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Thread: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    I see you on my turf, Millsy.

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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    Don't look now but LSSU, if they get a split this weekend will be in a position to sweep Ferris and if so they are in and Ferris is out. So that last weekend is big for them and for Ferris.
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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    Looking at the pairwise predictor and thinking about the BG and NMU chances. A lot depends on three or four teams out east. BU number 1. if they win the beanpot they can be in the top 15 fairly easily before the end of the year and ahead of both NMu and BG.
    If they lose the Beanpot and one other game it's a lot tougher for them. Northeastern. I figure them the favorite for the Beanpot and a couple more wins and they will be pretty solidly in. Michigan, has a tough schedule in that they have another series with Notre Dame which even if they lose won't hurt them too much, but if they lose one vs MSU I think they will have to win the conf tourney to get in. Minnesota, Wisconsin, are players and we'll have to see. Penn State I think has a tough road and I think the odds are they don't make it 2 at MSU and 2 at home vs Minnesota. I can't see them winning 3 of those 4. WMU lost their top player two weeks ago and will have a tough time.
    In any event BG and NMU have to win out and get someplace in the WCHA tournament and pray for some help. But they still have a chance.
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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2018/02...-and-analysis/

    That's everything that I think that I know about the playoff picture to date.

    Without putting any math behind it, I think that it'll be
    1 - Minnesota State (they have games and three-point wins in hand)
    2 - Northern Michigan (they have three-point wins in hand and, should it come down to it the D tiebreaker)
    3 - Bowling Green
    4 - Bemidji State (the games in hand are huge, even if they've been crap these last two weeks)
    5 - Michigan Tech (can change their fate if they sweep this weekend)
    6 - Alaska (games in hand, including two against UAA, really help)
    7 - Alabama-Huntsville (boy do I want to put them in sixth)
    8 - Ferris State (mainly has to fend off Lake Superior that last weekend)
    9 - Lake Superior
    10 - Alaska-Anchorage (whose fans will now call me a troll)

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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    Quote Originally Posted by gfmorris View Post
    http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2018/02...-and-analysis/

    That's everything that I think that I know about the playoff picture to date.

    Without putting any math behind it, I think that it'll be
    1 - Minnesota State (they have games and three-point wins in hand)
    2 - Northern Michigan (they have three-point wins in hand and, should it come down to it the D tiebreaker)
    3 - Bowling Green
    4 - Bemidji State (the games in hand are huge, even if they've been crap these last two weeks)
    5 - Michigan Tech (can change their fate if they sweep this weekend)
    6 - Alaska (games in hand, including two against UAA, really help)
    7 - Alabama-Huntsville (boy do I want to put them in sixth)
    8 - Ferris State (mainly has to fend off Lake Superior that last weekend)
    9 - Lake Superior
    10 - Alaska-Anchorage (whose fans will now call me a troll)

    GFM
    Looks plausible. Although NOTHING like my preseason predictions looked.

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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    Quote Originally Posted by MTUHuskies View Post
    Looks plausible. Although NOTHING like my preseason predictions looked.
    The only big outliers to me, as someone who plays with data, are NMU and FSU. To a lesser extent, I'm surprised that BG is better and Tech is this middling.

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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    Quote Originally Posted by gfmorris View Post
    The only big outliers to me, as someone who plays with data, are NMU and FSU. To a lesser extent, I'm surprised that BG is better and Tech is this middling.

    GFM
    I guess the more I look at it, I wasn't that far off if you juggle Tech, Ferris and NMU. My preseason predictions were:
    MSU
    MTU
    BSU
    BGSU
    FSU
    UAF
    LSSU
    UAH
    NMU
    UAA








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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    What we know as of this morning: http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2018/02...of-2018-02-09/

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    Quote Originally Posted by MTUHuskies View Post
    I guess the more I look at it, I wasn't that far off if you juggle Tech, Ferris and NMU. My preseason predictions were:
    MSU
    MTU
    BSU
    BGSU
    FSU
    UAF
    LSSU
    UAH
    NMU
    UAA








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    A lot of people seem to have forgotten that NMU had the best record in the WCHA after the New Year last season, and at one point had a 9 game unbeaten streak (7-0-2).
    Last edited by davyd83; 02-10-2018 at 01:51 PM.

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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    Quote Originally Posted by davyd83 View Post
    A lot of people seen to have forgotten that NMU had the best record in the WCHA after the New Year last season, and at one point had a 9 game unbeaten streak (7-0-2).
    In my world Northern sucks no matter what their W-L record states.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MTUHuskies View Post
    In my world Northern sucks no matter what their W-L record states.

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    Looking forward to the great rivalry in two weeks!

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    Quote Originally Posted by davyd83 View Post
    A lot of people seen to have forgotten that NMU had the best record in the WCHA after the New Year last season, and at one point had a 9 game unbeaten streak (7-0-2).
    But they still finished in 8th place and replaced their coaching staff. No one expected nor should they have expected Northern to play as well as they have this season.

    Potulny is going to be a hot name for coaching openings over the next few years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BGDrew View Post
    But they still finished in 8th place and replaced their coaching staff. No one expected nor should they have expected Northern to play as well as they have this season.

    Potulny is going to be a hot name for coaching openings over the next few years.
    I will say that being in contention for the top spot is a bit of a surprise. But I thought they had a good shot at home ice. My preseason looked like this: MINN St
    BG
    Bemidji
    NMU
    Tech
    Ferris
    UAF
    UAH
    UAA
    LSSU

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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    Quote Originally Posted by davyd83 View Post
    A lot of people seem to have forgotten that NMU had the best record in the WCHA after the New Year last season, and at one point had a 9 game unbeaten streak (7-0-2).
    My math didn't forget, but I still had them at league average despite all of that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gfmorris View Post
    My math didn't forget, but I still had them at league average despite all of that.

    GFM
    Same. This second half run has been fun to watch.

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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    Quote Originally Posted by aparch View Post
    Same. This second half run has been fun to watch.
    You mean aside from losing at Huntsville?
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    Quote Originally Posted by manurespreader View Post
    You mean aside from losing at Huntsville?
    That made NMU 9-1-0 in their last 10. How many teams in the country are better than 9-1-0 in their last ten?

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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    It seems the top 3 are fairly set.

    NMU would need a good amount of help from Ferris to topple Mankato, which I don't see as that likely. NMU will also have their hands full with MTU next week.

    BGSU is the most likely mover, IMO. They should close the gap with NMU this weekend and I see them as more likely to gain more points against UAH than NMU will against Tech if we're going to change the status quo.
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    Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

    Quote Originally Posted by RaceBoarder View Post
    It seems the top 3 are fairly set.

    NMU would need a good amount of help from Ferris to topple Mankato, which I don't see as that likely. NMU will also have their hands full with MTU next week.

    BGSU is the most likely mover, IMO. They should close the gap with NMU this weekend and I see them as more likely to gain more points against UAH than NMU will against Tech if we're going to change the status quo.
    I wish I could disagree, but I can't. The Tech series will be a tough split, given the rivalry, let alone sweep.
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    Quote Originally Posted by gfmorris View Post
    http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2018/02...-and-analysis/

    That's everything that I think that I know about the playoff picture to date.

    Without putting any math behind it, I think that it'll be
    1 - Minnesota State (they have games and three-point wins in hand)
    2 - Northern Michigan (they have three-point wins in hand and, should it come down to it the D tiebreaker)
    3 - Bowling Green
    4 - Bemidji State (the games in hand are huge, even if they've been crap these last two weeks)
    5 - Michigan Tech (can change their fate if they sweep this weekend)
    6 - Alaska (games in hand, including two against UAA, really help)
    7 - Alabama-Huntsville (boy do I want to put them in sixth)
    8 - Ferris State (mainly has to fend off Lake Superior that last weekend)
    9 - Lake Superior
    10 - Alaska-Anchorage (whose fans will now call me a troll)

    GFM



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