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2017 Pairwise thread

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  • Originally posted by leswp1 View Post
    Clearly what the previous conference was like is irrelevant to what is happening now. Basically the teams can all lay and egg and still get into the playoffs so... Still doesn't seem right.
    That's up to the conference
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    • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

      Originally posted by Riz View Post
      Well... they'd likely have to face the #1 team in the country in NCAA tournament if that's any consolation. Also, this is probably the last year that a team in the Big-10 could have one good weekend and a terrible season and get into the NCAAs so there's that.
      Correct. Notre Dame joins next year, and in the Conference Tournament, only the Reg Season champ will get a bye. The others play 2 out of 3 at campus sites the first week. Semi Finals on campus (single game) 2nd week. Championship (single game) 3rd week. Plus I am guessing it will be a full home/home regular season, so 24-games. That means that conference play will require 15 weeks, where it only requires 11 now.

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      • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

        So correct me if i'm wrong here. If PSU loses tonight they are essentially out. Same for OSU. If UND wins one game this weekend, they will be a 3, and if they lose both they will likely be a 4 seed and that means all hell breaks loose because that means DU will not be in Fargo. AF wins out they are a three. WMU has to win one this weekend to get a 1. ? And BC could cause serious headaches by beating BU. Some great viewing for sure.
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        • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

          Originally posted by manurespreader View Post
          So correct me if i'm wrong here. If PSU loses tonight they are essentially out. Same for OSU. If UND wins one game this weekend, they will be a 3, and if they lose both they will likely be a 4 seed and that means all hell breaks loose because that means DU will not be in Fargo. AF wins out they are a three. WMU has to win one this weekend to get a 1. ? And BC could cause serious headaches by beating BU. Some great viewing for sure.
          Basically correct.
          PSU has apparently a 25% or so chance to get in, even with a loss.
          OSU less than that, but it's not hopeless.
          NoDak will be a 3 with a win, except for a very slight chance (less than 1%). Tie in the 3rd place game would be interesting. Lose 2 and it's more likely than not they are the 4th seed, and you are correct - Denver and Duluth couldn't go to Fargo.
          AF is very very likely a 3 with 2 wins.
          WMU: Win 2 and they are #4 overall. Win 1 and it's a 50% proposition for them. Depends on BU and Minn
          BC: Right. If they win against BU, it really shakes things up.


          And, apparently there is a scenario where BC is in with a loss. The reason for that is that the BC/Providence comparison is the ONLY ONE on the whole chart where the lower team in RPI wins the compare. So, BC slips ahead of Providence, and the RPI gap in the entire table falls right between Prov at #15 in RPI and BC at #16, and it's a huge gap. Every one on the top side qualifies, and every below misses out. But, BC steals the Prov compare, and takes the last spot. This is a very detailed scenario, because the result has the feature that, although Prov has an RPI about .0100 better than BC, they still lose the compare to everyone above them based on RPI alone. If any of those teams comes out with an RPI between Prov and BC, then Prov wins the compare with that team (Team X), but BC loses it on RPI, and that leaves PROV and BC tied in the full table, and BC loses that tiebreak on RPI basis.
          Last edited by Numbers; 03-16-2017, 09:20 AM.

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          • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

            A loss here greatly diminishes Ohio State's chances. They would need for all favorites to win the respective conference tournaments.

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            • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

              Today's games didn't close any possibilities, other than the obvious for Michigan and Michigan State. But, Air Force and BC's at-large scenarios became highly restricted--from 29% with a win for Air Force to <1%, and from 22% with a win for BC to 2%.

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              • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

                Jim, I think I count only 6144 scenarios left.

                4 x 4 x 4 x 4 x 2 x 4 x 3 where the last (x 3) is for the NCHC 3rd place game. Is that correct? And, that doesn't seem nearly as impossible to wade through.
                Last edited by Numbers; 03-16-2017, 11:16 PM.

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                • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

                  Jim,

                  I can't find the way to get AF in with at-large. What is the key?

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                  • Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                    Jim, I think I count only 6144 scenarios left.

                    4 x 4 x 4 x 4 x 2 x 4 x 3 where the last (x 3) is for the NCHC 3rd place game. Is that correct? And, that doesn't seem nearly as impossible to wade through.
                    I think of there as being 17 games left, 16 of which have 2 possible outcomes and 1 of which has 3 possible outcomes. Or 2^16 * 3 = 196608.

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                    • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

                      Originally posted by JimDahl View Post
                      I think of there as being 17 games left, 16 of which have 2 possible outcomes and 1 of which has 3 possible outcomes. Or 2^16 * 3 = 196608.
                      Thanks. I don't know what was wrong with m counter. You are correct.

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                      • Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                        Jim,

                        I can't find the way to get AF in with at-large. What is the key?
                        I don't have a ton of time to dig into why it works, but here's an example:
                        https://goo.gl/04RfMu

                        Passing NoDak in RPI, and thus PWR, seems important.

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                        • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

                          Originally posted by JimDahl View Post
                          I don't have a ton of time to dig into why it works, but here's an example:
                          https://goo.gl/04RfMu

                          Passing NoDak in RPI, and thus PWR, seems important.
                          Thanks. I missed the possibility of passing NoDak and I couldn't get them beyond OSU or PSU

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                          • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

                            To elaborate on the Air Force situation a little here....

                            The scenarios where they qualify yet as an at-large are exactly as Jim linked, and then these adjustments also work:

                            It doesn't seem to matter who wins WCHA.
                            Either Ohio State or Penn State can win Big 10.

                            But, that's it. AFA has to pass NoDak in RPI, and it's so tight that Minnesota or Wisconsin winning a game raises NoDak's RPI too much or lowers AF's RPI too much.

                            ECAC and HE have to go exactly the way he wrote.

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                            • Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                              To elaborate on the Air Force situation a little here....

                              The scenarios where they qualify yet as an at-large are exactly as Jim linked, and then these adjustments also work:

                              It doesn't seem to matter who wins WCHA.
                              Either Ohio State or Penn State can win Big 10.

                              But, that's it. AFA has to pass NoDak in RPI, and it's so tight that Minnesota or Wisconsin winning a game raises NoDak's RPI too much or lowers AF's RPI too much.

                              ECAC and HE have to go exactly the way he wrote.
                              Update - You're right. Though they can reach #14 in PWR in 23 of the 190,000 scenarios, they only seem to make the tournament in 4 of those.
                              Last edited by JimDahl; 03-17-2017, 10:49 AM.

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                              • Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

                                Has anyone run the 128 scenarios left (I think). What's Lowell's worst case with a win/loss?

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