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Thread: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

  1. #101
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    Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

    Quote Originally Posted by unofan View Post
    Well, it might help to start planning for the next one, because global warming will turn 1000 year events into 100 year events.
    Is that before or after Florida is entirely under water?
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    Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

    Quote Originally Posted by mookie1995 View Post
    Will still be cheaper to rebuild one city every 100 years than to retrofit them all to make waterproof
    Build them inland on rivers.

    Or, you know, stop burning fossil fuels.
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    Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

    Quote Originally Posted by unofan View Post
    Well, it might help to start planning for the next one, because global warming will turn 1000 year events into 100 year events.
    Or 10 year events.
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    Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

    Quote Originally Posted by Ralph Baer View Post
    I hope that hockeyplayer1015 is OK. He hasn't posted since early yesterday afternoon.
    He's probably kinda busy. Also I suspect the power grid isn't in the best shape.
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  5. #105
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    Quote Originally Posted by mookie1995 View Post
    Will still be cheaper to rebuild one city every 100 years than to retrofit them all to make waterproof
    that's not how 100-year events work...

  6. #106
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    Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

    Quote Originally Posted by ScoobyDoo View Post
    You can't. BUT. You can do more. And they don't do more, why? Cause Republicans that's why.

    From my article I posted.
    I want you to review this map (link). Go and find the major cities in the US. NYC, Chicago, Houston, LA, Philadelphia. All of them have large sections of the city that are in a 500-year floodplain. They don't even show 1,000-year floodplains because those are considered to be Zone X. That's what we're experiencing here. A flood that impacts Zone X areas. Find Dickinson, TX on that map. It's all Zone X and not considered to be a floodway. The entire town is underwater today.

    I'm guessing you live in a Zone X area. Now look at the north metro in the Twin Cities. There are large swaths of Zone A. How about Duluth, MN? There are massive areas that aren't even classified, yet this.

    It's going to cost tens of trillions of dollars to mitigate all of the potential issues across the nation with 1,000-year floods, if that's your criteria. You are living in a fantasy world if we decide to stop putting people in flood plains. And why stop there? Why not ban new construction in seismically active areas? What about all hurricane-prone areas? It's going to be impossible to mitigate this kind of risk. All you can do is what we do today. Map out potential flood areas and require insurance for some of these areas. Many (most?) mortgage companies require you to carry flood insurance if you live anywhere with risk greater than Zone X.

    The reality is that something like 40-50 percent of the US population lives near a coastline. How do you solve that? It's going to take generations and a complete shift in human behavior. We need to live near coastal areas since that's where the bulk of commerce occurs. I'm not saying we shouldn't do anything. I'm saying we have to be realistic.


    *3% of the US population lived in a 100-year coastal floodplain. Link I don't think that includes all of the inland areas.
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  7. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by unofan View Post
    that's not how 100-year events work...
    Tell that to the 100 yr events then - as they keep showing up early

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    Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

    It's a trade off. People choose to live next to rivers, lakes and oceans for economic reasons. Sometimes you pay the price for that choice, most of the time you benefit economically from it. Mother nature can be a biatch sometimes.
    That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kepler View Post
    Build them inland on rivers.

    Or, you know, stop burning fossil fuels.
    Fred flintstone foot breaks

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    Quote Originally Posted by SJHovey View Post
    It's a trade off. People choose to live next to rivers, lakes and oceans for economic reasons. Sometimes you pay the price for that choice, most of the time you benefit economically from it. Mother nature can be a biatch sometimes.
    Misogyny alert!!!!!

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    Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

    Quote Originally Posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
    I want you to review this map (link). Go and find the major cities in the US. NYC, Chicago, Houston, LA, Philadelphia. All of them have large sections of the city that are in a 500-year floodplain. They don't even show 1,000-year floodplains because those are considered to be Zone X. That's what we're experiencing here. A flood that impacts Zone X areas. Find Dickinson, TX on that map. It's all Zone X and not considered to be a floodway. The entire town is underwater today.

    I'm guessing you live in a Zone X area. Now look at the north metro in the Twin Cities. There are large swaths of Zone A. How about Duluth, MN? There are massive areas that aren't even classified, yet this.

    It's going to cost tens of trillions of dollars to mitigate all of the potential issues across the nation with 1,000-year floods, if that's your criteria. You are living in a fantasy world if we decide to stop putting people in flood plains. And why stop there? Why not ban new construction in seismically active areas? What about all hurricane-prone areas? It's going to be impossible to mitigate this kind of risk. All you can do is what we do today. Map out potential flood areas and require insurance for some of these areas. Many (most?) mortgage companies require you to carry flood insurance if you live anywhere with risk greater than Zone X.

    The reality is that something like 40-50 percent of the US population lives near a coastline. How do you solve that? It's going to take generations and a complete shift in human behavior. We need to live near coastal areas since that's where the bulk of commerce occurs. I'm not saying we shouldn't do anything. I'm saying we have to be realistic.


    *3% of the US population lived in a 100-year coastal floodplain. Link I don't think that includes all of the inland areas.
    This is what I mean by doing more now.

    1. New Orleans’s levees failed because Katrina was just too big.

    This was how the Army Corps of Engineers tried to spin it in the aftermath of the storm. But key levees, including the 17th Street and London Avenue canals in the heart of the city, failed with water well below levels they were designed to withstand.

    As the Army Corps eventually conceded, they were breached because of flawed engineering and collapsed because they were junk. Sheet piling — metal planks driven into the ground to reinforce levees and flood walls — didn’t run deep enough. Corps geologists botched tests that should have determined soil stability below the levees. The Corps and local levee boards that maintain flood barriers pinched pennies, and suddenly Katrina became the nation’s first $200 billion disaster.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...=.e5a85b5eda93

    And how much more of this crap and coverup is going on now across the country? Also, this:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/15/c...a.html?mcubz=1

    A key element of the new executive order rolls back standards set by former President Barack Obama that required the federal government to account for climate change and sea-level rise when building infrastructure.
    I believe in science and engineering. But science and engineering can only work if we listen to them and regulate what needs regulating. I feel sorry for these people in Houston but rest assured if I lived there I would've had flood insurance and if I couldn't have flood insurance I would not have lived there.
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    Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

    In response to building in seismically active areas, I know here in Alaska (and in California) we pretty strict building codes for mitigating damage done by earthquakes. A lot of public buildings like schools are usually retrofitted to meet these codes at big cost. And all of these codes were developed after years of expensive research.

    In contrast to that, you really haven't seen as much effort to preventing or mitigating flood damage in places like Houston.

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    Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

    Insurance rates can take care of most of this. You want to build on a fault line? As you wish; now enjoy premiums as large as your mortgage.

    Do the same with property in a flood zone. Individual buyer and seller decisions will shift businesses, jobs, commercial and residential space over time.

    Here are the 100/500 year maps for NYC. Assume within the next few decades all of that land becomes at immediate risk of flooding if the GOP sh-tbirds keep destroying the planet.

    Over those same decades all of those areas could be all but vacated -- maybe even replaced with some sort of wildlife preserve that doesn't mind occasional flooding. Not like anybody's gonna miss Sheepshead Bay.
    Last edited by Kepler; 08-28-2017 at 01:32 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ralph Baer View Post
    I hope that hockeyplayer1015 is OK. He hasn't posted since early yesterday afternoon.
    Quote Originally Posted by Kepler View Post
    He's probably kinda busy. Also I suspect the power grid isn't in the best shape.

    I'm in good shape, safe and sound in my floating penthouse (inland towboat). Yesterday we really didn't get any rain, today it's been steady but not too heavy.

    Kep, busy? Hah. Not much for me to do other than babysit my equipment and watch the clouds go by.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mookie1995 View Post
    Tell that to the 100 yr events then - as they keep showing up early
    You're missing the point of my objection. A 100-year event in Houston is independent of a 100-year event in NYC. If 1000-year, city destroying events become 100-year events, we won't be rebuilding one city every 100 years, we'll be rebuilding every city every 100 years (on average).

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    Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

    Here's a pretty good article explaining the XXX year terminology and how it is determined, with a focus on Houston.

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    Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

    Quote Originally Posted by jerphisch View Post
    Here's a pretty good article explaining the XXX year terminology and how it is determined, with a focus on Houston.
    Great article. Everyone should read the last section titled "Houston wasn’t even prepared for a 15-year flood". That pretty well sums it up.
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    Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

    Quote Originally Posted by hockeyplayer1015 View Post
    I'm in good shape, safe and sound in my floating penthouse (inland towboat). Yesterday we really didn't get any rain, today it's been steady but not too heavy.

    Kep, busy? Hah. Not much for me to do other than babysit my equipment and watch the clouds go by.
    This may be a dumb question but did you go out to sea during the actual winds? My landlubber's understanding is that the two great enemies of ships during a storm are fire and sh-t you can ram into. Not much to do about #1, but #2 they solve by actually leaving port and riding it out.
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    Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

    Quote Originally Posted by Jimjamesak View Post
    In response to building in seismically active areas, I know here in Alaska (and in California) we pretty strict building codes for mitigating damage done by earthquakes. A lot of public buildings like schools are usually retrofitted to meet these codes at big cost. And all of these codes were developed after years of expensive research.

    In contrast to that, you really haven't seen as much effort to preventing or mitigating flood damage in places like Houston.
    Honestly, there is probably a limited amount you can do regarding flooding in Houston. The City is basically built on a swamp. Maybe there are additional things they can do such as flood walls or the like, but when major events happen, you just have to take your medicine for choosing to live in such a place.

    The same with a place like San Francisco. It is about as far from a "conservative" city as we can get in this country, so I'm sure their preparedness for earthquakes is non pareil. But when an earthquake hits that is well beyond the magnitude of anything seen before, it's going to be a mess there.
    That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.

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    Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

    Quote Originally Posted by SJHovey View Post
    Honestly, there is probably a limited amount you can do regarding flooding in Houston. The City is basically built on a swamp. Maybe there are additional things they can do such as flood walls or the like, but when major events happen, you just have to take your medicine for choosing to live in such a place.

    The same with a place like San Francisco. It is about as far from a "conservative" city as we can get in this country, so I'm sure their preparedness for earthquakes is non pareil. But when an earthquake hits that is well beyond the magnitude of anything seen before, it's going to be a mess there.
    From the article that jerphisch posted:

    Even the things the city of Houston was trying to do weren’t working — the mitigation plan called to discourage building within the 100-year floodplain, but 7,000 homes were built since 2010 in low-lying areas of the city. And while the Army Corps of Engineers and Harris County had launched a partnership to widen channels and build bridges in the Brays Bayou area to reduce the impact of flooding, the city was unable to muster the resources to build new seawall or floodgates — which Bedient and other experts agreed would be needed to mitigate the damage of a 100-year or 500-year storm.
    Again. No one is saying you can do everything. What I am saying is we're not doing enough. Not even close. And the evidence to that effect is staggering.
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