I think this thread needs to go back to it's reason for existing. Does someone want to start a new thread for fans of privileged east coast schools who fear going west and cry loudly?
Go Pioneers!
Just to show how probability can delude one into thinking something is absolute think RIT likes their 2% chance better than Niagara's absolute 0% chance with over 4000 runs after tonight's first period. NU leads 2-0. Of course that may not hold but stranger things have happened.
It's not a problem. We are not trying to calculate quantum mechanics here. We don't need that level of specificity. Whether a team has a blank next to them, or 0.00%, 0.001%, 0.003%, it doesn't matter. We know it isn't happening. They've said before that they could run the simulation tens of thousands of more times, but it doesn't make an appreciable difference in the results.
CHN's afternoon run with 20k simulations gave Niagara a printed 0.00. Happy now?![]()
Last edited by Tater; 03-05-2017 at 07:12 PM.
BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09
Jerseys I would like to have:
Skating Friar Jersey
AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
Army Black Knight logo jersey
NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer
Fargo
1. Denver v AQ2
Union v North Dakota
Cincinnati
4. Western Michigan v Wisconsin
Minnesota v Providence
Providence
2. Duluth v AQ1
Boston University v Pedo State
Manchester
3. Harvard v Notre Dame
Lowell v Cornell
Friends and Family crowd in Cincinnati and not a lot better in Providence. 11 flights (which the NCAA loves). But at least Denver stays west, which is all that matters.
Lots of hockey yet to be played. And, should the PWR come out exactly as it is now, I am pretty sure you would see Minn v NoDak.
Problem with Cincinnati is that the nearby schools are WMU, who really shouldn't be there based on the proximity for #1 seeds rule, and then Penn St, Ohio St, and NoDame. And, it's not at all sure that all 3 of those will actually make the field.
BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09
Jerseys I would like to have:
Skating Friar Jersey
AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
Army Black Knight logo jersey
NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer
That's all irrelevant. All that matters is Denver going to Fargo. Haven't you been paying attention to the thread? If the NCAA actually cared about money and attendance, then they might do something like this
Fargo
2. Duluth v AQ1
Minnesota v North Dakota
Cincinnati
4. Western Michigan v Wisconsin
Boston University v Pedo State
Providence
1. Denver v AQ2
Union v Providence
Manchester
3. Harvard v Notre Dame
Lowell v Cornell
...but it'll never happen because the Pios need to go to Fargo for some reason. Even though a flight is a flight and they're flying no matter what.
I find it strange that all the predictions here are using AQ1 & AQ2 yet Air Force is in the top 16 PWR. They are as legitimate to count in as any of the others in the 4th bracket or even upper 3rd bracket so unless they drop out of the top 16 they should be listed instead of using AQ. They could even fly into Grand Forks AFB and bus in with UND if UND makes the tournament.
Last edited by BC/HE; 03-05-2017 at 11:16 PM.
I think I'll wait for Jayson's assessment...this guy knows.
"Since USCHO began the PairWise Rankings, we have correctly identified all of the teams that have been selected to the NCAA tournament. Five of the last six years, I am the only prognosticator to have correctly predicted the exact brackets for the NCAA tournament, meaning that I have predicted how the committee thought when putting together the brackets.
When you look at past history, it comes down to attendance and it doesn’t matter where the seeds are. What’s important is preserving the matchups that are made with teams outside of the Top 16 to those No. 1 seeds and then attendance. It doesn’t matter what the seeds are, just that you stay within that band. In other words, if you’re a second-seeded team from 5-8, you can go anywhere and play anyone, as long as the team you’re playing is 9-12." - Jayson Moy, Senior Writer, USCHO
Some posters would use AFA as a stand in for the AHA auto-qualifier at present, if they choose to identify the current leader.
AFA has a slight chance to be an at-large qualifier. CHN currently lists that as a 9% chance in their Monte Carlo simulator. That's actually higher than I would have given them credit for.
BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09
Jerseys I would like to have:
Skating Friar Jersey
AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
Army Black Knight logo jersey
NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer
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