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Thread: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

  1. #281
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    Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

    Wisko, I'd quote but too much to trim on mobile. I'm at work, now in Baton Rouge, will be headed north on the Mississippi.

    Keeping an eye on Irma still, but don't believe I'll head home (Brandon/Riverview area) with current tracks. Tomorrow will be my 'decision' day, and I'd travel back Friday if it shifts back west.

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    Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

    Most of the latest model tracks seem to be hinting at something dangerously close to a direct hit on the Miami area. I'm thinking that would probably be a bad outcome. Hopefully they keep moving east.
    Last edited by GrinCDXX; 09-06-2017 at 05:03 PM.

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    Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

    Quote Originally Posted by GrinCDXX View Post
    Most of the latest model tracks seem to be hinting at something dangerously close to a direct hit on the Miami area. I'm thinking that would probably be a bad outcome. Hopefully they keep moving east.
    Scarier is that the models are agreeing with each other...

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    Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

    This will be the first time multiple cat 4s or above make landfall in the US in the same season.

    Ever.

    But no, climate change isn't real so don't mention it in government reports.
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    Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

    Quote Originally Posted by alfablue View Post
    Scarier is that the models are agreeing with each other...
    Their average error at that range is close to 200 miles. Keep that in mind.
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    Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

    Quote Originally Posted by Kepler View Post
    This will be the first time multiple cat 4s or above make landfall in the US in the same season.

    Ever.

    But no, climate change isn't real so don't mention it in government reports.
    Yet there had been no major hurricane landfalls for the previous 12 years, a record amount of time without one hitting.
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    Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

    Quote Originally Posted by ScottK View Post
    Yet there had been no major hurricane landfalls for the previous 12 years, a record amount of time without one hitting.
    I'm in complete agreement with you. It's fictional. Please join me out on the water to show those scientists we're on to them.

    I may be a little late.
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  8. #288
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    Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

    3 hurricanes in Atlantic basin right now

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    Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

    Quote Originally Posted by ScottK View Post
    Their average error at that range is close to 200 miles. Keep that in mind.
    Would the error still be that high considering the relatively good agreement among most of the model tracks?

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    Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

    Quote Originally Posted by GrinCDXX View Post
    Would the error still be that high considering the relatively good agreement among most of the model tracks?
    Well, the 5-day forecast from the GFS that verifies today was off by about 300 miles, so yes.

    Model agreement does not necessarily mean they are all going to verify.
    Last edited by ScottK; 09-06-2017 at 06:46 PM.
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    Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

    Quote Originally Posted by ScottK View Post
    Their average error at that range is close to 200 miles. Keep that in mind.

    And?

    Normally, the models all range that much, too- so instead of a 400 mile target, it's down to 200 miles.

    Darned liberals.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ScottK View Post
    Well, the 5-day forecast from the GFS that verifies today was off by about 300 miles, so yes.

    Model agreement does not necessarily mean they are all going to verify.
    Was there a similar level of agreement five days ago? I honestly have no idea.

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    Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

    Perhaps most importantly, the European model agrees the situation could be bad for Miami.

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2017...icts-for-irma/

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    Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

    Quote Originally Posted by Kepler View Post
    I'm in complete agreement with you. It's fictional. Please join me out on the water to show those scientists we're on to them.

    I may be a little late.
    You're also assuming it will still be Category 4 or stronger at landfall in the US, if it even makes landfall in the US.
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    Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

    Quote Originally Posted by GrinCDXX View Post
    Perhaps most importantly, the European model agrees the situation could be bad for Miami.

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2017...icts-for-irma/
    And yesterday, the European model had the storm making landfall in Cuba then turning north and hitting the west coast of Florida.
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    Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

    Quote Originally Posted by GrinCDXX View Post
    Was there a similar level of agreement five days ago? I honestly have no idea.
    No.

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    Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...


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    Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

    Quote Originally Posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
    Just using the 2 maps on that page, when you look at the area around south Florida, you've got a range of nearly 400-500 miles in where the center could be, and also a range of more than 24 hours (The GFS has the storm there Sunday, the ECMWF Monday). That's not exactly what I'd call "agreement". Plus, as I stated already, agreement does not equal verification.
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    Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

    Quote Originally Posted by GrinCDXX View Post
    Was there a similar level of agreement five days ago? I honestly have no idea.
    Somewhat - http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/a...2017090112.png

    However, they all seemed to agree that at 120 hours (verification - 8am EDT today), the storm would be anywhere from 50-250 miles east or northeast of the the Leeward Islands. It was actually just west of St. Martin.
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    Re: 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

    Quote Originally Posted by ScottK View Post
    Just using the 2 maps on that page, when you look at the area around south Florida, you've got a range of nearly 400-500 miles in where the center could be, and also a range of more than 24 hours (The GFS has the storm there Sunday, the ECMWF Monday). That's not exactly what I'd call "agreement". Plus, as I stated already, agreement does not equal verification.
    Did a hurricane projection model touch you as a child? I'm not quite sure what your point with all your posts is. Should we ignore all the forecasts?
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