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Thread: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

  1. #61
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    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

    Just got back in time!!!! Will have to put both my picks and Jenny's together on this one post as she cannot seem to remember her login information password and is too pressed for time so here goes.

    Me

    1. Harvard
    2. Quinnipiac
    3. Cornell
    4. Yale
    5. RPI
    6. Union
    7. Clarkson
    8. SLU
    9. Princeton
    10. Dartmouth
    11. Colgate
    12. Brown


    Jenny

    1. Harvard
    2. Quinnipiac
    3. Cornell
    4. Union
    5. RPI
    6. Clarkson
    7.Yale
    8. Princeton
    9. Dartmouth
    10.Colgate
    11. St. Lawrence
    12. Brown
    Take the shortest distance to the puck and arrive in ill humor

  2. #62
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    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

    1. Harvard
    2. Clarkson
    3. Quinnipiac
    4. RPI
    5. Union
    6. Cornell
    7. Yale
    8. Dartmouth
    9. St. Lawrence
    10. Princeton
    11. Colgate
    12. Brown

  3. #63
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    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

    Here are the final statistics for all human entries (not including the Random Number, Mr. Last Year, and the Fan Average; n=46):
    Code:
    Team       |  Mean±SD   | Median(Range) |
    -----------------------------------------
    Harvard    |  1.59±1.44 |   1   ( 1-10) |
    Quinnipiac |  2.59±1.24 |   2   ( 1- 6) |
    Clarkson   |  3.80±2.07 |   3   ( 1-12) |
    Cornell    |  3.83±1.27 |   4   ( 2- 7) |
    Princeton  |  5.91±1.98 |   5   ( 1-12) |
    Yale       |  6.57±1.63 |   7   ( 3-11) |
    Union      |  6.98±2.01 |   7   ( 3-12) |
    RPI        |  8.13±2.86 |   9   ( 1-12) |
    SLU        |  8.30±2.40 |   9   ( 1-12) |
    Dartmouth  |  9.48±1.95 |  10   ( 2-12) |
    Colgate    |  9.89±1.87 |  10   ( 3-12) |
    Brown      | 10.98±1.33 |  11.5 ( 7-12) |
    The most consensus around any given team was Quinnipiac, though Harvard received more votes for a single position (1st, 31) than any other team. RPI had the least consensus, evidenced with a very wide distribution and the fewest votes for its mode (10th, 8) of any team. As the saying goes, never bet for or against RPI!

    No team was picked to finish in every position, and no position had every team picked at least once.

    hockeyplayer1015's entry most closely matches the fan average (only flipping the positions of Harvard and Quinnipiac), while the RPI Standings Board is the most different (ColSkate65 and Rjm7272 hold that crown for those who actually post on the board). As I mentioned in a previous post, LTsatch and The Coaches made identical entries.

    Visualizations


    Data on the first graph represent the mean ± SD ranking of all human entries. The second shows the frequency with which each team was predicted for each position.
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  4. #64
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    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

    lugnut, TMI, you are way over my head. i was an English major, not a math major
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  5. #65
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    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

    Well we're five games in, and we have to fake a whole hell of a lot of tiebreakers to make a set of standings that even remotely makes sense, but that's what happens when half of the league has no games played and 2 more split their home and home (with even goal differential). sshablak has the early lead, and (I think I'll be saying this an awful lot) RPI Standings Board is bringing up the rear. So here are your basically meaningless initial standings:
    Code:
    Rk Post#           Contestant        ρ
     1    48             sshablak   0.5734
     2    23          Mike Hutter   0.5385
     3    60             TchrBill   0.5315
     4     3        Mr. Last Year   0.4895
          46        goldenbriggsy   0.4895
     6    16                BigAl   0.4825
     7     3            The Media   0.4615
           2                 TBRW   0.4615
          18              bothman   0.4615
    10    40             Dutchman   0.4545
    11    33              Rainman   0.4196
    12    53                johnk   0.3986
    13    30      Section5forLife   0.3846
          52              kdiff77   0.3846
    15    32               cudmud   0.3776
          59      TheValleyRaider   0.3776
    17     3          The Coaches   0.3636
           5               Kepler   0.3636
          22         techtodenver   0.3636
          41              LTsatch   0.3636
          54            BIG Green   0.3636
          61              JennyRN   0.3636
    23     9          IsThereADog   0.3601
    24    17        ecachawkeyfan   0.3566
          63        TheFanAverage   0.3566
    26    20            Muskieman   0.3497
          42           FireKnight   0.3497
          56     hockeyplayer1015   0.3497
    29    61            DrDemento   0.3427
    30    47           GoldenBear   0.3357
    31    21           alslammerz   0.3252
    32    28                 UFan   0.3077
    33    10           slumulva88   0.3007
    34    44           QUAlum2004   0.2867
    35    34             Saints#1   0.2727
          57                 1988   0.2727
    37    49           ColSkate65   0.2587
    38     8                miker   0.2308
    39    14           Go Puckman   0.2098
    40    31                 Turk   0.1818
          39              drshoen   0.1818
    42    62             jmhusker   0.1469
    43    58            red133883   0.1399
    44    11             lugnut92   0.0909
    45    26           FlagDUDE08   0.0699
          50              Rjm7272   0.0699
    47    15           Ralph Baer  -0.0140
    48     3    The Random Number  -0.5315
    49    25    RPIStandingsBoard  -0.7413
    Okay, so I mentioned arbitrary tiebreakers, and here they are. If we extend past those tiebreakers provided by the ECAC, I'll basically try and apply the same thought process to teams' overall records. So right now, I'm just comparing win percentages and games played. That doesn't even fly for Brown and Yale, so I ranked them by shot differential. None of this matters, no one is going to care what tiebreakers I used 127 games from now.

    Fun fact: Any time the scores here are negative, it means the prediction would be more accurate if it were reversed. So the RPI Standings Board would be #1 if it were literally backwards. But again, none of this matters, we're five games in.

    Finally, I want to ask if people prefer the [code] tags I use for the formatted table or if they like the old [pre] tags better? [code] is smaller and more compact, but you end up having to scroll to the bottom. Does anyone care?
    RPI Pep Band
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    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

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    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner Up

  6. #66
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    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

    I am the only actual entrant who is currently negative.

  7. #67
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    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

    Quote Originally Posted by Ralph Baer View Post
    I am the only actual entrant who is currently negative.
    But you keep a positive outlook!!
    Take the shortest distance to the puck and arrive in ill humor

  8. #68
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    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

    Whatever Lug is doing, and I have no understanding of the math involved, it must be correct since Jenny is, as usual, about 10-20 slots above me.
    Take the shortest distance to the puck and arrive in ill humor

  9. #69
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    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

    Quote Originally Posted by DrDemento View Post
    Whatever Lug is doing, and I have no understanding of the math involved, it must be correct since Jenny is, as usual, about 10-20 slots above me.
    It's actually pretty simple. The rankings this year will be identical to if I listed the scores the old way, but just scaled slightly differently. If you were to divide the old scores by 286 (i.e., multiply by 6/(n(n2-1)) ) and subtract the result from 1, you get the new scores. It's all just a way to limit the scores to a much smaller range.
    Last edited by lugnut92; 10-30-2017 at 04:17 PM. Reason: Typo
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2014-2015 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner Up

  10. #70
    Let's Go 'Tute! Ralph Baer's Avatar
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    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

    Quote Originally Posted by lugnut92 View Post
    It's actually pretty simple. The rankings this year will be identical to if I listed the scores the old way, but just scaled slightly differently. If you were to divide the old scores by 236 (i.e., multiply by 6/(n(n2-1)) ) and subtract the result from 1, you get the new scores. It's all just a way to limit the scores to a much smaller range.
    Is there something wrong with the formula, or am I confused? I think you said that three of the entrants aren't counted. I.e., n = 46. That doesn't give 1/236, but rather 1/16215.

  11. #71
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    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

    Quote Originally Posted by Ralph Baer View Post
    Is there something wrong with the formula, or am I confused? I think you said that three of the entrants aren't counted. I.e., n = 46. That doesn't give 1/236, but rather 1/16215.
    Oh sorry, the n is the number of ranks being compared (i.e., 12). I suppose reusing variables isn't very good practice.

    Also, it should be 286, not 236. That was a mistake on my part.
    Last edited by lugnut92; 10-30-2017 at 04:19 PM.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2014-2015 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner Up

  12. #72

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    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

    Quote Originally Posted by lugnut92 View Post
    Oh sorry, the n is the number of ranks being compared (i.e., 12). I suppose reusing variables isn't very good practice.

    Also, it should be 286, not 236. That was a mistake on my part.
    Thank you again for doing this; it's great!
    2016 USCHO POSER OF THE YEAR

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  13. #73

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    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

    Quote Originally Posted by lugnut92 View Post
    Finally, I want to ask if people prefer the [code] tags I use for the formatted table or if they like the old [pre] tags better? [code] is smaller and more compact, but you end up having to scroll to the bottom. Does anyone care?
    I like the code tags better than the pre tags, personally.

    I use them myself and wish there was a way of overwriting the title (code or pre) with custom text (e.g., a caption). Is there a way to do that?
    2016 USCHO POSER OF THE YEAR

    "The strength and power of despotism consists wholly in the fear of resistance." -- Thomas Paine

    Cornell University
    NCAA Champion 1967, 1970
    ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
    Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014

  14. #74
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    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

    Quote Originally Posted by Kepler View Post
    I like the code tags better than the pre tags, personally.

    I use them myself and wish there was a way of overwriting the title (code or pre) with custom text (e.g., a caption). Is there a way to do that?
    I don't think so. I've always wanted to do it.

    [code="This doesn't work"]
    Nope
    [/code]


    Nope
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2014-2015 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner Up

  15. #75
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    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

    Thanks for taking over the contest this year. I just did not have the time or energy to do this again (it is tough getting old). Good luck to all the prognosticators and may the luckiest one win .
    Fan of CLARKSON: 2014 & 2017 NC$$ WOMEN'S DIV 1 HOCKEY NATIONAL CHAMPIONS
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  16. #76
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    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

    Well, no one is doing particularly well after 17 games. It doesn't help that Quinnipiac is in last and Dartmouth is sitting in the top 4, but I imagine those small errors will be rectified soon enough. Anyway, goldenbriggsy has jumped up a few spots to take over the top spot, while the RPI Standings Board has a pretty tight grip on the bottom spot already (FlagDUDE08 holds that honor for real posters).

    Here are your new standings:
    Code:
    Rk Post#           Contestant        ρ
     1    46        goldenbriggsy   0.4615
     2    48             sshablak   0.3497
     3    20            Muskieman   0.3287
     4    21           alslammerz   0.3182
     5    54            BIG Green   0.2937
     6     3        Mr. Last Year   0.2657
     7    60             TchrBill   0.2238
     8    16                BigAl   0.2168
     9    58            red133883   0.2098
          62             jmhusker   0.2098
    11    30      Section5forLife   0.1608
          33              Rainman   0.1608
    13    17        ecachawkeyfan   0.1469
    14    15           Ralph Baer   0.1329
    15    18              bothman   0.1259
          56     hockeyplayer1015   0.1259
    17     2                 TBRW   0.1189
          49           ColSkate65   0.1189
    19    61              JennyRN   0.0839
    20    22         techtodenver   0.0699
    21     3          The Coaches   0.0629
           8                miker   0.0629
          23          Mike Hutter   0.0629
          41              LTsatch   0.0629
          42           FireKnight   0.0629
    26     5               Kepler   0.0559
          63        TheFanAverage   0.0559
    28     3            The Media   0.0420
    29    14           Go Puckman   0.0350
    30    47           GoldenBear   0.0210
    31    53                johnk   0.0140
    32     9          IsThereADog   0.0035
    33    28                 UFan  -0.0210
    34    44           QUAlum2004  -0.0280
    35    10           slumulva88  -0.0350
    36    31                 Turk  -0.0490
          34             Saints#1  -0.0490
    38    57                 1988  -0.0629
    39    40             Dutchman  -0.0699
          61            DrDemento  -0.0699
    41    59      TheValleyRaider  -0.0769
    42    52              kdiff77  -0.0839
    43    39              drshoen  -0.1049
    44    50              Rjm7272  -0.1399
    45    32               cudmud  -0.2028
    46    11             lugnut92  -0.2238
    47    26           FlagDUDE08  -0.4056
    48     3    The Random Number  -0.4196
    49    25    RPIStandingsBoard  -0.6643
    Pretty much every current tie in the ECAC table was broken by games played, with only one tie falling to H2H points.
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2014-2015 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner Up

  17. #77
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    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

    For at least the purposes of first and last place, do we know what the classic-style scores are so we can keep tabs on how we're doing when compared to last year?
    It was an honor to present your colors, RPI. Let's Go 'TUTE!
    May 14th, 2011, 11:00 PM ET: 2147483647

    Quote Originally Posted by Rover View Post
    I'm not happy about it either, but Flag is correct (cue the Twilight Zone music!).
    Quote Originally Posted by French Rage View Post
    Ahh crap I agree exactly with what FlagDude said.
    Quote Originally Posted by jericho on rpitv's chat
    I never thought I would say this, but you are right.
    Quote Originally Posted by Handyman View Post
    And yet, even if Flaggy is complete tinfoil hat, every day it looks closer and closer to the truth.
    Quote Originally Posted by burd View Post
    So flaggy: you win.

  18. #78
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    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

    Quote Originally Posted by FlagDUDE08 View Post
    For at least the purposes of first and last place, do we know what the classic-style scores are so we can keep tabs on how we're doing when compared to last year?
    I'll start reporting it as "Raw".
    Code:
    Rk Post#           Contestant  Raw        ρ
     1    46        goldenbriggsy  154   0.4615
     2    48             sshablak  186   0.3497
     3    20            Muskieman  192   0.3287
     4    21           alslammerz  195   0.3182
     5    54            BIG Green  202   0.2937
     6     3        Mr. Last Year  210   0.2657
     7    60             TchrBill  222   0.2238
     8    16                BigAl  224   0.2168
     9    58            red133883  226   0.2098
    10    62             jmhusker  226   0.2098
    11    30      Section5forLife  240   0.1608
          33              Rainman  240   0.1608
    13    17        ecachawkeyfan  244   0.1469
    14    15           Ralph Baer  248   0.1329
    15    18              bothman  250   0.1259
          56     hockeyplayer1015  250   0.1259
    17     2                 TBRW  252   0.1189
          49           ColSkate65  252   0.1189
    19    61              JennyRN  262   0.0839
    20    22         techtodenver  266   0.0699
    21     3          The Coaches  268   0.0629
           8                miker  268   0.0629
          23          Mike Hutter  268   0.0629
          41              LTsatch  268   0.0629
          42           FireKnight  268   0.0629
    26     5               Kepler  270   0.0559
          63        TheFanAverage  270   0.0559
    28     3            The Media  274   0.0420
    29    14           Go Puckman  276   0.0350
    30    47           GoldenBear  280   0.0210
    31    53                johnk  282   0.0140
    32     9          IsThereADog  285   0.0035
    33    28                 UFan  292  -0.0210
    34    44           QUAlum2004  294  -0.0280
    35    10           slumulva88  296  -0.0350
    36    31                 Turk  300  -0.0490
          34             Saints#1  300  -0.0490
    38    57                 1988  304  -0.0629
    39    40             Dutchman  306  -0.0699
          61            DrDemento  306  -0.0699
    41    59      TheValleyRaider  308  -0.0769
    42    52              kdiff77  310  -0.0839
    43    39              drshoen  316  -0.1049
    44    50              Rjm7272  326  -0.1399
    45    32               cudmud  344  -0.2028
    46    11             lugnut92  350  -0.2238
    47    26           FlagDUDE08  402  -0.4056
    48     3    The Random Number  406  -0.4196
    49    25    RPIStandingsBoard  476  -0.6643
    If the season ended today, these would be the worst winning and losing scores of all time.
    RPI Pep Band
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    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

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  19. #79
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    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

    Quote Originally Posted by lugnut92 View Post
    I'll start reporting it as "Raw".

    If the season ended today, these would be the worst winning and losing scores of all time.
    I'm almost sorry I asked.
    It was an honor to present your colors, RPI. Let's Go 'TUTE!
    May 14th, 2011, 11:00 PM ET: 2147483647

    Quote Originally Posted by Rover View Post
    I'm not happy about it either, but Flag is correct (cue the Twilight Zone music!).
    Quote Originally Posted by French Rage View Post
    Ahh crap I agree exactly with what FlagDude said.
    Quote Originally Posted by jericho on rpitv's chat
    I never thought I would say this, but you are right.
    Quote Originally Posted by Handyman View Post
    And yet, even if Flaggy is complete tinfoil hat, every day it looks closer and closer to the truth.
    Quote Originally Posted by burd View Post
    So flaggy: you win.

  20. #80
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    Re: ECAC Pick the Standings 2017-18

    Not much changing right now in the standings. goldenbriggsy maintains his hold on first overall, improving slightly over his position last week. Behind him, alslammerz leapfrogged sshablak to take second. Elsewhere in the standings, slumulva88 has a score of exactly 0, meaning that their prediction has exactly no correlation with the real standings. Down at the bottom, RPIStandingsBoard is really bad and FlagDUDE08 is too.

    Here are your new standings:
    Code:
    Rk Post#         Contestant  Raw        ρ
     1    46      goldenbriggsy  146   0.4895
     2    21         alslammerz  167   0.4161
     3    48           sshablak  186   0.3497
     4    20          Muskieman  194   0.3217
     5     3      Mr. Last Year  210   0.2657
     6    49         ColSkate65  216   0.2448
     7    60           TchrBill  218   0.2378
     8     2               TBRW  220   0.2308
          54          BIG Green  220   0.2308
    10    33            Rainman  226   0.2098
    11     5             Kepler  232   0.1888
    12    16              BigAl  234   0.1818
          58          red133883  234   0.1818
    14    22       techtodenver  236   0.1748
          30    Section5forLife  236   0.1748
          61            JennyRN  236   0.1748
    17    56   hockeyplayer1015  242   0.1538
          62           jmhusker  242   0.1538
    19    18            bothman  244   0.1469
    20     8              miker  248   0.1329
          17      ecachawkeyfan  248   0.1329
    22    15         Ralph Baer  250   0.1259
    23    47         GoldenBear  256   0.1049
          53              johnk  256   0.1049
    25    28               UFan  258   0.0979
    26    63      TheFanAverage  262   0.0839
    27     3        The Coaches  264   0.0769
          41            LTsatch  264   0.0769
    29    42         FireKnight  266   0.0699
    30    23        Mike Hutter  268   0.0629
    31     3          The Media  274   0.0420
          14         Go Puckman  274   0.0420
          40           Dutchman  274   0.0420
    34    31               Turk  280   0.0210
    35    61          DrDemento  284   0.0070
    36    10         slumulva88  286   0.0000
    37    34           Saints#1  290  -0.0140
          52            kdiff77  290  -0.0140
    39    44         QUAlum2004  292  -0.0210
           9        IsThereADog  293  -0.0245
    41    57               1988  296  -0.0350
    42    32             cudmud  300  -0.0490
    43    11           lugnut92  306  -0.0699
    44    59    TheValleyRaider  308  -0.0769
    45    39            drshoen  320  -0.1189
    46    50            Rjm7272  342  -0.1958
    47     3  The Random Number  358  -0.2517
    48    26         FlagDUDE08  388  -0.3566
    49    25  RPIStandingsBoard  464  -0.6224
    RPI Pep Band
    GO GO GO YOU RED RED RED!!! and I guess Yale?
    🎶🎺🎺🎺 LET'S GO BLUES!

    2014-2015 ECAC Pick the Standings – Last Place
    2013-2016 RPI Pick to Click – Back-to-Back-to-Back Runner Up

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