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2017 Pairwise thread

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  • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Live Blogging Sun night:
    As of 6:33 CDT...
    WMU is losing, so they would fall to 6th, with Minnesota jumping to 4th.
    Q-pac leads St Lawrence, which is largely meaningless, since either will need to win ECAC to make the tourney anyway
    The other games are tied.

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    • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

      http://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/
      The new phone books are here!

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      • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

        Originally posted by LordofBrewtown View Post
        Wasn't Cinci going to be problematic no matter what? I actually think that Western, Ohio St and Notre Dame is about as good as that site can hope for
        Better yet, Bowling Green wins and joins them. Ohio State would have to move up to at least 12 for that to happen, though.
        BGSU Class of 2017

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        • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

          Air Force can get in without the auto bid. With the bid they can finish as high as a 3-seed.
          UMD can still be #1 overall. I can't get Harvard past Denver (.0004 RPI) so their ceiling looks to be #2.
          Union can be #4 overall.
          Wisconsin needs the autobid; neither OSU or PSU do.

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          • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

            Air Force gets in with a semi-final win, it appears, if BC does not win the HE, and if either OSU or PSU loses on Thursday at the Joe.

            For NoDak to miss, they have to lose twice, BC has to win HE, and the Big 10 results have to be just enough to get PSU and OSU past NoDak on on RPI (one way is for OSU to win the tourney over Minnesota who beat PSU).

            #4 overall order:
            1- Western Michigan
            2- BU
            3- Minnesota

            In other words, if WMU wins out, its theirs. Next, if BU wins out its theirs. Next, Minn. After that, I assume Union, but I don't know about if Union needs WMU to lose in semis, or just finals......Answer: Union can get it with WMU winning its semi, but it depends on the right other results. For example, NoDak would have to beat UMD in the NCHC 3rd place game.
            Last edited by Numbers; 03-12-2017, 09:57 PM.

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            • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

              And, for those wondering about the 4 team HE pileup in the 2nd and 3rd bands....

              The only relief is from one of 2 things. Either BU gets the #4 overall, or ....
              2 of these 3 happen: Cornell wins its ECAC semi; Air Force wins AHA; Either PSU or OSU wins 2 (+) games.

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              • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

                Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                And, for those wondering about the 4 team HE pileup in the 2nd and 3rd bands....

                The only relief is from one of 2 things. Either BU gets the #4 overall, or ....
                2 of these 3 happen: Cornell wins its ECAC semi; Air Force wins AHA; Either PSU or OSU wins 2 (+) games.
                Would it literally take no possible combinations of an OOC first round game for the committee to pair conference teams in the opening round?
                ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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                • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

                  Originally posted by brassbonanza View Post
                  Would it literally take no possible combinations of an OOC first round game for the committee to pair conference teams in the opening round?
                  Correct. As far as we know, the committee AVOIDS, for example, HE vs HE, in the first round AT ALL COSTS. The only thing which would disrupt that would be, for example, 5 HE in the 2nd and 3rd bands. In that case, the only way to avoid such a matchup would be to switch bands, and that's even more anathema to the committee.

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                  • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

                    Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                    Air Force gets in with a semi-final win, it appears, if BC does not win the HE, and if either OSU or PSU loses on Thursday at the Joe.
                    I can get BC in without winning HE - http://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairwi..._58c61faf2b870
                    Charter Member of darin's "UML Seven"

                    "I just hate Boston College to be perfectly honest'' -Ken Dorsey
                    "It's time for my favorite NCAA tradition ... that's right, rooting against BC!" -Bill Simmons

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                    • Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                      And, for those wondering about the 4 team HE pileup in the 2nd and 3rd bands....

                      The only relief is from one of 2 things. Either BU gets the #4 overall, or ....
                      2 of these 3 happen: Cornell wins its ECAC semi; Air Force wins AHA; Either PSU or OSU wins 2 (+) games.
                      Lowell can also reach #4 overall
                      Lowell Forever
                      Forever Lowell

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                      • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

                        Watch Quinnipiac come in and screw this whole thing up.
                        YALE HOCKEY
                        2013 National Champions

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                        • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

                          I'm struggling a bit to duplicate some of CHN's possibilities, which means one of us is doing something wrong. Anyone stumble across the scenario that lets Western Michigan jump ahead of Harvard (and/or Duluth) for a #2 or #3 ranking?

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                          • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

                            Originally posted by Patronick View Post
                            Lowell can also reach #4 overall
                            Technically possible since CHN Probability Matrix gives Lowell 0.8% chance of getting a 4th but extremely unlikely. The following scenario where BU, Minnesota, Western Michigan (loses 2 games), and Union all lose. UML is still in 5th, but only by 0.0001 RPI. You can tinker and I'm sure find how UML makes up that small deficit, but I wouldn't place any bets on this.

                            http://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairwi..._58c6b44dadeb5

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                            • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

                              Originally posted by LTsatch View Post
                              Watch Quinnipiac come in and screw this whole thing up.
                              That's my dream. With other associated results that leave NoDak out of the field.

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                              • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

                                Originally posted by JimDahl View Post
                                I'm struggling a bit to duplicate some of CHN's possibilities, which means one of us is doing something wrong. Anyone stumble across the scenario that lets Western Michigan jump ahead of Harvard (and/or Duluth) for a #2 or #3 ranking?
                                I can't get to work, either. I looked at Harvard's schedule, and chose everyone on their schedule to lose, which should decrease their RPI by the limit, and I did the same for Western's schedule, and I can't get WMU any close than .003 in RPI.

                                And, as far as I can see, WMU can't change the ComOpp part of either comparison.
                                Last edited by Numbers; 03-13-2017, 10:29 AM.

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