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Thread: 2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

  1. #21
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    Re: 2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

    Quote Originally Posted by gfmorris View Post

    I do obviously want Northern to win.

    GFM
    Geof: Are you saying that because you really mean it? OR instead, your alleged disdain for the Beavers is really over-shadowed by your respect for the challenges and rivalries that both BSU your UAH program share?

  2. #22

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    Quote Originally Posted by gfmorris View Post
    I don't expect chalk — I think that Ferris wins and either Northern or Fairbanks. That's not what a projection will say —*a projection will always generally favor chalk — but that's what I guess.

    I do obviously want Northern to win.

    GFM
    As much parity as there is in this league, I won't be at all surprised if some
    of the road teams advance past this weekend.

  3. #23
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    Re: 2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

    Quote Originally Posted by Andrew J Carter View Post
    Geof: Are you saying that because you really mean it? OR instead, your alleged disdain for the Beavers is really over-shadowed by your respect for the challenges and rivalries that both BSU your UAH program share?
    I hate everything. The Beavers got lucky in getting the Sanford Center when they did so they could be on good footing with the CHA folded. Jumping into the WCHA helped them stay relevant, and Tom Serratore's abilities have helped make them a great team in this league.

    I hate everything. I root for Tech second to UAH, but ... ugh ... I kinda root for the Beavs third.

    I hate everything.

    GFM
    Geof F. Morris
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  4. #24

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    Quote Originally Posted by gfmorris View Post
    I hate everything. The Beavers got lucky in getting the Sanford Center when they did so they could be on good footing with the CHA folded. Jumping into the WCHA helped them stay relevant, and Tom Serratore's abilities have helped make them a great team in this league.

    I hate everything. I root for Tech second to UAH, but ... ugh ... I kinda root for the Beavs third.

    I hate everything.

    GFM
    We have room for you on our bandwagon.

  5. #25
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    Re: 2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

    From the WCHA columnist playoff preview blog:

    "That’s a fact: Ferris State played in the 4-5 series last season and was ousted by Bemidji State in multiple overtimes."

    That's one amazing comeback to be eliminated in the opening round but recover to win the Broadmoor Trophy.

  6. #26
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    Re: 2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

    We're guaranteed a 1st time semifinalist in the "New" WCHA, as the winner of the BSU-NMU series will be making its first trip to the 2nd round. And on the other end, either Ferris or BGSU will fail to advance for the first time. So some new blood, with a chance for lots of it, if UAF and LSSU win.

  7. #27
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    Re: 2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

    BG hasn't lost a first round series since Bergeron has been the coach (including eliminating Ferris from the CCHA playoffs in 3 games the year that Ferris made it to the Frozen Four). I expect that to continue this year. Except for some unbelievable goal tending by Tolvenan as well as a couple of defensive gaffs that NMU capitalized on, BG's winning streak could easily be 5 games. We out shot NMU 35-23 in the first game and 40-20 in the second game. Those numbers generally spell out a win. Also, the confidence level of BG is at an all time high for the season. It might go to 3 games, but I expect us to win it in 2.

  8. #28
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    Re: 2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

    I'll have numbers soon for the whole thing, but the first round looks about like this:

    Quarterfinal 1: Northern Michigan at Bemidji State
    Seed 1 Sweeps 68.624% and wins in 3 20.960%.
    Seed 8 Sweeps 4.311% and wins in 3 6.106%.
    Quarterfinal 2: Lake Superior at Michigan Tech
    Seed 2 Sweeps 65.817% and wins in 3 21.938%.
    Seed 7 Sweeps 5.180% and wins in 3 7.066%.
    Quarterfinal 3: Alaska at Minnesota State
    Seed 3 Sweeps 50.981% and wins in 3 24.899%.
    Seed 6 Sweeps 11.291% and wins in 3 12.829%.
    Quarterfinal 4: Ferris State at Bowling Green
    Seed 4 Sweeps 33.941% and wins in 3 24.913%.
    Seed 5 Sweeps 20.420% and wins in 3 20.727%.
    GFM
    Geof F. Morris
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  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by gfmorris View Post
    I'll have numbers soon for the whole thing, but the first round looks about like this:



    GFM
    Just curious, how has the accuracy of the results been for NMU been since Jan 1?

  10. #30
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    Re: 2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

    http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2017/03...l-projections/

    Quote Originally Posted by davyd83 View Post
    Just curious, how has the accuracy of the results been for NMU been since Jan 1?
    In terms of series-by-series results or as a whole (say, what were Northern's chances of making the playoffs as the 8th seed on New Year's Day)?

    GFM
    Geof F. Morris
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  11. #31

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    Re: 2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

    Kind of interesting to note that the conference mostly had pretty easy travel pairings for the playoffs. UAF had to fly anyway, but Mankato is easy by our standards (easy flight to MSP, quick drive south). MTU/LSSU and BGSU/FSU are all under 300 miles. Northern Michigan might have had the worst draw with a 400 mile bus ride to Bemidji.

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    I'm still new to this whole WCHA.tv thing. Can anyone tell me why I can't go full screen? Might it have anything to do with the browser? I'm using Internet Explorer.

  13. #33
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    Re: 2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

    Dave, to go back to your question: BELOW is an estimate, and ABOVE projects off of that estimate. Right now, because of the run the Wildcats went on, BELOW thinks that the Wildcats are the sixth-best team in the league right now (and had them at fourth as of Week 20). They just happen to be playing the best team in the league, and ABOVE doesn't like their chances.

    Quote Originally Posted by NMU Fan View Post
    I'm still new to this whole WCHA.tv thing. Can anyone tell me why I can't go full screen? Might it have anything to do with the browser? I'm using Internet Explorer.
    At the bottom of the window: start at the center with the elapsed-time counter, then move right: volume icon, then the useless popup player, and then four arrows pointing away from the center.

    Happy hunting. I won't be watching tonight (too hard) but will probably do so tomorrow.

    GFM
    Geof F. Morris
    UAH BSE MAE 2002
    UAHHockey.com

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by gfmorris View Post
    At the bottom of the window: start at the center with the elapsed-time counter, then move right: volume icon, then the useless popup player, and then four arrows pointing away from the center.

    Happy hunting. I won't be watching tonight (too hard) but will probably do so tomorrow.

    GFM
    Yeah we've tried that. It's like the button is broken or something.

  15. #35
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    Re: 2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

    Guys, they read our posts about lack of offense.
    “At the end of the day, the Gov Cup is just a trophy,” UAA senior Jordan Kwas said. “I’d rather be in the Final Five every time over winning the Gov Cup.”

    Matt Thomas' Record
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    (2014-15) 8-22-4
    (2015-16) 11-20-3
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    (Total) 44-79-17

    2016-17 Word(s) of the Season: Medicore coaching for 24 years due to administration

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by gfmorris View Post
    Dave, to go back to your question: BELOW is an estimate, and ABOVE projects off of that estimate. Right now, because of the run the Wildcats went on, BELOW thinks that the Wildcats are the sixth-best team in the league right now (and had them at fourth as of Week 20). They just happen to be playing the best team in the league, and ABOVE doesn't like their chances.



    At the bottom of the window: start at the center with the elapsed-time counter, then move right: volume icon, then the useless popup player, and then four arrows pointing away from the center.

    Happy hunting. I won't be watching tonight (too hard) but will probably do so tomorrow.

    GFM
    Thanks Geof.

  17. #37
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    Re: 2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

    What happened to Atte Tolvanen? After five straight shutouts, he has given up 21 goals the past five games.
    LSSU hockey-NCAA champs 1988, 1992, 1994

    Arenas visited:
    Taffy Abel Arena (LSSU, 1992)
    Ewigleben Arena (Ferris State, 1997)
    Munn Ice Arena (Michigan State, 1997)
    Berry Events Center (NMU, 2007)
    Lawson Ice Arena (Western Michigan, 2009)
    John McInnes Ice Arena (Michigan Tech, 2009)
    Yost Ice Arena (Michigan, 2010)
    Joyce Ice Center/Compton Family Ice Arena (Notre Dame, 2010/2014)
    BGSU Ice Arena (BGSU, 2013)
    Kohl Center (Wisconsin, 2013)
    Ralph Engelstad Arena (North Dakota, 2014)

  18. #38
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    Re: 2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

    Quote Originally Posted by LSSULaker889294 View Post
    What happened to Atte Tolvanen? After five straight shutouts, he has given up 21 goals the past five games.
    The law of averages?
    “At the end of the day, the Gov Cup is just a trophy,” UAA senior Jordan Kwas said. “I’d rather be in the Final Five every time over winning the Gov Cup.”

    Matt Thomas' Record
    (2013-14) 18-16-4
    (2014-15) 8-22-4
    (2015-16) 11-20-3
    (2016-17) 7-21-6
    (Total) 44-79-17

    2016-17 Word(s) of the Season: Medicore coaching for 24 years due to administration

  19. #39

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    Quote Originally Posted by gfmorris View Post
    ...[T]he first round looks about like this:
    Quarterfinal 1: Northern Michigan at Bemidji State
    Seed 8 Wins in 3 6.106%.
    GFM




    Quote Originally Posted by AKSWF View Post
    The law of averages?
    Yep. That's my take on it too.

  20. #40
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    Re: 2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

    Quote Originally Posted by AKSWF View Post
    The law of averages?
    Yes I would say there is some regression to the mean. But probably more importantly is that Tolvanen's shutouts, as significant as they were, were against our #4, #6 & #10 WCHA teams. In contrast, his last 3 opponents have been the WCHA's #1, #2, and #3 teams.

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