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WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

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  • Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    Boy, this thing is one big, muddled mess: http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2018/02...week-17-below/

    GFM
    Geof F. Morris
    UAH BSE MAE 2002
    UAHHockey.com

    Comment


    • Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

      Like Geof said, but with fancier numbers, it is still a mess!

      1 Northern Michigan 58 26 (home ice, 1-3)
      2 Minnesota State 57 24 (home ice, 1-3)
      3 Bowling Green 49 24 (home ice, 1-4)
      4 Bemidji State 42 24 (playoffs, 3-5)
      5 Michigan Tech 40 26 (playoffs, 4-7)
      6 Alabama Huntsville 30 26 (6-9)
      7 Alaska 29 24 (5-9)
      8 Ferris State 28 24 (5-9)
      9 Lake Superior State 27 26 (6-9)
      10 Alaska Anchorage 12 24 (out, 10)

      Conference Schedule remaining:

      Mankato: Ferris, Bemidji
      Bowling Green: at Anchorage, at Huntsville
      Northern: home and home with Tech
      Bemidji: Alaska, at Mankato
      Michigan Tech: home and home with Northern
      Huntsville: Bowling Green
      Alaska: at Bemidji, Anchorage
      Ferris: at Mankato, Lake State
      Lake State: at Ferris
      Anchorage: Bowling Green, at Alaska
      Last edited by beaverhockeyfan; 02-12-2018, 04:13 PM.
      Millsy

      NCAA TOURNAMENT 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010!
      FROZEN FOUR 2009!


      "Like" The BeaverPond's Facebook Page

      BEMIDJI STATE BEAVERS!
      NAIA National Champs: 1968, '69, '70, '71, '73, '79, '80
      NCAA D-III National Champs: 1986
      NCAA D-II National Champs: 1984, '93, '94, '95, '97
      NCAA D-I National Champs: 20??
      Perfect 31-0 in 1983-84
      Holders of an NCAA Mens Record 43 straight wins (Nov. 8, 1983-Jan. 1, 1985)

      Comment


      • Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

        I did a best-worst for all of the teams: http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2018/02...ch-best-worst/

        Of note: MTU finishes in sixth if they lose out and FSU & UAF win out.

        MSU-NMU-BGSU: All can finish 1-2-3
        BSU: 4-5
        MTU: 4-5-6
        UAF: 5-6-7-8-9
        FSU: 5-6-7-8-9
        UAH: 6-7-8-9
        LSSU: 6-7-8-9

        GFM
        Geof F. Morris
        UAH BSE MAE 2002
        UAHHockey.com

        Comment


        • Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

          Originally posted by gfmorris View Post
          I did a best-worst for all of the teams: http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2018/02...ch-best-worst/

          Of note: MTU finishes in sixth if they lose out and FSU & UAF win out.

          MSU-NMU-BGSU: All can finish 1-2-3
          BSU: 4-5
          MTU: 4-5-6
          UAF: 5-6-7-8-9
          FSU: 5-6-7-8-9
          UAH: 6-7-8-9
          LSSU: 6-7-8-9

          GFM
          Thanks Geof, I now see my error with how I got Tech down to seventh.....

          On another note, Bemidji State getting a lot of mention on the Olympic broadcast of the Korea/Czech Republic game. Former Beaver goaltender Matt Dalton is the starting goalie for the Korean team. He is keeping the Koreans in it as they are down 2-1 in the third.

          EDIT: Czech Republic 2, Korea 1, Final

          http://www.bemidjipioneer.com/sports...t-dalton-korea
          Last edited by beaverhockeyfan; 02-15-2018, 08:31 AM.
          Millsy

          NCAA TOURNAMENT 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010!
          FROZEN FOUR 2009!


          "Like" The BeaverPond's Facebook Page

          BEMIDJI STATE BEAVERS!
          NAIA National Champs: 1968, '69, '70, '71, '73, '79, '80
          NCAA D-III National Champs: 1986
          NCAA D-II National Champs: 1984, '93, '94, '95, '97
          NCAA D-I National Champs: 20??
          Perfect 31-0 in 1983-84
          Holders of an NCAA Mens Record 43 straight wins (Nov. 8, 1983-Jan. 1, 1985)

          Comment


          • Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

            BSU can finish in third as well.
            Co-Founder/Editor of BGSUHockey.com

            Comment


            • Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

              Originally posted by BGDrew View Post
              BSU can finish in third as well.
              so BGSU must be able to finish 4th?
              Michigan Tech Legend, Founder of Mitch's Misfits, Co-Founder of Tech Hockey Guide, and Creator/Host of the Chasing MacNaughton Podcast covering MTU Hockey and the WCHA.

              Sports Allegiance: NFL: GB MLB: MIL NHL: MIN CB: UW CF: UW CH: MTU FIFA: USA MLS: MIN EPL: Everton

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              • Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

                So, the Geof-Millsy hybrid model shows:

                Northern 1-3
                Mankato 1-3
                Bowling Green 1-4
                Bemidji 3-5
                Tech 4-6
                Fairbanks 5-9
                Ferris 5-9
                Huntsville 6-9
                Lake State 6-9
                UAA 10
                Millsy

                NCAA TOURNAMENT 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010!
                FROZEN FOUR 2009!


                "Like" The BeaverPond's Facebook Page

                BEMIDJI STATE BEAVERS!
                NAIA National Champs: 1968, '69, '70, '71, '73, '79, '80
                NCAA D-III National Champs: 1986
                NCAA D-II National Champs: 1984, '93, '94, '95, '97
                NCAA D-I National Champs: 20??
                Perfect 31-0 in 1983-84
                Holders of an NCAA Mens Record 43 straight wins (Nov. 8, 1983-Jan. 1, 1985)

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Shirtless Guy View Post
                  so BGSU must be able to finish 4th?
                  Correct. BSU is seven points behind BG and both teams have four games left to play. That means there’s 12 WCHA points available for the Beavers to try and catch up if the Falcons falter.
                  Co-Founder/Editor of BGSUHockey.com

                  Comment


                  • Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

                    1 Northern Michigan 58 26 (home ice, 1-3)
                    2 Minnesota State 57 24 (home ice, 1-3)
                    3 Bowling Green 52 25 (home ice, 1-4)
                    4 Bemidji State 44 25 (playoffs, 3-5)
                    5 Michigan Tech 40 26 (playoffs, 4-6)
                    6 Alabama Huntsville 30 26 (6-9)
                    7 Alaska 30 25 (6-9)
                    8 Ferris State 28 24 (5-9)
                    9 Lake Superior State 27 26 (6-9)
                    10 Alaska Anchorage 12 25 (out, 10)
                    Millsy

                    NCAA TOURNAMENT 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010!
                    FROZEN FOUR 2009!


                    "Like" The BeaverPond's Facebook Page

                    BEMIDJI STATE BEAVERS!
                    NAIA National Champs: 1968, '69, '70, '71, '73, '79, '80
                    NCAA D-III National Champs: 1986
                    NCAA D-II National Champs: 1984, '93, '94, '95, '97
                    NCAA D-I National Champs: 20??
                    Perfect 31-0 in 1983-84
                    Holders of an NCAA Mens Record 43 straight wins (Nov. 8, 1983-Jan. 1, 1985)

                    Comment


                    • Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

                      Yep, I screwed up the BSU maximum. I know how I did it, but I don't know why I got it wrong...

                      GFM
                      Geof F. Morris
                      UAH BSE MAE 2002
                      UAHHockey.com

                      Comment


                      • Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

                        The Beavers lock up home ice with a 2-1 victory over Alaska tonight.
                        Millsy

                        NCAA TOURNAMENT 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010!
                        FROZEN FOUR 2009!


                        "Like" The BeaverPond's Facebook Page

                        BEMIDJI STATE BEAVERS!
                        NAIA National Champs: 1968, '69, '70, '71, '73, '79, '80
                        NCAA D-III National Champs: 1986
                        NCAA D-II National Champs: 1984, '93, '94, '95, '97
                        NCAA D-I National Champs: 20??
                        Perfect 31-0 in 1983-84
                        Holders of an NCAA Mens Record 43 straight wins (Nov. 8, 1983-Jan. 1, 1985)

                        Comment


                        • Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

                          Originally posted by beaverhockeyfan View Post
                          The Beavers lock up home ice with a 2-1 victory over Alaska tonight.
                          And they will host Michigan Tech in the first round.

                          GFM
                          Geof F. Morris
                          UAH BSE MAE 2002
                          UAHHockey.com

                          Comment


                          • Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

                            BELOW ratings after the penultimate week: http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2018/02...below-week-18/

                            Teasing out the Minnesota State - Northern Michigan - Bowling Green tiebreakers: http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2018/02...bowling-green/

                            https://***********/wchaplayoffs/sta...66864522833920

                            https://***********/wchaplayoffs/sta...67462441795590

                            UAH and UAF finishing this last week 9-1-1-15 is a nightmare scenario for making the tiebreakers go easily.

                            GFM
                            Geof F. Morris
                            UAH BSE MAE 2002
                            UAHHockey.com

                            Comment


                            • Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

                              So given this (admittedly unlikely) scenario, what happens to seeding and who gets in?

                              FSU loses then wins in the shootout/3x3
                              BGSU sweeps UAH
                              UAA sweeps Fairbanks

                              LSSU finishes 6th with 31 points, but behind that:

                              UAH 9-16-2-1
                              UAF 9-16-2-1
                              FSU 9-16-2-1

                              Wow.

                              Comment


                              • Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

                                Originally posted by John J. MacInnes View Post
                                So given this (admittedly unlikely) scenario, what happens to seeding and who gets in?

                                FSU loses then wins in the shootout/3x3
                                BGSU sweeps UAH
                                UAA sweeps Fairbanks

                                LSSU finishes 6th with 31 points, but behind that:

                                UAH 9-16-2-1
                                UAF 9-16-2-1
                                FSU 9-16-2-1

                                Wow.
                                From how I understand the WCHA tiebreaker, www.wcha.com/men/standings.php you have to go down to Section E where records against the highest ranked WCHA team.

                                If the top of the standings stays the same, I come up with:
                                #7=UAF (best record vs MSUM)
                                #8=UAH (better record vs NMU)


                                Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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