Originally posted by leswp1
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2017 Pairwise thread
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BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09
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Re: 2017 Pairwise thread
Originally posted by Riz View PostWell... they'd likely have to face the #1 team in the country in NCAA tournament if that's any consolation. Also, this is probably the last year that a team in the Big-10 could have one good weekend and a terrible season and get into the NCAAs so there's that.
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Re: 2017 Pairwise thread
So correct me if i'm wrong here. If PSU loses tonight they are essentially out. Same for OSU. If UND wins one game this weekend, they will be a 3, and if they lose both they will likely be a 4 seed and that means all hell breaks loose because that means DU will not be in Fargo. AF wins out they are a three. WMU has to win one this weekend to get a 1. ? And BC could cause serious headaches by beating BU. Some great viewing for sure.MTU: Three time NCAA champions.
It never get's easier, you just go faster. -Greg Lemond
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Re: 2017 Pairwise thread
Originally posted by manurespreader View PostSo correct me if i'm wrong here. If PSU loses tonight they are essentially out. Same for OSU. If UND wins one game this weekend, they will be a 3, and if they lose both they will likely be a 4 seed and that means all hell breaks loose because that means DU will not be in Fargo. AF wins out they are a three. WMU has to win one this weekend to get a 1. ? And BC could cause serious headaches by beating BU. Some great viewing for sure.
PSU has apparently a 25% or so chance to get in, even with a loss.
OSU less than that, but it's not hopeless.
NoDak will be a 3 with a win, except for a very slight chance (less than 1%). Tie in the 3rd place game would be interesting. Lose 2 and it's more likely than not they are the 4th seed, and you are correct - Denver and Duluth couldn't go to Fargo.
AF is very very likely a 3 with 2 wins.
WMU: Win 2 and they are #4 overall. Win 1 and it's a 50% proposition for them. Depends on BU and Minn
BC: Right. If they win against BU, it really shakes things up.
And, apparently there is a scenario where BC is in with a loss. The reason for that is that the BC/Providence comparison is the ONLY ONE on the whole chart where the lower team in RPI wins the compare. So, BC slips ahead of Providence, and the RPI gap in the entire table falls right between Prov at #15 in RPI and BC at #16, and it's a huge gap. Every one on the top side qualifies, and every below misses out. But, BC steals the Prov compare, and takes the last spot. This is a very detailed scenario, because the result has the feature that, although Prov has an RPI about .0100 better than BC, they still lose the compare to everyone above them based on RPI alone. If any of those teams comes out with an RPI between Prov and BC, then Prov wins the compare with that team (Team X), but BC loses it on RPI, and that leaves PROV and BC tied in the full table, and BC loses that tiebreak on RPI basis.Last edited by Numbers; 03-16-2017, 09:20 AM.
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Re: 2017 Pairwise thread
Today's games didn't close any possibilities, other than the obvious for Michigan and Michigan State. But, Air Force and BC's at-large scenarios became highly restricted--from 29% with a win for Air Force to <1%, and from 22% with a win for BC to 2%.
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Originally posted by Numbers View PostJim, I think I count only 6144 scenarios left.
4 x 4 x 4 x 4 x 2 x 4 x 3 where the last (x 3) is for the NCHC 3rd place game. Is that correct? And, that doesn't seem nearly as impossible to wade through.
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Re: 2017 Pairwise thread
Originally posted by JimDahl View PostI don't have a ton of time to dig into why it works, but here's an example:
https://goo.gl/04RfMu
Passing NoDak in RPI, and thus PWR, seems important.
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Re: 2017 Pairwise thread
To elaborate on the Air Force situation a little here....
The scenarios where they qualify yet as an at-large are exactly as Jim linked, and then these adjustments also work:
It doesn't seem to matter who wins WCHA.
Either Ohio State or Penn State can win Big 10.
But, that's it. AFA has to pass NoDak in RPI, and it's so tight that Minnesota or Wisconsin winning a game raises NoDak's RPI too much or lowers AF's RPI too much.
ECAC and HE have to go exactly the way he wrote.
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Originally posted by Numbers View PostTo elaborate on the Air Force situation a little here....
The scenarios where they qualify yet as an at-large are exactly as Jim linked, and then these adjustments also work:
It doesn't seem to matter who wins WCHA.
Either Ohio State or Penn State can win Big 10.
But, that's it. AFA has to pass NoDak in RPI, and it's so tight that Minnesota or Wisconsin winning a game raises NoDak's RPI too much or lowers AF's RPI too much.
ECAC and HE have to go exactly the way he wrote.Last edited by JimDahl; 03-17-2017, 10:49 AM.
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