2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

[Andrew J Carter]

I do obviously want Northern to win.

GFM

Geof: Are you saying that because you really mean it? OR instead, your alleged disdain for the Beavers is really over-shadowed by your respect for the challenges and rivalries that both BSU your UAH program share?

[Squarebanks]

I don't expect chalk — I think that Ferris wins and either Northern or Fairbanks. That's not what a projection will say —*a projection will always generally favor chalk — but that's what I guess.

I do obviously want Northern to win.

GFM

As much parity as there is in this league, I won't be at all surprised if some
of the road teams advance past this weekend.

[gfmorris]

Geof: Are you saying that because you really mean it? OR instead, your alleged disdain for the Beavers is really over-shadowed by your respect for the challenges and rivalries that both BSU your UAH program share?

I hate everything. The Beavers got lucky in getting the Sanford Center when they did so they could be on good footing with the CHA folded. Jumping into the WCHA helped them stay relevant, and Tom Serratore's abilities have helped make them a great team in this league.

I hate everything. I root for Tech second to UAH, but ... ugh ... I kinda root for the Beavs third.

I hate everything.

GFM

[Squarebanks]

I hate everything. The Beavers got lucky in getting the Sanford Center when they did so they could be on good footing with the CHA folded. Jumping into the WCHA helped them stay relevant, and Tom Serratore's abilities have helped make them a great team in this league.

I hate everything. I root for Tech second to UAH, but ... ugh ... I kinda root for the Beavs third.

I hate everything.

GFM

We have room for you on our bandwagon.

[John J. MacInnes]

From the WCHA columnist playoff preview blog:

"That’s a fact: Ferris State played in the 4-5 series last season and was ousted by Bemidji State in multiple overtimes."

That's one amazing comeback to be eliminated in the opening round but recover to win the Broadmoor Trophy.

[purpleinnebraska]

We're guaranteed a 1st time semifinalist in the "New" WCHA, as the winner of the BSU-NMU series will be making its first trip to the 2nd round. And on the other end, either Ferris or BGSU will fail to advance for the first time. So some new blood, with a chance for lots of it, if UAF and LSSU win.

[BGFan]

BG hasn't lost a first round series since Bergeron has been the coach (including eliminating Ferris from the CCHA playoffs in 3 games the year that Ferris made it to the Frozen Four). I expect that to continue this year. Except for some unbelievable goal tending by Tolvenan as well as a couple of defensive gaffs that NMU capitalized on, BG's winning streak could easily be 5 games. We out shot NMU 35-23 in the first game and 40-20 in the second game. Those numbers generally spell out a win. Also, the confidence level of BG is at an all time high for the season. It might go to 3 games, but I expect us to win it in 2.

[gfmorris]

I'll have numbers soon for the whole thing, but the first round looks about like this:

Quarterfinal 1: Northern Michigan at Bemidji State
Seed 1 Sweeps 68.624% and wins in 3 20.960%.
Seed 8 Sweeps 4.311% and wins in 3 6.106%.
Quarterfinal 2: Lake Superior at Michigan Tech
Seed 2 Sweeps 65.817% and wins in 3 21.938%.
Seed 7 Sweeps 5.180% and wins in 3 7.066%.
Quarterfinal 3: Alaska at Minnesota State
Seed 3 Sweeps 50.981% and wins in 3 24.899%.
Seed 6 Sweeps 11.291% and wins in 3 12.829%.
Quarterfinal 4: Ferris State at Bowling Green
Seed 4 Sweeps 33.941% and wins in 3 24.913%.
Seed 5 Sweeps 20.420% and wins in 3 20.727%.

GFM

[davyd83]

I'll have numbers soon for the whole thing, but the first round looks about like this:



GFM

Just curious, how has the accuracy of the results been for NMU been since Jan 1?

[gfmorris]

http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2017/03...l-projections/

Just curious, how has the accuracy of the results been for NMU been since Jan 1?

In terms of series-by-series results or as a whole (say, what were Northern's chances of making the playoffs as the 8th seed on New Year's Day)?

GFM

[Squarebanks]

Kind of interesting to note that the conference mostly had pretty easy travel pairings for the playoffs. UAF had to fly anyway, but Mankato is easy by our standards (easy flight to MSP, quick drive south). MTU/LSSU and BGSU/FSU are all under 300 miles. Northern Michigan might have had the worst draw with a 400 mile bus ride to Bemidji.

[NMU Fan]

I'm still new to this whole WCHA.tv thing. Can anyone tell me why I can't go full screen? Might it have anything to do with the browser? I'm using Internet Explorer.

[gfmorris]

Dave, to go back to your question: BELOW is an estimate, and ABOVE projects off of that estimate. Right now, because of the run the Wildcats went on, BELOW thinks that the Wildcats are the sixth-best team in the league right now (and had them at fourth as of Week 20). They just happen to be playing the best team in the league, and ABOVE doesn't like their chances.

I'm still new to this whole WCHA.tv thing. Can anyone tell me why I can't go full screen? Might it have anything to do with the browser? I'm using Internet Explorer.

At the bottom of the window: start at the center with the elapsed-time counter, then move right: volume icon, then the useless popup player, and then four arrows pointing away from the center.

Happy hunting. I won't be watching tonight (too hard) but will probably do so tomorrow.

GFM

[NMU Fan]

At the bottom of the window: start at the center with the elapsed-time counter, then move right: volume icon, then the useless popup player, and then four arrows pointing away from the center.

Happy hunting. I won't be watching tonight (too hard) but will probably do so tomorrow.

GFM

Yeah we've tried that. It's like the button is broken or something.

[AKSWF]

Guys, they read our posts about lack of offense.

[davyd83]

Dave, to go back to your question: BELOW is an estimate, and ABOVE projects off of that estimate. Right now, because of the run the Wildcats went on, BELOW thinks that the Wildcats are the sixth-best team in the league right now (and had them at fourth as of Week 20). They just happen to be playing the best team in the league, and ABOVE doesn't like their chances.



At the bottom of the window: start at the center with the elapsed-time counter, then move right: volume icon, then the useless popup player, and then four arrows pointing away from the center.

Happy hunting. I won't be watching tonight (too hard) but will probably do so tomorrow.

GFM

Thanks Geof.

[LSSULaker889294]

What happened to Atte Tolvanen? After five straight shutouts, he has given up 21 goals the past five games.

[AKSWF]

What happened to Atte Tolvanen? After five straight shutouts, he has given up 21 goals the past five games.

The law of averages?

[aparch]

...[T]he first round looks about like this:

Quarterfinal 1: Northern Michigan at Bemidji State
Seed 8 Wins in 3 6.106%.

GFM

The law of averages?

Yep. That's my take on it too.

[Andrew J Carter]

The law of averages?

Yes I would say there is some regression to the mean. But probably more importantly is that Tolvanen's shutouts, as significant as they were, were against our #4, #6 & #10 WCHA teams. In contrast, his last 3 opponents have been the WCHA's #1, #2, and #3 teams.