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Thread: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

  1. #21

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    Quote Originally Posted by hockeyplayer1015 View Post
    I find it funny that the simulation finds SLU will magically receive 5 points during the remainder of the season.
    Cornell has 1 win against a team ranked in the Top 17 PWR (Harvard @Lynah).
    Last edited by bothman; 01-21-2018 at 01:50 PM.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by bothman View Post
    Cornell has 1 win against a team ranked in the Top 17 PWR (Harvard @Lynah).
    That's more a factor of their schedule though, as opposed to numerous missed opportunities.

    SLU has just 1 point thus far (Thanks, RPI!), and it's totally conceivable they go 0-fer until March.

  3. #23
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    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

    Quote Originally Posted by hockeyplayer1015 View Post
    That's more a factor of their schedule though, as opposed to numerous missed opportunities.

    SLU has just 1 point thus far (Thanks, RPI!), and it's totally conceivable they go 0-fer until March.
    We thought the same thing about Colgate in the 10-11 season, and then they came out of nowhere. With how y'all did over the Christmas break, I wouldn't be surprised if you get a couple wins and/or a good playoff run.
    It was an honor to present your colors, RPI. Let's Go 'TUTE!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rover View Post
    I'm not happy about it either, but Flag is correct (cue the Twilight Zone music!).
    Quote Originally Posted by French Rage View Post
    Ahh crap I agree exactly with what FlagDude said.
    Quote Originally Posted by jericho on rpitv's chat
    I never thought I would say this, but you are right.
    Quote Originally Posted by Handyman View Post
    And yet, even if Flaggy is complete tinfoil hat, every day it looks closer and closer to the truth.
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    So flaggy: you win.

  4. #24
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    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

    Quote Originally Posted by hockeyplayer1015 View Post
    I find it funny that the simulation finds SLU will magically receive 5 points during the remainder of the season.


    Basically, the rest of the teams they play are all bad (except Cornell and kind of Harvard), so they're expected to go about .250 in the match-up between awful and bad.
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  5. #25
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    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

    And you thought SLU couldn't "magically" get 5 points. Well I guess they only got 4 this weekend, but now the model thinks they'll probably pull another 5 before season's end. All that said, who really cares if SLU ends in last or second to last, and whether they do it with 5 points or 9 or whatever. What we do care about is the breaklines. The bye line is significantly tightened after Harvard went oh-fer, but Colgate is still almost a whole win behind. The home ice line remains the much tighter race, at a near tie between Princeton and Yale. While the Tiger-Bulldog race is incredibly close, they're the only teams really battling at this line. Quinnipiac isn't very likely to fall to 9th and Brown almost definitely won't climb up to 8th.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1021.47 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Cornell
    2. Clarkson
    3. Union
    4. Harvard
    5. Colgate
    6. Dartmouth
    7. Quinnipiac
    8. Princeton
    9. Yale
    10. Brown
    11. RPI
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  688.2 |  74.5  25.3   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.26 | 38.32
    Ck |  424.3 |  25.4  74.1   0.4   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.75 | 35.88
    Un |  106.1 |   0.0   0.4  56.7  25.3  12.7   4.2   0.6   0.1   0.0     x     x     x |  3.66 | 27.28
    Ha |  111.9 |     x   0.1  26.8  39.4  22.6   9.4   1.5   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x |  4.20 | 25.67
    Cg |   88.0 |     x   0.0  13.2  23.7  33.5  20.4   6.5   2.0   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.92 | 23.91
    Da |   82.2 |     x   0.0   2.6  10.5  24.0  38.9  16.0   5.9   1.8   0.3   0.0   0.0 |  5.82 | 22.27
    Qu |   74.7 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.6   3.4  11.6  33.0  25.5  16.4   7.3   1.7   0.4 |  7.69 | 18.88
    Pr |   74.5 |     x     x   0.0   0.2   1.8   8.6  21.1  27.1  22.9  14.5   3.0   0.7 |  8.19 | 17.87
    Ya |   66.4 |     x     x   0.0   0.3   2.0   6.3  17.7  28.7  32.1  12.0   0.8   0.0 |  8.21 | 17.76
    Br |   45.3 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.6   3.3   9.8  23.0  52.7   9.4   1.1 |  9.56 | 14.92
    RP |   28.2 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.8   8.3  63.0  26.4 | 11.13 | 11.31
    SL |   36.8 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.4   4.8  22.1  71.3 | 11.62 |  9.92
    
       |  KRACH |     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  688.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.6   1.7   4.2   8.5  15.0  19.9  23.2  15.7  11.0 | 38.32
    Ck |  424.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.7   1.7   3.8   6.8  11.9  15.1  19.5  16.3  14.7   5.9   3.4     x | 35.88
    Un |  106.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.5   1.9   3.4   7.6   9.8  15.1  14.6  16.2  11.8   9.7   5.0   2.9   1.0   0.4   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 27.28
    Ha |  111.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.5   2.3   3.8   9.8  11.6  19.2  15.6  18.0   9.2   7.3   1.7   0.9     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 25.67
    Cg |   88.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   2.5   4.3   8.6  10.9  15.7  14.8  16.0  10.8   8.6   3.8   2.1   0.5   0.2     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 23.91
    Da |   82.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.3   1.6   2.8   7.3   9.5  16.0  15.1  17.7  11.9  10.1   4.3   2.6   0.5   0.2     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.27
    Qu |   74.7 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.1   2.9   4.8   8.8  11.0  15.1  14.4  14.7  10.6   8.2   4.2   2.4   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.88
    Pr |   74.5 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.1   2.9   4.8   8.9  11.1  15.1  14.4  14.7  10.5   8.1   4.2   2.4   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.87
    Ya |   66.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   2.1   3.3  10.6  11.7  19.6  15.5  16.9   9.2   7.0   2.5   1.3   0.2   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.76
    Br |   45.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   4.6   6.3  16.4  15.3  20.6  13.8  12.2   5.8   3.5   1.1   0.4   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 14.92
    RP |   28.2 |     x     x     x   7.6  10.4  19.8  18.0  18.3  11.8   8.0   3.7   1.7   0.6   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 11.31
    SL |   36.8 |   2.2   3.9  10.0  12.1  17.2  15.3  14.9  10.1   7.3   3.8   2.0   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.92
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Cr    Ck    Un    Ha    Cg    Da    Qu    Pr    Ya    Br    RP    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
    Ck |     x           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
    Un |     x     x         0.0     x   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.2   0.9   6.2  10.0 |  82.4
    Ha |     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.4   0.8   0.2   1.8  12.5  18.0 |  66.3
    Cg |     x     x     x   0.0         0.0   1.4   2.6   1.3   6.4  22.4  28.3 |  36.9
    Da |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0         3.2   4.7   4.2  14.1  31.5  27.1 |  13.1
    Qu |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3        13.2  15.8  25.8  11.4   6.8 |   0.6
    Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   7.5        18.9  18.8   8.2   4.3 |   0.3
    Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.7   9.8  14.7        18.2   6.5   4.4 |   0.3
    Br |     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.3   3.2   4.7   4.1         0.8   0.5 |   0.0
    RP |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.1         0.0 |    NO
    SL |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.0       |    NO
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-2015 ECAC Pick the Standings Last Place


  6. #26
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    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

    Our borders which had previously been so interesting are now separated by over 2.5 points. Cornell is, despite their recent embarrassment, cruising to the Cleary with a sizeable lead over Clarkson. Unfortunately we're still dealing with uneven games played (stupid Beanpot), but that will be taken care of next weekend.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1016.70 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Cornell
    2. Clarkson
    3. Union
    4. Harvard
    5. Colgate
    6. Princeton
    7. Dartmouth
    8. Quinnipiac
    9. Yale
    10. Brown
    11. RPI
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  504.7 |  92.3   7.6   0.2   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.08 | 36.68
    Ck |  287.9 |   7.6  81.0   9.2   1.9   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x |  2.06 | 31.93
    Un |  110.6 |   0.1   5.8  51.0  32.3   8.0   2.1   0.6   0.1   0.0     x     x     x |  3.51 | 27.78
    Ha |  125.5 |   0.0   5.4  34.6  43.9  13.2   2.4   0.5   0.1   0.0     x     x     x |  3.74 | 26.84
    Cg |   88.0 |     x   0.3   4.4  16.0  40.4  20.5  11.5   5.3   1.6   0.1   0.0     x |  5.41 | 23.58
    Pr |  102.6 |     x   0.0   0.3   3.1  17.6  33.1  24.5  15.4   5.1   0.9   0.0     x |  6.49 | 21.92
    Da |   80.4 |     x   0.0   0.2   2.0  12.9  23.1  30.4  22.1   8.0   1.1   0.1     x |  6.86 | 21.37
    Qu |   84.1 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.7   5.9  14.6  23.6  36.0  16.0   2.9   0.4   0.0 |  7.50 | 20.48
    Ya |   77.4 |     x     x   0.0   0.2   1.7   4.0   8.1  18.1  53.5  13.2   1.2   0.0 |  8.62 | 17.93
    Br |   43.8 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.8   2.7  13.9  64.9  17.0   0.5 |  9.95 | 14.69
    RP |   32.7 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.9  16.6  78.4   2.8 | 10.81 | 12.65
    SL |   33.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   2.9  96.7 | 11.96 |  8.17
    
       |  KRACH |     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  504.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.9   2.8   6.2  13.2  18.1  25.8  17.2  15.5 | 36.68
    Ck |  287.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.2   3.8   6.1  12.8  14.5  21.3  15.2  15.6   5.3   3.6     x     x     x | 31.93
    Un |  110.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.7   1.3   5.4   7.2  15.0  14.4  19.7  13.2  12.7   5.5   3.7   0.8   0.3     x     x     x     x     x | 27.78
    Ha |  125.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.3   0.8   3.9   5.8  15.0  14.8  23.5  14.1  14.8   4.2   2.9     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 26.84
    Cg |   88.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.5   2.5   4.1  10.4  12.0  19.6  15.6  17.5   8.6   6.7   1.6   0.8     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 23.58
    Pr |  102.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.3   1.7   3.1   8.4  10.6  18.5  16.0  19.1  10.2   8.5   2.2   1.2     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.92
    Da |   80.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.3   0.6   3.0   4.8  11.6  12.8  20.0  15.1  16.3   7.8   5.7   1.3   0.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.37
    Qu |   84.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.6   2.8   4.4  11.0  12.3  19.8  15.4  16.8   8.2   6.3   1.5   0.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.48
    Ya |   77.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.8   2.9   9.7  10.9  19.0  15.3  17.4  10.0   7.9   2.9   1.6   0.3   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.93
    Br |   43.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   5.8   7.5  17.9  16.1  20.2  13.1  10.7   4.8   2.8   0.8   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 14.69
    RP |   32.7 |     x     x     x     x     x  12.9  13.2  25.4  17.2  16.9   7.7   4.7   1.4   0.5   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.65
    SL |   33.1 |   8.7  10.6  21.4  17.5  18.5  10.8   7.5   3.1   1.4   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  8.17
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Cr    Ck    Un    Ha    Cg    Pr    Da    Qu    Ya    Br    RP    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
    Ck |     x           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2 |  99.7
    Un |     x     x           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.8   2.0   7.8 |  89.2
    Ha |     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   2.5  12.8 |  83.9
    Cg |     x     x   0.0   0.0         0.5   0.5   1.4   4.5  12.0  19.1  39.7 |  20.6
    Pr |     x     x     x   0.0   0.1         1.5   2.8  13.5  23.9  30.7  18.1 |   3.4
    Da |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.7         4.5  18.7  27.0  24.1  13.3 |   2.2
    Qu |     x     x     x   0.0   0.4   1.6   2.0        29.8  23.8  16.2   6.3 |   0.7
    Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.8   2.6   4.5   9.3         8.0   4.8   1.8 |   0.2
    Br |     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.5   0.6   1.1   1.1         0.3   0.0 |   0.0
    RP |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.0         0.0 |    NO
    SL |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x     x     x     x       |    NO
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-2015 ECAC Pick the Standings Last Place


  7. #27
    Conductor emeritus
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    New Haven, CT
    Posts
    3,250

    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

    Finally, everyone has played the same number of games and we're in the final stretch of the ECAC season. A small amount of intrigue has crept back into the home-road dividing line, with Yale's win over Quinnipiac catapulting them into eighth place, and a mere 1.2 points separating 9th from 6th. Cornell, Clarkson, and Union are all set to coast to byes, while SLU, RPI, and Brown are just playing out the string to find out where they'll be headed in two weeks.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 282,429,536,481 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Cornell
    2. Clarkson
    3. Union
    4. Harvard
    5. Colgate
    6. Princeton
    7. Dartmouth
    8. Yale
    9. Quinnipiac
    10. Brown
    11. RPI
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  487.0 |  97.5   2.3   0.2     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.03 | 36.58
    Ck |  287.2 |   1.8  80.7  15.9   1.6   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.17 | 31.76
    Un |  128.9 |   0.7  16.6  80.3   2.3   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.84 | 29.99
    Ha |  116.4 |     x   0.3   3.5  78.0  14.1   3.0   0.9   0.2   0.0     x     x     x |  4.20 | 25.59
    Cg |   81.6 |     x     x   0.1  11.7  36.7  21.7  14.0  10.0   5.8   0.0     x     x |  5.91 | 22.43
    Pr |   97.8 |     x     x     x   1.4  16.9  28.6  24.7  17.4  11.0   0.0   0.0     x |  6.73 | 21.29
    Da |   78.3 |     x     x     x   1.2  15.5  21.1  24.3  20.9  16.9   0.2     x     x |  7.00 | 21.01
    Ya |   94.9 |     x     x     x   3.6  12.2  14.7  18.7  23.9  26.8   0.1   0.0     x |  7.28 | 20.48
    Qu |   83.5 |     x     x     x   0.3   4.6  10.8  17.4  27.6  39.0   0.3   0.0     x |  7.86 | 20.07
    Br |   39.7 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4  74.7  22.2   2.6 | 10.27 | 13.26
    RP |   31.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2  21.7  68.4   9.7 | 10.88 | 12.01
    SL |   37.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   3.0   9.4  87.6 | 11.85 |  9.53
    
       |  KRACH |     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  487.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.5   5.8  11.0  25.7  23.1  32.3 | 36.58
    Ck |  287.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.5   3.0   5.0  14.6  15.3  28.4  14.9  18.1     x     x     x     x | 31.76
    Un |  128.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   2.9   4.0  15.7  13.8  26.8  14.1  16.3   3.8   2.5     x     x     x     x | 29.99
    Ha |  116.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.1   2.0   9.8  11.0  25.8  16.5  22.5   6.2   5.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 25.59
    Cg |   81.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.7   2.6  11.8  11.8  25.7  15.4  20.2   5.7   4.9     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.43
    Pr |   97.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.6   2.7  12.5  12.8  27.8  15.5  19.0   4.7   3.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.29
    Da |   78.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   2.6   3.7  15.6  14.0  27.4  14.3  16.2   3.8   2.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.01
    Ya |   94.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   5.4   6.2  21.0  15.7  25.6  11.6  11.1   2.3   1.2     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.48
    Qu |   83.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   2.2   3.4  14.8  13.9  28.2  14.7  16.5   3.8   2.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.07
    Br |   39.7 |     x     x     x     x  17.3  14.6  29.0  15.8  15.1   5.0   2.7   0.4   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.26
    RP |   31.4 |     x     x     x  21.0  16.8  29.0  14.8  12.4   3.8   1.8   0.3   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.01
    SL |   37.3 |  14.4  12.6  27.5  15.9  17.5   6.4   4.4   0.8   0.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.53
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Cr    Ck    Un    Ha    Cg    Pr    Da    Ya    Qu    Br    RP    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
    Ck |     x           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
    Un |     x     x           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0 | 100.0
    Ha |     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.1   0.0   0.1   1.6   4.3  12.0 |  81.8
    Cg |     x     x     x   0.0         1.7   1.9   1.5   4.9  17.1  21.6  33.7 |  11.8
    Pr |     x     x     x   0.0   0.4         4.8   5.7   6.6  23.8  27.1  19.2 |   1.4
    Da |     x     x     x   0.0   1.3   1.4         5.4  12.8  24.4  19.8  16.8 |   1.2
    Ya |     x     x     x   0.0   1.5   3.5   3.9        15.0  17.5  15.4  12.8 |   3.6
    Qu |     x     x     x   0.0   2.6   4.4   6.3  14.3        15.6  11.7   5.6 |   0.3
    Br |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.0   0.0 |    NO
    RP |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x           x |    NO
    SL |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |    NO
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-2015 ECAC Pick the Standings Last Place


  8. #28
    Conductor emeritus
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    New Haven, CT
    Posts
    3,250

    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

    MIDWEEK UPDATE.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 387,420,489 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Cornell
    2. Union
    3. Clarkson
    4. Harvard
    5. Dartmouth
    6. Princeton
    7. Colgate
    8. Yale
    9. Quinnipiac
    10. Brown
    11. RPI
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  493.9 |  98.8   1.2   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.01 | 36.82
    Un |  136.0 |   1.2  51.1  47.1   0.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.47 | 30.86
    Ck |  255.5 |   0.0  47.3  44.2   8.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.61 | 30.12
    Ha |  122.9 |     x   0.4   8.7  83.4   5.9   1.4   0.2   0.0     x     x     x     x |  4.00 | 26.22
    Da |   89.7 |     x     x     x   2.0  39.0  25.1  18.8  12.6   2.4     x     x     x |  6.08 | 22.66
    Pr |  103.9 |     x     x     x   0.9  25.7  25.7  24.0  18.1   5.7     x     x     x |  6.50 | 21.95
    Cg |   77.9 |     x     x     x   0.9  13.4  24.4  24.6  24.6  12.2     x     x     x |  6.95 | 21.44
    Ya |  102.6 |     x     x     x   3.7  15.7  21.1  25.2  25.0   9.3     x     x     x |  6.80 | 21.41
    Qu |   81.1 |     x     x     x     x   0.3   2.4   7.2  19.7  70.3   0.1   0.0     x |  8.58 | 19.29
    Br |   39.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1  81.9  16.9   1.1 | 10.19 | 12.93
    RP |   30.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0  16.6  77.1   6.2 | 10.89 | 11.45
    SL |   35.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.4   6.0  92.6 | 11.91 |  8.86
    
       |  KRACH |     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  493.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.6   4.2   8.0  25.6  21.8  39.7 | 36.82
    Un |  136.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   8.0   7.9  29.2  16.4  27.2   6.3   5.0     x     x     x     x | 30.86
    Ck |  255.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.5   2.4  12.6  12.6  31.8  15.5  23.6     x     x     x     x     x     x | 30.12
    Ha |  122.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   4.8   5.8  25.4  16.2  30.6   8.5   8.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 26.22
    Da |   89.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   3.0   4.0  18.7  14.7  32.8  11.7  15.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.66
    Pr |  103.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   6.7   7.3  29.7  16.4  27.2   6.7   6.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.95
    Cg |   77.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   3.8   4.9  21.7  15.7  32.6   9.9  11.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.44
    Ya |  102.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  13.7  10.9  32.7  15.3  20.5   4.2   2.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.41
    Qu |   81.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   4.0   5.2  23.6  16.6  34.0   8.6   7.9     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.29
    Br |   39.1 |     x     x     x     x  22.8  15.1  32.0  12.8  13.2   2.6   1.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.93
    RP |   30.1 |     x     x     x  32.2  19.1  30.0  10.3   7.0   1.1   0.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 11.45
    SL |   35.4 |  24.1  15.6  31.7  12.5  12.3   2.4   1.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  8.86
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Cr    Un    Ck    Ha    Da    Pr    Cg    Ya    Qu    Br    RP    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
    Un |     x           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
    Ck |     x     x           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
    Ha |     x     x     x           x     x     x     x   0.0   0.2   1.6   5.6 |  92.5
    Da |     x     x     x     x         0.1   0.7   0.2  11.7  20.7  23.9  38.3 |   2.0
    Pr |     x     x     x     x   0.6         0.6   1.5  15.4  24.1  25.1  26.2 |   0.9
    Cg |     x     x     x     x   0.5   1.4         1.3  21.5  23.9  24.7  13.7 |   0.9
    Ya |     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.8   2.0        21.9  24.3  21.9  15.7 |   3.7
    Qu |     x     x     x     x   1.2   3.4   8.8   6.3         6.7   2.8   0.5 |    NO
    RP |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x           x     x |    NO
    Br |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x           x |    NO
    SL |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |    NO
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-2015 ECAC Pick the Standings Last Place


  9. #29
    Conductor emeritus
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    New Haven, CT
    Posts
    3,250

    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

    One weekend, and Clarkson still sucks. Not in the standings or on the ice or anything, but you know, yeah. The bye teams are set, as are three of the four road teams. Quinnipiac is more likely that not to be on the road next week, but they have a pretty reasonable shot to jumping into the middle four.

    Simulated Final Standings (EXHAUSTIVE simulation of 531,441 possibilites):
    1. Cornell
    2. Union
    3. Clarkson
    4. Harvard
      —————
    5. Dartmouth
    6. Colgate
    7. Princeton
    8. Yale
      —————
    9. Quinnipiac
    10. Brown
    11. RPI
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.
    Note: I've continued to be lazy and never implemented tie-breaking for more than three teams or beyond the second tiebreaker. I just flip a coin. That introduces some fuzziness in the middle of the standings, since we could theoretically have a five-way tie there. So don't take these odds as gospel and hope that I decide to fix it some time before next February.


    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  512.7 |  99.5   0.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.00 | 37.26
    Un |  142.9 |   0.5  91.4   8.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.08 | 31.76
    Ck |  229.1 |     x   8.1  58.7  33.2     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  3.25 | 28.76
    Ha |  136.9 |     x     x  33.2  66.8     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  3.67 | 27.65
    Da |   92.8 |     x     x     x     x  63.9  19.9   9.3   6.0   0.9     x     x     x |  5.60 | 23.36
    Cg |   79.7 |     x     x     x     x  18.8  44.1  21.6  10.8   4.7     x     x     x |  6.38 | 22.17
    Pr |   96.5 |     x     x     x     x   7.5  15.2  32.1  29.6  15.5     x     x     x |  7.30 | 21.07
    Ya |   98.1 |     x     x     x     x   9.5  16.5  24.6  28.2  21.1     x     x     x |  7.34 | 20.88
    Qu |   83.6 |     x     x     x     x   0.3   4.3  12.3  25.3  57.8     x     x     x |  8.36 | 19.97
    Br |   36.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  86.4  13.3   0.3 | 10.14 | 12.11
    RP |   28.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  13.0  84.1   2.9 | 10.90 | 10.81
    SL |   33.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.6   2.6  96.8 | 11.96 |  8.20
    
       |  KRACH |     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  512.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.8   3.1  20.3  20.1  55.5 | 37.26
    Un |  142.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  21.0  13.3  45.3  10.0  10.5     x     x     x     x | 31.76
    Ck |  229.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   5.9   6.6  32.2  16.7  38.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 28.76
    Ha |  136.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   6.5   7.3  35.7  16.0  34.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 27.65
    Da |   92.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  10.8   9.2  39.7  14.0  26.2     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 23.36
    Cg |   79.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  12.5  10.5  44.4  12.8  19.8     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.17
    Pr |   96.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  13.5  11.2  46.7  12.1  16.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.07
    Ya |   98.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  21.2  12.4  39.4  10.8  16.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.88
    Qu |   83.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  15.6  11.8  46.8  11.4  14.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.97
    Br |   36.1 |     x     x     x     x  42.7  17.6  29.7   5.7   4.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.11
    RP |   28.1 |     x     x     x  52.5  19.6  23.2   3.6   1.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 10.81
    SL |   33.2 |  39.9  17.0  31.4   6.3   5.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  8.20
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Da    Cg    Pr    Ya    Qu    Br    RP    SL
    ----------------------------------------------------
    Da |         0.2   0.2   0.1   5.5  10.8  19.8  62.5
    Cg |   0.0         2.4   1.5   6.8  21.7  43.2  19.6
    Pr |   0.4   0.4         6.5  22.4  31.6  15.5   7.7
    Ya |   0.4   0.9   3.9        23.1  24.6  16.2   9.9
    Qu |   0.1   3.3   9.0  13.0        11.3   5.3   0.3
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    Last edited by lugnut92; 02-18-2018 at 05:25 PM.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-2015 ECAC Pick the Standings Last Place


  10. #30
    Conductor emeritus
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    New Haven, CT
    Posts
    3,250

    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

    Last one of these! Only one playoff match-up is set, with Dartmouth and SLU locked into 5th and 12th, respectively. We don't know which team of the four jockeying in the middle will fall to ninth, though it'll probably be Yale. Colgate controls their own destiny, as a win tonight at RPI would lock in a rematch in Hamilton next weekend.

    Simulated Final Standings (EXHAUSTIVE simulation of 729 possibilites):
    1. Cornell
    2. Union
    3. Clarkson
    4. Harvard
    5. Dartmouth
    6. Colgate
    7. Princeton
    8. Quinnipiac
    9. Yale
    10. Brown
    11. RPI
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  522.7 | 100.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.00 | 37.50
    Un |  138.7 |     x 100.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.00 | 31.50
    Ck |  220.2 |     x     x  87.9  12.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  3.12 | 28.38
    Ha |  120.4 |     x     x  12.1  87.9     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  3.88 | 26.12
    Da |   99.7 |     x     x     x     x 100.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  5.00 | 24.36
    Cg |   80.9 |     x     x     x     x     x  80.4  10.1   7.4   2.0     x     x     x |  6.30 | 22.43
    Pr |   99.2 |     x     x     x     x     x  13.0  54.4  25.8   6.8     x     x     x |  7.26 | 21.45
    Qu |   86.7 |     x     x     x     x     x   4.5  22.4  44.7  28.4     x     x     x |  7.97 | 20.62
    Ya |   90.9 |     x     x     x     x     x   2.1  13.1  22.1  62.8     x     x     x |  8.46 | 19.88
    Br |   41.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x 100.0     x     x | 10.00 | 13.64
    RP |   27.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x 100.0     x | 11.00 | 10.57
    SL |   31.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x 100.0 | 12.00 |  7.55
    
       |  KRACH |     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  522.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  18.1  13.5  68.4 | 37.50
    Un |  138.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  68.4  13.5  18.1     x     x     x     x     x | 31.50
    Ck |  220.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  24.4  13.4  62.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 28.38
    Ha |  120.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  37.2  13.5  49.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 26.12
    Da |   99.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  25.2  13.4  61.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.36
    Cg |   80.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  21.9  13.5  64.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.43
    Pr |   99.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  20.9  13.5  65.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.45
    Qu |   86.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  62.1  13.4  24.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.62
    Ya |   90.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  49.3  13.5  37.2     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.88
    Br |   41.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x  61.3  13.4  25.2     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.64
    RP |   27.4 |     x     x     x  64.6  13.5  21.9     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 10.57
    SL |   31.6 |  65.7  13.5  20.9     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  7.55
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Cg    Pr    Qu    Ya    Br    RP    SL
    ----------------------------------------------
    Da |     x     x     x     x     x     x 100.0
    Cg |         0.9   3.3   3.2  10.1  80.4     x
    Pr |     x         7.4  18.4  54.4  13.0     x
    Qu |   0.7   2.8        41.1  22.4   4.5     x
    Ya |   1.3   3.1  17.7        13.1   2.1     x
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-2015 ECAC Pick the Standings Last Place


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