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Thread: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

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    Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

    It is difficult to judge a teamís performance when watching a game online however it is clear that Kampersal had his team very well prepared. Forwards crowded the front of the net liberally with no push back from the Buckeyes defense. He obviously watched enough video to know that although talented offensively, the OSU defensive corps lacks toughness and aggressiveness in front of their net. As a result, theee of five goals were scored this way. It was also apparent that he would allow the offensively minded Buckeyes defense to skate the puck out of their end into the defensive zone and had his defense push them to the outside allowing no penetration into the dangerous zones. The Penn work ethic is also to be commended as they were relentless and gave OSU very little room on the ice taking away their time and space.

    The Buckeyes did look better late in the game but the empty net goal was a back breaker. I always question pulling a goalie that early as it rarely works. I also believe that there is some validity in DD17ís comment that the players have stopped playing for the coach. It is almost Ottawa Senator like but can be turned around if there is open and honest communication between the staff and players.

    This is a good team with a good staff and it is time to figure things out.

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    Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

    Quote Originally Posted by osualum86 View Post
    Pgb-ohio, I'm approaching the point where I am going to need you to talk me off the ledge.
    Don't jump! We need you in the stands this afternoon! Unfortunately my Three Stars post probably won't be of much comfort to you. For reasons obvious to all, most of the praise went to Penn State. For better or worse, the Three Stars can found on the WCHA thread.

    Emma Maltais was in Germany tonight playing for Canada in the Nations Cup, but again, we should still have enough talented players to get the W tonight.
    While BigFan is correct about Emma's importance, I agree with you. Every team has to get past the temporary loss of one player. Injuries, Illness & International Games are part of our landscape.

    I do agree with Coach Nadine that we need to score and start playing like a top ten team. I also think we are totally not used to being the hunted. Other teams know about our record/ranking, and they are stepping it up when they play us. We need to step our game up, too, and we haven't done that for more than a month. I just hope this is rock bottom and we start coming out of it right now.
    Yes. When ranked in the Top 10, all of your opponents circle the game on the calendar, and bring their 'A' game. The Penn State players were jubilant after the game last night, and deservedly so. The Buckeyes need to internalize this lesson, and prepare to play accordingly.

    Tonight was Ohio State's first loss on home ice all season. The other four losses were all on the road.
    Good perspective. The season didn't end last night. But it most certainly was a wake-up call for the second half of the year. Much has been accomplished; but much remains to be accomplished. Don't miss the show; back off from that ledge.

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    Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

    Quote Originally Posted by Puckdrop14 View Post
    It is difficult to judge a teamís performance when watching a game online however it is clear that Kampersal had his team very well prepared.
    Very true.

    The Buckeyes did look better late in the game but the empty net goal was a back breaker. I always question pulling a goalie that early as it rarely works.
    See Blais, Dean.

    In the 2001 Men's National Title Game, Blais pulled his keeper with about 8 minutes left in regulation. UND got the needed goals to force overtime. Granted, pulling the goalie that early is a high risk/high reward strategy in the extreme. And sadly, Blais lost that game in OT. But it can work.

    Friday night's situation? 3:03 to play. Two goals needed to tie. The Buckeyes hadn't really done much at even strength all night long. In contrast, they had broken through with the man advantage. Under the exact circumstances, I was fine with the decision. Obviously it didn't work out, but it was a long shot either way. IMHO Coach Muzz improved our odds, if only a little, by making the move.


    EDIT: In the Saturday game, it was Penn State's turn to try to make up a two goal deficit as time was winding down. I didn't make a mental note of the exact time the PSU pulled their goalie. I do know that PSU got a PP with 2:33 left in regulation. I'm not sure if the goalie was pulled at the start of the power play or a moment thereafter. But either way, it was a little early by traditional standards.

    Again, I endorse the coaching decision. Pulling the goalie gave the Lions a 6x4 advantage, and thus the best chance to score quickly. As it turned out, neither team scored again. Ultimately a PSU penalty with 1:03 left brought the goalie back onto the ice. For all intents and purposes, that penalty also ended the game, rendering the early goalie pull a moot point. But I still believe that it was a chance worth taking.
    Last edited by pgb-ohio; 01-06-2018 at 08:31 PM.

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    Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

    Quote Originally Posted by BigFan View Post
    Emma Maltais is the straw in the drink for this team, not only does she rack up better than a point a game she makes everyone around her better. I really believe they miss her more than some people think.
    I agree. I saw the series in Minneapolis, and I doubt that the OSU would have taken any points without Maltais. Obviously in close games, that may be true about several players.
    Last edited by ARM; 01-07-2018 at 10:52 AM. Reason: Fixed quoting issue.
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    Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

    Ohio State is up 1-0 after two, and going by the game tracker they're leading 35-15 in shots, so it looks like they're a different team today.

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    Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

    Ohio State is up 2-0 on a penalty shot, but I hope someone can explain this: the game tracker says Penn State got a penalty for delay of game, and Ohio State got a penalty shot out of it. How does that happen?

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    Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

    Under Rule 67, a Delay of Game penalty can be called in multiple situations. One of them is when a defender, other than the goalie, intentionally covers up the puck in the crease. That's what happened today.

    Also note that the Penalty Shot option is available to the ref in some, but not all, of the Delay of Game scenarios.

    It was a pretty wild play. It was reviewed for offside (onside call confirmed); and reviewed for a possible goal, on a shot by Jacyn Reeves (no goal call confirmed). Those decisions allowed the penalty shot to proceed, and Grace Zarzecki's conversion was superb. More on this in the 3 Stars post. (Coming Soon)

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    Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

    Quote Originally Posted by pgb-ohio View Post
    It was a pretty wild play. It was reviewed for offside (onside call confirmed); and reviewed for a possible goal, on a shot by Jacyn Reeves (no goal call confirmed). Those decisions allowed the penalty shot to proceed, and Grace Zarzecki's conversion was superb. More on this in the 3 Stars post. (Coming Soon)
    The 3 Stars have now been posted in the WCHA Thread. As planned, Grace's penalty shot goal figures prominently in the write-up.

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    Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

    Pgb-Ohio ... and my other friends here that put up with my rant last night (and put up with me in general), I am now off the ledge. But please, just promise me they're going to play like this every game from here on out (haha)! Despite last night's performance, it has been great to see this team win games and be in the top ten. I don't want to miss out on all the fun! Love this team! ZedLeppelin, you are correct in that the Buckeyes were a different team today. This was the Buckeye team that we had gotten used to seeing. Pgb has already explained the situation with the Bucks penalty shot where the Penn State player covered the puck in the crease. As Pgb said, it was a pretty wild play. I was happy for the girls today. They really stepped it up and looked like a top ten team. The Bucks smothered Penn State today, outshooting them 41-24. Penn State goaltender Hannah Ehresmann kept the Lions in the game with some great saves today, stopping 39 of the 41 shots she faced. Ohio State backstop Kassidy Sauve added to her Ohio State shutout record today with 24 saves on 24 Penn State shots. The Buckeye goals were scored by Liz Schepers and Grace Zarzecki. The Bucks were also very good in the face-off circle today, winning 38 of the 59 face-offs. Next up for the Buckeyes is another series vs top ten Robert Morris at the OSU Ice Rink next weekend before getting back to WCHA play after that. Penn State will head out to Missouri to take on Lindenwood next weekend.

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    Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

    Quote Originally Posted by ARM View Post
    I agree. I saw the series in Minneapolis, and I doubt that the OSU would have taken any points without Maltais. Obviously in close games, that may be true about several players.
    Yeah, BigFan mentioned this last night, and I think it is probably a legitimate point. Emma is obviously a very gifted player and shuffling lines to make up for her absence probably isn't as easy as it sounds when these kids are used to playing with certain players. It's nice to have this problem where we miss kids because they are playing for their national teams. I would rather have players like that on the team and have them miss games than not have them. When you recruit players with that ability, it goes with the territory that they are going to miss some games while suiting up for their national teams. I will definitely be glad to have her back vs RMU next weekend!
    Last edited by osualum86; 01-07-2018 at 09:49 AM.

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    Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

    Quote Originally Posted by osualum86 View Post
    Yeah, dd17 mentioned this last night, and I think it is probably a legitimate point.
    My reading of the thread is that BigFan was the poster praising Emma, while dd17 was critiquing the coaching staff. Then again, it was hard to tell. At least 4 posts had the quotes messed up. There must have been some sort of systems glitch at the time of that conversation. Or, maybe everyone was drinking heavily after Friday's game.

    In any event, I do believe BigFan is the poster who deserves the props.

    Emma is obviously a very gifted player and shuffling lines to make up for her absence probably isn't as easy as it sounds when these kids are used to playing with certain players.
    True. Setting lines is a real art, with many factors to take into consideration. And some of those factors are known only to those in the room.

    The players do, of course, need to be at least somewhat interchangeable. This weekend's series is Exhibit A in that regard. As we've been discussing, a certain number of missed games is inevitable. A team can't fall apart just because a certain line combination isn't available.

    And yet, it's undeniable that certain combinations develop a chemistry that can't be coached. In those cases, the task is to identify the synergy & harness it. Emma's return will put some of those options back in play.

    It's nice to have this problem where we miss kids because they are playing for their national teams. I would rather have players like that on the team and have them miss games than not have them. When you recruit players with that ability, it goes with the territory that they are going to miss some games while suiting up for their national teams. I will definitely be glad to have her back vs RMU next weekend!
    Agreed on all counts.

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    Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

    You are correct about BigFan regarding the Emma Maltais statement. Gonna go back and edit that.

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    Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

    Quote Originally Posted by osualum86 View Post
    Gonna go back and edit that.
    Me too; thanks pgb!
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    Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

    Looks like the Buckeyes put it together on Saturday. Maybe, just maybe the alarm bell was wrung too soon! Having said that, scoring two goals, one of them on a penalty shot does not indicate that the team's scoring woes are behind them. The upcoming weekend series against RMU will be hugely important and only a sweep will keep them in the top 8, at least that is my view. Good bounce back game for the Buckeyes. And then come the Gophers, Bulldogs and Badgers! Ouch....

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    Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

    Quote Originally Posted by Puckdrop14 View Post
    Looks like the Buckeyes put it together on Saturday. Maybe, just maybe the alarm bell was wrung too soon! Having said that, scoring two goals, one of them on a penalty shot does not indicate that the team's scoring woes are behind them. The upcoming weekend series against RMU will be hugely important and only a sweep will keep them in the top 8, at least that is my view. Good bounce back game for the Buckeyes. And then come the Gophers, Bulldogs and Badgers! Ouch....
    The Buckeyes looked like the ranked team we have seen this season. Totally agree with you on the goal-scoring, though. It's not that the Buckeyes are not getting their chances. They had plenty of chances to blow Saturday's game open. They need to get better at finishing, whether it is on a breakaway, or in traffic around the net. In regard to the rankings, the only ranking that means anything is the pairwise, and if I have learned anything about the pairwise, it is the unpredictability of it. I was sure we were going to drop after splitting at home this past weekend vs a team that is ranked well below us and we actually moved up a spot from 7th to 6th ... go figure. I would really like to see a sweep this weekend at home vs a top ten RMU team. We'll see. We need to come out strong and win Friday. As my friend klbaum1077 likes to say over in the men's forum ... "You can't sweep if you don't win Friday." We'll see what happens. Then, as you mentioned, we have the teams I have always characterized as the big three coming up ... Minnesota, Minnesota-Duluth, and Wisconsin. Those three programs have won multiple National Titles.
    Last edited by osualum86; 01-09-2018 at 07:45 AM.

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    Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

    Quote Originally Posted by Puckdrop14 View Post
    Looks like the Buckeyes put it together on Saturday. Maybe, just maybe the alarm bell was wrung too soon!
    Actually, it probably should have sounded back during the St. Cloud series. OK, I'm talking alarm clock, while you probably mean something like fire alarm.

    Having said that, scoring two goals, one of them on a penalty shot does not indicate that the team's scoring woes are behind them.
    Both goalies were good in the Saturday PSU game. The score could easily have been 4-1 rather than 2-0. And yet both you and '86 make a good point about finishing touches. Maybe give the Dahlquist/Maltais/Skaggs line another try? That group had some scoring magic.

    The upcoming weekend series against RMU will be hugely important and only a sweep will keep them in the top 8, at least that is my view. Good bounce back game for the Buckeyes. And then come the Gophers, Bulldogs and Badgers! Ouch....
    One reason to belong to the WCHA is to compete against the best possible competition. Same thing with scheduling excellent non-conference teams like RMU. But yes, playing these 4 teams on consecutive weekends really is running the gauntlet. At least 3 of the 4 series are at home.

    Quote Originally Posted by osualum86 View Post
    ...In regard to the rankings, the only ranking that means anything is the pairwise, and if I have learned anything about the pairwise, it is the unpredictability of it. I was sure we were going to drop after splitting at home this past weekend vs a team that is ranked well below us and we actually moved up a spot from 7th to 6th ... go figure.
    I suppose one issue is that every D-1 game played potentially affects the rankings, but the natural tendency is to focus only on one's own team. My general understanding: The key is to win the season series against as many opponents as possible. From there, you get a dividend when those teams win. I think. If that's at least close, it's urgent to at least split with MN & UMD -- so that we win the season series with each.

    Maybe one of the quantitative people can help us translate Pairwise into English.

    Then, as you mentioned, we have the teams I have always characterized as the big three coming up ... Minnesota, Minnesota-Duluth, and Wisconsin. Those three programs have won multiple National Titles.
    We really should be playing Clarkson this semester as well. We're such slackers.

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    Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

    Quote Originally Posted by pgb-ohio View Post
    Maybe one of the quantitative people can help us translate Pairwise into English.
    The Pairwise comparisons have three components to them, but they will most often come down to 'who has the better RPI?'.

    The three components are 1) RPI, 2) won-lose record against common opponents, 3) head-to-head

    All teams will have an RPI, and every pair of teams will have a record against common opponents. Relatively few pairs will have head-to-head records. So with no head-to-head, it comes down to only the first two, and if you 'split' those two - one team with a better RPI, and the other with a better 'common opponent' - 'better RPI' wins.

    So, looking down OSU's schedule, and the current Pairwise standings, the only two interesting 'pairs' I see that could be decided on anything other than 'better RPI' are Robert Morris, and Minnesota, because of the head-to-head component.

    Robert Morris - OSU plays them two weekends (?), and already split one weekend. Each team gets one 'Pairwise comparison' point for a head-to-head win. Another split this weekend, and 'head-to-head' will be cancelled out, and you'll be back to 'who has the better RPI?'. A sweep by either would give that team a 3-1 comparison lead. Now, a 3-1 lead can be overcome if the 'swept team' ends the year with a better RPI and a better 'common opponents' comparison. Assuming a sweep, and then digging through a 'common opponent' comparison is more than I want to do this AM

    Minnesota - OSU currently has a one point lead in the head-to-head (1.5 to 0.5), but with two and maybe three games left to play. Minn has a better RPI, so they get a 'comparison point' for that. Obviously, plenty of 'common opponents', with plenty of more games to be played with those common opponents. But (again) without digging through those 'common' results, Minn must be winning 'common opponents' comparison right now, because they are winning the overall comparison. (One used to be able to click on a comparison table at USCHO to see the specifics of a given pair, but that has gone away).

    RPI itself is a complex calculation based on a team's won-lose percentage, and their opponents' won-lose, and their opponents' opponents' won-lose. But simply put: beating good teams is good for your RPI; beating bad teams not as good; losing to bad teams is bad; losing to good teams not all that bad, but still a little bad.

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    Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

    Thanks robertearle. I appreciate that you took the time to post that.

    My casual little try was a somewhat reasonable description of a couple of the trees, but certainly lacked an understanding of the overall forest. For example, an opponent's subsequent won-lost percentage does matter as I suggested, but it's only one component of the RPI. Which in turn is only one component of the Pairwise.

    Please allow me some follow-up inquiries:

    1. If I'm understanding you correctly, the games with the Colonials & the Gophers have extra importance in the Pairwise only because those teams are close to the Buckeyes in the rankings. As such, head-to-head results could come into play as something of a tiebreaker at the end. But if one of the teams rockets up or plummets down in the rankings, suddenly it's just another series -- meaning no special Pairwise importance. Correct?

    2. Along the same lines, the OSU/UW series has no special Pairwise importance because UW is inevitably going to finish with a better RPI this year. From a Buckeye point of view, playing the Badgers is an opportunity to get a little statistical push from a victory, but that's it. No real downside risk because losing to a great team is only a little bad. No opportunity to move in front of the Badgers because the gap in "overall body of work" is too great. Accurate?

    3. As we get close to the end, is there any common scenario where an individual series could have a big impact in the overall rankings? I get that the rankings are very volatile early in the season due to the small number of data points. But for those of us who don't do the calculations, it often seems like late season results that should "matter," don't have any real impact in the rankings. When is a series genuinely huge from a Pairwise perspective?

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    Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

    Quote Originally Posted by robertearle View Post
    . . . if you 'split' those two - one team with a better RPI, and the other with a better 'common opponent' - 'better RPI' wins.
    Maybe. The committee has left itself the discretion to say that, if one criterion is very close and the other has a significant gap, they can go with the latter. This used to matter more, when there were more categories, but it means that having the better RPI is not an automatic tiebreaker. What constitutes "very close" and "significant" is entirely undefined.

    But simply put: beating good teams is good for your RPI; beating bad teams not as good; losing to bad teams is bad; losing to good teams not all that bad, but still a little bad.
    It's not that simple. In the raw RPI calculation, it matters not at all which teams you beat and which you lose to; the only relevant numbers are your winning percentage, your opponents' winning percentage, and your opponents' opponents' winning percentage. Which teams you beat gets entirely thrown out.

    Then you get into the modifications of raw RPI. Because RPI is such a deeply stupid ranking system, a win against a really bad team can actually drop your rating by hurting your Opponents' Winning Percentage component by more than it helps your own Winning Percentage. To compensate, the committee throws out every game you win that would hurt your RPI and recalculates. The number of games that get thrown out depends on both how weak a given opponent was and how good you are. This means that beating the weakest teams on your schedule is imperative, not just because it helps your winning percentage, but because it prevents your OWP component from getting polluted.

    Then you get the Quality Win bonus, which applies an arbitrary bonus to any win you have against a team in the top 15 of RPI, and half of that bonus for a tie. The amount of this bonus is on a sliding scale depending upon exactly where the opponent sits in RPI.

    The calculation of raw RPI is pretty straightforward, which is why the NCAA likes it. You'd think that having to make so many arbitrary, ad hoc modifications of the formula would clue them into the fact that RPI is complete and total garbage that the modifications can't really fix, but it seems that the relevant decision makers are innumerate.

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    Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2017-2018 ... Home Playoffs This Season?

    Quote Originally Posted by pgb-ohio View Post
    1. If I'm understanding you correctly, the games with the Colonials & the Gophers have extra importance in the Pairwise only because those teams are close to the Buckeyes in the rankings. As such, head-to-head results could come into play as something of a tiebreaker at the end. But if one of the teams rockets up or plummets down in the rankings, suddenly it's just another series -- meaning no special Pairwise importance. Correct?
    Probably incorrect. Those head-to-head wins are still used to help decide who wins the comparison between the two teams, and the first cut for who makes the tournament is based upon the raw number of comparisons that you win. So, let's say you finish with a better RPI than a team you lost to twice during the season, and you finish about even in a very small number of games against common opponents. The committee might decide that the RPI advantage is not sufficiently "significant" (see previous post) to overcome the two points for HtH wins. So, you'd lose the comparison against that opponent, and if you were on the tournament bubble, that could mean falling out.

    There are a lot of caveats in all of that, because there are places where the prioritization of selection criteria is obscure. It's unlikely that the specific situation described above would happen, but dumber things have taken place.

    2. Along the same lines, the OSU/UW series has no special Pairwise importance because UW is inevitably going to finish with a better RPI this year. From a Buckeye point of view, playing the Badgers is an opportunity to get a little statistical push from a victory, but that's it. No real downside risk because losing to a great team is only a little bad. No opportunity to move in front of the Badgers because the gap in "overall body of work" is too great. Accurate?
    Inaccurate. As I said above, a loss is a loss when it comes to calculating RPI. KRACH works the way you're thinking; RPI does not.

    3. As we get close to the end, is there any common scenario where an individual series could have a big impact in the overall rankings? I get that the rankings are very volatile early in the season due to the small number of data points. But for those of us who don't do the calculations, it often seems like late season results that should "matter," don't have any real impact in the rankings. When is a series genuinely huge from a Pairwise perspective?
    Anytime you're in a situation where HtH results could flip a comparison, it's a huge series. Games against very bad teams can be huge, because you don't get to drop a loss or tie from your RPI calculation. Back when they had the "Record vs Teams Under Consideration" component to PWR, any series played by a team hovering right around the threshold of being a TUC was huge, because small changes in their winning percentage had a outsized effect on which games were included in other teams' record vs TUC; this component was so mindboggingly dumb that it only took the NCAA about two decades to realize that it had to go.

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