Page 7 of 24 FirstFirst 1234567891011121314151617 ... LastLast
Results 121 to 140 of 465

Thread: 2017 Pairwise thread

  1. #121
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Posts
    788

    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Live Blogging Sun night:
    As of 6:33 CDT...
    WMU is losing, so they would fall to 6th, with Minnesota jumping to 4th.
    Q-pac leads St Lawrence, which is largely meaningless, since either will need to win ECAC to make the tourney anyway
    The other games are tied.

  2. #122
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Oct 2015
    Posts
    921

    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread


  3. #123
    Unworthy Admirer of Alice Cooper
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Location
    Wayne's Basement
    Posts
    649

    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by LordofBrewtown View Post
    Wasn't Cinci going to be problematic no matter what? I actually think that Western, Ohio St and Notre Dame is about as good as that site can hope for
    Better yet, Bowling Green wins and joins them. Ohio State would have to move up to at least 12 for that to happen, though.
    BGSU Class of 2017

  4. #124
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Oct 2015
    Posts
    921

    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Air Force can get in without the auto bid. With the bid they can finish as high as a 3-seed.
    UMD can still be #1 overall. I can't get Harvard past Denver (.0004 RPI) so their ceiling looks to be #2.
    Union can be #4 overall.
    Wisconsin needs the autobid; neither OSU or PSU do.

  5. #125
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Posts
    788

    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Air Force gets in with a semi-final win, it appears, if BC does not win the HE, and if either OSU or PSU loses on Thursday at the Joe.

    For NoDak to miss, they have to lose twice, BC has to win HE, and the Big 10 results have to be just enough to get PSU and OSU past NoDak on on RPI (one way is for OSU to win the tourney over Minnesota who beat PSU).

    #4 overall order:
    1- Western Michigan
    2- BU
    3- Minnesota

    In other words, if WMU wins out, its theirs. Next, if BU wins out its theirs. Next, Minn. After that, I assume Union, but I don't know about if Union needs WMU to lose in semis, or just finals......Answer: Union can get it with WMU winning its semi, but it depends on the right other results. For example, NoDak would have to beat UMD in the NCHC 3rd place game.
    Last edited by Numbers; 03-12-2017 at 09:57 PM.

  6. #126
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Posts
    788

    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    And, for those wondering about the 4 team HE pileup in the 2nd and 3rd bands....

    The only relief is from one of 2 things. Either BU gets the #4 overall, or ....
    2 of these 3 happen: Cornell wins its ECAC semi; Air Force wins AHA; Either PSU or OSU wins 2 (+) games.

  7. #127
    Super Serial
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Back to Comm. Ave
    Posts
    2,748

    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Numbers View Post
    And, for those wondering about the 4 team HE pileup in the 2nd and 3rd bands....

    The only relief is from one of 2 things. Either BU gets the #4 overall, or ....
    2 of these 3 happen: Cornell wins its ECAC semi; Air Force wins AHA; Either PSU or OSU wins 2 (+) games.
    Would it literally take no possible combinations of an OOC first round game for the committee to pair conference teams in the opening round?
    I was formerly a tasty 7-11 beverage. Now I'm a fan of defunct hockey teams.

  8. #128
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Posts
    788

    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by brassbonanza View Post
    Would it literally take no possible combinations of an OOC first round game for the committee to pair conference teams in the opening round?
    Correct. As far as we know, the committee AVOIDS, for example, HE vs HE, in the first round AT ALL COSTS. The only thing which would disrupt that would be, for example, 5 HE in the 2nd and 3rd bands. In that case, the only way to avoid such a matchup would be to switch bands, and that's even more anathema to the committee.

  9. #129
    Ofcl Riverhawk Radio Meteorologist
    Join Date
    Feb 2000
    Location
    South of Boston
    Posts
    8,918

    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Numbers View Post
    Air Force gets in with a semi-final win, it appears, if BC does not win the HE, and if either OSU or PSU loses on Thursday at the Joe.
    I can get BC in without winning HE - http://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairwi..._58c61faf2b870
    Charter Member of darin's "UML Seven"

    "I just hate Boston College to be perfectly honest'' -Ken Dorsey
    "It's time for my favorite NCAA tradition ... that's right, rooting against BC!" -Bill Simmons

  10. #130
    Also known as the Southern Dandaaay
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Posts
    2,709
    Quote Originally Posted by Numbers View Post
    And, for those wondering about the 4 team HE pileup in the 2nd and 3rd bands....

    The only relief is from one of 2 things. Either BU gets the #4 overall, or ....
    2 of these 3 happen: Cornell wins its ECAC semi; Air Force wins AHA; Either PSU or OSU wins 2 (+) games.
    Lowell can also reach #4 overall

  11. #131
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Location
    At the beach
    Posts
    4,047

    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Watch Quinnipiac come in and screw this whole thing up.
    YALE HOCKEY
    2013 National Champions

  12. #132
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Jul 1999
    Posts
    225

    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    I'm struggling a bit to duplicate some of CHN's possibilities, which means one of us is doing something wrong. Anyone stumble across the scenario that lets Western Michigan jump ahead of Harvard (and/or Duluth) for a #2 or #3 ranking?

  13. #133
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Feb 2000
    Location
    Waltham, MA
    Posts
    6,896

    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Patronick View Post
    Lowell can also reach #4 overall
    Technically possible since CHN Probability Matrix gives Lowell 0.8% chance of getting a 4th but extremely unlikely. The following scenario where BU, Minnesota, Western Michigan (loses 2 games), and Union all lose. UML is still in 5th, but only by 0.0001 RPI. You can tinker and I'm sure find how UML makes up that small deficit, but I wouldn't place any bets on this.

    http://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairwi..._58c6b44dadeb5

  14. #134
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Posts
    788

    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by LTsatch View Post
    Watch Quinnipiac come in and screw this whole thing up.
    That's my dream. With other associated results that leave NoDak out of the field.

  15. #135
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Posts
    788

    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by JimDahl View Post
    I'm struggling a bit to duplicate some of CHN's possibilities, which means one of us is doing something wrong. Anyone stumble across the scenario that lets Western Michigan jump ahead of Harvard (and/or Duluth) for a #2 or #3 ranking?
    I can't get to work, either. I looked at Harvard's schedule, and chose everyone on their schedule to lose, which should decrease their RPI by the limit, and I did the same for Western's schedule, and I can't get WMU any close than .003 in RPI.

    And, as far as I can see, WMU can't change the ComOpp part of either comparison.
    Last edited by Numbers; 03-13-2017 at 10:29 AM.

  16. #136
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Jul 1999
    Posts
    225
    Quote Originally Posted by Numbers View Post
    I can't get to work, either. I looked at Harvard's schedule, and chose everyone on their schedule to lose, which should decrease their RPI by the limit, and I did the same for Western's schedule, and I can't get WMU any close than .003 in RPI.
    I also don't see NoDak reaching #4 or #5. I hate going live with results that don't match other published results. I'll try reaching out to CHN and see if they have insight.

  17. #137
    Union Hockey fan for life
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    1,123

    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    From Jayson Moy:

    Here’s what I believe after this weekend’s action and by playing around with the PairWise Predictor.

    In:

    Big 10 – Minnesota

    ECAC – Harvard, Union

    Hockey East – Lowell, BU

    NCHC – Denver, UMD, Western Michigan

    WCHA – Winner of Bowling Green/Michigan Tech

    That makes nine teams in, leaving seven spots left.

    There are 15 teams for those seven spots

    Atlantic Hockey – Canisius, Air Force, Army, Robert Morris

    Big 10 – Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State

    ECAC – Cornell, Quinnipiac

    Hockey East – BC, Notre Dame, Providence

    NCHC – North Dakota

    Teams that need to win its Championship in order to get in (seven):

    Atlantic Hockey – Canisius, Army, Robert Morris

    Big 10 – Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State

    ECAC – Quinnipiac

    Teams that can still get in at-large (eight):

    Atlantic Hockey – Air Force (How? All top seeds win, except that one of Penn State or Ohio State must lose on Thursday and Air Force must win on Friday)

    Big 10 – Ohio State, Penn State

    ECAC – Cornell

    Hockey East – BC, Notre Dame, Providence

    NCHC – North Dakota
    http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/20...onday-edition/
    LET'S GO UNION DA DA DADADA

  18. #138
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Feb 2000
    Location
    Waltham, MA
    Posts
    6,896

    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Numbers View Post
    I can't get to work, either. I looked at Harvard's schedule, and chose everyone on their schedule to lose, which should decrease their RPI by the limit, and I did the same for Western's schedule, and I can't get WMU any close than .003 in RPI.

    And, as far as I can see, WMU can't change the ComOpp part of either comparison.
    I used the same line of thinking as you did and can't get WMU anywhere near to Harvard. I was equally skeptical of the 1% chance CHN gave Harvard to get the #1 overall seed but figured it out on the first try. http://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairwi..._58c6bc738c531

  19. #139
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Posts
    788

    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by JimDahl View Post
    I also don't see NoDak reaching #4 or #5. I hate going live with results that don't match other published results. I'll try reaching out to CHN and see if they have insight.
    Also true to me. I have a hard time finding a way for them past BU, WMU or UMinn

  20. #140
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Jul 1999
    Posts
    225

    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Ok, I'm working on it with CHN. I'm going to keep somewhat quiet until we've got it figured out for sure and agree, but meanwhile here's a preview of what I'm seeing:

    http://collegehockeyranked.com/forecast/pwrtournament/

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •