2017 Pairwise thread

[SteveO]

Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

I think I'll wait for Jayson's assessment...this guy knows.

"Since USCHO began the PairWise Rankings, we have correctly identified all of the teams that have been selected to the NCAA tournament. Five of the last six years, I am the only prognosticator to have correctly predicted the exact brackets for the NCAA tournament, meaning that I have predicted how the committee thought when putting together the brackets.

When you look at past history, it comes down to attendance and it doesn’t matter where the seeds are. What’s important is preserving the matchups that are made with teams outside of the Top 16 to those No. 1 seeds and then attendance. It doesn’t matter what the seeds are, just that you stay within that band. In other words, if you’re a second-seeded team from 5-8, you can go anywhere and play anyone, as long as the team you’re playing is 9-12." - Jayson Moy, Senior Writer, USCHO

[Scarlet]

Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

I think they'd send BU out west to Grand Forks and send Penn State to Cincinnati... Between UML and BU I think it'll come down to whoever is higher in the PWR... the worse one will probably end up in Fargo

Look, I know there isn't a lot of love for BU around these parts (unless we play Notre Dame in which case EVERYONE becomes our friend) but there's no need to send BU to a city in North Dakota where there isn't going to be any hockey played that weekend.

[Numbers]

Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

I find it strange that all the predictions here are using AQ1 & AQ2 yet Air Force is in the top 16 PWR. They are as legitimate to count in as any of the others in the 4th bracket or even upper 3rd bracket so unless they drop out of the top 16 they should be listed instead of using AQ. They could even fly into Grand Forks AFB and bus in with UND if UND makes the tournament.

I use AQ1 and AQ2 because those teams/conferences do not qualify for an at-large berth. USAF is 16th. They're not there yet.

Some posters would use AFA as a stand in for the AHA auto-qualifier at present, if they choose to identify the current leader.

AFA has a slight chance to be an at-large qualifier. CHN currently lists that as a 9% chance in their Monte Carlo simulator. That's actually higher than I would have given them credit for.

[Patman]

Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

Look, I know there isn't a lot of love for BU around these parts (unless we play Notre Dame in which case EVERYONE becomes our friend) but there's no need to send BU to a city in North Dakota where there isn't going to be any hockey played that weekend.

my fault, I assumed they were playing in GF... my bad

[ticapnews]

Look, I know there isn't a lot of love for BU around these parts (unless we play Notre Dame in which case EVERYONE becomes our friend) but there's no need to send BU to a city in North Dakota where there isn't going to be any hockey played that weekend.

I'm sure there will be hockey played by someone in Grand Forks that weekend.

[ticapnews]

Some posters would use AFA as a stand in for the AHA auto-qualifier at present, if they choose to identify the current leader.

AFA has a slight chance to be an at-large qualifier. CHN currently lists that as a 9% chance in their Monte Carlo simulator. That's actually higher than I would have given them credit for.

They're welcome to. I don't have a monopoly on this.

[manurespreader]

Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

They're welcome to. I don't have a monopoly on this.

I was able to get AF in at 15, even with a loss to Canisius in the title game. So I'm guessing the odds are somewhat better than 9%, though I'm not disputing the math. Also I think UND has to sweep St Cloud or they are on the bubble.

[Patman]

Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

I was able to get AF in at 15, even with a loss to Canisius in the title game. So I'm guessing the odds are somewhat better than 9%, though I'm not disputing the math. Also I think UND has to sweep St Cloud or they are on the bubble.

you still have to worry about the WCHA champ

[Numbers]

Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

I was able to get AF in at 15, even with a loss to Canisius in the title game. So I'm guessing the odds are somewhat better than 9%, though I'm not disputing the math. Also I think UND has to sweep St Cloud or they are on the bubble.

you still have to worry about the WCHA champ

Which means that Air Force has to come in at 14th, with a loss in the title game. In that case, the AHA and WCHA Champs would be 15th and 16th. Unless you meant that Canisius came in 14th in your simulation?

And, I think that you are likely right in that, in that case, all the other contenders have to fail, so NoDak has to oust SCSU, Providence takes down NoDame, etc..

[BC/HE]

Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

I use AQ1 and AQ2 because those teams/conferences do not qualify for an at-large berth. USAF is 16th. They're not there yet.

You could also use AQ1,AQ2,AQ3,AQ4,AQ5,AQ6 and eliminate anyone above 10. I think just using AQ1 and AQ2 is a snub of those two conferences but using AQ1 only is quite legitimate given the PWR of the WCHA leader. I can truly see a team like Northeastern winning Hockey East and finishing no higher than 14 or 15 so perhaps AQ3 is just as appropriate as AQ1/AQ2.

[manurespreader]

Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

Which means that Air Force has to come in at 14th, with a loss in the title game. In that case, the AHA and WCHA Champs would be 15th and 16th. Unless you meant that Canisius came in 14th in your simulation?

And, I think that you are likely right in that, in that case, all the other contenders have to fail, so NoDak has to oust SCSU, Providence takes down NoDame, etc..

yes but I think then it comes down to the AF vs Canisius game. AF wins and they no longer bump anyone out. So the only non top 16 team would be the WCHA. In other words, it's 50-50 for AF to get in, assuming they get to the championship game of AH.

[Numbers]

Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

yes but I think then it comes down to the AF vs Canisius game. AF wins and they no longer bump anyone out. So the only non top 16 team would be the WCHA. In other words, it's 50-50 for AF to get in, assuming they get to the championship game of AH.

And, i think there is a chance for them to get in if they sweep this week, win the semi and lose to Canisius. In other words, I think there is a 9% possibility according to CHN's PWR Probability Matrix, that AHA gets 2 teams in.

[Scarlet]

Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

Have they not announced the game times for the regionals or have I not been able to find it? I know the days, just not when.

[Patman]

Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

Have they not announced the game times for the regionals or have I not been able to find it? I know the days, just not when.

I'm wondering if this is like last year where they don't announce anything because they're trying to maximize for TV

[tape]

Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

Yeah they haven't been announcing which regionals are Fri-Sat and which are Sat-Sun until after conference tourneys are done for at least a few years now.