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2017 Pairwise thread

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  • Originally posted by Numbers View Post
    I can't get to work, either. I looked at Harvard's schedule, and chose everyone on their schedule to lose, which should decrease their RPI by the limit, and I did the same for Western's schedule, and I can't get WMU any close than .003 in RPI.
    I also don't see NoDak reaching #4 or #5. I hate going live with results that don't match other published results. I'll try reaching out to CHN and see if they have insight.

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    • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

      From Jayson Moy:

      Here’s what I believe after this weekend’s action and by playing around with the PairWise Predictor.

      In:

      Big 10 – Minnesota

      ECAC – Harvard, Union

      Hockey East – Lowell, BU

      NCHC – Denver, UMD, Western Michigan

      WCHA – Winner of Bowling Green/Michigan Tech

      That makes nine teams in, leaving seven spots left.

      There are 15 teams for those seven spots

      Atlantic Hockey – Canisius, Air Force, Army, Robert Morris

      Big 10 – Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State

      ECAC – Cornell, Quinnipiac

      Hockey East – BC, Notre Dame, Providence

      NCHC – North Dakota

      Teams that need to win its Championship in order to get in (seven):

      Atlantic Hockey – Canisius, Army, Robert Morris

      Big 10 – Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State

      ECAC – Quinnipiac

      Teams that can still get in at-large (eight):

      Atlantic Hockey – Air Force (How? All top seeds win, except that one of Penn State or Ohio State must lose on Thursday and Air Force must win on Friday)

      Big 10 – Ohio State, Penn State

      ECAC – Cornell

      Hockey East – BC, Notre Dame, Providence

      NCHC – North Dakota
      http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/20...onday-edition/
      LET'S GO UNION DA DA DADADA

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      • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

        Originally posted by Numbers View Post
        I can't get to work, either. I looked at Harvard's schedule, and chose everyone on their schedule to lose, which should decrease their RPI by the limit, and I did the same for Western's schedule, and I can't get WMU any close than .003 in RPI.

        And, as far as I can see, WMU can't change the ComOpp part of either comparison.
        I used the same line of thinking as you did and can't get WMU anywhere near to Harvard. I was equally skeptical of the 1% chance CHN gave Harvard to get the #1 overall seed but figured it out on the first try. http://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairwi..._58c6bc738c531

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        • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

          Originally posted by JimDahl View Post
          I also don't see NoDak reaching #4 or #5. I hate going live with results that don't match other published results. I'll try reaching out to CHN and see if they have insight.
          Also true to me. I have a hard time finding a way for them past BU, WMU or UMinn

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          • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

            Ok, I'm working on it with CHN. I'm going to keep somewhat quiet until we've got it figured out for sure and agree, but meanwhile here's a preview of what I'm seeing:

            http://collegehockeyranked.com/forecast/pwrtournament/

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            • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

              This many affect the WMU getting a #2/#3 seed issue.


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              • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

                Much better from CHN now.

                Jim Dahl,
                I have a question for you. Do Thursday's results offer any possibility of definite conclusions? In other words, Do PSU and OSU both winning shut AFA out of an at-large bid? Or, some other such thing?

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                • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

                  Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                  I can't get to work, either. I looked at Harvard's schedule, and chose everyone on their schedule to lose . . .
                  I hope nothing quite so drastic as that occurs. Other than the #4/#5 swapping we've seen recently, it seems like the top 4 tier is pretty well set, with reasonably different RPIs. Though with 3 of the 4 teams playing each other, clearly some losses are inevitable. For obvious reasons, I am rooting for Minnesota to move up to #4 by week's end.

                  Down lower, of course, the RPIs are so packed together that larger than I'd expect moves can happen based on just a game or two. I am surprised, for example, by the contention (above) that North Dakota not only falls out of the #3 seed level, but all the way out, if it does not win its tournament. I would argue that if you can win the NCHC tournament, your team is about the best there is. I don't want to see North Dakota fall into the #4 seed level, again because of what happens to the Crimson travel plans, and was starting to think they were pretty securely in the 9-12 group unless they decide to lose 2 this weekend. But perhaps not.
                  Last edited by Crimson on the Glass; 03-13-2017, 11:19 AM.

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                  • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

                    Originally posted by Crimson on the Glass View Post
                    I hope nothing quite so drastic as that occurs. Other than the #4/#5 swapping we've seen recently, it seems like the top 4 tier is pretty well set, with reasonably different RPIs. Though with 3 of the 4 teams playing each other, clearly some losses are inevitable. For obvious reasons, I am rooting for Minnesota to move up to #4 by week's end.

                    Down lower, of course, the RPIs are so packed together that larger than I'd expect moves can happen based on just a game or two. I am surprised, for example, by the contention (above) that North Dakota not only falls out of the #3 seed level, but all the way out, if it does not win its tournament. I would argue that if you can win the NCHC tournament, your team is about the best there is. I don't want to see North Dakota fall into the #4 seed level, again because of what happens to the Crimson travel plans, and was starting to think they were pretty securely in the 9-12 group unless they decide to lose 2 this weekend. But perhaps not.
                    Harvard would only go west to play UND if all three of WMU, DU, and UMD are 1s. If BU or Minnesota finish on the 1 line and UND on the 4, Harvard likely stays east unless it swaps BU and Harvard for attendance purposes.
                    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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                    • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

                      Originally posted by brassbonanza View Post
                      Harvard would only go west to play UND if all three of WMU, DU, and UMD are 1s.
                      Yes, am aware! It seems less like a perfect storm these days, and more like something that could actually happen.

                      I can't imagine anyone making an informed decision about attendance that would favor Harvard staying close to home. BU and UML outdraw the Crimson at Bright-Landry, regrettably.
                      Last edited by Crimson on the Glass; 03-13-2017, 11:34 AM.

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                      • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

                        Originally posted by Tater View Post
                        Technically possible since CHN Probability Matrix gives Lowell 0.8% chance of getting a 4th but extremely unlikely. The following scenario where BU, Minnesota, Western Michigan (loses 2 games), and Union all lose. UML is still in 5th, but only by 0.0001 RPI. You can tinker and I'm sure find how UML makes up that small deficit, but I wouldn't place any bets on this.

                        http://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairwi..._58c6b44dadeb5
                        http://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairwi..._58c60859c2e90
                        BS UMass Lowell 2015
                        PhD Georgia Institute of Technology 2020

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                        • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

                          Originally posted by Crimson on the Glass View Post
                          Yes, am aware! It seems less like a perfect storm these days, and more like something that could actually happen.

                          And I really can't imagine anyone making a decision about attendance that would favor Harvard staying close to home. BU and UML outdraw the Crimson at Bright-Landry, regrettably.
                          What would also throw a wrench into that is if Wisconsin or (far less likely) one of the Michigans wins the B1G, then UND missing completely becomes a real possibility, in the scenario that UND loses two and falls to the 4 line territory.
                          ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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                          • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

                            Percentage of making tourney
                            http://collegehockeyranked.com/forecast/pwrtournament/
                            Fly Eagles Fly!!!

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                            • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

                              Originally posted by JimDahl View Post
                              Ok, I'm working on it with CHN. I'm going to keep somewhat quiet until we've got it figured out for sure and agree, but meanwhile here's a preview of what I'm seeing:

                              http://collegehockeyranked.com/forecast/pwrtournament/
                              Does a loss and a tie by North Dakota change the numbers at all?
                              That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.

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                              • Originally posted by SJHovey View Post
                                Does a loss and a tie by North Dakota change the numbers at all?
                                Absolutely. Unfortunately, I keep those records by number of wins, so the 0 win scenario includes both loss+loss and loss+tie. Let me think if I can come up with an easy way to tease out that information.

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