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Thread: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

  1. #481
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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    Boy, this thing is one big, muddled mess: http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2018/02...week-17-below/

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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    Like Geof said, but with fancier numbers, it is still a mess!

    1 Northern Michigan 58 26 (home ice, 1-3)
    2 Minnesota State 57 24 (home ice, 1-3)
    3 Bowling Green 49 24 (home ice, 1-4)
    4 Bemidji State 42 24 (playoffs, 3-5)
    5 Michigan Tech 40 26 (playoffs, 4-7)
    6 Alabama Huntsville 30 26 (6-9)
    7 Alaska 29 24 (5-9)
    8 Ferris State 28 24 (5-9)
    9 Lake Superior State 27 26 (6-9)
    10 Alaska Anchorage 12 24 (out, 10)

    Conference Schedule remaining:

    Mankato: Ferris, Bemidji
    Bowling Green: at Anchorage, at Huntsville
    Northern: home and home with Tech
    Bemidji: Alaska, at Mankato
    Michigan Tech: home and home with Northern
    Huntsville: Bowling Green
    Alaska: at Bemidji, Anchorage
    Ferris: at Mankato, Lake State
    Lake State: at Ferris
    Anchorage: Bowling Green, at Alaska
    Last edited by beaverhockeyfan; 02-12-2018 at 05:13 PM.
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  3. #483
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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    I did a best-worst for all of the teams: http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2018/02...ch-best-worst/

    Of note: MTU finishes in sixth if they lose out and FSU & UAF win out.

    MSU-NMU-BGSU: All can finish 1-2-3
    BSU: 4-5
    MTU: 4-5-6
    UAF: 5-6-7-8-9
    FSU: 5-6-7-8-9
    UAH: 6-7-8-9
    LSSU: 6-7-8-9

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  4. #484
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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    Quote Originally Posted by gfmorris View Post
    I did a best-worst for all of the teams: http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2018/02...ch-best-worst/

    Of note: MTU finishes in sixth if they lose out and FSU & UAF win out.

    MSU-NMU-BGSU: All can finish 1-2-3
    BSU: 4-5
    MTU: 4-5-6
    UAF: 5-6-7-8-9
    FSU: 5-6-7-8-9
    UAH: 6-7-8-9
    LSSU: 6-7-8-9

    GFM
    Thanks Geof, I now see my error with how I got Tech down to seventh.....

    On another note, Bemidji State getting a lot of mention on the Olympic broadcast of the Korea/Czech Republic game. Former Beaver goaltender Matt Dalton is the starting goalie for the Korean team. He is keeping the Koreans in it as they are down 2-1 in the third.

    EDIT: Czech Republic 2, Korea 1, Final

    http://www.bemidjipioneer.com/sports...t-dalton-korea
    Last edited by beaverhockeyfan; 02-15-2018 at 09:31 AM.
    Millsy

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    NCAA D-I National Champs: 20??
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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    BSU can finish in third as well.

  6. #486
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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    Quote Originally Posted by BGDrew View Post
    BSU can finish in third as well.
    so BGSU must be able to finish 4th?
    Michigan Tech Legend, Founder of Mitch's Misfits...Posted by Yager on 12/18/09: Remember, remember, the 18th of October (2003).

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  7. #487
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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    So, the Geof-Millsy hybrid model shows:

    Northern 1-3
    Mankato 1-3
    Bowling Green 1-4
    Bemidji 3-5
    Tech 4-6
    Fairbanks 5-9
    Ferris 5-9
    Huntsville 6-9
    Lake State 6-9
    UAA 10
    Millsy

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    BEMIDJI STATE BEAVERS!
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    NCAA D-III National Champs: 1986
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    NCAA D-I National Champs: 20??
    Perfect 31-0 in 1983-84
    Holders of an NCAA Mens Record 43 straight wins (Nov. 8, 1983-Jan. 1, 1985)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shirtless Guy View Post
    so BGSU must be able to finish 4th?
    Correct. BSU is seven points behind BG and both teams have four games left to play. That means thereís 12 WCHA points available for the Beavers to try and catch up if the Falcons falter.

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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    1 Northern Michigan 58 26 (home ice, 1-3)
    2 Minnesota State 57 24 (home ice, 1-3)
    3 Bowling Green 52 25 (home ice, 1-4)
    4 Bemidji State 44 25 (playoffs, 3-5)
    5 Michigan Tech 40 26 (playoffs, 4-6)
    6 Alabama Huntsville 30 26 (6-9)
    7 Alaska 30 25 (6-9)
    8 Ferris State 28 24 (5-9)
    9 Lake Superior State 27 26 (6-9)
    10 Alaska Anchorage 12 25 (out, 10)
    Millsy

    NCAA TOURNAMENT 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010!
    FROZEN FOUR 2009!


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    BEMIDJI STATE BEAVERS!
    NAIA National Champs: 1968, '69, '70, '71, '73, '79, '80
    NCAA D-III National Champs: 1986
    NCAA D-II National Champs: 1984, '93, '94, '95, '97
    NCAA D-I National Champs: 20??
    Perfect 31-0 in 1983-84
    Holders of an NCAA Mens Record 43 straight wins (Nov. 8, 1983-Jan. 1, 1985)

  10. #490
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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    Yep, I screwed up the BSU maximum. I know how I did it, but I don't know why I got it wrong...

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  11. #491
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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    The Beavers lock up home ice with a 2-1 victory over Alaska tonight.

  12. #492
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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    Quote Originally Posted by beaverhockeyfan View Post
    The Beavers lock up home ice with a 2-1 victory over Alaska tonight.
    And they will host Michigan Tech in the first round.

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  13. #493
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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    BELOW ratings after the penultimate week: http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2018/02...below-week-18/

    Teasing out the Minnesota State - Northern Michigan - Bowling Green tiebreakers: http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2018/02...bowling-green/

    https://twitter.com/wchaplayoffs/sta...66864522833920

    https://twitter.com/wchaplayoffs/sta...67462441795590

    UAH and UAF finishing this last week 9-1-1-15 is a nightmare scenario for making the tiebreakers go easily.

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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    So given this (admittedly unlikely) scenario, what happens to seeding and who gets in?

    FSU loses then wins in the shootout/3x3
    BGSU sweeps UAH
    UAA sweeps Fairbanks

    LSSU finishes 6th with 31 points, but behind that:

    UAH 9-16-2-1
    UAF 9-16-2-1
    FSU 9-16-2-1

    Wow.

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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    Quote Originally Posted by John J. MacInnes View Post
    So given this (admittedly unlikely) scenario, what happens to seeding and who gets in?

    FSU loses then wins in the shootout/3x3
    BGSU sweeps UAH
    UAA sweeps Fairbanks

    LSSU finishes 6th with 31 points, but behind that:

    UAH 9-16-2-1
    UAF 9-16-2-1
    FSU 9-16-2-1

    Wow.
    From how I understand the WCHA tiebreaker, www.wcha.com/men/standings.php you have to go down to Section E where records against the highest ranked WCHA team.

    If the top of the standings stays the same, I come up with:
    #7=UAF (best record vs MSUM)
    #8=UAH (better record vs NMU)


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  16. #496
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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    According to CHN, WCHA has >38% chance of getting 2 teams in the tournament this year. MSU is listed as a lock now and NMU (23%)/BGSU (16%)/BSU (none-zero) chance of getting an at large bid. From all of that, I'd put WCHA on 2 bids about 50% of the time. Need NMU/BGSU/MSU to win most of their games not against each other the next 2 weeks.
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  17. #497
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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    Quote Originally Posted by MTUHuskies View Post
    From how I understand the WCHA tiebreaker, www.wcha.com/men/standings.php you have to go down to Section E where records against the highest ranked WCHA team.

    If the top of the standings stays the same, I come up with:
    #7=UAF (best record vs MSUM)
    #8=UAH (better record vs NMU)


    Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
    This is correct.

    http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2018/02...re-2018-02-19/

    Man, it would be awesome if the scenario that I outlined happens on Friday. I would be very happy to only be worried where UAF, UAH, and FSU finish. At that point, we're looking at maybe 30 minutes of tie-breaking and not a few hours.

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  18. #498

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shirtless Guy View Post
    According to CHN, WCHA has >38% chance of getting 2 teams in the tournament this year. MSU is listed as a lock now and NMU (23%)/BGSU (16%)/BSU (none-zero) chance of getting an at large bid. From all of that, I'd put WCHA on 2 bids about 50% of the time. Need NMU/BGSU/MSU to win most of their games not against each other the next 2 weeks.
    If Iím Bill Robertson, Iím secretly hoping someone besides Mankato or NMU wins the autobid. Guarantees two teams, with a decent shot at three depending on what happens with NMU down the stretch.

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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    Quote Originally Posted by Squarebanks View Post
    If Iím Bill Robertson, Iím secretly hoping someone besides Mankato or NMU wins the autobid. Guarantees two teams, with a decent shot at three depending on what happens with NMU down the stretch.
    MTUHuskies is not so secretly hoping someone besides Mankato or NMU wins the autobid.

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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    Quote Originally Posted by MTUHuskies View Post
    MTUHuskies is not so secretly hoping someone besides Mankato or NMU wins the autobid.

    Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
    Dude, we appreciate that, though I admit it's a real surpr...oh...wait...I get it.

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