WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

[bigblue_dl]

Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

Yeah, that takes out a long bus ride for most of the schools and makes it a flight for pretty much everyone (even UAH flies to the Colorado schools).

GFM

Basically, what I'm saying is, Denver is completely exchangeable for any league, as long as they can replace them with a reasonably comparable team from a W/L standpoint. And in a league like NCHC, they could lose a Denver and absorb it pretty easily, since they have enough other high-end teams, their collective PWRs probably wouldn't even see a blip.

[gfmorris]

Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

Basically, what I'm saying is, Denver is completely exchangeable for any league, as long as they can replace them with a reasonably comparable team from a W/L standpoint. And in a league like NCHC, they could lose a Denver and absorb it pretty easily, since they have enough other high-end teams, their collective PWRs probably wouldn't even see a blip.

Well, your first assertion supports the second. I don't dispute that, but how many Denver-caliber programs are out there that fit the Nacho's footprint while not being in a lesser conference, save Mankato? I don't think that really exists.

My comment on travel is why it would potentially be a hard sell for WCHA teams.

I think that the open question for Division I hockey — and this obviously affects our league — is whether it's going to continue to expand only with moneyed programs or if other schools will join by bootstrapping. The latter definitely gets harder every year. If the only way into D-I is for a donor to drop high eight figures into a program (why didn't I play the lottery last week?!), I wonder if the smaller schools that are playing up will end up dropping the sport.

Of course, it's now April and time to play wish-casting again. At least I'm five years removed from ten years of "will we get into the CCHA / will we survive independence / will the nWCHA pick us up?" thinking.

GFM

[purpleinnebraska]

Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

I think that the open question for Division I hockey — and this obviously affects our league — is whether it's going to continue to expand only with moneyed programs or if other schools will join by bootstrapping. The latter definitely gets harder every year. If the only way into D-I is for a donor to drop high eight figures into a program (why didn't I play the lottery last week?!), I wonder if the smaller schools that are playing up will end up dropping the sport.


GFM

Good question. For all the bashing of Denver and their horrible fanbase, the Pioneers were 7th in attendance this year. What does that say about the sustainability of ANY programs, outside NoDak?

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

Good question. For all the bashing of Denver and their horrible fanbase, the Pioneers were 7th in attendance this year. What does that say about the sustainability of ANY programs, outside NoDak?

I think most of the bashing is the lack of travelling fans and the actual impact on the Denver market. They do well at home, although in every game I've ever attended there, it wasn't exactly full, but to be fair, they were MTU games.

[Squarebanks]

Good question. For all the bashing of Denver and their horrible fanbase, the Pioneers were 7th in attendance this year. What does that say about the sustainability of ANY programs, outside NoDak?

Nationally, or in their conference?

[manurespreader]

Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

Nationally, or in their conference?

I bet Denver sells as many tickets on a percentage basis as most of the WCHA or better. But, and it's a big but, their fans buy tickets and then no show a lot. They have almost no traveling fans or fan support at away games.
I'd also say that Geoff's point is well made. We have a few programs that need our support to make it. Let's find a way to do that, then lets find some higher quality players. I'm not doom and gloom at all, but I do see losing Mankato as not a good thing for the league as a whole.
I figure we have two or maybe three years to get our weaker teams up to speed. UAH is not weak any longer. If they can do it, the others can as well.

[bigblue_dl]

Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

I think most of the bashing is the lack of travelling fans and the actual impact on the Denver market. They do well at home, although in every game I've ever attended there, it wasn't exactly full, but to be fair, they were MTU games.

And it was an environment more sterile than Mariucci for a Sunday afternoon game.

[JohnsonsJerseys]

Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

For all the bashing of Denver and their horrible fanbase, the Pioneers were 7th in attendance this year.

My point isn't the number of fans they draw, but rather the percentage of their local population, and what they should draw if they were really as popular as they would like to believe. Drawing 6,000 fans per game would be awesome fan support for DU... if their campus was in a city of 50,000 people.

What shows better fan support? DU drawing less than 6,000 fans per game out of local population of 1,000,000+ or some place like Bemidji who draws just shy of 3,000 fans from a population of under 15,000? I would say the later. New Hampshire drew 4,400 per game this season and there is a good chance the population of the entire state of NH isn't as large as the population of the Denver metro area. I'll bet if you ranked the team using attendance as a percentage of local population, DU would be in the bottom 10, maybe even dead last depending on how you defined "local".

Ryan

[MTUHuskies]

Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

I'll bet if you ranked the team using attendance as a percentage of local population, DU would be in the bottom 10, maybe even dead last depending on how you defined "local".

Ryan

I've always thought this would be a good reference point - to rank attendance per capita of the market area. The only question is what defines the market area? For MTU I would guess it is roughly from Calumet to L'Anse? NMU would be Marquette County and possibly out to Munising and down to Escanaba? Other than those two schools, I'm not really familiar with the areas around the other WCHA campuses. I'd be interested to see the results if anyone out there has the time to research it.

[gfmorris]

Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

My point isn't the number of fans they draw, but rather the percentage of their local population, and what they should draw if they were really as popular as they would like to believe. Drawing 6,000 fans per game would be awesome fan support for DU... if their campus was in a city of 50,000 people.

What shows better fan support? DU drawing less than 6,000 fans per game out of local population of 1,000,000+ or some place like Bemidji who draws just shy of 3,000 fans from a population of under 15,000? I would say the later. New Hampshire drew 4,400 per game this season and there is a good chance the population of the entire state of NH isn't as large as the population of the Denver metro area. I'll bet if you ranked the team using attendance as a percentage of local population, DU would be in the bottom 10, maybe even dead last depending on how you defined "local".

Is that really the right framing for it? By that mark, a lot of Eastern schools fall far short of that mark as well. I think that it's more relevant to index it to the number of active alumni (graduation date <25 years) living within 100 miles of campus. To be sure, every college program has the townies that help make it go, but those hold higher sway in small markets because of the fact that there's only so much disposable income. As market size increases, you end up needing stronger ties than just "it's the only thing going".

If your argument is to hold true, UAH would do well with Huntsville Havoc fans and vice versa. I've been to one SPHL game, and that was one too many.

GFM

[bigblue_dl]

Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

Is that really the right framing for it? By that mark, a lot of Eastern schools fall far short of that mark as well. I think that it's more relevant to index it to the number of active alumni (graduation date <25 years) living within 100 miles of campus. To be sure, every college program has the townies that help make it go, but those hold higher sway in small markets because of the fact that there's only so much disposable income. As market size increases, you end up needing stronger ties than just "it's the only thing going".

If your argument is to hold true, UAH would do well with Huntsville Havoc fans and vice versa. I've been to one SPHL game, and that was one too many.

GFM

If you used the active alumni within a certain distance of campus, how would that work for Tech? I would guess that the percentage of attendance that is alumni, is very small. There are no jobs for Tech alumni anywhere near campus, so Tech alumni very rarely stay in or around Houghton after graduation. A big percentage of the attendance are locals, that are Tech fans because the father, and their grandfather were also Tech fans, because Tech hockey games are the biggest sporting event within 4 hours.

[beaverhockeyfan]

I've always thought this would be a good reference point - to rank attendance per capita of the market area. The only question is what defines the market area? For MTU I would guess it is roughly from Calumet to L'Anse? NMU would be Marquette County and possibly out to Munising and down to Escanaba? Other than those two schools, I'm not really familiar with the areas around the other WCHA campuses. I'd be interested to see the results if anyone out there has the time to research it.

There was a website out there that has this information. The market area for Bemidji is something around 40,000-45000 people. I know I had looked all these up and may even have them on a spreadsheet somewhere when either Bemidji was trying to get into the WCHA, or the new WCHA was forming.

[gfmorris]

Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

If you used the active alumni within a certain distance of campus, how would that work for Tech? I would guess that the percentage of attendance that is alumni, is very small. There are no jobs for Tech alumni anywhere near campus, so Tech alumni very rarely stay in or around Houghton after graduation. A big percentage of the attendance are locals, that are Tech fans because the father, and their grandfather were also Tech fans, because Tech hockey games are the biggest sporting event within 4 hours.

My suggestion certainly isn't the only or best way to describe strong ties. I'm certainly colored by the fact that a lot of our alumni stay here because of the job market in Huntsville.

GFM

[oldish husky]

Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

I'm not convinced that ASU is a long-term drag on any conference. I think that lacking a conference hurts them, and the facilities issue hurts them. If they can address those two things, they can probably recruit with anyone. Even if only 10% of college recruits want a warm climate in a larger city, all 10% go to Phoenix. Who else is there that competes in that context? The other 59 schools split the 90%. I say within 3 years of getting a rink and joining a conference (big unknowns at this point), ASU becomes a perennial contender. If I were the WCHA or NCHC, I'd get them in. They wouldn't be the only conference with an odd number of teams. Computers make scheduling easy.

[MavHockey14]

I'm not convinced that ASU is a long-term drag on any conference. I think that lacking a conference hurts them, and the facilities issue hurts them. If they can address those two things, they can probably recruit with anyone. Even if only 10% of college recruits want a warm climate in a larger city, all 10% go to Phoenix. Who else is there that competes in that context? The other 59 schools split the 90%. I say within 3 years of getting a rink and joining a conference (big unknowns at this point), ASU becomes a perennial contender. If I were the WCHA or NCHC, I'd get them in. They wouldn't be the only conference with an odd number of teams. Computers make scheduling easy.

The key is getting the recruits on campus. You get a kid from Canada, Northern MN, etc. down on a visit, where the dorms are littered with gorgeous women laying by the pool, etc. and then also provide an opportunity to play in the NCHC, for example? Uh yeah, where does my 18 year old self sign up?