Originally posted by Numbers
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2017 Pairwise thread
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Re: 2017 Pairwise thread
From Jayson Moy:
Here’s what I believe after this weekend’s action and by playing around with the PairWise Predictor.
In:
Big 10 – Minnesota
ECAC – Harvard, Union
Hockey East – Lowell, BU
NCHC – Denver, UMD, Western Michigan
WCHA – Winner of Bowling Green/Michigan Tech
That makes nine teams in, leaving seven spots left.
There are 15 teams for those seven spots
Atlantic Hockey – Canisius, Air Force, Army, Robert Morris
Big 10 – Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State
ECAC – Cornell, Quinnipiac
Hockey East – BC, Notre Dame, Providence
NCHC – North Dakota
Teams that need to win its Championship in order to get in (seven):
Atlantic Hockey – Canisius, Army, Robert Morris
Big 10 – Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State
ECAC – Quinnipiac
Teams that can still get in at-large (eight):
Atlantic Hockey – Air Force (How? All top seeds win, except that one of Penn State or Ohio State must lose on Thursday and Air Force must win on Friday)
Big 10 – Ohio State, Penn State
ECAC – Cornell
Hockey East – BC, Notre Dame, Providence
NCHC – North DakotaLET'S GO UNION DA DA DADADA
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Re: 2017 Pairwise thread
Originally posted by Numbers View PostI can't get to work, either. I looked at Harvard's schedule, and chose everyone on their schedule to lose, which should decrease their RPI by the limit, and I did the same for Western's schedule, and I can't get WMU any close than .003 in RPI.
And, as far as I can see, WMU can't change the ComOpp part of either comparison.
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Re: 2017 Pairwise thread
Originally posted by JimDahl View PostI also don't see NoDak reaching #4 or #5. I hate going live with results that don't match other published results. I'll try reaching out to CHN and see if they have insight.
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Re: 2017 Pairwise thread
Ok, I'm working on it with CHN. I'm going to keep somewhat quiet until we've got it figured out for sure and agree, but meanwhile here's a preview of what I'm seeing:
http://collegehockeyranked.com/forecast/pwrtournament/
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Re: 2017 Pairwise thread
This many affect the WMU getting a #2/#3 seed issue.
We're re-running The Matrix b/c of glitch found affecting NCHC. Only major difference is North Dakota's chances of missing NCAAs <5% now
— College Hockey News (@chnews) March 13, 2017
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Re: 2017 Pairwise thread
Much better from CHN now.
Jim Dahl,
I have a question for you. Do Thursday's results offer any possibility of definite conclusions? In other words, Do PSU and OSU both winning shut AFA out of an at-large bid? Or, some other such thing?
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Re: 2017 Pairwise thread
Originally posted by Numbers View PostI can't get to work, either. I looked at Harvard's schedule, and chose everyone on their schedule to lose . . .
Down lower, of course, the RPIs are so packed together that larger than I'd expect moves can happen based on just a game or two. I am surprised, for example, by the contention (above) that North Dakota not only falls out of the #3 seed level, but all the way out, if it does not win its tournament. I would argue that if you can win the NCHC tournament, your team is about the best there is. I don't want to see North Dakota fall into the #4 seed level, again because of what happens to the Crimson travel plans, and was starting to think they were pretty securely in the 9-12 group unless they decide to lose 2 this weekend. But perhaps not.Last edited by Crimson on the Glass; 03-13-2017, 11:19 AM.
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Re: 2017 Pairwise thread
Originally posted by Crimson on the Glass View PostI hope nothing quite so drastic as that occurs. Other than the #4/#5 swapping we've seen recently, it seems like the top 4 tier is pretty well set, with reasonably different RPIs. Though with 3 of the 4 teams playing each other, clearly some losses are inevitable. For obvious reasons, I am rooting for Minnesota to move up to #4 by week's end.
Down lower, of course, the RPIs are so packed together that larger than I'd expect moves can happen based on just a game or two. I am surprised, for example, by the contention (above) that North Dakota not only falls out of the #3 seed level, but all the way out, if it does not win its tournament. I would argue that if you can win the NCHC tournament, your team is about the best there is. I don't want to see North Dakota fall into the #4 seed level, again because of what happens to the Crimson travel plans, and was starting to think they were pretty securely in the 9-12 group unless they decide to lose 2 this weekend. But perhaps not.¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Re: 2017 Pairwise thread
Originally posted by brassbonanza View PostHarvard would only go west to play UND if all three of WMU, DU, and UMD are 1s.
I can't imagine anyone making an informed decision about attendance that would favor Harvard staying close to home. BU and UML outdraw the Crimson at Bright-Landry, regrettably.Last edited by Crimson on the Glass; 03-13-2017, 11:34 AM.
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Re: 2017 Pairwise thread
Originally posted by Tater View PostTechnically possible since CHN Probability Matrix gives Lowell 0.8% chance of getting a 4th but extremely unlikely. The following scenario where BU, Minnesota, Western Michigan (loses 2 games), and Union all lose. UML is still in 5th, but only by 0.0001 RPI. You can tinker and I'm sure find how UML makes up that small deficit, but I wouldn't place any bets on this.
http://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairwi..._58c6b44dadeb5BS UMass Lowell 2015
PhD Georgia Institute of Technology 2020
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Re: 2017 Pairwise thread
Originally posted by Crimson on the Glass View PostYes, am aware! It seems less like a perfect storm these days, and more like something that could actually happen.
And I really can't imagine anyone making a decision about attendance that would favor Harvard staying close to home. BU and UML outdraw the Crimson at Bright-Landry, regrettably.¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Re: 2017 Pairwise thread
Percentage of making tourney
http://collegehockeyranked.com/forecast/pwrtournament/Fly Eagles Fly!!!
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Re: 2017 Pairwise thread
Originally posted by JimDahl View PostOk, I'm working on it with CHN. I'm going to keep somewhat quiet until we've got it figured out for sure and agree, but meanwhile here's a preview of what I'm seeing:
http://collegehockeyranked.com/forecast/pwrtournament/That community is already in the process of dissolution where each man begins to eye his neighbor as a possible enemy, where non-conformity with the accepted creed, political as well as religious, is a mark of disaffection; where denunciation, without specification or backing, takes the place of evidence; where orthodoxy chokes freedom of dissent; where faith in the eventual supremacy of reason has become so timid that we dare not enter our convictions in the open lists, to win or lose.
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Originally posted by SJHovey View PostDoes a loss and a tie by North Dakota change the numbers at all?
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