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Thread: 2017 Pairwise thread

  1. #101
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    Quote Originally Posted by LTI Alum View Post
    Lowell would need to be a 1 or a 4 seed to play the early game because I think the 1s always play the early game. At any rate, I'll be there regardless of the time after taking the day off and driving +/- 200 Miles. Providence is easier for me. Nice Saturday afternoon probably 2 games, but probably would not be there Sunday night if Lowell was playing. Then I'm home watching on TV. Just like Worcester in 14 and Albany last year. Wait a minute. Maybe that's why they lost.
    That's why you need to take Monday off so you can be there in person. No slacking off as a fan!
    Last edited by riverchief1; 03-08-2017 at 07:44 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Patman View Post
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    *sniff* No one wants me

    I'm not anyone's anymore. No cheering in the press box after all.


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  3. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by riverchief1 View Post
    That's why you need to take Monday off so you can be there in person. No slacking off as a fan!
    This x 1000!!!

  4. #104
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Scarlet View Post
    This x 1000!!!
    Yup, you find a way to make it happen. Strategic use of vacation time, you suddenly come down with "hockey flu" Monday morning, or whatever. Just like a lot of people plan on taking the day after the Super Bowl off, if it's late NCAA game on a Sunday, just take Monday off if you can. No need to burn the candle at both ends.

    LTIalum missing that epic game vs. BC in 2014 is criminal. I really would have found a way to all of a sudden be sick Monday morning. I drove back and forth to Albany back-to-back days last year, even choreographed early Easter dinner so I could hit the road for the game (I do think Easter did affect attendance though as it was pretty bad on Sunday). I was beat by the time I got home but already had planned to take Monday off so all was good. You find a way to make it work.
    Last edited by riverchief1; 03-08-2017 at 07:46 PM.
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  5. #105
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by riverchief1 View Post
    Yup, you find a way to make it happen. Strategic use of vacation time, you suddenly come down with "hockey flu" Monday morning, or whatever. Just like a lot of people plan on taking the day after the Super Bowl off, if it's late NCAA game on a Sunday, just take Monday off if you can. No need to burn the candle at both ends.
    Yes. I've made it painfully clear as day to my boss/office that hockey is non-negotiable.

    Heck, I scheduled Friday 3/24 off way back in December when we were expected to be in Manchester (Sat/Sun) just in case and now it turns out I likely need it

  6. #106
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Well, let's crank this up with a few games left to be finished:
    Duluth vs Miami.....in OT
    Denver leading CC
    BSU....in OT
    AFA....leading comfortably.
    NoDak leading SCSU 4-2 with 7:00 to play.

    Current PWR:
    #1s: Denver, Duluth, Harvard, Minnesota
    #2s: WestMich, BU, Union, Lowell
    #3s: Penn St, NoDame, Prov, NoDak (and this will not change if NoDak prevails tonight)
    #4s: Cornell, Ohio State, AHA and WCHA Champs. (AFA still with a chance at an at-large.....)

    Minnesota would go east, and the #1 v #4 would need no tweaking: Denver vs AQ2, Duluth vs AQ1, Harvard vs OSU, Minnesota vs Cornell
    NoDak would stay in Fargo and would play one of BU, Union, UML; West Mich would play either PSU or NoDame in Cincinnati, and the rest would fit together any number of ways, depending on the committee's particular bias.

    Western Mich needs to win 2 in a row over Omaha to have a chance to regain their #1 seed from Minnesota. The difference in schedule means that WMU likely still controls its own destiny, however.

    And, even though NoDak is apparently going to win tonight, 2 losses tomorrow and Sunday to SCSU could still leave them out.

  7. #107
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Very interesting to see the Air Force Academy hanging on to the bubble with all the big boys. They are now sitting at 15. I suspect they could sneak in with an at-large if some of the teams above them slip up and get eliminated. I have so much respect for Coaches Seratorre and Miller. If they advance and you get a chance watch one of their games. Their work ethic is unparalleled.

    Also interesting to see the Irish stick it to the Friars. They are on the verge of becoming a two seed and looking like they could take the HE crown.
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by MagnessMan View Post
    Also interesting to see the Irish stick it to the Friars. They are on the verge of becoming a two seed and looking like they could take the HE crown.
    Don't hold your breath.

  9. #109
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by MagnessMan View Post
    Very interesting to see the Air Force Academy hanging on to the bubble with all the big boys. They are now sitting at 15. I suspect they could sneak in with an at-large if some of the teams above them slip up and get eliminated. I have so much respect for Coaches Seratorre and Miller. If they advance and you get a chance watch one of their games. Their work ethic is unparalleled.

    Also interesting to see the Irish stick it to the Friars. They are on the verge of becoming a two seed and looking like they could take the HE crown.
    Notre Dame has a big gap to cross to get to a #2 seed, and it would almost certainly require the HE crown to do so.

    AFA - I am interested in that one as well. Win tonight, and then lose the AHA final to Canisius, and they could end up 14th. Particularly if OSU splits its next 2 games, or Cornell loses again tonight.

    Also, one thing to watch here is the positioning of Wisconsin and Ohio State after tonight's games. They could BOTH be out of the top 14. However, IF THEY ARE BOTH OUT OF THE TOP 14, I would still give a 40% chance that one of them would eventually with the BIG Tournament, and that means that, even if every team above them wins out, one of those would still miss the NCAAs.
    Last edited by Numbers; 03-11-2017 at 09:46 AM.

  10. #110
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Numbers View Post
    NoDak would stay in Fargo and would play one of BU, Union, UML; West Mich would play either PSU or NoDame in Cincinnati, and the rest would fit together any number of ways, depending on the committee's particular bias..
    western would NOT play psu. currently you have 2 hea schools in both the 2 and 3 bands. western and union have to play pc (IN providence for attendence) or nd. bu and umlol would have to play psu or sioux (IN fargo).
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  11. #111
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by mookie1995 View Post
    western would NOT play psu. currently you have 2 hea schools in both the 2 and 3 bands. western and union have to play pc (IN providence for attendence) or nd. bu and umlol would have to play psu or sioux (IN fargo).

    You are correct, of course. I keep forgetting that NoDame is Hockey East. So, one HE team must be in each 2/3 contest....
    I would say, then...
    Fargo: NoDak vs BU (bracket integrity) in Fargo
    After that I would not know how to guess. Western only had 1400 fans last night IN ITS OWN BARN, so I don't think they are a good draw to Cincy. PSU and NoDame I don't know about.

  12. #112

    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Numbers View Post
    You are correct, of course. I keep forgetting that NoDame is Hockey East. So, one HE team must be in each 2/3 contest....
    I would say, then...
    Fargo: NoDak vs BU (bracket integrity) in Fargo
    After that I would not know how to guess. Western only had 1400 fans last night IN ITS OWN BARN, so I don't think they are a good draw to Cincy. PSU and NoDame I don't know about.
    I wouldn't put a lot of weight on attendance numbers this weekend. Western is on Spring Break, and their barn only seats about 3500 +/-. Heck, even North Dakota only had a little over 10,000 against St. Cloud last night, and Duluth and Denver both failed to crack 5,000 in attendance. If Cincinnati is an option for Western, it would make the most sense. Will they fill it up? No, but they would do better than any other current #2 seed.
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  13. #113
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Numbers View Post
    AFA - I am interested in that one as well. Win tonight, and then lose the AHA final to Canisius, and they could end up 14th. Particularly if OSU splits its next 2 games, or Cornell loses again tonight.
    I think another interesting aspect that hasn't been brought up yet - how high a ranking could Air Force get in the pairwise if they do win out/secure the Atlantic AQ? While it helps the bubble teams - what do possible matches look like with them in the 3 band (or the remote possibility of the 2 band)? In that scenario, North Dakota is likely a 4 (or out)...possibly sending Harvard to Fargo...wondering what other matchups might have to be switched/forced.

  14. #114
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    If the season ended today:

    1 Denver
    2 Duluth
    3 Harvard
    4 Western Michigan
    5 Boston U
    6 Minnesota
    7 Union
    8 Lowell
    9 Notre Dame
    10 North Dakota
    11 Providence
    12 Cornell
    13 Penn State
    14 Ohio State
    15 Air Force
    16 WCHA


    Fargo

    1 Denver vs 4 Air Force
    2 Minnesota vs 3 North Dakota

    Providence

    1 Harvard vs 4 Penn State
    2 Boston U vs 3 Providence

    Manchester

    1 Duluth vs 4 WCHA
    2 Lowell vs 3 Cornell

    Cincinnati

    1 Western Michigan vs 4 Ohio State
    2 Union vs 3 Notre Dame


    I'm not so sure I have this right... I have two HE schools playing each other in the first round, but solving that is tricky. I can't move Providence College because NoDak must play in Fargo, and moving the other 3 seeds around will inevitably result in a HE match up. I can't move BU to Manchester or Cinci because that would make another HE match up as well. The only possible solution I see without changing any team's seed is to send BU to Fargo and Minnesota to Providence, but would the committee really pass up on a Minnesota/NoDak playoff game?
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  15. #115
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    One thing we learned tonight is that BSU is out. We're left with BGU, Tech or State getting the AQ from the WCHA. We'll be down to two after tomorrow's game three. #37 in the PWR (Bowling Green) is through to the championship game next weekend--one win away from being #16.
    Last edited by MagnessMan; 03-12-2017 at 12:17 AM.
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by MagnessMan View Post
    One thing we learned tonight is that BSU is out. We're left with BGU, Tech or State getting the AQ from the WCHA. We'll be down to two after tomorrow's game three. #37 in the PWR (Bowling Green) is through to the championship game next weekend--one win away from being #16.
    BG has significantly upped their game the last month or so. Don't ask me why it took so long but they are a vastly different team than early, the same can generally be said for all the three WCHA teams. they are a lot better lately.
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  17. #117
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Critical Thinker View Post
    If the season ended today:

    1 Denver
    2 Duluth
    3 Harvard
    4 Western Michigan
    5 Boston U
    6 Minnesota
    7 Union
    8 Lowell
    9 Notre Dame
    10 North Dakota
    11 Providence
    12 Cornell
    13 Penn State
    14 Ohio State
    15 Air Force
    16 WCHA


    Fargo

    1 Denver vs 4 Air Force
    2 Minnesota vs 3 North Dakota

    Providence

    1 Harvard vs 4 Penn State
    2 Boston U vs 3 Providence

    Manchester

    1 Duluth vs 4 WCHA
    2 Lowell vs 3 Cornell

    Cincinnati

    1 Western Michigan vs 4 Ohio State
    2 Union vs 3 Notre Dame


    I'm not so sure I have this right... I have two HE schools playing each other in the first round, but solving that is tricky. I can't move Providence College because NoDak must play in Fargo, and moving the other 3 seeds around will inevitably result in a HE match up. I can't move BU to Manchester or Cinci because that would make another HE match up as well. The only possible solution I see without changing any team's seed is to send BU to Fargo and Minnesota to Providence, but would the committee really pass up on a Minnesota/NoDak playoff game?
    HI CT,

    The first thing is a glitch on score updates. The Minnesota game last night was a tie, won by MSU in a shootout, but to the NCAA, that's a tie. And, it makes Minn 5th and BU 6th in the PWR.

    That being said, about the 2nd and 3rd bands.... The committee is required to separate the HE schools, so yes, NCAA would forego a MN/NoDak matchup. That won't matter in Fargo - the place is sold out.

    That would mean the likely matchups would be:
    Union vs NoDame (7 v 9) in Cincinnati
    Lowell or BU vs NoDak (6 or 8 v 10) in Fargo
    BU or Lowell vs Cornell (8 or 6 v 12) in Manchester
    Minnesota vs Providence (5 v 11) in Providence

    My preference for 'fairness' would be that Lowell, as the #8, go to Fargo.
    Also, if you wish, you can change the Manchester and Providence games.

    With this PWR, Cincinnati is going to be a hollow sounding barn.

    Final Edit: The placement of the WCHA and AHA teams would be up for argument as well. If, for example, Air Force and Bowling Green are the victors, then the difference in the strength of those 2 schools suggests that Denver, and #1 overall, play BGSU.

    And, if Western Michigan ends up 4th, the committee's choice of locations for Denver and Duluth is going to be interesting, because their own guidelines suggest Denver to Fargo, and then Duluth to Cincinnati. Which would leave Cincinnati even more empty. Ha Ha to the NCAA
    Last edited by Numbers; 03-12-2017 at 07:08 AM.

  18. #118
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    One of the things that needs to be looked at closely now is the possibilities for flipping PWR comparisons that are still left.

    Some of the most critical are for those on the bubble.

    Air Force could easily flip the comparison with tOSU since they are virtually neck and neck in RPI. An AFA title and an Ohio State loss could do that.
    One that depends on the outcome of a game tonight happening is BC vs. Notre Dame on Friday if UNH beats Lowell tonight. A BC win flips that due to head to head.

    These are examples that could affect placing for those last few spots. Any others that are as important in moving teams up or down in those positions?

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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Numbers View Post
    That would mean the likely matchups would be:
    Union vs NoDame (7 v 9) in Cincinnati

    With this PWR, Cincinnati is going to be a hollow sounding barn.


    And, if Western Michigan ends up 4th, the committee's choice of locations for Denver and Duluth is going to be interesting, because their own guidelines suggest Denver to Fargo, and then Duluth to Cincinnati. Which would leave Cincinnati even more empty. Ha Ha to the NCAA
    Wasn't Cinci going to be problematic no matter what? I actually think that Western, Ohio St and Notre Dame is about as good as that site can hope for

  20. #120
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by BC/HE View Post
    One of the things that needs to be looked at closely now is the possibilities for flipping PWR comparisons that are still left.

    Some of the most critical are for those on the bubble.

    Air Force could easily flip the comparison with tOSU since they are virtually neck and neck in RPI. An AFA title and an Ohio State loss could do that.
    One that depends on the outcome of a game tonight happening is BC vs. Notre Dame on Friday if UNH beats Lowell tonight. A BC win flips that due to head to head.

    These are examples that could affect placing for those last few spots. Any others that are as important in moving teams up or down in those positions?
    Never mind flipping individual comparisons. Look at the RPI gaps. From Lowell at 8 to BC at 16 is a pretty small gap. Leave Lowell out of that and....

    NoDame (9) 5501
    Air Force (15) 5430

    That's enough hash, with the Big 10 teams potentially winning 3 games, and NoDak potentially losing 2 (NCHC has 3rd place game), to say that anything can happen in the middle of that, yet. It's simply not closely enough defined at this point to pick out particular comparisons.

    Look higher:
    Minn, WMU, BU and Union are all close enough that any could grab the #4. All of the first 3 of those will almost certainly fall in the 4-8 range. But, again, it's too tight to pick out individual comparisons yet.

    Now, if, say, WMU loses tonight, then they are out of the running for the #4 (likely, anyway), and things get a little better defined. But, as of RIGHT NOW, we just need to await results.

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