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Thread: 2017 Pairwise thread

  1. #41
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by The Zlax45 View Post
    If PC, BU, and Lowell all end up as two and three seeds, no chance they all can stay east. PC drew over 8k iirc at the Dunk last time so I am pretty sure they want those numbers again.
    Agreed. Just ship BU west as Lowell will bring more fans to either eastern venue.
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  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by riverchief1 View Post
    Agreed. Just ship BU west as Lowell will bring more fans to either eastern venue.
    I am with you but the perception is that BU is a bigger name then Lowell...Lowell always blows them away with fans

  3. #43
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by riverchief1 View Post
    Agreed. Just ship BU west as Lowell will bring more fans to either eastern venue.
    Barring something unexpected, it is likely to come down to either BU or Lowell in Manchester. The NCAA will have to balance bracket integrity with attendance issues. Conventional wisdom says Lowell stays, but we're dealing with the NCAA here...

  4. #44
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Intra-conference match ups are only taboo in first game of regional---1 vs 4 or 2 vs 3. No reason to send #1 Denver to Providence.
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  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by vizoroo View Post
    Intra-conference match ups are only taboo in first game of regional---1 vs 4 or 2 vs 3. No reason to send #1 Denver to Providence.
    Where would you send them?

  6. #46
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ticapnews View Post
    Barring something unexpected, it is likely to come down to either BU or Lowell in Manchester. The NCAA will have to balance bracket integrity with attendance issues. Conventional wisdom says Lowell stays, but we're dealing with the NCAA here...
    The committee could also drop the delusion that they need to keep Providence in Providence. Lowell will outdraw Providence in Providence. Keep both 2 seeds East and send PC out if they're a 3 seed.
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  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patronick View Post
    The committee could also drop the delusion that they need to keep Providence in Providence. Lowell will outdraw Providence in Providence. Keep both 2 seeds East and send PC out if they're a 3 seed.
    Sure. I could get a unicorn next Christmas too.

    In this scenario, the committee also has to consider that PSU will be a better draw in Cincinnati than Providence.

  8. #48
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ticapnews View Post
    I don't think skate79 understood the conference bind. That was the reason for that confusion.

    As for Lowell vs BU, the NCAA could certainly make a switch for attendance if needed. I wouldn't, but the NCAA has and likely will again. The question is whether the NCAA calculates this switch is worth it. With Lowell, BU and PC almost assured of all being in the two/three bands, someone is going west.
    I understand the conference bind. I also understand that Harvard does not travel well at all in terms of fan attendance. If the NCAA wants maximum fannies in the seats, they would do well to keep Harvard in the East. Otherwise, the Crimson are basically playing a #13 seed on their home ice which in my mind is a screw job. And yeah I get that Denver would be in the same position playing in Providence against the Friars for a trip to the Frozen Four. That's why you have to send these teams to neutral sites and reward the teams that have fought to gain the higher seeding a chance to play closer to home. Sorry but North Dakota should not be given a free pass for just getting in under the wire.

  9. #49
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Lowell should play in Manchester. They (UML) always have a huge fan turnout and Manchester is just up the road. If Harvard finishes in the top 4, they should also stay east but the rest of the ECAC teams that make it to the NCAA's can travel. With the exception of possibly Cornell, I don't think ECAC teams will add much to ticket sales. Certainly not as much as a Providence, BU or UML.
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  10. #50
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by The Zlax45 View Post
    If PC, BU, and Lowell all end up as two and three seeds, no chance they all can stay east. PC drew over 8k iirc at the Dunk last time so I am pretty sure they want those numbers again.
    2015 regionals in Providence had 7900 with BC playing day 1 and 6300 on day 2 without BC. Probably still decent numbers. Day 2s are usually less and I think it was Sunday night.

  11. #51
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    Which teams are locks for the tourney? Which teams are still on the bubble?

    To be more specific, what would have to happen for Union to NOT make the tourney? I feel like being at #8 in the PWR is usually close to a lock, but a lot of teams are bunched up behind us so I still feel like there's a way to not make it.

    I have traveled to every game Union has played in the National Tournament, but I'm not going to Fargo, ND. Hoping we can stay East, preferably in Providence.

  12. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by UnionHockeyManiac View Post
    Which teams are locks for the tourney? Which teams are still on the bubble?

    To be more specific, what would have to happen for Union to NOT make the tourney? I feel like being at #8 in the PWR is usually close to a lock, but a lot of teams are bunched up behind us so I still feel like there's a way to not make it.

    I have traveled to every game Union has played in the National Tournament, but I'm not going to Fargo, ND. Hoping we can stay East, preferably in Providence.
    Once the game 3s are done today I'll run some scenarios (as I'm sure SiouxSports and CHN will) and we'll have a better idea. It was so much easier when the DIY calculator was working.

  13. #53
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by UnionHockeyManiac View Post
    To be more specific, what would have to happen for Union to NOT make the tourney? I feel like being at #8 in the PWR is usually close to a lock, but a lot of teams are bunched up behind us so I still feel like there's a way to not make it.
    According to CHN's Probability Matrix, Union is 100% in. Along with Duluth, Denver, Harvard, Minnesota, Western Michigan, BU, UML.

    Penn State, PC, and Cornell are all 97%+.

    So I would say those 11 are set.

  14. #54
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by UnionHockeyManiac View Post
    Which teams are locks for the tourney? Which teams are still on the bubble?

    To be more specific, what would have to happen for Union to NOT make the tourney? I feel like being at #8 in the PWR is usually close to a lock, but a lot of teams are bunched up behind us so I still feel like there's a way to not make it.

    I have traveled to every game Union has played in the National Tournament, but I'm not going to Fargo, ND. Hoping we can stay East, preferably in Providence.
    Union would have to be swept by either Princeton(if they win game 3) or Yale(if Colgate wins game 3) next weekend and still would have about a 98% chance of getting in. Perhaps having almost all auto bids going to lower teams would have to happen then. Top 10 teams with the possible exception of Penn State are almost locks like that, top 3 are already locks.

    Be careful of the CHN predictor as Niagara still has a chance for the Autobid and they do not post it even if just barely over 0%. Only 13 teams are already out not 14. Those 100%'s appear to be rounded off for all but the top 3. 4 & 5 definitely would need 6 bizarre autobids to exclude them.
    Last edited by BC/HE; 03-05-2017 at 12:12 PM. Reason: Note about Niagara and 100%

  15. #55
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by BC/HE View Post

    Be careful of the CHN predictor as Niagara still has a chance for the Autobid and they do not post it even if just barely over 0%.
    What it says is that in 4,628 different simulations, Niagara made the tournament in zero of them. So, while mathematically, Niagara is above 0.0%, I think the CHN tool is thorough enough.

  16. #56
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Tater View Post
    What it says is that in 4,628 different simulations, Niagara made the tournament in zero of them. So, while mathematically, Niagara is above 0.0%, I think the CHN tool is thorough enough.
    Therein lies the problem with probability simulations. Probability does not make a lock, possibility does.

  17. #57
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Simple math.

  18. #58
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ticapnews View Post
    Barring something unexpected, it is likely to come down to either BU or Lowell in Manchester. The NCAA will have to balance bracket integrity with attendance issues. Conventional wisdom says Lowell stays, but we're dealing with the NCAA here...
    I'm sure the NC$$ has these numbers from the last to Manchester regionals. Both events occurred on the Fri./Sat. Schedule.
    2013 Lowell #1 seed, #3 national ranking. Friday attendance 8000, Saturday attendance 8400.
    2015 BU #1seed, #2 national ranking. Friday attendance 5100, Saturday attendance 4700.
    OK let's be fair. UNH played both days with Lowell in 2013 along with Wisconsin and Denver.
    BU's bracket had Yale, Minnesota and Minnesota Duluth.
    A HUGE disparity in attendance. Is this a rational comparison, or does UNH render it moot?

  19. #59
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    Quote Originally Posted by LTI Alum View Post
    I'm sure the NC$$ has these numbers from the last to Manchester regionals. Both events occurred on the Fri./Sat. Schedule.
    2013 Lowell #1 seed, #3 national ranking. Friday attendance 8000, Saturday attendance 8400.
    2015 BU #1seed, #2 national ranking. Friday attendance 5100, Saturday attendance 4700.
    OK let's be fair. UNH played both days with Lowell in 2013 along with Wisconsin and Denver.
    BU's bracket had Yale, Minnesota and Minnesota Duluth.
    A HUGE disparity in attendance. Is this a rational comparison, or does UNH render it moot?
    There were about 100-200 Yale fans on that Friday, i was there.
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  20. #60
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    Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

    I've said it for years the NCAA cannot serve two masters when it comes to placing hockey teams in the 4 regional sites. Either you go completely with bracket integrity and seed 1-16, 2-15, 8-9, etc, or you gerrymander the crap out of the thing, putting teams as close to possible to their home region. I might go so far as to say you can protect the 1-16 matchup and then look to make attendance an issue, but other than that, either stick with seeds or stick with attendance.

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