is an automatic thing or that on-ice performance will necessarily improve if he is replaced.

Replacing Lucia to get excitement around the program could have an effect, if the right people are hired. But if parity and the Gophs being a top 15 team annually instead of a top 8 team is the new reality due to recruiting changes, how long will that effect really last? I think that the attitude of the coaches is a very minor factor, if at all, in when people choose to attend. (I can't tell you how many hockey games I've attended in my life, and I never once considered who the coach was in deciding to attend.) Attendance is declining at most programs as it is for MLB and NFL. I think part of this is a societal shift, probably tied to ease and cost of watching from home, and more alternatives for entertainment. (B1G probably plays a part too.) Winning teams will always have better attendance than losing ones, but I just don't believe any program will be a national contender every year the way recruiting is set up. And if you can't expect a team to improve with a coaching switch, why would a school replace a coach that is among the best that has ever coached there? I don't see making the move just because 'it has grown stale'. If the message has really grown stale and the play is suffering because of it, wouldn't you expect SteveO's stats to bear that out?

And once again, I am not a Lucia worshiper. I have always cringed when I have heard rumors about what some players think of him (but in many cases that has come from parents of players from other teams or people who don't like him, so hard to separate out facts). I am guessing the Herb Brooks 'hate me' approach doesn't work now, the way it did in the 70's and 80's. But on the other hand, I don't feel like there is clear evidence this has hurt recruiting, if it is true. The administration should have a better handle on this than us. And this year has been a major disappointment for me, given my preseason expectations. But I also recognize that while this team has a lot of drafted D, who NHL scouts thought had a lot of potential, the often mediocre play of those D players play a part. In many cases it is just a lack of ability, not necessarily poor coaching that has led to problems. Those players just haven't progressed as much as expected. (And people will jump to blame coaches, but plenty of D have done very well in the past progressing with these coaches.)

So to me, while I am frustrated with this year, and the fact the Gophs aren't a national contender annually, I don't know that a coaching replacement will ever bring back the glory years. (Maybe if Lucia successfully lobbies for a minimum commitment age of say, 17, we can return to those glory years.) And I don't think the evidence is there to suggest it is an automatic decision as some suggest.

[The Rube]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

G Money. Too green.

IMO: yeah, right. Just sayin'.

/driveby post

[Rabid Gopher]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

Just saw Sammy Walker won Mr. Hockey. I'm not trying to imply anything, but this kid was meant to be a Gopher

http://www.startribune.com/sammy-wal...key/476505933/

[5mn_Major]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

But as has been pointed out, the recruiting advantage MN still has in MN is that they get a lot of the players that they want. What has changed is that 20 years ago, that meant picking from the top 18 year olds in the state. Kids who were ready, or close to ready to step into college. You had a good idea of what they might bring to the team when you got them to commit. Now, the playing field has changed. MN is still getting a lot of the kids they want, but they have to get them at 15, when there is no way to know their trajectory. There will be a lot more kids who don't pan out with this strategy, so being able to stay in the top 10 annually is much more difficult. One can look at some players now playing for other teams and call them 'misses' for MN, but you really have to look at what they were like when they were recruited compared to the MN kids. Unless one has a crystal ball to see into the future, It is not fair to cherry pick individual players for comparison. (Now if there is a good coach who does have such a crystal ball, then I would be all for canning Lucia to hire that person.)

And I don't know that MN has an inability to recruit players from elsewhere. I don't know about your "red flag". Given the talent in MN you describe, it seems it is pretty rare they go for those players. (And it is not like Robson is the only non-MN player on the team.) And when it is known around the country that most players going to MN are from MN, don't you think that most kids start looking at other schools early on. Not necessarily a sign of a bad rap for MN.

You argue that we get who we want...but that one can't predict how a 15 yo is going to turn out. So your premise then must be that although we more often get first pick of 15 yos. ...that our kids quite frequently turn out to be worse players than those of UMD, SCSU and MSU. For this to be true, we'd have to have a lot of kids tank and for quite a few years. That seems unlikely. Likewise, we end up with far more draft picks than those schools. And NHL teams are pretty smart on talent and their picks are not from when the kids are 15...those picks are based on talent and from when they're ready to take the college ice.

No...it doesn't seem possible that our 15 yo kids are diving in talent relative to other schools to that extent.

And I'm not suggesting that the coaching staff chase kids from other parts of the country. But unless your name is Robson or the kid played hockey here...they will not come here.

And you state the performance against certain schools as evidence of under-performing, and yes, it isn't fun doing so poorly against other MN teams. But the overall stats that SteveO listed show MN right up there with all the other teams that people like to list as examples of how everyone else is doing well compared to MN. I would agree that this year the team on paper looks better than the one that has been on the ice for 75% of the year. But if you look at overall performance over a longer period, I don't see how people think that removal of Lucia is an automatic thing or that on-ice performance will necessarily improve if he is replaced.

The only reason that our stats look so good is that the Big Ten had a disasterous 5 or so years. OSU was probably on par with their usual performance...but Wisconsin, Michigan and MI State had terrible stretches. I doubt they collectively reached .500 vs. how many NCs did that group have in the previous 20 years? 5? That conference schedule of struggling teams represented 12 games plus post season...or approximately half of our games. The rest of our games were largely against cupcakes and in state rivals (and we know how that went).

Again, I have been a big supporter until this year and am now not that strong in this conviction. If we make a change, we have to be fairly confident we can get an upgrade. But there have been too many years where personnel has changed...and we still seem to have 'chemistry' issues. Face it, we just can't say Lucia and co. represents a great coaching staff like they were when they came on board.

[gopher wes]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

Based on their dismal finish I'm pessimistic that the Gophers, assuming they make the tournament, would advance beyond the first round. If that proves to be the case, I'm with Brenthoven: that's simply not good enough for Minnesota when it comes to men's hockey, and yes I do understand the reality of parity in today's game. I'm still hoping like hell that the Gophers:
(a) first get into the NCAA tournament (likely, but barely) and
(b) advance to the Frozen Four (unlikely)
but I think even the most rabid and loyal Gopher men's hockey fan will be disappointed if they don't at least finish somewhere in between (a) and (b).

While not a litmus test, just how far the Gophers advance this season will surely be taken into account in determining whether or not Don Lucia will remain Minnesota's head coach going forward. You can only assume the players are aware of the situation, so we'll see how hard and how well they play for their coach (and for themselves) in that first game match-up.

I said this on GPL last week but I will repeat here. I hope the Gophers make the tournament and I hope they somehow find their way to St Paul. But I'd be very curious to see how they make it there if they do. If there is an overall change in approach and gameplan, is it because Lucia & Co had the boys ready to go and they had a great few weeks of practice during the time off? Or did they win a couple games because Robson got hot and stole a couple games for the Gophers? I would hope if it is the latter that we would take a look at a new coach. It's time. Coyle has been quoted as needing to see postseason success in order to extend Lucia's contract, but I'd hope Lucia doesn't get an extension based on a couple fluky games in a one and done tourney.

Heck, even if this team somehow miraculously wins it all this year I'd say that it's time.

[D2D]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

Just saw Sammy Walker won Mr. Hockey. I'm not trying to imply anything, but this kid was meant to be a Gopher

http://www.startribune.com/sammy-wal...key/476505933/

I went to see all the games on Thursday and watched the rest on TV. Walker was unbelievably good on Thursday, figuring in on 5 of Edina's 7 goals. Very unselfish and creative, with several tremendous setup passes. But in the semifinal a very physical Duluth East team did a great job in limiting his effectiveness, holding him to just one assist in East's 4-2 victory. Yes, a very small sample size, but it left me with the impression that Sammy, who's on the smaller side, could struggle some as he adjusts to the much bigger and stronger D that he'll be up against at the next level. He obviously has tremendous speed and skill, and after he does make the adjustment - hopefully sooner rather than later - he should become a real treat for Gopher fans to watch...possibly emerge to become the Gophers' version of BC's Johnny Gaudreau?

[D2D]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

OK, after all the league playoff games played this past weekend, the Gophers sit at No. 13 in the Pairwise. Question: has anyone done a recalculation of the team's chance of making it into the tournament? Is it a better or a worse chance than it was prior to these latest results? I see that:

1. In the Atlantic, only the winner of their tournament is in.
2. The B1G is down to two teams that were already in, Ohio State and Notre Dame, so no upsets there.
3. In the ECAC semi's it's #21 Princeton vs. #2 Cornell, and #10 Clarkson vs. #26 Harvard. We obviously hope either Cornell or Clarkson wins the ECAC.
4. In Hockey East it's #18 BU vs. #15 BC, and #8 Providence vs. #7 Northeastern. Hopefully the winner of the second game will go on to win the final.
5. The NCHC matchups are #8 UMD vs. #4 Denver, and #14 North Dakota vs. #1 SCSU. Anyone but UND, please.
6. Sad to see Mankato get knocked in the WCHA. That gives the league a second spot, either #23 Michigan Tech or #16 Northern Michigan will also qualify.

I did this more for my own benefit as much as anything, as I'm sure someone has already done a much more thorough analysis of where the Gophers sit. I know the current Gopher's No. 13 position could go up or down depending on these final results, but it would seem the remaining results in the ECAC, Hockey East and the NCHC are key. Any other comments would be appreciated.

P.S. Assuming the Gophers do get in, do you think the winter-break like idle period will be a benefit (rest), or will hurt (rusty?) how they play?

[Rabid Gopher]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

I just ran the pairwise predictor and the Gophers end up 13 and out of the NCAA with the last team in being....you guessed it, State Penn at number 12. Classic.

[SJHovey]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

OK, after all the league playoff games played this past weekend, the Gophers sit at No. 13 in the Pairwise. Question: has anyone done a recalculation of the team's chance of making it into the tournament? Is it a better or a worse chance than it was prior to these latest results? I see that:

1. In the Atlantic, only the winner of their tournament is in.
2. The B1G is down to two teams that were already in, Ohio State and Notre Dame, so no upsets there.
3. In the ECAC semi's it's #21 Princeton vs. #2 Cornell, and #10 Clarkson vs. #26 Harvard. We obviously hope either Cornell or Clarkson wins the ECAC.
4. In Hockey East it's #18 BU vs. #15 BC, and #8 Providence vs. #7 Northeastern. Hopefully the winner of the second game will go on to win the final.
5. The NCHC matchups are #8 UMD vs. #4 Denver, and #14 North Dakota vs. #1 SCSU. Anyone but UND, please.
6. Sad to see Mankato get knocked in the WCHA. That gives the league a second spot, either #23 Michigan Tech or #16 Northern Michigan will also qualify.

I did this more for my own benefit as much as anything, as I'm sure someone has already done a much more thorough analysis of where the Gophers sit. I know the current Gopher's No. 13 position could go up or down depending on these final results, but it would seem the remaining results in the ECAC, Hockey East and the NCHC are key. Any other comments would be appreciated.

P.S. Assuming the Gophers do get in, do you think the winter-break like idle period will be a benefit (rest), or will hurt (rusty?) how they play?

I don't think it's so much the gophers going up or down. They're probably pretty locked in at the #13 spot. Teams like Clarkson and Duluth can fall behind them, and someone like North Dakota with two to play may creep ahead of them, but I suspect that in the vast majority of the scenarios MN ends up right about #13.

The key to MN's chances of getting in are the NCHC, HEA, and ECAC outcomes. If those tournaments are won by teams like North Dakota, BU, BC, Harvard or Princeton, MN is in trouble. But it's going to take more than just one upset.

[trixR4kids]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

Comparing CM’s output to Vanek’s is doing it wrong. It’d be almost as bad as comparing Gretzky’s output to anyone currently playing.

[Slap Shot]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

Just saw Sammy Walker won Mr. Hockey. I'm not trying to imply anything, but this kid was meant to be a Gopher

http://www.startribune.com/sammy-wal...key/476505933/

He'll be a great one I think, but I really wish they could have got Brink to follow his dad to campus.

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Thread 2017-18 Part II

OK, after all the league playoff games played this past weekend, the Gophers sit at No. 13 in the Pairwise. Question: has anyone done a recalculation of the team's chance of making it into the tournament? Is it a better or a worse chance than it was prior to these latest results? I see that:

1. In the Atlantic, only the winner of their tournament is in.
2. The B1G is down to two teams that were already in, Ohio State and Notre Dame, so no upsets there.
3. In the ECAC semi's it's #21 Princeton vs. #2 Cornell, and #10 Clarkson vs. #26 Harvard. We obviously hope either Cornell or Clarkson wins the ECAC.
4. In Hockey East it's #18 BU vs. #15 BC, and #8 Providence vs. #7 Northeastern. Hopefully the winner of the second game will go on to win the final.
5. The NCHC matchups are #8 UMD vs. #4 Denver, and #14 North Dakota vs. #1 SCSU. Anyone but UND, please.
6. Sad to see Mankato get knocked in the WCHA. That gives the league a second spot, either #23 Michigan Tech or #16 Northern Michigan will also qualify.

I did this more for my own benefit as much as anything, as I'm sure someone has already done a much more thorough analysis of where the Gophers sit. I know the current Gopher's No. 13 position could go up or down depending on these final results, but it would seem the remaining results in the ECAC, Hockey East and the NCHC are key. Any other comments would be appreciated.

P.S. Assuming the Gophers do get in, do you think the winter-break like idle period will be a benefit (rest), or will hurt (rusty?) how they play?

Sounds about right. There are two teams that will jump us (Tech/NMU and AHA), and three more tournaments where they could jump us (Princeton and Harvard/ 50% of teams; Nodak/25%; BU, BC/ 50%) and we can only afford three jumps. So if BC/BU, NoDak, and Princeton/Harvard all win, we're out. What's that? 93.75% chance we're in?

ETA: Actually not all three of those have to happen. Just 2 or more. So somewhat lower.

ETA2: It looks like there's a significant impact on what happens with Harvard/Clarkson since we played Clarkson twice and since Clarkson is a bubble team when you play the scenarios out. Clarkson winning even one game is probably a bad deal for us, especially if they lose the next game. This is a minefield...

Dahl puts us at 76%. There's your final number.