2017 Pairwise thread

[mookie1995]

I'm sure the NC$$ has these numbers from the last to Manchester regionals. Both events occurred on the Fri./Sat. Schedule.
2013 Lowell #1 seed, #3 national ranking. Friday attendance 8000, Saturday attendance 8400.
2015 BU #1seed, #2 national ranking. Friday attendance 5100, Saturday attendance 4700.
OK let's be fair. UNH played both days with Lowell in 2013 along with Wisconsin and Denver.
BU's bracket had Yale, Minnesota and Minnesota Duluth.
A HUGE disparity in attendance. Is this a rational comparison, or does UNH render it moot?

well duh!!!!

[vizoroo]

Where would you send them?

fARGO# or Cincinnati##

#UND 3 seed
##UND 4 seed

[LTI Alum]

well duh!!!!

Umm, so you're sayin maybe UNH might have had something to do with those attendance figures

[MagnessMan]

I think this thread needs to go back to it's reason for existing. Does someone want to start a new thread for fans of privileged east coast schools who fear going west and cry loudly?

[BC/HE]

Just to show how probability can delude one into thinking something is absolute think RIT likes their 2% chance better than Niagara's absolute 0% chance with over 4000 runs after tonight's first period. NU leads 2-0. Of course that may not hold but stranger things have happened.

[Tater]

Therein lies the problem with probability simulations. Probability does not make a lock, possibility does.

It's not a problem. We are not trying to calculate quantum mechanics here. We don't need that level of specificity. Whether a team has a blank next to them, or 0.00%, 0.001%, 0.003%, it doesn't matter. We know it isn't happening. They've said before that they could run the simulation tens of thousands of more times, but it doesn't make an appreciable difference in the results.

CHN's afternoon run with 20k simulations gave Niagara a printed 0.00. Happy now?

[Patman]

Just to show how probability can delude one into thinking something is absolute think RIT likes their 2% chance better than Niagara's absolute 0% chance with over 4000 runs after tonight's first period. NU leads 2-0. Of course that may not hold but stranger things have happened.

that's to make the NCAAs... though I would choose a method that hedges more... CHN doesn't account for uncertainty in the estimator.

[MagnessMan]

that's to make the NCAAs... though I would choose a method that hedges more... CHN doesn't account for uncertainty in the estimator.

What's the probability people will get confused about the predictions to make the tourny?

[ticapnews]

I think this thread needs to go back to it's reason for existing. Does someone want to start a new thread for fans of privileged east coast schools who fear going west and cry loudly?

What about fans of privileged western schools who fear going east and cry loudly?

[ticapnews]

Fargo
1. Denver v AQ2
Union v North Dakota

Cincinnati
4. Western Michigan v Wisconsin
Minnesota v Providence

Providence
2. Duluth v AQ1
Boston University v Pedo State

Manchester
3. Harvard v Notre Dame
Lowell v Cornell

Friends and Family crowd in Cincinnati and not a lot better in Providence. 11 flights (which the NCAA loves). But at least Denver stays west, which is all that matters.

[Numbers]

Fargo
1. Denver v AQ2
Union v North Dakota

Cincinnati
4. Western Michigan v Wisconsin
Minnesota v Providence

Providence
2. Duluth v AQ1
Boston University v Pedo State

Manchester
3. Harvard v Notre Dame
Lowell v Cornell

Friends and Family crowd in Cincinnati and not a lot better in Providence. 11 flights (which the NCAA loves). But at least Denver stays west, which is all that matters.

Lots of hockey yet to be played. And, should the PWR come out exactly as it is now, I am pretty sure you would see Minn v NoDak.

Problem with Cincinnati is that the nearby schools are WMU, who really shouldn't be there based on the proximity for #1 seeds rule, and then Penn St, Ohio St, and NoDame. And, it's not at all sure that all 3 of those will actually make the field.

[Patman]

Fargo
1. Denver v AQ2
Union v North Dakota

Cincinnati
4. Western Michigan v Wisconsin
Minnesota v Providence

Providence
2. Duluth v AQ1
Boston University v Pedo State

Manchester
3. Harvard v Notre Dame
Lowell v Cornell

Friends and Family crowd in Cincinnati and not a lot better in Providence. 11 flights (which the NCAA loves). But at least Denver stays west, which is all that matters.

I think they'd send BU out west to Grand Forks and send Penn State to Cincinnati... Between UML and BU I think it'll come down to whoever is higher in the PWR... the worse one will probably end up in Fargo

[ticapnews]

Lots of hockey yet to be played. And, should the PWR come out exactly as it is now, I am pretty sure you would see Minn v NoDak.

Problem with Cincinnati is that the nearby schools are WMU, who really shouldn't be there based on the proximity for #1 seeds rule, and then Penn St, Ohio St, and NoDame. And, it's not at all sure that all 3 of those will actually make the field.

I think they'd send BU out west to Grand Forks and send Penn State to Cincinnati... Between UML and BU I think it'll come down to whoever is higher in the PWR... the worse one will probably end up in Fargo

That's all irrelevant. All that matters is Denver going to Fargo. Haven't you been paying attention to the thread? If the NCAA actually cared about money and attendance, then they might do something like this

Fargo
2. Duluth v AQ1
Minnesota v North Dakota

Cincinnati
4. Western Michigan v Wisconsin
Boston University v Pedo State

Providence
1. Denver v AQ2
Union v Providence

Manchester
3. Harvard v Notre Dame
Lowell v Cornell

...but it'll never happen because the Pios need to go to Fargo for some reason. Even though a flight is a flight and they're flying no matter what.

[BC/HE]

I find it strange that all the predictions here are using AQ1 & AQ2 yet Air Force is in the top 16 PWR. They are as legitimate to count in as any of the others in the 4th bracket or even upper 3rd bracket so unless they drop out of the top 16 they should be listed instead of using AQ. They could even fly into Grand Forks AFB and bus in with UND if UND makes the tournament.

[ticapnews]

I find it strange that all the predictions here are using AQ1 & AQ2 yet Air Force is in the top 16 PWR. They are as legitimate to count in as any of the others in the 4th bracket or even upper 3rd bracket so unless they drop out of the top 16 they should be listed instead of using AQ. They could even fly into Grand Forks AFB and bus in with UND if UND makes the tournament.

I use AQ1 and AQ2 because those teams/conferences do not qualify for an at-large berth. USAF is 16th. They're not there yet.

[SteveO]

I think I'll wait for Jayson's assessment...this guy knows.

"Since USCHO began the PairWise Rankings, we have correctly identified all of the teams that have been selected to the NCAA tournament. Five of the last six years, I am the only prognosticator to have correctly predicted the exact brackets for the NCAA tournament, meaning that I have predicted how the committee thought when putting together the brackets.

When you look at past history, it comes down to attendance and it doesn’t matter where the seeds are. What’s important is preserving the matchups that are made with teams outside of the Top 16 to those No. 1 seeds and then attendance. It doesn’t matter what the seeds are, just that you stay within that band. In other words, if you’re a second-seeded team from 5-8, you can go anywhere and play anyone, as long as the team you’re playing is 9-12." - Jayson Moy, Senior Writer, USCHO

[Scarlet]

I think they'd send BU out west to Grand Forks and send Penn State to Cincinnati... Between UML and BU I think it'll come down to whoever is higher in the PWR... the worse one will probably end up in Fargo

Look, I know there isn't a lot of love for BU around these parts (unless we play Notre Dame in which case EVERYONE becomes our friend) but there's no need to send BU to a city in North Dakota where there isn't going to be any hockey played that weekend.

[Numbers]

I find it strange that all the predictions here are using AQ1 & AQ2 yet Air Force is in the top 16 PWR. They are as legitimate to count in as any of the others in the 4th bracket or even upper 3rd bracket so unless they drop out of the top 16 they should be listed instead of using AQ. They could even fly into Grand Forks AFB and bus in with UND if UND makes the tournament.

I use AQ1 and AQ2 because those teams/conferences do not qualify for an at-large berth. USAF is 16th. They're not there yet.

Some posters would use AFA as a stand in for the AHA auto-qualifier at present, if they choose to identify the current leader.

AFA has a slight chance to be an at-large qualifier. CHN currently lists that as a 9% chance in their Monte Carlo simulator. That's actually higher than I would have given them credit for.

[Patman]

Look, I know there isn't a lot of love for BU around these parts (unless we play Notre Dame in which case EVERYONE becomes our friend) but there's no need to send BU to a city in North Dakota where there isn't going to be any hockey played that weekend.

my fault, I assumed they were playing in GF... my bad

[ticapnews]

Look, I know there isn't a lot of love for BU around these parts (unless we play Notre Dame in which case EVERYONE becomes our friend) but there's no need to send BU to a city in North Dakota where there isn't going to be any hockey played that weekend.

I'm sure there will be hockey played by someone in Grand Forks that weekend.