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Thread: 2017 Pairwise thread

  1. #201
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Today's games didn't close any possibilities, other than the obvious for Michigan and Michigan State. But, Air Force and BC's at-large scenarios became highly restricted--from 29% with a win for Air Force to <1%, and from 22% with a win for BC to 2%.

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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Jim, I think I count only 6144 scenarios left.

    4 x 4 x 4 x 4 x 2 x 4 x 3 where the last (x 3) is for the NCHC 3rd place game. Is that correct? And, that doesn't seem nearly as impossible to wade through.
    Last edited by Numbers; 03-16-2017 at 11:16 PM.

  3. #203
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Jim,

    I can't find the way to get AF in with at-large. What is the key?

  4. #204
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    Quote Originally Posted by Numbers View Post
    Jim, I think I count only 6144 scenarios left.

    4 x 4 x 4 x 4 x 2 x 4 x 3 where the last (x 3) is for the NCHC 3rd place game. Is that correct? And, that doesn't seem nearly as impossible to wade through.
    I think of there as being 17 games left, 16 of which have 2 possible outcomes and 1 of which has 3 possible outcomes. Or 2^16 * 3 = 196608.

  5. #205
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by JimDahl View Post
    I think of there as being 17 games left, 16 of which have 2 possible outcomes and 1 of which has 3 possible outcomes. Or 2^16 * 3 = 196608.
    Thanks. I don't know what was wrong with m counter. You are correct.

  6. #206
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    Quote Originally Posted by Numbers View Post
    Jim,

    I can't find the way to get AF in with at-large. What is the key?
    I don't have a ton of time to dig into why it works, but here's an example:
    https://goo.gl/04RfMu

    Passing NoDak in RPI, and thus PWR, seems important.

  7. #207
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by JimDahl View Post
    I don't have a ton of time to dig into why it works, but here's an example:
    https://goo.gl/04RfMu

    Passing NoDak in RPI, and thus PWR, seems important.
    Thanks. I missed the possibility of passing NoDak and I couldn't get them beyond OSU or PSU

  8. #208
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    To elaborate on the Air Force situation a little here....

    The scenarios where they qualify yet as an at-large are exactly as Jim linked, and then these adjustments also work:

    It doesn't seem to matter who wins WCHA.
    Either Ohio State or Penn State can win Big 10.

    But, that's it. AFA has to pass NoDak in RPI, and it's so tight that Minnesota or Wisconsin winning a game raises NoDak's RPI too much or lowers AF's RPI too much.

    ECAC and HE have to go exactly the way he wrote.

  9. #209
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    Quote Originally Posted by Numbers View Post
    To elaborate on the Air Force situation a little here....

    The scenarios where they qualify yet as an at-large are exactly as Jim linked, and then these adjustments also work:

    It doesn't seem to matter who wins WCHA.
    Either Ohio State or Penn State can win Big 10.

    But, that's it. AFA has to pass NoDak in RPI, and it's so tight that Minnesota or Wisconsin winning a game raises NoDak's RPI too much or lowers AF's RPI too much.

    ECAC and HE have to go exactly the way he wrote.
    Update - You're right. Though they can reach #14 in PWR in 23 of the 190,000 scenarios, they only seem to make the tournament in 4 of those.
    Last edited by JimDahl; 03-17-2017 at 10:49 AM.

  10. #210
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Has anyone run the 128 scenarios left (I think). What's Lowell's worst case with a win/loss?

  11. #211
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    Quote Originally Posted by LTI Alum View Post
    Has anyone run the 128 scenarios left (I think). What's Lowell's worst case with a win/loss?
    They are in if they lose. Might be in if they win


  12. #212

    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by LTI Alum View Post
    Has anyone run the 128 scenarios left (I think). What's Lowell's worst case with a win/loss?
    With a win:
    #4 - 10%
    #5 - 44%
    #6 - 46%

    With a loss:
    #8 - 25%
    #9 - 50%
    #10 - 25%

    They are 100% to make the Tournament

    (See Jim Dahl's College Hockey Ranked, College Hockey Tournament Possibilities, available at: http://collegehockeyranked.com/forecast/pwrtournament/.)
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  13. #213
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
    With a win:
    #4 - 10%
    #5 - 44%
    #6 - 46%

    With a loss:
    #8 - 25%
    #9 - 50%
    #10 - 25%

    They are 100% to make the Tournament

    (See Jim Dahl's College Hockey Ranked, College Hockey Tournament Possibilities, available at: http://collegehockeyranked.com/forecast/pwrtournament/.)
    Excellent! Thanks. Just 1 game left and anywhere from a 1 to a 3 seed.

  14. #214
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by LTI Alum View Post
    Excellent! Thanks. Just 1 game left and anywhere from a 1 to a 3 seed.
    Also looks to me like if Denver wins in the 3ed place game, they are the overall #1 but if Duluth wins and Denver loses, Duluth will be instead.
    I'm also thinking Wisconsin has a good chance at the auto bid because they are reasonably rested.
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  15. #215
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by manurespreader View Post
    Also looks to me like if Denver wins in the 3ed place game, they are the overall #1 but if Duluth wins and Denver loses, Duluth will be instead.
    I'm also thinking Wisconsin has a good chance at the auto bid because they are reasonably rested.
    I see you are right, that Denver and Duluth are really very close in RPI today. Is it the case that Western Michigan has to win to stay in the #1 tier? Or else idle Minnesota slides back in?

    As an aside, I am thinking that if Denver and Duluth both lose, that Harvard can win and still not go higher than its PWR #3 overall. But it could perhaps pick up more than half the first place poll votes, neither here nor there.

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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Crimson on the Glass View Post
    Is it the case that Western Michigan has to win to stay in the #1 tier?
    I believe a tie gets WMU up to the 1 line also. And if WMU doesn't take it, Lowell has the opportunity to as well.
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  17. #217
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    Quote Originally Posted by manurespreader View Post
    Also looks to me like if Denver wins in the 3ed place game, they are the overall #1 but if Duluth wins and Denver loses, Duluth will be instead.
    I'm also thinking Wisconsin has a good chance at the auto bid because they are reasonably rested.
    DU should tank to stay out of Fargo, that's a death match.

    r

  18. #218
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by cetihcra View Post
    DU should tank to stay out of Fargo, that's a death match.

    r
    Based on their lineup tonight, it seems they are. https://twitter.com/DU_Hockey/status/843169758275141633
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  19. #219
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by brassbonanza View Post
    Based on their lineup tonight, it seems they are. https://twitter.com/DU_Hockey/status/843169758275141633
    I am not by any stretch a NCHC follower, but if this kind of thing is happening, maybe there just should not be a 3rd place (consolation) game at all.

  20. #220
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Crimson on the Glass View Post
    I am not by any stretch a NCHC follower, but if this kind of thing is happening, maybe there just should not be a 3rd place (consolation) game at all.
    Bingo. And it appears WMU is skating 9 defenseman, two listed as forwards on their posted line sheet. Ridiculous.
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