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Thread: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

  1. #81
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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

    Quote Originally Posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
    I'm only talking about D1 conferences
    Just remember that the CHA has as many championship game appearances as does BC, although only half as many as BU does.
    "... And lose, and start again at your beginnings
    And never breathe a word about your loss;" -- Rudyard Kipling

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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

    Quote Originally Posted by ARM View Post
    Just remember that the CHA has as many championship game appearances as does BC, although only half as many as BU does.
    It'll come back to bite me when we play Syracuse/Robert Morris in the first round and lose lol
    Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
    Senior Writer, BC Interruption
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    2017-2018 NCAA Women's Hockey Tournament Pairwise Predictor -- 2018-2019 Coming Soon!
    2017-2018 Men's & Women's GRaNT Computer Rankings -- 2018-2019 Coming Soon!
    2017-2018 BCI Women's Hockey KRACH Calculator -- 2018-2019 Coming Soon!

  3. #83
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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

    Quote Originally Posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
    It'll come back to bite me when we play Syracuse/Robert Morris in the first round and lose lol
    Losing to Mercyhurst in the semis doesn't make it hurt any less.
    "... And lose, and start again at your beginnings
    And never breathe a word about your loss;" -- Rudyard Kipling

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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

    Quote Originally Posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
    there's nothing funny about adding St A's in. it is a joke but not funny

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    #SOAR TonyTheTiger20's Avatar
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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

    Quote Originally Posted by Quiet Riot View Post
    there's nothing funny about adding St A's in. it is a joke but not funny
    I said I don't expect them to be included, what more do you want?? lol
    Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
    Senior Writer, BC Interruption
    Twitter: @Salzano14


    2017-2018 NCAA Women's Hockey Tournament Pairwise Predictor -- 2018-2019 Coming Soon!
    2017-2018 Men's & Women's GRaNT Computer Rankings -- 2018-2019 Coming Soon!
    2017-2018 BCI Women's Hockey KRACH Calculator -- 2018-2019 Coming Soon!

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    #SOAR TonyTheTiger20's Avatar
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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

    Quote Originally Posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
    I have this year's Tournament Predictor ready to go for February 18th but I'm always happy to have some people beta test the new changes before it goes live. If anyone's interested, shoot me an email at grant dot salzano at gmail and I'll send you the spreadsheet.

    The Tournament Predictor is this: https://twitter.com/Salzano14/status/961770250034434048
    I just found out that the independents are actually holding a postseason tournament, so I had to factor that into the calculator. This took a lot of work, and with a lot of work comes a lot of opportunities for errors, so if any of you that reached out before would like to play with the new version just let me know lol
    Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
    Senior Writer, BC Interruption
    Twitter: @Salzano14


    2017-2018 NCAA Women's Hockey Tournament Pairwise Predictor -- 2018-2019 Coming Soon!
    2017-2018 Men's & Women's GRaNT Computer Rankings -- 2018-2019 Coming Soon!
    2017-2018 BCI Women's Hockey KRACH Calculator -- 2018-2019 Coming Soon!

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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

    Did some fun stuff with KRACH to determine the odds of each team winning its conference tournament: https://www.bcinterruption.com/bosto...ton-college-bc
    Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
    Senior Writer, BC Interruption
    Twitter: @Salzano14


    2017-2018 NCAA Women's Hockey Tournament Pairwise Predictor -- 2018-2019 Coming Soon!
    2017-2018 Men's & Women's GRaNT Computer Rankings -- 2018-2019 Coming Soon!
    2017-2018 BCI Women's Hockey KRACH Calculator -- 2018-2019 Coming Soon!

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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

    Quote Originally Posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
    Did some fun stuff with KRACH to determine the odds of each team winning its conference tournament: https://www.bcinterruption.com/bosto...ton-college-bc
    I can't get past the name of this thread. those are 2 words that you can bet have never come out of my mouth. I can't even type them.

    Thank God there's someone here that can figure out the possibilities...and thank God it isn't me.

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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

    Quote Originally Posted by Quiet Riot View Post
    I can't get past the name of this thread. those are 2 words that you can bet have never come out of my mouth. I can't even type them.

    Thank God there's someone here that can figure out the possibilities...and thank God it isn't me.
    If you think that's good, you'll love the Pairwise Predictor:

    http://board.uscho.com/showthread.ph...ctor&p=6607775
    Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
    Senior Writer, BC Interruption
    Twitter: @Salzano14


    2017-2018 NCAA Women's Hockey Tournament Pairwise Predictor -- 2018-2019 Coming Soon!
    2017-2018 Men's & Women's GRaNT Computer Rankings -- 2018-2019 Coming Soon!
    2017-2018 BCI Women's Hockey KRACH Calculator -- 2018-2019 Coming Soon!

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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

    Another bracketology:

    https://www.bcinterruption.com/bosto...lgate-clarkson

    I was lazy and just completely ignored Saint Anselm this time. I'll include them next week just for funsies.
    Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
    Senior Writer, BC Interruption
    Twitter: @Salzano14


    2017-2018 NCAA Women's Hockey Tournament Pairwise Predictor -- 2018-2019 Coming Soon!
    2017-2018 Men's & Women's GRaNT Computer Rankings -- 2018-2019 Coming Soon!
    2017-2018 BCI Women's Hockey KRACH Calculator -- 2018-2019 Coming Soon!

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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

    Conference tournament odds: https://www.bcinterruption.com/bosto...n-four-bracket

    Interestingly, BC is the most likely team to win its conference tournament, but Hockey East is also by far the most likely conference to boot Minnesota from the tournament.
    Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
    Senior Writer, BC Interruption
    Twitter: @Salzano14


    2017-2018 NCAA Women's Hockey Tournament Pairwise Predictor -- 2018-2019 Coming Soon!
    2017-2018 Men's & Women's GRaNT Computer Rankings -- 2018-2019 Coming Soon!
    2017-2018 BCI Women's Hockey KRACH Calculator -- 2018-2019 Coming Soon!

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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

    Quote Originally Posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
    Conference tournament odds: https://www.bcinterruption.com/bosto...n-four-bracket

    Interestingly, BC is the most likely team to win its conference tournament, but Hockey East is also by far the most likely conference to boot Minnesota from the tournament.
    wow is my head spinning. I was just thinking...when I was in high school I would always hound the smart nerdy kids. had I known that I'd be on this board 38 years later reading all of this stuff I surely would have studied harder in math. WOW.

    some figure it and some build it

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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

    Quote Originally Posted by Quiet Riot View Post
    wow is my head spinning. I was just thinking...when I was in high school I would always hound the smart nerdy kids. had I known that I'd be on this board 38 years later reading all of this stuff I surely would have studied harder in math. WOW.

    some figure it and some build it
    Ha cheers
    Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
    Senior Writer, BC Interruption
    Twitter: @Salzano14


    2017-2018 NCAA Women's Hockey Tournament Pairwise Predictor -- 2018-2019 Coming Soon!
    2017-2018 Men's & Women's GRaNT Computer Rankings -- 2018-2019 Coming Soon!
    2017-2018 BCI Women's Hockey KRACH Calculator -- 2018-2019 Coming Soon!

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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

    Our last bracketology before Selection Sunday (we'll have one after the last championship game) plus an in-depth look at what each team's options are:

    https://www.bcinterruption.com/bosto...son-colgate-bc
    Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
    Senior Writer, BC Interruption
    Twitter: @Salzano14


    2017-2018 NCAA Women's Hockey Tournament Pairwise Predictor -- 2018-2019 Coming Soon!
    2017-2018 Men's & Women's GRaNT Computer Rankings -- 2018-2019 Coming Soon!
    2017-2018 BCI Women's Hockey KRACH Calculator -- 2018-2019 Coming Soon!

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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

    Does anyone think there is any chance St. Anselm gets an at-large bid to the tournament? If they did, wouldn't it almost certainly cost the Gophers their spot?

    If it happens, Wisconsin might beat them by 15?

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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

    Quote Originally Posted by hockeydad23 View Post
    Does anyone think there is any chance St. Anselm gets an at-large bid to the tournament? If they did, wouldn't it almost certainly cost the Gophers their spot?

    If it happens, Wisconsin might beat them by 15?
    Bus/plane rules, I assume, would apply. BC would beat them by 20.

    (There's a guy - Phil - who does a call-and-answer with the crowd at Badger games: "One ... Two ... Three... We Want More", for whatever the appropriate number is for goals scored. If the count gets high enough, he switches to multiples: "Two ... Four ... Six" etc. Back when I was just out of school, I was at a Wisconsin men's game against the University of Windsor, just across the bridge from Detroit. "Five ... Ten... Fifteen... Twenty..." We ... really didn't want any more. 20-0 final score.)

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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

    Quote Originally Posted by hockeydad23 View Post
    Does anyone think there is any chance St. Anselm gets an at-large bid to the tournament? If they did, wouldn't it almost certainly cost the Gophers their spot?

    If it happens, Wisconsin might beat them by 15?
    I think there's a non-zero chance, but I think it's pretty close to zero. They're on the bubble as it is. If they were undefeated, the committee would have had a much tougher decision to make. But as it is, I don't expect them to make it.

    They wouldn't play Wisconsin though -- they'd stay east and Ohio State would go to Madison.

    I don't think they'd lose by 15... they're roughly similar to or maybe slightly better than Holy Cross. Holy Cross beat Harvard, so I mean at least they wouldn't get completely embarrassed lol. But they would lose handily.
    Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
    Senior Writer, BC Interruption
    Twitter: @Salzano14


    2017-2018 NCAA Women's Hockey Tournament Pairwise Predictor -- 2018-2019 Coming Soon!
    2017-2018 Men's & Women's GRaNT Computer Rankings -- 2018-2019 Coming Soon!
    2017-2018 BCI Women's Hockey KRACH Calculator -- 2018-2019 Coming Soon!

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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

    I admit to not really paying any attention to the rating systems but something struck me looking at them just now & I wanted to ask. It seems to me that there is usually a couple of big differences between them, particularly KRACH and the other two. Is this year odd in that they seem very similar or was I just not paying attention in the past & think there were significant differences?

  19. #99
    Fan of chipmunk-like mascots. ARM's Avatar
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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

    Quote Originally Posted by ne7minder View Post
    I admit to not really paying any attention to the rating systems but something struck me looking at them just now & I wanted to ask. It seems to me that there is usually a couple of big differences between them, particularly KRACH and the other two. Is this year odd in that they seem very similar or was I just not paying attention in the past & think there were significant differences?
    I think that there have been more notable differences in some past seasons. Particularly in a year where three WCHA teams would be in the top five, ratings like Rutter and KRACH would show those teams collectively as doing better than the PairWise would.

    Even this season, you can find rankings where Minnesota comes out higher than Cornell, such as the WCHODR rankings, that have been around for quite a while:
    http://it.stlawu.edu/~chodr/wchodr/current.html
    "... And lose, and start again at your beginnings
    And never breathe a word about your loss;" -- Rudyard Kipling

  20. #100
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    Re: Fun With Numbers 2018: Pairwise, KRACH, GRaNT, and other mathematical excitement

    Quote Originally Posted by ARM View Post
    I think that there have been more notable differences in some past seasons. Particularly in a year where three WCHA teams would be in the top five, ratings like Rutter and KRACH would show those teams collectively as doing better than the PairWise would.
    Yeah that's true, that's usually the big difference is how high those 2nd tier WCHA teams end up, although that hasn't really been the case this year. Part of that is probably due to the fact that the WCHA isn't quite as dominant as it has been in past years (or at least it didn't feel like it was).

    The HUGE difference between KRACH and the other systems this year has been in how they deal with the D-I/D-II independents. Saint Anselm is 5th in PWR but 27th in KRACH (you have to look at KRACH here; USCHO doesn't properly include the independents). Given that Holy Cross was able to win a couple D-I games this year (including one over Harvard) and that Saint Anselm is a bit better than Holy Cross is, that 27th feels like it might be pretty darn accurate.

    It's usually INCREDIBLY difficult to deal with low interconnectivity (like we have every year between conferences in general with so few interconference games). But with even fewer between the independents and everyone else, KRACH dealt with them, I think, exceptionally well. I think that given that knowledge, this year has really shown just how robust KRACH is as a rating system.
    Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
    Senior Writer, BC Interruption
    Twitter: @Salzano14


    2017-2018 NCAA Women's Hockey Tournament Pairwise Predictor -- 2018-2019 Coming Soon!
    2017-2018 Men's & Women's GRaNT Computer Rankings -- 2018-2019 Coming Soon!
    2017-2018 BCI Women's Hockey KRACH Calculator -- 2018-2019 Coming Soon!

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