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Thread: UNH Wildcats 2017/2018 - Umile's Last Stand - The Grand Finale

  1. #101
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    Re: UNH Wildcats 2017/2018 - Umile's Last Stand - The Grand Finale

    Quote Originally Posted by HockeyRef View Post
    So now that's what 12 games that could have gone either way?!? I know woulda coulda shoulda!
    Curious how you got to the number 12. Don't you mean 14 games which could have gone either way?
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  2. #102
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    Re: UNH Wildcats 2017/2018 - Umile's Last Stand - The Grand Finale

    Quote Originally Posted by Dan View Post
    Maybe. We've been touting one-goal losses and ties as hope for four years now. I think when the sample size gets this large you have to wonder if the team just isn't good enough to win close games. Here are totals for one-goal losses and ties the past four years...

    2015 - 9
    2016 - 16
    2017 - 9
    2018 - 12

    Do those numbers indicate a team that's unlucky? Or a team that loses a lot?
    I suspect we agree here. I've always thought margin of loss is pretty irrelevant at this level. Lots of one goal games become two or three goal games due to ENG's. A loss is a loss is a loss. If you're in a lot of close games and lose most of them, there's no bonus points. Sometimes better teams simply can coast with a lead, and turn the switch back on if/when you equalize. Or sometimes get a little lazy or complacent, holding a multi-goal lead and giving up an ultimately meaningless late goal to narrow the margin.

    Talent.

    Coaching.

    Leadership.

    If you get better in all three areas, those close losses turn into close wins. Not that complicated.
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  3. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chuck Murray View Post
    I suspect we agree here. I've always thought margin of loss is pretty irrelevant at this level. Lots of one goal games become two or three goal games due to ENG's. A loss is a loss is a loss. If you're in a lot of close games and lose most of them, there's no bonus points. Sometimes better teams simply can coast with a lead, and turn the switch back on if/when you equalize. Or sometimes get a little lazy or complacent, holding a multi-goal lead and giving up an ultimately meaningless late goal to narrow the margin.

    Talent.

    Coaching.

    Leadership.

    If you get better in all three areas, those close losses turn into close wins. Not that complicated.
    I do believe that some teams can look at one-goal losses and see a pattern of misfortune. However, if a team truly has been unlucky than those close losses will even out at some point. If they don't even out over a larger sample than you have to wonder if you're just not that good. A rushed look at UNH's record in one goal games over the last four years indicates a 7-28 mark. That's an awful record in close games over a large sample size - and yes, indicates a team that simply loses a lot IMO...

    The stat that I hate is the old team record when leading/trailing after one or two periods. The better team often wins the first period and the first two and the game! Those stats are completely useless. Almost every single team will show a good record when leading after two - because they're likely the better team (or playing better) in all those games they led after two. They trumpet those stats on TV/radio broadcasts all the time as if they mean anything. It's a major eye roll level of commentary...

    Case in point - as bad as this UNH team is they're 9-1-2 when they lead after two. Find me a team that doesn't have gaudy numbers in that scenario...
    Last edited by Dan; 02-03-2018 at 06:07 PM.

  4. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by Greg Ambrose View Post
    Eighty per cent of the game was played in the UNH end. There better be some offense in the pipeline because what they have right now is pathetic.
    Not yet...

    Souza Recruits Goal Scoring in Jr. (As of 1/31)
    Crookshank - 32 GP / 17 G
    Stevenson - 30 GP / 7 G
    Wazny - 34 GP / 6 G
    Verrier - 30 GP / 3 G
    Green - 31 GP / 2 G
    Bahn - 30 GP / 1 G
    Totals: 187 GP / 36 G (.19 goals per game)

    Borek Holdovers Jr Goals
    Cippolone - 37 GP / 17 G **
    Esposito - 35 GP / 9 G
    Totals: 72 GP / 26 G
    Combined Totals: 259 GP / 62 G (.24 goals per game)

    ** weak Jr League (9 goals in 63 career USHL games)

    Possible/Likely Ability for Prep Level Scorers Translating to JRs
    Pierson - 23 G / 29 G (possible)
    Stutzle - 24 G / 31 G (likely)
    McEllhaney - 11 G / 23 G (unlikely)
    Sweeney - 6 G / 19 G (unlikely)
    Last edited by Dan; 02-03-2018 at 06:29 PM.

  5. #105
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan View Post
    I do believe that some teams can look at one-goal losses and see a pattern of misfortune. However, if a team truly has been unlucky than those close losses will even out at some point. If they don't even out over a larger sample than you have to wonder if you're just not that good. A rushed look at UNH's record in one goal games over the last four years indicates a 7-28 mark. That's an awful record in close games over a large sample size - and yes, indicates a team that simply loses a lot IMO...

    The stat that I hate is the old team record when leading/trailing after one or two periods. The better team often wins the first period and the first two and the game! Those stats are completely useless. Almost every single team will show a good record when leading after two - because they're likely the better team (or playing better) in all those games they led after two. They trumpet those stats on TV/radio broadcasts all the time as if they mean anything. It's a major eye roll level of commentary...

    Case in point - as bad as this UNH team is they're 9-1-2 when they lead after two. Find me a team that doesn't have gaudy numbers in that scenario...
    What is Cats' record when scoring first?

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    Re: UNH Wildcats 2017/2018 - Umile's Last Stand - The Grand Finale

    We were JUST saying how great it would be if Kohei would score and just like that....

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    Quote Originally Posted by Snively65 View Post
    What is Cats' record when scoring first?
    6-3-4

    ---

    See UNH is finally playing a team they're better than and as a result they'll score first, lead after one, lead after two and lead at the end of the game!! And all those stats will illustrate is that UNH remains better against teams worse then them than against teams better than them...

    Good for Sato, though. Great pass by Max Gildon.
    Last edited by Dan; 02-03-2018 at 06:44 PM.

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    Re: UNH Wildcats 2017/2018 - Umile's Last Stand - The Grand Finale

    Ho hum 2nd

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan View Post
    6-3-4

    ---

    See UNH is finally playing a team they're better than and as a result they'll score first, lead after one, lead after two and lead at the end of the game!! And all those stats will illustrate is that UNH remains better against teams worse then them than against teams better than them...

    Good for Sato, though. Great pass by Max Gildon.
    Hmm, hope that the Cats do not try to sit back on their 2-1 lead in the third.

    In contrast to the low-scoring affair at Lake Whitt tonight, I just watched HRef's alma mater lose only their second conference game of the season 7-5 to Fitchburg State in Plymouth (20-mile rather than 180-mile RT drive for me). PSU gave up five PP goals, with 4 on two 5-minute majors; no SMT's they. Something like 90+ total SOG in the game.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Snively65 View Post
    Hmm, hope that the Cats do not try to sit back on their 2-1 lead in the third.

    In contrast to the low-scoring affair at Lake Whitt tonight, I just watched HRef's alma mater lose only their second conference game of the season 7-5 to Fitchburg State in Plymouth (20-mile rather than 180-mile RT drive for me). PSU gave up five PP goals, with 4 on two 5-minute majors; no SMT's they. Something like 90+ total SOG in the game.
    I'll take the blame if they lose - as it will be solely a result of me mentioning situational stats in the first place...

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    Re: UNH Wildcats 2017/2018 - Umile's Last Stand - The Grand Finale

    'Cats on a 5:00 PP from a cheap shot by UMass' Gaudette

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    Re: UNH Wildcats 2017/2018 - Umile's Last Stand - The Grand Finale

    Welp finally a W!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by HockeyRef View Post
    Welp finally a W!!!
    Woo hoo!

    No. 596 for Dick, right, mookie?

    And, Dan is off the hook. :-)

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    Kelleher traded from Milwaukee to Texas...

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    Re: UNH Wildcats 2017/2018 - Umile's Last Stand - The Grand Finale

    Watched most of the game. Got a laugh out of the announcers comment that the Beanpot was an “underated tournament.” It’s only been around for 65 years, featuring teams that have won a dozen national championships. And, btw, this year we may finally have that first ever Northeastern- Harvard final.

    But I digress. Watching the five minute PP innthe third, I was continually struck by how lackadaisical UNH passing is. No one snaps the puck when passing. No one seizes an opening and skates to space. I know the talent is mediocre but can’t they even make an attempt at positive hockey. Glad they won. Tirone should be POW.

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    Re: UNH Wildcats 2017/2018 - Umile's Last Stand - The Grand Finale

    Quote Originally Posted by Dan View Post
    The stat that I hate is the old team record when leading/trailing after one or two periods. The better team often wins the first period and the first two and the game! Those stats are completely useless. Almost every single team will show a good record when leading after two - because they're likely the better team (or playing better) in all those games they led after two. They trumpet those stats on TV/radio broadcasts all the time as if they mean anything. It's a major eye roll level of commentary...

    Case in point - as bad as this UNH team is they're 9-1-2 when they lead after two. Find me a team that doesn't have gaudy numbers in that scenario...
    Precisely. Which is why I've always been a proponent of getting an early lead and playing from a position of strength, where the longer and deeper into the game you can maintain a lead, the better your chances of bagging W's. Rendering SOG's as a secondary indicator and relatively (if not entirely) meaningless by comparison.

    Good weekend for the 'Cats, some signs of life, and the Quest lives on for another weekend ...
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    Re: UNH Wildcats 2017/2018 - Umile's Last Stand - The Grand Finale

    Quote Originally Posted by Chuck Murray View Post
    Precisely. Which is why I've always been a proponent of getting an early lead and playing from a position of strength, where the longer and deeper into the game you can maintain a lead, the better your chances of bagging W's. Rendering SOG's as a secondary indicator and relatively (if not entirely) meaningless by comparison.

    Good weekend for the 'Cats, some signs of life, and the Quest lives on for another weekend ...
    We have a mid week game. I am not overlooking that.

    Not next weekend, but it is coming.

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    Re: UNH Wildcats 2017/2018 - Umile's Last Stand - The Grand Finale

    Go pats!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chuck Murray View Post
    Precisely. Which is why I've always been a proponent of getting an early lead and playing from a position of strength, where the longer and deeper into the game you can maintain a lead, the better your chances of bagging W's. Rendering SOG's as a secondary indicator and relatively (if not entirely) meaningless by comparison.

    Good weekend for the 'Cats, some signs of life, and the Quest lives on for another weekend ...
    You've always been a proponent of getting an early lead? That's so profound Chuck. I can hardly contain myself

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    Re: UNH Wildcats 2017/2018 - Umile's Last Stand - The Grand Finale

    According to Dan's post above, we are now 7-4-3 when we score first, winning half of those, and also meaning that we score first half of the time and are 3-9-2 when we do not score first. Perhaps most important is that we avoided the umileation of single digit wins this season.

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