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Thread: The British Parliamentary election of June 8. Will she stay or go?

  1. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kepler View Post
    Wow.
    Oh it gets better: Sinn Fein say a Tory/DUP alliance would be a violation of the Good Friday Agreement.

    Basically, the NI Government is completely split and can't come to an agreement on how to proceed, the Tories gave them until June 26th or Westminster will intervene. Except Westminster, per the GFA, must remain completely impartial, can't do that if the DUP is part of the majority alliance. Whoops.

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    Re: The British Parliamentary election of June 8. Will she stay or go?

    Quote Originally Posted by bronconick View Post
    Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 1h1 hour ago

    The UK *literally initiated and completed an entire parliamentary election* in the time in between the GA-6 primary and runoff.

    Man, sometimes I wish our founding fathers had borrowed some parliamentary ideas for our constitution.
    Brits don't do primaries. That saves a whole bunch of time.

    We COULD do that, but that would entail returning to the smoke-filled room and the party bosses.
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    Re: The British Parliamentary election of June 8. Will she stay or go?

    Smoke-filled rooms would have prevented Donald Trump from becoming president.

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    Re: The British Parliamentary election of June 8. Will she stay or go?

    Quote Originally Posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
    Smoke-filled rooms would have prevented Donald Trump from becoming president.
    How many recent elections would have different candidates if the bosses picked the candidates?
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    Re: The British Parliamentary election of June 8. Will she stay or go?

    Clinton in 2008, I assume.
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    Re: The British Parliamentary election of June 8. Will she stay or go?

    Almost certainly.

    I mentioned I was young and dumb in 2004, even more so in '92, but I'm wondering if Clinton wouldn't have won the nomination back then either. Wasn't he a relative unknown at the time?

    Romney may have gotten yanked in 2012 in lieu of a sacrificial lamb. Romney I think would have had a good chance in 2016. Or at least a better chance.

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    Re: The British Parliamentary election of June 8. Will she stay or go?

    Mitt was and is never going to be POTUS. He just looks better next to Orange Droolius.
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    Re: The British Parliamentary election of June 8. Will she stay or go?

    So do you think Romney was the sacrificial lamb?

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    Re: The British Parliamentary election of June 8. Will she stay or go?

    Quote Originally Posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
    Almost certainly.

    I mentioned I was young and dumb in 2004, even more so in '92, but I'm wondering if Clinton wouldn't have won the nomination back then either. Wasn't he a relative unknown at the time?
    He was, but it was a strange year in that nobody of note really ran thinking that Bush was unbeatable coming off of the first Iraq war. So he ran against Tsongas, Gephardt, Harkin and Jerry Brown. Aside from Gephardt who was a stiff that made Dukakis look inspirational, there was really no establishment choice once Cuomo begged off for the 3rd straight time.
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    Re: The British Parliamentary election of June 8. Will she stay or go?

    Quote Originally Posted by joecct View Post
    How many recent elections would have different candidates if the bosses picked the candidates?
    Great question. Ignoring the ripple effect of what an earlier change would do downstream (guessing who the nominees would have been if we reverted beginning with election x), here are my guesses since the big change post-1968. * - Asterisks is a change. Bold -- my predicted winner.

    Code:
    Yr Dem              GOP
    72 Humphrey*        Nixon
    76 Kennedy*         Ford
    80 Carter           GHW Bush*
    84 Mondale          Reagan
    88 Bentsen*         GHW Bush
    92 Kerrey*          GHW Bush
    96 B Clinton        Dole
    00 Gore             Danforth*
    04 Gephardt*        GW Bush
    08 H Clinton*       McCain
    12 Obama            Romney
    16 H Clinton        J Bush*
    Last edited by Kepler; 06-12-2017 at 10:09 AM.
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    Re: The British Parliamentary election of June 8. Will she stay or go?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kepler View Post
    Great question. Ignoring the ripple effect of what an earlier change would do downstream (guessing who the nominees would have been if we reverted beginning with election x), here are my guesses since the big change post-1968. * - Asterisks is a change. Bold -- my predicted winner.

    Code:
    Yr Dem              GOP
    72 Humphrey*        Nixon
    76 Kennedy*         Ford
    80 Carter           GHW Bush*
    84 Mondale          Reagan
    88 Bentsen*         GHW Bush
    92 Kerrey*          GHW Bush
    96 B Clinton        Dole
    00 Gore             Danforth*
    04 Gephardt*        GW Bush
    08 H Clinton*       McCain
    12 Obama            Romney
    16 H Clinton        J Bush*
    Is GHW Bush eligible for a 3rd term?? If so, I know who the Ds are running in 2020.
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    Re: The British Parliamentary election of June 8. Will she stay or go?

    Quote Originally Posted by joecct View Post
    Is GHW Bush eligible for a 3rd term?? If so, I know who the Ds are running in 2020.
    It's not a third term. Remember, each election is considered the start of the return to smoke filled rooms, otherwise you'd have to make predictions about the administrations of alt-choices and that's too hard. Bush gets renominated in '92 because he's only had one term at that point. That he would have won in '80 is irrelevant in '92 (or '88) because the point of departure from the timeline for year x is x, not before x.

    Likewise, Obama can't run in '20* for the reason that he can't in OTL -- he's had his 2 terms.

    Bush wins the floor battle in '80 because the RNC knows trickle down is snake oil, so Reagan is shut down same as '76 by Ford in OTL. Reagan never gets the chance to muscle in on the Orange County money and put his own fix in because the primaries are still just beauty contests so nobody cares that he wins there.

    I am assuming that every incumbent with remaining eligibility is always re-upped, because the CW was incumbency is such an enormous advantage (something that may not still be true).

    * The really interesting question for this analysis is this: would Hillary be the smokefilled room nominee in '20? She might. Her people are the termites infesting the entire Democratic party structure at every level. Without the public oversight of the primary system she could easily have enough heft to put us all through it again.
    Last edited by Kepler; 06-12-2017 at 01:02 PM.
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    Re: The British Parliamentary election of June 8. Will she stay or go?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kepler View Post
    It's not a third term. Remember, each election is considered the start of the return to smoke filled rooms, otherwise you'd have to make predictions about the administrations of alt-choices and that's too hard. So Obama can't run in '20 for the reason that he can't in OTL -- he's had his 2 terms.

    Bush wins the floor battle in '80 because the RNC knows trickle down is snake oil, so Reagan is shut down same as '76.

    Reagan never gets the chance to muscle in on the Orange County money and put his own fix in because the primaries are still just beauty contests so nobody cares that he wins there. (Same goes for Clinton in 92).

    I am assuming that every incumbent with remaining eligibility is always re-upped, because the CW was incumbency is such an enormous advantage (something that may not still be true).
    Color me confused - 80, 88, 92. Isn't that 3 terms??
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  14. #94
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    Re: The British Parliamentary election of June 8. Will she stay or go?

    Quote Originally Posted by joecct View Post
    Color me confused - 80, 88, 92. Isn't that 3 terms??
    He lost the 80 primary bid. That returns him to a zero-count come 88.
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    Quote Originally Posted by joecct View Post
    Color me confused - 80, 88, 92. Isn't that 3 terms??
    Kepler's output had each election independent of all others. The 88 and 92 elections are based on what happened at the start of the actual cycle, not what would've happened based on earlier cycles. That's why Reagan is still in for 84, too.

    In other words, don't look at what he predicts for 80 to affect his predictions for 84, 88, or any subsequent years. View them all as independent.

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    Re: The British Parliamentary election of June 8. Will she stay or go?

    Quote Originally Posted by unofan View Post
    Kepler's output had each election independent of all others. The 88 and 92 elections are based on what happened at the start of the actual cycle, not what would've happened based on earlier cycles. That's why Reagan is still in for 84, too.

    In other words, don't look at what he predicts for 80 to affect his predictions for 84, 88, or any subsequent years. View them all as independent.
    Correct. That's what I was trying to say.

    That is not a map of a single alt timeline. It's a list of what would happen if each election was the departure point from OTL. You could do maps of each alt timeline, but especially for the early ones it would quickly evaporate into nested what ifs. e.g., if Kennedy wins in 76 does he f-ck up as bad as Carter, and if not then he's an incumbent with huge party power going up against a GOP still tainted by Watergate, so does he win again under circumstances 90% different from OTL 80? That's just too many what ifs for me.
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    Quote Originally Posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
    So do you think Romney was the sacrificial lamb?
    Yes. Do you remember that Republican field from 2012?

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    Re: The British Parliamentary election of June 8. Will she stay or go?

    Somebody is getting sacked and it could be Mrs. May.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...enfell-victims

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