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Thread: 2017 Pairwise thread

  1. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by Numbers View Post
    Some posters would use AFA as a stand in for the AHA auto-qualifier at present, if they choose to identify the current leader.

    AFA has a slight chance to be an at-large qualifier. CHN currently lists that as a 9% chance in their Monte Carlo simulator. That's actually higher than I would have given them credit for.
    They're welcome to. I don't have a monopoly on this.

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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ticapnews View Post
    They're welcome to. I don't have a monopoly on this.
    I was able to get AF in at 15, even with a loss to Canisius in the title game. So I'm guessing the odds are somewhat better than 9%, though I'm not disputing the math. Also I think UND has to sweep St Cloud or they are on the bubble.
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by manurespreader View Post
    I was able to get AF in at 15, even with a loss to Canisius in the title game. So I'm guessing the odds are somewhat better than 9%, though I'm not disputing the math. Also I think UND has to sweep St Cloud or they are on the bubble.
    you still have to worry about the WCHA champ
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by manurespreader View Post
    I was able to get AF in at 15, even with a loss to Canisius in the title game. So I'm guessing the odds are somewhat better than 9%, though I'm not disputing the math. Also I think UND has to sweep St Cloud or they are on the bubble.
    Quote Originally Posted by Patman View Post
    you still have to worry about the WCHA champ
    Which means that Air Force has to come in at 14th, with a loss in the title game. In that case, the AHA and WCHA Champs would be 15th and 16th. Unless you meant that Canisius came in 14th in your simulation?

    And, I think that you are likely right in that, in that case, all the other contenders have to fail, so NoDak has to oust SCSU, Providence takes down NoDame, etc..

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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ticapnews View Post
    I use AQ1 and AQ2 because those teams/conferences do not qualify for an at-large berth. USAF is 16th. They're not there yet.
    You could also use AQ1,AQ2,AQ3,AQ4,AQ5,AQ6 and eliminate anyone above 10. I think just using AQ1 and AQ2 is a snub of those two conferences but using AQ1 only is quite legitimate given the PWR of the WCHA leader. I can truly see a team like Northeastern winning Hockey East and finishing no higher than 14 or 15 so perhaps AQ3 is just as appropriate as AQ1/AQ2.

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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Numbers View Post
    Which means that Air Force has to come in at 14th, with a loss in the title game. In that case, the AHA and WCHA Champs would be 15th and 16th. Unless you meant that Canisius came in 14th in your simulation?

    And, I think that you are likely right in that, in that case, all the other contenders have to fail, so NoDak has to oust SCSU, Providence takes down NoDame, etc..
    yes but I think then it comes down to the AF vs Canisius game. AF wins and they no longer bump anyone out. So the only non top 16 team would be the WCHA. In other words, it's 50-50 for AF to get in, assuming they get to the championship game of AH.
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by manurespreader View Post
    yes but I think then it comes down to the AF vs Canisius game. AF wins and they no longer bump anyone out. So the only non top 16 team would be the WCHA. In other words, it's 50-50 for AF to get in, assuming they get to the championship game of AH.
    And, i think there is a chance for them to get in if they sweep this week, win the semi and lose to Canisius. In other words, I think there is a 9% possibility according to CHN's PWR Probability Matrix, that AHA gets 2 teams in.

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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Have they not announced the game times for the regionals or have I not been able to find it? I know the days, just not when.

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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Scarlet View Post
    Have they not announced the game times for the regionals or have I not been able to find it? I know the days, just not when.
    I'm wondering if this is like last year where they don't announce anything because they're trying to maximize for TV
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Yeah they haven't been announcing which regionals are Fri-Sat and which are Sat-Sun until after conference tourneys are done for at least a few years now.

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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by tape View Post
    Yeah they haven't been announcing which regionals are Fri-Sat and which are Sat-Sun until after conference tourneys are done for at least a few years now.
    The game time info hasn't been announced yet. The days were announced quite some time ago. Fargo and Providence are Fri-Sat, Manchester and Cincinnati are Sat-Sun: http://www.uscho.com/ncaa/mens-divis...aa-tournament/
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    I sure hope the regional final from Manchester is 8:00 on Sunday night. Nothing better for fans than a Sunday night game that gets over around 11. Convenient for flights, hotel reservations and people who need to be at work early Monday. They better not do something reasonable, like have the Sunday games in Manchester and Cincinnati during the day.

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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Those that go to Providence/Fargo will more than likely take Friday off, because you know we're getting another 2pm day game. And the UML fans said they would be bringing a much bigger contingent of fans than BU ever would so I'm expecting all of them to be not working so they go. So instead of taking Friday off, you Monday off. What's the big deal?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Scarlet View Post
    Those that go to Providence/Fargo will more than likely take Friday off, because you know we're getting another 2pm day game. And the UML fans said they would be bringing a much bigger contingent of fans than BU ever would so I'm expecting all of them to be not working so they go. So instead of taking Friday off, you Monday off. What's the big deal?
    Ticap isn't one of ours as far as I know.... I know I wouldn't do this because I don't have the time to take but I know if it were noon games for each I could go screaming out of work Friday night and then back to my house by 1-2 am Monday... but I don't think they'll announce until the previous Sunday so none of this planning even matters.

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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Here's Jim Dahl's latest Pairwise projections. Pretty scary for several teams.

    http://blog.collegehockeyranked.com/...ament-outlook/
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Patman View Post
    Ticap isn't one of ours as far as I know.... I know I wouldn't do this because I don't have the time to take but I know if it were noon games for each I could go screaming out of work Friday night and then back to my house by 1-2 am Monday... but I don't think they'll announce until the previous Sunday so none of this planning even matters.
    He's a Maine fan. And was commenting on the fact that the last regional final game could be Sunday night, thereby forcing fans who want to go to have to take Monday off. Was just trying to point out for those regionals you take Monday as opposed to Friday if you're traveling. Also, my comment was more for all the UML fans bragging that they would bring more fans to Manchester than BU, thereby cementing the reason BU should go west. While I don't deny they will bring folks, I would like to see how large the contingent of fans will be if there is a 2pm Friday afternoon game. They'd have to take the day off. Or part of the day. We're all fortunate here that Providence and Manchester are easy driving distances but if west teams have to travel here, they're going to have to take a day off regardless.

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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Scarlet View Post
    He's a Maine fan. And was commenting on the fact that the last regional final game could be Sunday night, thereby forcing fans who want to go to have to take Monday off. Was just trying to point out for those regionals you take Monday as opposed to Friday if you're traveling. Also, my comment was more for all the UML fans bragging that they would bring more fans to Manchester than BU, thereby cementing the reason BU should go west. While I don't deny they will bring folks, I would like to see how large the contingent of fans will be if there is a 2pm Friday afternoon game. They'd have to take the day off. Or part of the day. We're all fortunate here that Providence and Manchester are easy driving distances but if west teams have to travel here, they're going to have to take a day off regardless.
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by UML Puck Hawk View Post
    He's also Priceless for those wondering (I think)
    Wait. Priceless and Ticap are the same poster? really...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Numbers View Post
    Wait. Priceless and Ticap are the same poster? really...
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Scarlet View Post
    He's a Maine fan. And was commenting on the fact that the last regional final game could be Sunday night, thereby forcing fans who want to go to have to take Monday off. Was just trying to point out for those regionals you take Monday as opposed to Friday if you're traveling. Also, my comment was more for all the UML fans bragging that they would bring more fans to Manchester than BU, thereby cementing the reason BU should go west. While I don't deny they will bring folks, I would like to see how large the contingent of fans will be if there is a 2pm Friday afternoon game. They'd have to take the day off. Or part of the day. We're all fortunate here that Providence and Manchester are easy driving distances but if west teams have to travel here, they're going to have to take a day off regardless.
    Lowell would need to be a 1 or a 4 seed to play the early game because I think the 1s always play the early game. At any rate, I'll be there regardless of the time after taking the day off and driving +/- 200 Miles. Providence is easier for me. Nice Saturday afternoon probably 2 games, but probably would not be there Sunday night if Lowell was playing. Then I'm home watching on TV. Just like Worcester in 14 and Albany last year. Wait a minute. Maybe that's why they lost.

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