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Thread: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

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    Quote Originally Posted by manurespreader View Post
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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    Quarterfinals predictions: http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2018/03...s-predictions/

    Predictably, the likeliest outcomes are 1-2-3-4 and 1-2-3-5. I like that 1-3-4-7 one, though! (I'd prefer 3-5-7-8 myself, because that would mean avoiding Minnesota State and that Bemidji State gets knocked out in the first round!)

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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    So is 1-2-3-5 23.565% or 6.173%

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    Quote Originally Posted by gfmorris View Post
    Quarterfinals predictions: http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2018/03...s-predictions/

    Predictably, the likeliest outcomes are 1-2-3-4 and 1-2-3-5. I like that 1-3-4-7 one, though! (I'd prefer 3-5-7-8 myself, because that would mean avoiding Minnesota State and that Bemidji State gets knocked out in the first round!)

    GFM
    I think 1-2-3 is unfortunately almost a foregone conclusion when you look at the disparity between the top and bottom of the conference.

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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    MMU is starting fast. 5:35 in and its 3-0 on 4 shots.

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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    Quote Originally Posted by MTUHuskies View Post
    MMU is starting fast. 5:35 in and its 3-0 on 4 shots.
    According to USCHO's super accurate scores app, it's now NMU 4-0 at the START of the 1st period. I didn't know the home team got spotted four goals before the game started.
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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    Quote Originally Posted by JohnsonsJerseys View Post
    According to USCHO's super accurate scores app, it's now NMU 4-0 at the START of the 1st period. I didn't know the home team got spotted four goals before the game started.
    Ryan
    Earlier this year I went to the WMU-FSU game. Before it started my CHN app said Ferris was up 3-2. That ended up being the final score. Kinda freaked me out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnsonsJerseys View Post
    According to USCHO's super accurate scores app, it's now NMU 4-0 at the START of the 1st period. I didn't know the home team got spotted four goals before the game started.
    Ryan
    This afternoon it had Wisconsin leading Michigan 3-2 with 0:03 left in the 3rd period.

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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    Quote Originally Posted by MTUHuskies View Post
    So is 1-2-3-5 23.565% or 6.173%
    It's the former. The second one was 1-3-5-7, and I've fixed that.

    Quote Originally Posted by Squarebanks View Post
    I think 1-2-3 is unfortunately almost a foregone conclusion when you look at the disparity between the top and bottom of the conference.
    You're probably right! I was thinking/hoping that something like 1-3-5-7 might actually happen (I expect Tech to win, and that's just a hunch), but UAH ... ugh, well, that was embarrassing, and so was the game.

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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    Quote Originally Posted by JohnsonsJerseys View Post
    According to USCHO's super accurate scores app, it's now NMU 4-0 at the START of the 1st period. I didn't know the home team got spotted four goals before the game started.
    Ryan
    It just felt that way.
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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    How long have on ice officials had the ability to review penalties during a game?

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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    Quote Originally Posted by pdt1081 View Post
    How long have on ice officials had the ability to review penalties during a game?
    I believe they can only look at contact to the head, nothing else. I think it started last year, but am not 100% sure on that.
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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    I think they can look to see if itís a major or minor in the playoffs.

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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    What are the chances of the WCHA having at least two teams in the NCAA tournament?
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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    Quote Originally Posted by LSSULaker889294 View Post
    What are the chances of the WCHA having at least two teams in the NCAA tournament?
    what are the odds of MSU losing 2 of 3 to MTU or in a one-off championship game in Mankato?
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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    According to CHN there is a 37% chance that MSU doesn't win the Sauer Trophy. Plus there is an 11% chance that BGSU gets in without winning the tournament and a 2% chance NMU gets in without winning the tournament so about 50% chance of 2 teams from the WCHA getting in right now... They probably lost about 10% because of NMU losing a game to UAH last weekend.
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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    Quote Originally Posted by Shirtless Guy View Post
    According to CHN there is a 37% chance that MSU doesn't win the Sauer Trophy. Plus there is an 11% chance that BGSU gets in without winning the tournament and a 2% chance NMU gets in without winning the tournament so about 50% chance of 2 teams from the WCHA getting in right now... They probably lost about 10% because of NMU losing a game to UAH last weekend.
    I'd love to know the underpinnings of their model.

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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    Quote Originally Posted by LSSULaker889294 View Post
    What are the chances of the WCHA having at least two teams in the NCAA tournament?
    One of the problems is that Minnesota can't lose anymore! Using the Dahl PWR Calculator, neither BGSU nor NMU can catch the Gophers this weekend, even with a sweep. UNO and NoDak are immediately ahead of BGSU, but they play each other this weekend, so one of those teams is going to get 2 wins, and the other might get one. The best result I could get involves Providence getting swept by Maine, in which case I got BGSU up to 13.

    So, to answer your question, we can get two, but by far the most likely way that happens is we get Kato and the winner of the Jeff Sauer trophy.

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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    Quote Originally Posted by gfmorris View Post
    I'd love to know the underpinnings of their model.

    GFM
    They rely on KRACH ratings, plus 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations. It has a bit of a smell to it. With 4 teams left in it, I don't see how anyone can be a 63% favorite. Cornell is 52%, SCSU 45%, Notre Dame 37%, Mercyhurst 30%, and BC 22%. Those all look more reasonable.

    Considering we split with both NMU and BGSU, including splits in Mankato, 63% seems large.
    Last edited by purpleinnebraska; 03-05-2018 at 02:31 PM.

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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    Quote Originally Posted by purpleinnebraska View Post
    They rely on KRACH ratings, plus 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations
    KRACH is retrodictive and a bit of a pain to calculate. Elo is something that you can do pretty cleanly.

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