Re: POTUS 45.18 - Who Run Derpertown? McMasterBlaster Run Derpertown.
Silver understood, though, that the polls were not independent. i.e., if Wisconsin missed, then Michigan and Pennsylvania were also likely to miss the same way.
The people saying she was a 99% lock treated the polls as independent, which meant that even if Wisconsin missed, Michigan could've missed just as much in the other direction. And the odds of all of them missing the mark the same way were akin to flipping 10 coins and having them all end up as heads. (an event which will happen at some point given a sufficient number of coin flips). Extremely rare events are not, by their definition, impossible.
Originally posted by Handyman
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The people saying she was a 99% lock treated the polls as independent, which meant that even if Wisconsin missed, Michigan could've missed just as much in the other direction. And the odds of all of them missing the mark the same way were akin to flipping 10 coins and having them all end up as heads. (an event which will happen at some point given a sufficient number of coin flips). Extremely rare events are not, by their definition, impossible.
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