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Thread: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

  1. #1
    Conductor emeritus
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    New Haven, CT
    Posts
    3,337

    ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

    Another year, another season of simulated KRACH standings. The first week of the season had five league games, so this is a more legitimate first post than most years have been. Anyway, it's crazy early, so we have to throw in the fake tie to keep KRACH real and finite. Usually I hold off until like January to start posting the playoff matchup possibilities, but I generate them immediately anyway, so whatever. Look at those way too early numbers too.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^60.59 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Princeton
    2. Cornell
    3. Quinnipiac
    4. Harvard
    5. Clarkson
    6. Colgate
    7. Yale
    8. Brown
    9. Union
    10. RPI
    11. SLU
    12. Dartmouth

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. This early in the season, it is necessary to have the aforementioned hypothetical tie to keep all of the ratings finite and non-zero.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Pr |  322.7 |  41.4  25.0  15.3   9.0   4.9   2.5   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0     x |  2.27 | 31.42
    Cr |  271.3 |  27.2  25.4  18.8  12.5   7.8   4.4   2.3   1.1   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  2.79 | 30.09
    Qu |  225.4 |  16.2  20.3  20.4  16.3  11.6   7.3   4.3   2.3   1.0   0.2   0.0   0.0 |  3.46 | 28.58
    Ha |  168.3 |   6.9  11.8  16.0  18.0  16.4  12.6   8.7   5.6   3.0   0.8   0.1   0.0 |  4.50 | 26.41
    Ck |  164.3 |   5.6  10.1  14.2  17.1  16.9  13.8  10.1   6.8   3.9   1.2   0.2   0.0 |  4.79 | 25.84
    Cg |  119.2 |   1.4   3.5   6.5  10.2  14.0  16.7  16.3  14.6  11.1   4.5   0.9   0.1 |  6.27 | 22.96
    Ya |  100.0 |   0.5   1.5   3.4   6.2  10.0  14.5  18.1  19.5  16.8   7.7   1.7   0.3 |  7.07 | 21.37
    Br |  100.0 |   0.5   1.5   3.3   6.1  10.0  14.5  18.2  19.5  16.9   7.6   1.7   0.3 |  7.08 | 21.37
    Un |   73.1 |   0.2   0.8   2.1   4.2   7.6  11.9  16.6  20.8  23.9   9.2   2.2   0.4 |  7.54 | 20.40
    RP |   59.5 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.7   3.6   7.4  16.3  42.3  19.8   7.8 |  9.81 | 14.98
    SL |   26.6 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.2   3.9  15.1  39.7  39.5 | 11.10 | 10.73
    Da |   24.6 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.7   2.5  11.2  33.8  51.5 | 11.32 |  9.87
    
       |  KRACH |     0     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Pr |  322.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.6   2.5   3.7   5.1   6.7   8.2   9.6  10.4  10.5  10.0   8.8   7.2   5.4   3.7   2.3   1.3   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0 | 31.42
    Cr |  271.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.2   2.0   3.0   4.2   5.7   7.2   8.6   9.7  10.2  10.1   9.4   8.1   6.5   4.9   3.3   2.1   1.2   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 30.09
    Qu |  225.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.6   2.5   3.7   5.1   6.5   7.9   9.1   9.8  10.0   9.6   8.6   7.2   5.6   4.1   2.8   1.7   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 28.58
    Ha |  168.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.7   1.1   1.8   2.7   4.0   5.4   6.8   8.2   9.3   9.9   9.8   9.3   8.2   6.9   5.3   3.9   2.6   1.6   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 26.41
    Ck |  164.3 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.5   1.0   1.6   2.4   3.5   4.8   6.2   7.6   8.7   9.5   9.8   9.5   8.6   7.4   6.0   4.5   3.2   2.1   1.3   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 25.84
    Cg |  119.2 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.5   0.9   1.5   2.3   3.4   4.7   6.1   7.5   8.6   9.4   9.7   9.4   8.6   7.4   6.0   4.6   3.3   2.3   1.4   0.8   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 22.96
    Ya |  100.0 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.5   1.0   1.7   2.7   4.1   5.5   7.1   8.5   9.6  10.2  10.1   9.3   8.1   6.6   5.1   3.6   2.4   1.5   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 21.37
    Br |  100.0 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.5   1.0   1.7   2.7   4.0   5.5   7.1   8.6   9.7  10.2  10.1   9.3   8.1   6.6   5.1   3.6   2.4   1.5   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.37
    Un |   73.1 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.6   2.6   4.0   5.6   7.2   8.8   9.8  10.3  10.2   9.4   8.1   6.5   5.0   3.6   2.4   1.5   0.9   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.40
    RP |   59.5 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.9   3.1   4.6   6.3   8.1   9.4  10.4  10.5  10.1   8.9   7.4   5.8   4.2   2.9   1.9   1.2   0.7   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 14.98
    SL |   26.6 |   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.7   3.1   5.0   7.0   9.0  10.5  11.3  11.1  10.2   8.7   6.8   5.1   3.6   2.4   1.5   0.8   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 10.73
    Da |   24.6 |   0.0   0.2   0.6   1.3   2.7   4.5   6.7   8.9  10.7  11.6  11.6  10.6   9.1   7.2   5.3   3.6   2.4   1.4   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.87
    
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Pr    Cr    Qu    Ha    Ck    Cg    Ya    Br    Un    RP    SL    Da |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Pr |         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.2   0.3   1.5   3.1   3.5 |  90.7
    Cr |   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.4   0.7   2.7   5.2   5.8 |  83.9
    Qu |   0.0   0.0         0.1   0.1   0.5   0.8   0.8   1.3   4.7   8.2   9.0 |  73.2
    Ha |   0.0   0.0   0.1         0.3   1.1   1.8   1.8   2.7   8.7  13.1  13.8 |  52.7
    Ck |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3         1.3   2.2   2.2   3.3   9.7  13.9  14.6 |  47.1
    Cg |   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   0.8         4.4   4.5   6.8  14.1  15.2  15.1 |  21.7
    Ya |   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.7   1.0   3.5         6.2   8.9  15.2  13.3  12.7 |  11.5
    Br |   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.0   3.5   6.3         9.0  15.1  13.4  12.7 |  11.4
    Un |   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.9   1.3   4.3   7.0   7.1        14.1  11.2  10.4 |   7.4
    RP |   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.4   0.6   1.7   2.7   2.7   2.2         1.6   1.3 |   0.4
    SL |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.3   0.4   0.3         0.1 |   0.0
    Da |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.2   0.2   0.1   0.0       |   0.0
    
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-2015 ECAC Pick the Standings Last Place


  2. #2
    Conductor emeritus
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    New Haven, CT
    Posts
    3,337

    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

    We're still crazy early in the season, but at least everyone has played a couple league games now. Cornell is apparently going to win everything forever and SLU is gonna do real bad.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 10^54.87 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Cornell
    2. Clarkson
    3. Colgate
    4. Princeton
    5. Quinnipiac
    6. Harvard
    7. Union
    8. Dartmouth
    9. Yale
    10. RPI
    11. Brown
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. This early in the season, it is necessary to have a hypothetical tie to keep all of the ratings finite and non-zero.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  876.8 |  92.2   7.0   0.7   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x |  1.09 | 38.07
    Ck |  243.3 |   6.3  53.0  21.3  10.7   5.2   2.3   0.9   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x |  2.68 | 30.71
    Cg |  146.1 |   0.8  15.1  25.4  22.5  15.8  10.1   5.8   3.0   1.2   0.3   0.0   0.0 |  4.15 | 26.80
    Pr |  171.9 |   0.5  14.4  24.6  22.2  16.5  10.7   6.3   3.2   1.3   0.3   0.1   0.0 |  4.23 | 26.60
    Qu |  146.2 |   0.1   5.9  13.4  18.1  20.6  17.1  12.2   7.6   3.7   1.1   0.3   0.0 |  5.23 | 24.37
    Ha |  104.4 |   0.1   3.1   8.6  13.3  17.8  20.1  16.8  11.6   6.2   1.8   0.5   0.1 |  5.86 | 23.00
    Un |   67.2 |   0.0   0.6   2.9   6.1  10.7  16.2  20.7  21.0  15.1   5.0   1.3   0.2 |  7.02 | 20.67
    Da |   71.4 |   0.0   0.7   2.5   5.3   9.3  14.7  20.6  22.4  15.7   6.2   2.1   0.5 |  7.21 | 20.28
    Ya |   60.4 |   0.0   0.1   0.6   1.7   3.8   7.6  13.2  21.0  29.3  14.8   6.1   1.8 |  8.34 | 17.86
    RP |   42.1 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.7   1.8   5.0  12.6  28.4  30.3  21.0 | 10.40 | 12.84
    Br |   32.7 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.2   3.5  10.1  27.8  31.9  24.9 | 10.59 | 12.39
    SL |   23.4 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.5   4.7  14.4  27.5  51.4 | 11.21 | 10.43
    
       |  KRACH |     0     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  876.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.7   1.5   2.7   4.5   7.0   9.8  12.6  14.4  14.7  12.9   9.6   5.8   2.6   0.7 | 38.07
    Ck |  243.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.7   1.2   2.0   3.1   4.6   6.2   8.0   9.6  10.7  11.1  10.6   9.4   7.7   5.7   3.9   2.4   1.3   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 30.71
    Cg |  146.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.3   2.1   3.2   4.6   6.2   7.8   9.2  10.3  10.7  10.2   9.2   7.6   5.9   4.2   2.7   1.7   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 26.80
    Pr |  171.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.4   2.3   3.4   4.9   6.4   8.1   9.5  10.4  10.7  10.1   9.0   7.4   5.6   3.9   2.5   1.4   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 26.60
    Qu |  146.2 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.5   1.0   1.6   2.6   3.8   5.3   6.9   8.5   9.6  10.4  10.3   9.7   8.5   6.9   5.2   3.6   2.3   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 24.37
    Ha |  104.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   1.9   3.0   4.4   6.1   7.8   9.1  10.2  10.6  10.2   9.2   7.8   6.0   4.5   3.0   1.9   1.1   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 23.00
    Un |   67.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.1   2.1   3.3   5.0   6.8   8.6   9.9  10.8  10.8  10.1   8.8   7.1   5.3   3.7   2.5   1.5   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.67
    Da |   71.4 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.6   2.6   4.0   5.7   7.4   9.0  10.1  10.7  10.4   9.5   8.1   6.5   4.8   3.3   2.1   1.3   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.28
    Ya |   60.4 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   3.0   4.6   6.5   8.3   9.9  10.9  11.2  10.4   9.1   7.4   5.6   3.9   2.6   1.5   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.86
    RP |   42.1 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.6   2.9   4.6   6.6   8.6  10.4  11.2  11.3  10.5   9.1   7.2   5.4   3.8   2.5   1.5   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.84
    Br |   32.7 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.9   3.3   5.4   7.6   9.8  11.3  11.9  11.5  10.3   8.4   6.3   4.4   2.9   1.7   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.39
    SL |   23.4 |     x   0.1   0.2   0.8   1.7   3.4   5.4   7.8   9.9  11.4  11.9  11.4  10.2   8.3   6.3   4.5   3.0   1.8   1.0   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 10.43
    
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Cr    Ck    Cg    Pr    Qu    Ha    Un    Da    Ya    RP    Br    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |           x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
    Ck |     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.2   0.5   2.2   2.3   3.4 |  91.2
    Cg |     x   0.0         0.1   0.2   0.3   0.9   1.1   2.8   8.5   9.1  11.9 |  63.8
    Pr |     x   0.0   0.1         0.2   0.3   1.0   1.2   3.0   9.0   9.6  12.5 |  61.7
    Qu |     x   0.0   0.1   0.1         0.7   2.0   2.4   6.0  14.0  14.8  17.3 |  37.6
    Ha |     x   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5         2.9   3.8   8.1  16.4  16.7  17.7 |  25.0
    Un |     x   0.0   0.3   0.3   1.0   1.7         5.7  13.5  15.9  16.2  14.1 |   9.7
    Da |     x   0.0   0.3   0.3   1.0   1.6   5.1        14.3  15.9  15.5  13.1 |   8.5
    Ya |     x   0.0   0.4   0.5   1.4   2.8   7.4   7.0         9.6   9.5   6.9 |   2.5
    RP |     x   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.4   0.7   0.9   1.9   2.0         0.9   0.7 |   0.1
    Br |     x   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.3   1.1   1.0   1.4   0.7         0.3 |   0.0
    SL |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.5   0.5   0.3   0.2       |   0.0
    
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-2015 ECAC Pick the Standings Last Place


  3. #3
    Conductor emeritus
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    New Haven, CT
    Posts
    3,337

    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

    Cornell should go ahead and lose a game. There are a few sizeable gaps opening up, but the 6-10 range is pretty tight, with less than 2 points separating Harvard from RPI.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1049.14 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Cornell
    2. Clarkson
    3. Colgate
    4. Union
    5. Princeton
    6. Harvard
    7. Quinnipiac
    8. Yale
    9. Dartmouth
    10. RPI
    11. Brown
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. This early in the season, it is necessary to have a tie against a hypothetical average team to keep all of the ratings finite and non-zero.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  992.9 |  88.2  10.9   0.8   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.13 | 38.89
    Ck |  296.1 |  10.6  65.2  17.3   5.1   1.5   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  2.22 | 33.36
    Cg |  155.2 |   0.9  14.7  39.3  26.8  13.6   3.3   1.0   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  3.54 | 28.70
    Un |  109.3 |   0.3   6.4  28.5  34.9  20.6   6.2   2.2   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.02 | 27.15
    Pr |  134.9 |   0.0   2.7  12.2  24.4  35.1  14.0   6.3   3.0   1.4   0.6   0.2   0.0 |  4.88 | 24.96
    Ha |   64.2 |   0.0   0.1   0.7   3.0   8.8  20.0  20.0  17.5  14.2  10.3   4.7   0.7 |  7.50 | 18.96
    Qu |   83.4 |   0.0   0.0   0.5   2.3   7.9  18.7  18.7  17.1  14.9  11.9   6.9   1.2 |  7.72 | 18.52
    Ya |   55.2 |     x   0.0   0.3   1.5   5.1  13.6  17.4  18.8  18.6  16.1   7.6   0.8 |  8.09 | 17.74
    Da |   50.4 |     x   0.0   0.2   1.3   4.5  12.2  16.4  18.4  18.8  16.9   9.4   1.8 |  8.27 | 17.41
    RP |   59.4 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.5   2.7  10.4  14.6  17.4  19.0  19.2  13.6   2.5 |  8.62 | 16.72
    Br |   33.5 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.3   3.2   6.2  11.5  21.5  44.8  11.1 | 10.26 | 13.20
    SL |   17.9 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.2   3.5  12.8  81.8 | 11.74 |  8.38
    
       |  KRACH |     0     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  992.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.5   4.5   7.3  10.6  13.8  15.8  15.6  13.0   8.8   4.3   1.4 | 38.89
    Ck |  296.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   1.9   3.2   4.8   6.8   8.9  10.8  12.0  12.1  11.2   9.5   7.0   4.8   2.7   1.4   0.6   0.2   0.0   0.0 | 33.36
    Cg |  155.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.5   1.1   1.8   3.0   4.5   6.4   8.2  10.0  11.0  11.5  10.8   9.5   7.5   5.6   3.7   2.2   1.2   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 28.70
    Un |  109.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.3   2.3   3.8   5.5   7.6   9.5  11.0  11.6  11.5  10.2   8.5   6.3   4.4   2.7   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 27.15
    Pr |  134.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.7   2.7   4.2   5.9   7.7   9.4  10.6  11.2  10.8   9.8   8.1   6.2   4.2   2.7   1.5   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 24.96
    Ha |   64.2 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   2.8   4.4   6.1   8.1   9.7  10.8  11.1  10.7   9.4   7.7   5.8   4.1   2.7   1.6   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.96
    Qu |   83.4 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.3   2.3   3.5   5.1   6.9   8.6   9.9  10.7  10.7  10.1   8.7   7.1   5.2   3.7   2.3   1.3   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.52
    Ya |   55.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.5   2.9   4.6   6.8   8.8  10.7  11.5  11.7  10.7   9.2   7.2   5.3   3.5   2.2   1.2   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.74
    Da |   50.4 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.2   2.1   3.6   5.3   7.4   9.2  10.6  11.2  11.1  10.1   8.5   6.6   4.8   3.2   2.0   1.1   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.41
    RP |   59.4 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   3.0   4.6   6.6   8.5  10.4  11.3  11.6  10.7   9.3   7.4   5.4   3.5   2.2   1.2   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.72
    Br |   33.5 |     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.2   0.8   1.7   3.5   5.6   8.2  10.4  12.1  12.4  11.9  10.1   8.1   5.9   4.0   2.4   1.4   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.20
    SL |   17.9 |     x   0.3   1.0   2.6   5.0   8.0  10.7  12.8  13.2  12.5  10.6   8.3   5.9   3.9   2.4   1.3   0.7   0.4   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  8.38
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Cr    Ck    Cg    Un    Pr    Ha    Qu    Ya    Da    RP    Br    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
    Ck |     x           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.2 |  98.3
    Cg |     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.4   0.6   0.5   0.9   1.0   3.3  11.5 |  81.7
    Un |     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.6   1.1   1.0   1.4   2.2   5.6  17.7 |  70.0
    Pr |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0         1.9   2.4   2.9   3.6   4.9  12.1  30.6 |  39.4
    Ha |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4         7.3   9.0  10.6  11.6  16.5  10.8 |   3.8
    Qu |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   6.4         9.4  10.0  10.4  15.8   9.8 |   2.8
    Ya |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   6.9   7.5         9.3  11.0  12.8   6.9 |   1.9
    Da |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   5.8   7.1   9.5        10.5  12.2   6.0 |   1.5
    RP |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   6.1   6.7   8.5   8.8        10.2   4.4 |   0.6
    Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.6   2.0   2.1   2.1   2.4         0.5 |   0.1
    SL |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1       |   0.0
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-2015 ECAC Pick the Standings Last Place


  4. #4

    Join Date
    Nov 1999
    Location
    Further on down the road
    Posts
    60,348

    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

    Quote Originally Posted by lugnut92 View Post
    Cornell should go ahead and lose a game.
    No need, you have that dummy tie to make the math work.
    Cornell University
    NCAA Champion 1967, 1970
    ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
    Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018

  5. #5
    Conductor emeritus
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    New Haven, CT
    Posts
    3,337

    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

    Cornell lost! Hooray! No more hypothetical tie! Generally this means that things will seem more dire for a while for those teams who don't have many wins. Everything to do with the Ivies remains a little screwy because of their low games played, but it'll work itself out eventually. Anyway, we're now past the quarter pole (yes I'm using that wrong I don't care) and no one plays any league games for a couple weekends (not counting stupid Tuesday games), so this information will have to tide us over for a bit.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1045.33 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Clarkson
    2. Cornell
    3. Union
    4. Colgate
    5. Quinnipiac
    6. Princeton
    7. RPI
    8. Harvard
    9. Dartmouth
    10. Yale
    11. Brown
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Ck |  605.2 |  73.9  25.1   0.9   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.27 | 39.07
    Cr |  596.2 |  25.6  68.2   5.5   0.6   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x |  1.81 | 36.85
    Un |   98.0 |   0.3   3.5  46.4  37.8   9.3   2.2   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  3.61 | 29.08
    Cg |  119.0 |   0.2   3.1  42.6  39.5  10.9   3.0   0.6   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  3.70 | 28.83
    Qu |   91.9 |   0.0   0.0   2.5  11.3  37.8  29.2  12.4   4.4   1.6   0.5   0.2   0.0 |  5.61 | 22.89
    Pr |   70.3 |   0.0   0.0   2.0   9.2  31.4  33.9  14.3   5.7   2.3   0.9   0.3   0.0 |  5.82 | 22.35
    RP |   43.5 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.9   5.9  15.6  29.4  20.2  13.4   8.5   5.3   0.7 |  7.67 | 18.05
    Ha |   27.2 |     x     x   0.0   0.3   2.4   7.4  16.9  22.9  20.1  15.6  11.8   2.6 |  8.57 | 16.01
    Da |   24.9 |     x     x   0.0   0.2   1.8   5.8  14.1  21.1  22.2  17.7  13.8   3.4 |  8.81 | 15.52
    Ya |   20.9 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.4   6.1  12.8  19.8  26.2  28.4   5.1 |  9.68 | 13.71
    Br |   20.9 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.5   5.7  12.0  19.1  26.8  29.5   5.2 |  9.72 | 13.71
    SL |   10.7 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.6   1.6   3.9  10.8  82.9 | 11.73 |  7.92
    
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Ck |  605.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   2.0   3.8   6.7  10.2  13.9  16.3  16.5  13.8   9.3   4.4   1.6 | 39.07
    Cr |  596.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.2   2.5   4.6   7.4  11.0  14.3  16.2  15.9  12.6   8.3   3.8   1.3     x     x | 36.85
    Un |   98.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.0   3.5   5.3   7.7   9.8  11.7  12.5  12.3  10.7   8.7   6.1   3.9   2.1   1.1   0.4   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x | 29.08
    Cg |  119.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.4   3.8   5.9   8.1  10.4  12.0  12.7  11.9  10.5   8.0   5.5   3.3   1.8   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 28.83
    Qu |   91.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.3   3.8   5.8   8.1  10.2  11.9  12.4  12.1  10.3   8.2   5.6   3.5   1.9   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.89
    Pr |   70.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.8   3.2   4.9   7.1   9.3  11.2  12.0  12.2  10.9   9.0   6.7   4.6   2.7   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.35
    RP |   43.5 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.3   3.9   5.7   7.9   9.8  11.4  11.9  11.6  10.1   8.2   6.0   4.0   2.4   1.3   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.05
    Ha |   27.2 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.2   2.4   4.0   6.1   8.2  10.3  11.6  12.0  11.2   9.8   7.8   5.7   3.8   2.4   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.01
    Da |   24.9 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.6   3.1   4.9   7.3   9.4  11.1  11.9  11.7  10.6   8.8   6.7   4.7   3.1   1.8   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.52
    Ya |   20.9 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.5   1.8   3.6   6.7   9.4  12.5  13.7  13.8  12.0   9.6   6.8   4.4   2.5   1.4   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.71
    Br |   20.9 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.6   1.8   3.6   6.6   9.5  12.5  13.7  13.7  11.9   9.6   6.8   4.4   2.6   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.71
    SL |   10.7 |   0.4   1.3   3.3   6.0   9.3  12.0  13.7  13.6  12.3   9.9   7.2   4.8   2.9   1.6   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  7.92
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Ck    Cr    Un    Cg    Qu    Pr    RP    Ha    Da    Ya    Br    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Ck |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
    Cr |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
    Un |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.6   0.7   1.1   1.2   8.1 |  88.1
    Cg |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.8   1.0   1.5   1.5   9.4 |  85.4
    Qu |     x     x   0.0   0.0     x   0.2   3.2   7.4   8.7  14.5  14.9  35.0 |  13.8
    Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1     x   4.0   8.4   9.8  16.2  16.6  30.3 |  11.1
    RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.5   0.6     x  12.4  14.0  17.7  17.8   8.2 |   1.0
    Ha |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.5   0.8   6.4     x  13.3  12.1  12.8   3.7 |   0.3
    Da |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.5   0.8   6.2   9.8     x  11.4  11.0   2.9 |   0.2
    Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.4   3.7   5.9   4.8     x   4.6   0.8 |   0.0
    Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.6   3.7   4.6   4.6   4.8     x   0.8 |   0.0
    SL |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.2   0.1   0.1     x |    NO
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-2015 ECAC Pick the Standings Last Place


  6. #6
    Conductor emeritus
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
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    Posts
    3,337

    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

    So we have the top two teams that will fight it out, the other two teams that for the time being look pretty locked into byes, and then just a mess where pretty much everyone is a little less than a win away from their neighbors. Clarkson and Cornell are basically projected to run the table from here in, but their KRACHs are pretty high right now and that's not necessarily going to last forever (though this is circular reasoning: Eventually they'll look like they might lose a few games once they've lost a few games).

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1044.85 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Clarkson
    2. Cornell
    3. Colgate
    4. Union
    5. Quinnipiac
    6. Princeton
    7. Harvard
    8. RPI
    9. Brown
    10. Dartmouth
    11. Yale
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Ck |  669.4 |  68.8  29.7   1.4   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.33 | 38.95
    Cr |  864.0 |  30.6  63.6   5.2   0.6   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.76 | 37.30
    Cg |  167.0 |   0.3   3.6  48.2  41.0   5.6   1.0   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  3.52 | 29.68
    Un |  127.0 |   0.3   3.1  43.4  45.1   6.6   1.2   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  3.59 | 29.35
    Qu |   82.5 |   0.0   0.0   1.4   8.9  49.5  23.0  10.2   4.4   1.8   0.7   0.2   0.0 |  5.57 | 22.57
    Pr |   64.1 |   0.0   0.0   0.3   2.7  20.9  33.9  20.8  11.4   5.9   2.9   1.2   0.1 |  6.52 | 20.31
    Ha |   42.2 |     x   0.0   0.1   1.2   9.9  18.5  23.3  19.1  13.1   8.7   5.2   0.8 |  7.54 | 18.03
    RP |   39.4 |     x     x   0.0   0.3   4.3  10.7  18.5  20.3  17.6  14.5  11.8   1.8 |  8.35 | 16.53
    Br |   33.3 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   1.3   5.1  11.2  17.5  22.1  22.6  17.8   2.2 |  9.04 | 15.13
    Da |   22.6 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   1.4   4.4   9.3  14.9  19.9  21.7  22.5   5.8 |  9.31 | 14.51
    Ya |   23.6 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   2.1   6.2  11.7  18.3  25.5  31.0   4.8 |  9.70 | 13.82
    SL |   11.7 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.2   3.3  10.4  84.4 | 11.77 |  7.81
    
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Ck |  669.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   1.0   2.1   4.1   7.0  10.8  14.4  16.7  16.3  13.1   8.6   3.8   1.3 | 38.95
    Cr |  864.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.6   3.2   5.8   9.3  13.3  16.2  17.0  14.8  10.4   5.2   1.9     x     x | 37.30
    Cg |  167.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.3   2.3   4.0   6.1   8.5  10.7  12.5  13.0  12.3  10.2   7.7   5.0   2.9   1.4   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 29.68
    Un |  127.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   3.0   4.7   7.0   9.3  11.4  12.5  12.7  11.3   9.4   6.7   4.4   2.4   1.3   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x | 29.35
    Qu |   82.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.4   2.6   4.3   6.4   9.0  11.1  12.6  12.7  11.9   9.7   7.3   4.7   2.8   1.4   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.57
    Pr |   64.1 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   3.1   4.9   7.3   9.5  11.6  12.5  12.5  11.1   9.1   6.5   4.3   2.4   1.3   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.31
    Ha |   42.2 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.3   2.4   4.0   6.0   8.0  10.0  11.2  11.7  11.1   9.9   7.9   5.9   4.0   2.6   1.5   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.03
    RP |   39.4 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   3.1   4.8   7.0   9.0  10.9  11.8  12.0  10.8   9.1   7.0   4.9   3.1   1.8   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.53
    Br |   33.3 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.6   1.4   3.1   5.2   8.3  10.8  12.9  13.3  12.7  10.6   8.2   5.5   3.5   1.9   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.13
    Da |   22.6 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.6   2.9   5.0   7.2   9.6  11.3  12.3  11.9  10.7   8.8   6.7   4.6   3.0   1.7   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 14.51
    Ya |   23.6 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.5   1.6   3.3   6.3   9.1  12.3  13.6  13.9  12.3  10.0   7.1   4.6   2.7   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.82
    SL |   11.7 |   0.4   1.3   3.6   6.3   9.7  12.3  13.9  13.6  12.1   9.6   6.9   4.5   2.7   1.5   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  7.81
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Ck    Cr    Cg    Un    Qu    Pr    Ha    RP    Br    Da    Ya    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Ck |           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x     x     x   0.0 | 100.0
    Cr |     x           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
    Cg |     x     x           x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.7   0.6   4.9 |  93.1
    Un |     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.4   0.7   0.7   5.7 |  91.9
    Qu |     x     x   0.0   0.0         0.8   2.8   5.8   8.9  11.4  13.1  44.5 |  10.2
    Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3         5.1   9.8  14.1  16.5  19.2  22.0 |   3.0
    Ha |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.5   1.9        10.3  15.0  15.4  16.5  11.3 |   1.3
    RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.6   1.9   6.3        13.1  12.9  13.4   5.7 |   0.3
    Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.5   2.4   5.2   8.2         8.0   8.7   2.3 |   0.1
    Da |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.5   1.9   4.1   6.4   7.8         7.3   2.0 |   0.1
    Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.2   4.0   4.7   5.1   4.3         0.9 |   0.0
    SL |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1       |    NO
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-2015 ECAC Pick the Standings Last Place


  7. #7
    Registered User
    Join Date
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    Endicott, NY
    Posts
    353

    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

    I shouldn't have laughed at this, but in the BYE column, KRACH doesn't even give SLU a 0.0 chance. It literally just says "NO".

  8. #8
    Made in the USA
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Posts
    45,574

    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

    Quote Originally Posted by StayPuftMMcu View Post
    I shouldn't have laughed at this, but in the BYE column, KRACH doesn't even give SLU a 0.0 chance. It literally just says "NO".
    Mathematically, they have a shot at it. Probably just didn't happen in any of the 1,000,000 simulations.
    It was an honor to present your colors, RPI. Let's Go 'TUTE!
    May 14th, 2011, 11:00 PM ET: 2147483647

    "Better to be infamous than never famous at all." -Roger Stone

    Quote Originally Posted by French Rage View Post
    Ahh crap I agree exactly with what FlagDude said.
    Quote Originally Posted by Handyman View Post
    And yet, even if Flaggy is complete tinfoil hat, every day it looks closer and closer to the truth.
    Quote Originally Posted by burd View Post
    So flaggy: you win.

  9. #9
    Conductor emeritus
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
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    3,337

    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

    Quote Originally Posted by FlagDUDE08 View Post
    Mathematically, they have a shot at it. Probably just didn't happen in any of the 1,000,000 simulations.
    This is accurate.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-2015 ECAC Pick the Standings Last Place


  10. #10
    Conductor emeritus
    Join Date
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    Location
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    Posts
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    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

    With everyone except the North Country done with the league schedule for 2017, the most action is happening at the home-road line, with positions 8 through 11 separated by just over two points. Elsewhere, Cornell is Clarkson's only real competition for the Cleary, Harvard is locked in fifth, and the Princeton-Quinnipiac travel pair is wonderfully mediocre.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1041.03 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Clarkson
    2. Cornell
    3. Colgate
    4. Union
    5. Harvard
    6. Quinnipiac
    7. Princeton
    8. Brown
    9. Yale
    10. RPI
    11. Dartmouth
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Ck |  627.7 |  78.0  21.3   0.6   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.23 | 38.99
    Cr |  522.7 |  21.6  71.9   5.7   0.7   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.86 | 36.18
    Cg |  127.8 |   0.2   4.1  47.5  33.7  11.0   2.4   0.7   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x |  3.63 | 28.38
    Un |  112.2 |   0.1   2.5  37.8  39.0  16.3   3.1   0.8   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  3.83 | 27.58
    Ha |   82.0 |   0.0   0.2   7.7  21.5  44.6  15.2   6.3   2.7   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.0 |  5.07 | 23.82
    Qu |   66.2 |     x   0.0   0.3   2.5  12.6  31.3  22.8  14.2   8.7   5.1   2.3   0.2 |  6.92 | 19.66
    Pr |   57.8 |     x   0.0   0.2   1.7   9.0  24.0  25.3  17.7  11.6   7.0   3.2   0.3 |  7.28 | 19.04
    Br |   43.1 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   2.5   9.5  16.3  20.8  20.8  17.6  11.4   0.7 |  8.49 | 16.70
    Ya |   32.7 |     x     x   0.0   0.2   1.3   4.9   9.8  16.1  21.3  24.3  20.6   1.5 |  9.14 | 15.71
    RP |   38.1 |     x     x   0.0   0.2   1.8   6.0  10.6  15.6  18.9  21.4  22.5   3.0 |  9.12 | 15.56
    Da |   25.2 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.8   3.5   7.4  12.3  16.6  22.0  31.4   5.9 |  9.61 | 14.62
    SL |   12.9 |     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   2.1   8.4  88.4 | 11.84 |  7.76
    
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Ck |  627.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.2   4.2   7.0  10.5  13.9  16.2  16.1  13.3   9.0   4.3   1.5 | 38.99
    Cr |  522.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.2   2.3   4.0   6.7   9.8  12.8  14.9  15.1  13.5   9.7   5.9   2.5   0.8     x     x | 36.18
    Cg |  127.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.9   3.2   4.9   7.0   9.1  10.9  11.9  12.1  11.0   9.3   6.9   4.7   2.8   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 28.38
    Un |  112.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.4   2.6   4.3   6.6   8.8  11.2  12.3  12.9  11.5   9.8   7.1   4.9   2.8   1.5   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 27.58
    Ha |   82.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.5   4.0   6.2   8.3  10.6  11.8  12.4  11.6  10.1   7.7   5.5   3.4   2.0   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 23.82
    Qu |   66.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.1   2.2   4.1   6.2   9.1  11.3  13.3  13.1  12.3   9.8   7.4   4.6   2.7   1.3   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.66
    Pr |   57.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.7   3.2   5.5   7.9  10.8  12.4  13.5  12.5  11.0   8.2   5.7   3.3   1.8   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.04
    Br |   43.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.2   0.7   1.6   3.8   6.1   9.6  11.9  14.1  13.6  12.6   9.7   7.1   4.3   2.5   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.70
    Ya |   32.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.4   1.6   3.2   6.5   9.2  12.8  13.9  14.4  12.3  10.0   6.8   4.3   2.3   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.71
    RP |   38.1 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.3   2.5   4.6   6.8   9.6  11.4  12.9  12.5  11.5   9.2   6.9   4.5   2.8   1.5   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.56
    Da |   25.2 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.1   2.5   4.3   7.0   9.4  11.8  12.7  12.7  11.2   9.3   6.9   4.7   2.8   1.6   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 14.62
    SL |   12.9 |   0.5   1.4   3.7   6.5  10.0  12.5  13.9  13.5  11.9   9.4   6.8   4.4   2.7   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  7.76
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Ck    Cr    Cg    Un    Ha    Qu    Pr    Br    Ya    RP    Da    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Ck |           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
    Cr |     x           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
    Cg |     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.8   1.0   1.7  10.0 |  85.6
    Un |     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.1   0.2   0.7   1.1   1.6   2.0  14.7 |  79.5
    Ha |     x     x   0.0   0.0         0.9   1.3   3.9   6.0   6.4   9.4  40.7 |  29.3
    Qu |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2         4.4  11.8  16.2  15.5  18.3  14.5 |   2.8
    Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   3.2        11.8  16.5  15.9  17.6  10.7 |   1.9
    Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   3.5   5.7        12.1  12.4  11.3   3.6 |   0.4
    Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   3.0   4.0   8.1         7.3   7.3   2.0 |   0.2
    RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   3.3   3.6   7.5   8.8         8.1   2.4 |   0.2
    Da |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   2.2   2.6   6.3   6.1   5.5         1.1 |   0.1
    SL |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1       |   0.0
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
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  11. #11
    RIP WaP Ralph Baer's Avatar
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    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

    Quote Originally Posted by FlagDUDE08 View Post
    Mathematically, they have a shot at it. Probably just didn't happen in any of the 1,000,000 simulations.
    lugnut92 hit upon at least one this time.

  12. #12
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    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

    Quote Originally Posted by Ralph Baer View Post
    lugnut92 hit upon at least one this time.
    Yup, exactly once they ended up in third. I imagine that was the one time the simulator got them up to 27 points.
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  13. #13
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    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

    Just out of curiosity, how long does it take to run 1,000,000 simulations? Not that we'd expect you to run 100 dodectillion simulations, mind you...
    It was an honor to present your colors, RPI. Let's Go 'TUTE!
    May 14th, 2011, 11:00 PM ET: 2147483647

    "Better to be infamous than never famous at all." -Roger Stone

    Quote Originally Posted by French Rage View Post
    Ahh crap I agree exactly with what FlagDude said.
    Quote Originally Posted by Handyman View Post
    And yet, even if Flaggy is complete tinfoil hat, every day it looks closer and closer to the truth.
    Quote Originally Posted by burd View Post
    So flaggy: you win.

  14. #14
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    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

    Quote Originally Posted by FlagDUDE08 View Post
    Just out of curiosity, how long does it take to run 1,000,000 simulations? Not that we'd expect you to run 100 dodectillion simulations, mind you...
    This one took 412.2 seconds, but we're also a little over a third of the way into the season. At its longest, it takes about ten minutes. When I tried to do an exhaustive sim of the last two weeks of the season, it took over a week.
    RPI Pep Band
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  15. #15
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    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

    Only a pair of ECAC games this week, but a bunch of other games led to a rejiggering of each team's KRACH. No one changed position, so whatever.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1040.08 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Clarkson
    2. Cornell
    3. Colgate
    4. Union
    5. Harvard
    6. Quinnipiac
    7. Princeton
    8. Brown
    9. Yale
    10. RPI
    11. Dartmouth
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Ck |  589.4 |  80.9  18.7   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.19 | 39.50
    Cr |  497.4 |  18.9  75.9   4.7   0.5   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x |  1.87 | 36.42
    Cg |  103.4 |   0.1   2.8  43.4  37.3  12.3   2.9   0.9   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x |  3.73 | 27.91
    Un |  101.4 |   0.1   2.5  43.7  36.7  13.8   2.4   0.6   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  3.72 | 27.85
    Ha |   68.8 |   0.0   0.1   7.4  20.5  45.0  15.3   6.5   3.1   1.5   0.6   0.2   0.0 |  5.12 | 23.59
    Qu |   52.3 |     x   0.0   0.2   2.0  11.2  28.2  22.6  15.5  10.4   6.6   3.0   0.2 |  7.12 | 19.22
    Pr |   50.4 |     x   0.0   0.2   1.9   9.9  24.9  23.9  16.9  11.6   7.2   3.1   0.3 |  7.24 | 19.05
    Br |   34.4 |     x     x   0.0   0.3   2.3   8.7  14.7  19.4  21.2  19.7  12.9   0.8 |  8.62 | 16.46
    Ya |   34.2 |     x     x   0.0   0.4   2.5   7.8  13.3  18.7  21.4  20.9  14.2   0.9 |  8.71 | 16.44
    RP |   34.6 |     x     x   0.0   0.3   2.4   7.3  11.9  16.0  18.6  21.3  19.8   2.3 |  8.95 | 15.87
    Da |   19.6 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.5   2.6   5.6   9.8  14.5  21.5  37.9   7.5 |  9.88 | 14.05
    SL |   11.6 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   2.0   9.0  88.0 | 11.84 |  7.66
    
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Ck |  589.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.3   2.7   5.2   8.6  12.5  15.9  17.5  15.6  11.5   5.9   2.4 | 39.50
    Cr |  497.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.9   3.4   5.9   9.0  12.3  14.9  15.6  14.2  10.7   6.7   2.9   1.0     x     x | 36.42
    Cg |  103.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.7   1.4   2.4   4.0   5.8   8.0   9.9  11.5  12.0  11.8  10.2   8.2   5.8   3.8   2.1   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 27.91
    Un |  101.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.2   3.7   5.9   8.2  10.7  12.2  13.1  12.1  10.5   7.8   5.5   3.1   1.7   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 27.85
    Ha |   68.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.5   2.8   4.4   6.7   8.8  11.0  12.1  12.4  11.3   9.7   7.2   5.0   3.0   1.7   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 23.59
    Qu |   52.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.5   2.8   5.1   7.4  10.4  12.1  13.5  12.7  11.4   8.6   6.2   3.7   2.0   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.22
    Pr |   50.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.7   3.1   5.5   7.8  10.8  12.4  13.6  12.5  11.1   8.1   5.7   3.3   1.9   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.05
    Br |   34.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.2   0.9   1.9   4.4   6.8  10.4  12.5  14.4  13.5  12.1   9.0   6.3   3.8   2.1   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.46
    Ya |   34.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.2   0.9   2.0   4.4   6.8  10.5  12.5  14.4  13.5  12.0   9.0   6.3   3.7   2.1   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.44
    RP |   34.6 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.1   2.1   3.9   6.0   8.8  10.8  12.6  12.6  12.0   9.9   7.6   5.2   3.3   1.9   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.87
    Da |   19.6 |     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.2   0.8   1.6   3.5   5.7   8.6  10.9  12.8  12.9  12.2  10.1   7.9   5.4   3.5   2.0   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 14.05
    SL |   11.6 |   0.6   1.5   4.0   6.7  10.3  12.6  14.1  13.4  11.8   9.2   6.5   4.2   2.5   1.3   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  7.66
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Ck    Cr    Cg    Un    Ha    Qu    Pr    Br    Ya    RP    Da    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Ck |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
    Cr |     x           x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
    Cg |     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.2   0.2   0.7   0.7   1.1   2.3  11.1 |  83.5
    Un |     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.1   0.1   0.6   0.6   1.1   1.9  12.5 |  83.0
    Ha |     x     x   0.0   0.0         1.3   1.4   4.6   4.6   5.9  11.2  40.9 |  27.9
    Qu |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3         4.7  12.9  13.4  14.2  19.0  12.9 |   2.2
    Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   4.0        12.6  13.8  14.9  18.4  11.6 |   2.2
    Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   4.1   5.5        10.3  11.1  10.1   3.3 |   0.3
    Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.6   4.2   4.7  10.3         9.5   9.6   3.4 |   0.4
    RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   4.1   3.7   8.3   9.2         8.8   3.1 |   0.3
    Da |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   2.2   2.0   4.8   4.6   4.1         0.8 |   0.1
    SL |     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.0       |   0.0
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
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    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

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  16. #16
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    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

    Here we are on the other side of the Christmas break. No more ECAC games have been played, but pretty much everyone has played a couple games, which should make their KRACH values more accurate. I'm doing this now instead of waiting until Tuesday and Wednesday's games are played because I feel like it. So the clashes at the dividing lines are going fine, with the 3-5 and 6-10 battles both within a couple of wins.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1040.08 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Clarkson
    2. Cornell
    3. Colgate
    4. Union
    5. Harvard
    6. Princeton
    7. Quinnipiac
    8. Dartmouth
    9. Yale
    10. Brown
    11. RPI
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Ck |  608.6 |  76.6  23.1   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.24 | 39.07
    Cr |  594.9 |  23.3  74.0   2.5   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x |  1.80 | 36.51
    Cg |  107.8 |   0.1   1.9  48.4  29.8  12.7   4.4   1.7   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  3.79 | 26.94
    Un |   92.0 |   0.0   0.9  34.6  34.5  19.2   6.6   2.6   1.0   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.11 | 25.85
    Ha |   83.1 |   0.0   0.1  12.0  24.7  33.3  15.0   7.4   3.9   2.1   1.0   0.4   0.1 |  5.08 | 23.31
    Pr |   76.2 |     x   0.0   1.1   4.8  13.5  24.6  20.3  14.9  10.4   6.7   3.0   0.6 |  7.01 | 19.56
    Qu |   58.4 |     x   0.0   0.4   2.2   8.0  17.8  19.8  17.8  14.6  11.2   6.6   1.7 |  7.73 | 18.24
    Da |   50.6 |     x   0.0   0.4   1.9   5.8  12.6  16.7  17.6  16.4  14.6  10.6   3.4 |  8.22 | 17.46
    Ya |   50.1 |     x     x   0.2   1.1   3.9   8.9  13.8  17.8  20.2  19.3  12.5   2.4 |  8.58 | 16.87
    Br |   44.1 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.6   2.7   7.5  12.2  16.8  20.7  22.2  14.3   2.9 |  8.82 | 16.37
    RP |   33.7 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.8   2.5   5.0   8.1  12.4  19.1  35.9  16.1 | 10.10 | 13.93
    SL |   27.6 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.3   2.6   5.7  16.8  72.8 | 11.54 |  9.89
    
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Ck |  608.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   1.0   2.1   4.0   6.7  10.1  13.7  16.0  16.4  13.6   9.5   4.5   1.7 | 39.07
    Cr |  594.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.8   3.3   5.6   8.6  11.9  14.6  15.7  14.6  11.2   7.1   3.2   1.1     x     x | 36.51
    Cg |  107.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.6   4.0   5.9   7.8   9.8  11.1  11.7  11.2  10.1   8.1   6.0   4.0   2.4   1.3   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 26.94
    Un |   92.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.3   2.5   4.0   6.2   8.2  10.5  11.6  12.4  11.5  10.1   7.7   5.6   3.5   2.1   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 25.85
    Ha |   83.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.0   3.4   5.1   7.3   9.2  11.1  11.8  11.9  10.6   8.9   6.6   4.5   2.7   1.6   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 23.31
    Pr |   76.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.4   2.5   4.4   6.5   9.3  11.2  12.9  12.6  11.9   9.4   7.3   4.6   2.8   1.4   0.7   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.56
    Qu |   58.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.6   3.2   5.0   7.8   9.9  12.1  12.7  12.6  10.8   8.8   6.1   4.0   2.2   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.24
    Da |   50.6 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.8   3.1   5.1   7.1   9.4  10.9  11.9  11.7  10.7   8.8   6.8   4.7   3.0   1.7   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.46
    Ya |   50.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.2   0.8   1.6   3.7   5.8   9.0  11.2  13.5  13.3  12.6  10.1   7.7   4.9   3.0   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.87
    Br |   44.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.3   1.1   2.3   4.8   7.1  10.6  12.3  14.0  13.0  11.6   8.8   6.2   3.8   2.2   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.37
    RP |   33.7 |     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.3   0.9   1.9   3.9   6.0   8.9  10.9  12.7  12.6  11.9   9.8   7.6   5.2   3.4   1.9   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.93
    SL |   27.6 |   0.1   0.3   1.1   2.1   4.2   6.3   9.1  10.9  12.4  12.2  11.5   9.5   7.5   5.2   3.4   2.0   1.1   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.89
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Ck    Cr    Cg    Un    Ha    Pr    Qu    Da    Ya    Br    RP    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Ck |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
    Cr |     x           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
    Cg |     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.4   0.9   1.3   1.2   1.4   3.9  10.2 |  80.1
    Un |     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.5   1.2   1.6   2.0   2.3   6.5  15.2 |  70.1
    Ha |     x     x   0.0   0.0         1.5   3.0   4.6   4.9   5.9  12.7  26.9 |  36.9
    Pr |     x     x   0.1   0.1   0.5         6.5   9.6  11.6  12.3  17.0  15.6 |   5.9
    Qu |     x     x   0.1   0.1   0.5   4.5         9.2  11.8  12.9  14.0  10.5 |   2.6
    Da |     x     x   0.1   0.1   0.5   3.6   6.7        10.7  11.6  11.7   7.8 |   2.3
    Ya |     x     x   0.1   0.2   0.8   4.0   6.5   7.9        10.0   9.0   5.8 |   1.3
    Br |     x     x   0.1   0.1   0.6   4.5   5.8   7.0   8.2         8.3   4.5 |   0.7
    RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   1.5   3.0   3.2   3.6   3.3         1.4 |   0.2
    SL |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.4   0.4   0.3   0.4   0.3       |   0.0
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-2015 ECAC Pick the Standings Last Place


  17. #17
    Conductor emeritus
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    New Haven, CT
    Posts
    3,337

    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

    Real ECAC games! What a concept! We still have veeeeery tight races at the breaklines, so we could be looking at a hell of a second half. Woo!

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1035.78 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Clarkson
    2. Cornell
    3. Colgate
    4. Harvard
    5. Union
    6. Quinnipiac
    7. Yale
    8. Princeton
    9. Dartmouth
    10. Brown
    11. RPI
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Ck |  693.3 |  70.8  29.0   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.29 | 39.09
    Cr |  710.2 |  29.2  70.1   0.7   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.72 | 37.30
    Cg |  107.1 |   0.0   0.5  41.7  28.3  19.5   6.3   2.3   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.03 | 25.85
    Ha |  106.4 |   0.0   0.2  28.2  33.3  25.0   8.4   3.1   1.2   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.30 | 25.04
    Un |   90.3 |   0.0   0.2  27.4  29.7  28.1   9.3   3.4   1.3   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.37 | 24.87
    Qu |   74.6 |     x   0.0   0.9   4.1  12.0  29.4  21.1  14.5   9.5   5.6   2.3   0.6 |  6.93 | 19.58
    Ya |   66.9 |     x   0.0   0.5   2.0   5.4  12.7  17.8  19.5  18.7  14.8   6.7   1.9 |  8.06 | 17.65
    Pr |   71.9 |     x     x   0.1   0.9   3.8  13.3  19.1  19.7  18.4  15.2   7.1   2.4 |  8.19 | 17.42
    Da |   52.9 |     x   0.0   0.2   1.0   3.5  11.2  16.2  18.4  18.8  17.8   9.3   3.6 |  8.43 | 17.01
    Br |   51.1 |     x     x   0.1   0.7   2.6   8.2  14.0  18.2  21.2  21.6  10.2   3.1 |  8.66 | 16.56
    RP |   32.9 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.4   3.2   6.5  13.9  37.8  36.6 | 10.92 | 12.29
    SL |   41.0 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   1.6   3.0   5.6  10.7  26.5  51.6 | 11.10 | 11.34
    
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Ck |  693.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   2.0   3.8   6.6  10.1  13.7  16.2  16.5  13.6   9.5   4.5   1.8 | 39.09
    Cr |  710.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.7   3.3   5.9   9.3  13.2  16.2  17.0  14.7  10.5   5.1   2.0     x     x | 37.30
    Cg |  107.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.3   4.0   6.0   8.3  10.3  12.1  12.4  12.0  10.1   8.0   5.4   3.5   1.8   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 25.85
    Ha |  106.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.8   3.1   5.5   7.7  10.7  12.3  13.7  12.5  11.3   8.2   5.8   3.2   1.8   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 25.04
    Un |   90.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.9   1.9   3.7   5.7   8.7  10.7  13.0  13.0  12.6  10.2   8.0   5.1   3.2   1.6   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.87
    Qu |   74.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.1   2.1   4.2   6.3   9.5  11.5  13.7  13.2  12.6   9.5   7.3   4.3   2.5   1.1   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.58
    Ya |   66.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   2.3   3.9   6.8   9.0  12.0  12.9  13.5  11.7  10.0   6.9   4.7   2.6   1.4   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.65
    Pr |   71.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.2   2.3   4.5   6.7  10.0  11.7  13.9  13.0  12.2   9.2   6.8   3.9   2.2   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.42
    Da |   52.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.8   2.0   3.4   5.9   8.2  10.9  12.2  13.0  12.0  10.4   7.9   5.6   3.5   2.0   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.01
    Br |   51.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.3   1.0   2.1   4.4   6.6  10.0  11.9  13.8  13.1  12.0   9.3   6.8   4.2   2.5   1.2   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.56
    RP |   32.9 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.7   1.6   4.6   7.3  11.7  13.6  15.3  13.7  11.7   8.3   5.6   3.1   1.6   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.29
    SL |   41.0 |   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.8   1.9   3.2   5.5   7.5  10.0  11.2  12.2  11.5  10.5   8.4   6.4   4.4   2.8   1.6   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 11.34
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Ck    Cr    Cg    Ha    Un    Qu    Ya    Pr    Da    Br    RP    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Ck |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
    Cr |     x           x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
    Cg |     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.6   1.1   1.8   2.0   1.8   9.4  12.4 |  70.4
    Ha |     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.6   1.7   1.9   2.6   2.7  13.1  15.2 |  61.7
    Un |     x     x   0.0   0.0         0.6   1.8   2.1   2.8   2.9  14.4  17.5 |  57.3
    Qu |     x     x   0.1   0.1   0.1         8.8   9.1  10.2  12.3  19.2  17.1 |   5.0
    Ya |     x     x   0.1   0.1   0.2   3.8         9.1  10.3  11.6  10.7   9.5 |   2.5
    Pr |     x     x   0.1   0.1   0.1   3.6   9.9        11.1  11.5  10.8   8.7 |   1.0
    Da |     x     x   0.1   0.1   0.1   3.8   9.1   8.0        11.2   9.4   7.4 |   1.2
    Br |     x     x   0.1   0.1   0.1   3.6   7.8   9.1   8.5         7.4   6.3 |   0.9
    RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.7   1.2   0.9   0.9   1.0         0.4 |   0.0
    SL |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.7   0.9   1.1   1.1   1.0   0.6       |   0.0
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-2015 ECAC Pick the Standings Last Place


  18. #18
    Conductor emeritus
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    New Haven, CT
    Posts
    3,337

    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

    Sweet, sweet twelve-game weekend in early January. The best. Well, Colgate didn't do so hot, so they dropped out of bye territory, but the gap between 5th and 3rd remains under one point. Same basic deal between 7th and 9th. Like it has been all season.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1030.06 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Clarkson
    2. Cornell
    3. Harvard
    4. Union
    5. Colgate
    6. Yale
    7. Quinnipiac
    8. Princeton
    9. Dartmouth
    10. Brown
    11. RPI
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Ck |  706.0 |  85.8  14.2   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.14 | 39.80
    Cr |  548.7 |  14.2  84.6   1.1   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.87 | 36.29
    Ha |  110.3 |   0.0   0.3  37.4  33.1  21.2   6.3   1.3   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x |  4.01 | 26.03
    Un |   92.1 |   0.0   0.5  30.3  30.5  25.9   9.1   2.6   0.8   0.2   0.0   0.0     x |  4.25 | 25.45
    Cg |   98.2 |   0.0   0.4  28.7  27.9  27.1  10.9   3.3   1.1   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.36 | 25.07
    Ya |   82.2 |     x   0.0   2.2   6.7  15.3  28.2  20.0  13.7   8.9   3.9   1.1   0.1 |  6.60 | 20.48
    Qu |   66.0 |     x     x   0.1   0.6   3.9  16.8  23.5  21.5  17.8  10.9   4.3   0.6 |  7.83 | 18.32
    Pr |   73.2 |     x     x   0.0   0.3   2.5  13.2  20.8  22.6  20.5  14.1   5.3   0.8 |  8.12 | 17.68
    Da |   54.0 |     x     x   0.1   0.8   3.3  11.6  18.2  21.8  21.6  15.1   6.3   1.1 |  8.20 | 17.57
    Br |   45.1 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.6   3.1   8.0  13.1  20.1  32.2  19.9   2.9 |  9.39 | 15.34
    RP |   34.3 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   2.2   4.7   9.4  21.2  54.6   7.2 | 10.40 | 13.38
    SL |   32.0 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.0   2.6   8.5  87.3 | 11.81 |  8.59
    
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Ck |  706.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.0   2.1   4.2   7.3  11.4  15.2  17.8  16.6  13.4   7.1   3.3 | 39.80
    Cr |  548.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.6   3.2   5.9   9.4  13.4  16.2  17.3  14.5  10.5   4.7   2.1     x     x     x | 36.29
    Ha |  110.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.2   2.4   4.9   7.5  11.6  13.3  15.6  13.7  12.2   7.9   5.2   2.4   1.1   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 26.03
    Un |   92.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   2.4   3.9   7.1   9.4  12.9  13.4  14.3  11.7   9.9   6.2   4.1   1.9   0.9   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 25.45
    Cg |   98.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.7   3.0   5.4   7.6  10.7  12.3  13.8  12.7  11.3   8.3   5.9   3.3   1.8   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 25.07
    Ya |   82.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.8   2.2   3.7   6.9   9.3  12.9  13.6  14.7  12.0  10.1   6.3   4.1   1.8   0.9   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.48
    Qu |   66.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.2   0.8   1.7   4.2   6.3  11.0  12.7  16.0  14.1  13.3   8.7   6.1   2.8   1.4   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.32
    Pr |   73.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.2   3.2   5.3   9.5  11.7  15.6  14.6  14.5  10.0   7.4   3.6   1.9   0.6   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.68
    Da |   54.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.2   0.8   1.7   4.1   6.3  10.0  12.1  14.4  13.6  12.6   9.5   6.8   4.0   2.2   1.0   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.57
    Br |   45.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.6   2.2   3.8   7.7  10.1  14.0  14.1  14.5  11.5   9.2   5.7   3.5   1.7   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.34
    RP |   34.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.5   2.9   7.8  10.4  15.5  15.2  15.6  11.8   9.0   5.2   3.0   1.3   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.38
    SL |   32.0 |   0.3   0.7   2.3   4.0   7.3   9.7  12.6  13.2  13.2  11.4   9.3   6.5   4.4   2.5   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  8.59
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Ck    Cr    Ha    Un    Cg    Ya    Qu    Pr    Da    Br    RP    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Ck |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |   YES
    Cr |     x           x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
    Ha |     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   0.9   0.8   2.2   5.7  18.7 |  70.9
    Un |     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.2   0.9   1.2   1.4   3.5   7.8  23.6 |  61.3
    Cg |     x     x   0.0   0.0         0.2   1.4   1.9   1.7   4.3   8.3  24.7 |  57.0
    Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.1         6.2   7.9   8.9  15.8  21.8  16.5 |   8.9
    Qu |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   3.6        11.7  10.5  17.5  16.5   5.7 |   0.7
    Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.1   3.7   8.2        13.4  15.2  14.3   4.0 |   0.3
    Da |     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.1   3.6   9.8   8.8        14.9  13.2   4.6 |   0.9
    Br |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.8   4.6   6.7   5.8         4.6   1.2 |   0.1
    RP |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.8   1.8   1.5   1.7   1.5         0.3 |   0.0
    SL |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1       |   0.0
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-2015 ECAC Pick the Standings Last Place


  19. #19
    Conductor emeritus
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    New Haven, CT
    Posts
    3,337

    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

    We have a lead change to announce! Clarkson only pulling one point at home has dropped them below Cornell for the first time in two months. Our big **** heroes in green, Dartmouth, jumped quite a few spots with their upset of Clarkson (and also beating SLU, but who doesn't beat SLU, I mean honestly). The battle for a bye has calmed, as the 4th place Dutchmen are projected to outpace Colgate by over 3 points, but the struggle for first round home ice lives on, with Quinnipiac and Princeton separated by less than a point.

    Simulated Final Standings (Monte Carlo simulation of 1025.29 possibilites; n=1,000,000):
    1. Cornell
    2. Clarkson
    3. Harvard
    4. Union
    5. Colgate
    6. Dartmouth
    7. Yale
    8. Quinnipiac
    9. Princeton
    10. Brown
    11. RPI
    12. SLU

    Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

    Rank and Points breakdown:
    Code:
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  631.8 |  58.3  41.1   0.6   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.42 | 37.39
    Ck |  465.6 |  41.6  57.1   1.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.60 | 36.33
    Ha |  132.2 |   0.0   1.1  47.9  34.2  12.9   3.1   0.7   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x |  3.71 | 27.61
    Un |  104.2 |   0.0   0.6  38.4  39.1  17.1   3.8   0.8   0.1   0.0     x     x     x |  3.88 | 27.14
    Cg |   93.5 |   0.0   0.1  10.7  20.0  36.9  18.0   8.8   4.0   1.3   0.3   0.0     x |  5.13 | 23.97
    Da |   76.8 |     x   0.0   0.9   4.3  16.9  30.7  22.8  14.6   7.5   2.3   0.1   0.0 |  6.56 | 21.22
    Ya |   83.4 |     x   0.0   0.2   1.8   9.9  19.6  23.4  22.8  17.1   5.1   0.1   0.0 |  7.27 | 20.03
    Qu |   76.2 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   3.9  13.6  22.8  25.6  21.8  10.3   1.5   0.1 |  7.84 | 18.97
    Pr |   78.2 |     x     x   0.0   0.2   2.1   9.9  16.5  22.6  27.5  18.9   2.1   0.1 |  8.29 | 18.06
    Br |   47.5 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.4   4.1   9.9  23.4  54.4   6.4   0.2 |  9.44 | 15.48
    RP |   29.9 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.4   8.3  85.6   4.4 | 10.92 | 11.39
    SL |   27.0 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   4.2  95.2 | 11.95 |  6.39
    
       |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41 |AvgPts
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |  631.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.0   2.4   4.9   8.9  13.5  18.0  18.7  17.1   9.7   5.3 | 37.39
    Ck |  465.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.5   3.1   5.9   9.2  13.6  16.0  17.6  14.2  11.0   4.7   2.3 | 36.33
    Ha |  132.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.0   3.0   5.1   9.8  12.0  16.8  15.0  15.4   9.6   7.1   2.8   1.4   0.3   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x | 27.61
    Un |  104.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.5   2.2   3.7   8.2  10.4  15.5  14.6  15.9  11.2   9.1   4.5   2.7   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 27.14
    Cg |   93.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.7   1.4   3.1   5.0   8.4  10.6  13.8  13.7  14.0  10.8   8.6   4.9   3.0   1.2   0.5   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 23.97
    Da |   76.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.2   0.8   1.8   4.5   6.8  11.5  13.0  16.1  13.9  12.8   8.3   5.7   2.7   1.3   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.22
    Ya |   83.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.5   2.3   3.8   8.6  10.8  16.1  14.9  15.8  10.9   8.5   4.2   2.3   0.7   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.03
    Qu |   76.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   2.6   4.5   8.5  10.9  15.0  14.6  15.1  10.9   8.5   4.4   2.5   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.97
    Pr |   78.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   2.4   4.2   8.1  10.6  14.8  14.6  15.4  11.2   8.8   4.6   2.6   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.06
    Br |   47.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.1   2.2   7.0   9.5  15.7  15.4  17.0  12.3   9.7   5.3   3.0   1.2   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.48
    RP |   29.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   7.2   9.8  19.3  17.8  18.5  12.2   8.4   4.0   1.9   0.6   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 11.39
    SL |   27.0 |   1.6   3.2   8.0  10.8  15.0  15.1  14.8  11.6   8.7   5.3   3.2   1.6   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  6.39
    Bold is each team's most likely outcome.
    0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
    x means the outcome never occurred.
    Playoff Matchups:
    Code:
       |    Cr    Ck    Ha    Un    Cg    Da    Ya    Qu    Pr    Br    RP    SL |   BYE
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cr |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
    Ck |     x           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0 | 100.0
    Ha |     x     x           x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.3   0.5   3.4  12.3 |  83.3
    Un |     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.8   4.2  16.4 |  78.2
    Cg |     x     x   0.0   0.0         0.3   0.6   2.3   3.9   7.0  17.8  35.8 |  30.8
    Da |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2         3.3   7.5   9.0  18.3  29.1  17.7 |   5.2
    Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.5   2.2         9.2  13.9  20.4  19.1  10.5 |   2.1
    Qu |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   2.0   7.1        16.3  21.7  14.0   4.4 |   0.4
    Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   3.7   8.5  10.2        15.6  10.3   2.5 |   0.2
    Br |     x     x   0.0     x   0.3   1.6   2.6   4.2   5.1         1.7   0.3 |   0.0
    RP |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1         0.0 |    NO
    SL |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |    NO
    Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2017-2018 RPI Pick to Click Champion
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner-Up
    2014-2015 ECAC Pick the Standings Last Place


  20. #20
    Capt
    Join Date
    Jan 2003
    Location
    I'm on a boat/TPAFL
    Posts
    12,478

    Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2017-18

    I find it funny that the simulation finds SLU will magically receive 5 points during the remainder of the season.

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