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Thread: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."

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    2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."

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    Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."

    We'll see. They know how to win.

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    Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."

    Quote Originally Posted by ScoobyDoo View Post
    We'll see. They know how to win.
    Not really, not anymore. They've been getting by because the Dems have been dumb. But the Dems' worst obvious self-inflicted wounds were vaporized in 2016.
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    Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."

    Well, I'd say Dems need to start bagging some wins to keep the enthusiasm going. That starts with GA-6 and the NJ & VA governor's races this year.
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    Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."

    Quote Originally Posted by ScoobyDoo View Post
    We'll see. They know how to win.
    Well it will also depend on the candidates. This Guy could easily unseat Paulsen IMHO. Reading his bio it is tailor made for political office.

    Father died in Vietnam, mother remarried into the Phillips family. (liquor) He went to Brown, worked in the family business, left to create a new business and that flourished as well. Family does tons of charity work and is big in Philanthropic circles.
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    Kichizapi Chetan
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    Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."

    So, Kep, when you say, "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote" are you saying it's about ...

    Who. Shows. Up.

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    Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."

    Quote Originally Posted by The Sicatoka View Post
    So, Kep, when you say, "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote" are you saying it's about ...

    Who. Shows. Up.

    Well, I was quoting Michelle to rile up the Haters. But yes, that's certainly what matters. I think these last few elections have laid to rest any notion that anyone's mind is changed by campaigns. An election is a turnout fight. People have long since locked into their belief system and nothing's going to change it.
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    Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."

    538 also had Clinton winning in a rout.
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    Quote Originally Posted by SonofSouthie View Post
    538 also had Clinton winning in a rout.
    No, it didn't. It gave Trump a larger chance than any other predictive site. It gave Clinton a 75% chance of winning, but it consistently predicted it'd be relatively close (to put it in sports terms, it said Clinton was the favorite to win, but it'd probably take 6 games, if not 7). It also understood more than anyone that if the polls missed in one state, they likely missed in similar states in similar ways.

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    Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."

    538 missed.
    NYT missed ... and very late in the game.

    http://www.wnd.com/files/2016/11/NYT-election-odds.jpg

    How do we believe any "pollsters" going forward?
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    Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."

    Quote Originally Posted by The Sicatoka View Post
    So, Kep, when you say, "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote" are you saying it's about ...

    Who. Shows. Up.

    It's not just who shows up. It's which faction can get the most loyalty to the party over the person. And right now the Dems don't get any party loyalty while the GOP gets it in spades.
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    Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."

    Quote Originally Posted by The Sicatoka View Post
    538 missed.
    NYT missed ... and very late in the game.

    http://www.wnd.com/files/2016/11/NYT-election-odds.jpg

    How do we believe any "pollsters" going forward?
    You just posted a link to WND followed by a question about believability...

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    Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."

    Quote Originally Posted by The Sicatoka View Post
    538 missed.
    NYT missed ... and very late in the game.

    http://www.wnd.com/files/2016/11/NYT-election-odds.jpg

    How do we believe any "pollsters" going forward?
    Check their sampling. See if they over-sample, which they constantly did this time around to push the narrative.
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    Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."

    Quote Originally Posted by jerphisch View Post
    You just posted a link to WND followed by a question about believability...
    Touche.

    However, I was watching the NYT site on election night.
    That is the NYT "probablity of winning" real-time graphic from that evening.
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Sicatoka View Post
    538 missed.
    NYT missed ... and very late in the game.

    http://www.wnd.com/files/2016/11/NYT-election-odds.jpg

    How do we believe any "pollsters" going forward?
    The same way you believe oddsmakers after an underdog wins a sporting event. Just because the USA beat Russia in 1980 doesn't mean everyone was wrong to make Russia the heavy favorite in that game.

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    Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."

    Quote Originally Posted by unofan View Post
    No, it didn't. It gave Trump a larger chance than any other predictive site. It gave Clinton a 75% chance of winning, but it consistently predicted it'd be relatively close (to put it in sports terms, it said Clinton was the favorite to win, but it'd probably take 6 games, if not 7). It also understood more than anyone that if the polls missed in one state, they likely missed in similar states in similar ways.
    I was referring a rout in regards to electoral votes. On Nov 8th 538 had Clinton forecast 302 ev's, trump 235. Even their % of winning was 71.4 to 28.6 in favor of Clinton. R-O-U-T.
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    Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."

    Quote Originally Posted by SonofSouthie View Post
    I was referring a rout in regards to electoral votes. On Nov 8th 538 had Clinton forecast 302 ev's, trump 235. Even their % of winning was 71.4 to 28.6 in favor of Clinton. R-O-U-T.
    33 EVs to spare and 70% likelihood are routs now?

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    Quote Originally Posted by French Rage View Post
    33 EVs to spare and 70% likelihood are routs now?
    Facts don't trump his truthiness (pun intended). A 3:1 underdog never wins.

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    Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."

    This is where one remembers that the Warriors and Indians blew 3-1 leads. 2016 was interesting that way. (Silver even had a post about how Clinton and the Indians had the same lead in mid- October)
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    Re: 2018 Midterms 1: "Elections aren't just about who votes but who doesn't vote."

    Subscribed because the rats are bailing and sicatoka doesn't understand math.

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