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2017 NCAA tournament selection thread

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  • Originally posted by peddler View Post
    That, for this first (public) round of rankings would be correct. These rankings (assuming I understand the process) WILL be used to create RNK for next Tuesday's 2/14 round, etc, until the final "selection".

    In XYZ's Feb 14 "opus" on another website he describes this initial process by saying "Strength-of-schedule (SOS) appears to be pulling some significant weight in the East rankings, at least in some instances. As RNK was not considered by the committees in the generation of this set of rankings".

    As Prof points out, why not use the (non-publicized) rankings from Feb. 7th? I have no idea since the manual does not explain further. I welcome anyone who might shed some light on the issue.
    The issue is that if you use this week's rankings to determine RNK for next week's rankings, and so on, that's all fine and dandy... until you get to the final rankings used in the selection and it's done differently. The RNK used to determine the final rankings is based on those final rankings themselves. That's a problematic process in itself (and has been for some time), but to now do it differently with each of the prior rankings makes no sense.

    This week's ranking, and next week's, and every ranking befor selection Sunday will have absolutely 0 affect on the final selection. "Once ranked, always ranked" was eliminated a while ago.
    Plattsburgh CARDINALS
    SUNYAC Champ x24: 78, 79, 82, 83, 85, 87, 88, 90, 92, 93, 97, 98, 99, 00, 01, 02, 04, 08, 09, 11, 12, 15, 17, 23
    ECACW Champ x11: 81, 82, 87, 92, 06, 07, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
    NEWHL Champ x5: 18, 19, 20, 22, 23
    NCAA DIII Champ x10-ish: 87, 92, 01, 07, 08, 14, 15, 16, 17, 19
    NCAA DIII Runner-up x4-ish: 86, 90, 06, 08
    NCAA DII Runner-up x2: 81, 82

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    • Re: 2017 NCAA tournament selection thread

      Originally posted by CARDS_rule_the_Burgh View Post
      "Once ranked, always ranked" was eliminated a while ago.
      Unfortunately that concept was the one that actually was viable. The biggest issue with all of this is the fact that you can hurt your own profile by winning a game. If you are playing a team near the bottom of the rankings (such as 9 or 10 E) and you win, with your win causing them to fall out of the rankings, you hurt your own case and just as perversely if you had lost to one of those teams, somebody else beating them and knocking them out of the ratings will help you - because your RNK percentage will go up. If the team stayed ranked, their effect on your profile remains. It's a crazy system.
      Last edited by NUProf; 02-15-2017, 11:10 PM.
      2007-2008 ECAC East/NESCAC Interlock Pick 'em winner
      2007-2008 Last Person Standing Winner,
      2013-2014 Last Person Standing Winner (tie)
      2016-2017 Last Person Standing Winner

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      • Re: 2017 NCAA tournament selection thread

        Originally posted by CARDS_rule_the_Burgh View Post
        The issue is that if you use this week's rankings to determine RNK for next week's rankings, and so on, that's all fine and dandy... until you get to the final rankings used in the selection and it's done differently. The RNK used to determine the final rankings is based on those final rankings themselves. That's a problematic process in itself (and has been for some time), but to now do it differently with each of the prior rankings makes no sense.

        This week's ranking, and next week's, and every ranking befor selection Sunday will have absolutely 0 affect on the final selection. "Once ranked, always ranked" was eliminated a while ago.
        My name is Garrett Rank, and I approve this post!
        CCT '77 & '78
        4 kids
        5 grandsons (BCA 7/09, CJA 5/14, JDL 8/14, JFL 6/16, PJL 7/18)
        1 granddaughter (EML 4/18)

        ”Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both.”
        - Benjamin Franklin

        Banned from the St. Lawrence University Facebook page - March 2016 (But I got better).

        I want to live forever. So far, so good.

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        • Re: 2017 NCAA tournament selection thread

          Is Endicott eligible for their conference tourney? (Silly question probably, but I'm curious). By their inclusion in the rankings I assume they are NCAA eligible.
          Steve
          Penn State Class of '95
          Plattsburgh State Class of '99

          If corn oil is made from corn, and vegetable oil is made from vegetables, then what is baby oil made from?

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          • Originally posted by spwood View Post
            Is Endicott eligible for their conference tourney? (Silly question probably, but I'm curious). By their inclusion in the rankings I assume they are NCAA eligible.
            They are a full member of the CCC - a recognized NCAA D-III multisport conference. Why shouldn't they be?

            And they played for the ECAC-NE title last season.
            CCT '77 & '78
            4 kids
            5 grandsons (BCA 7/09, CJA 5/14, JDL 8/14, JFL 6/16, PJL 7/18)
            1 granddaughter (EML 4/18)

            ”Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both.”
            - Benjamin Franklin

            Banned from the St. Lawrence University Facebook page - March 2016 (But I got better).

            I want to live forever. So far, so good.

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            • Re: 2017 NCAA tournament selection thread

              Originally posted by joecct View Post
              They are a full member of the CCC - a recognized NCAA D-III multisport conference. Why shouldn't they be?

              And they played for the ECAC-NE title last season.
              I was just asking. I haven't followed Endicott hockey much... The Oswego folks were discussing their Pool C chances against Endicott in their thread.
              Steve
              Penn State Class of '95
              Plattsburgh State Class of '99

              If corn oil is made from corn, and vegetable oil is made from vegetables, then what is baby oil made from?

              Comment


              • Originally posted by spwood View Post
                I was just asking. I haven't followed Endicott hockey much... The Oswego folks were discussing their Pool C chances against Endicott in their thread.
                As long as Endicott is ranked above Oswego, the Gulls will be getting in before the Lakers.
                CCT '77 & '78
                4 kids
                5 grandsons (BCA 7/09, CJA 5/14, JDL 8/14, JFL 6/16, PJL 7/18)
                1 granddaughter (EML 4/18)

                ”Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both.”
                - Benjamin Franklin

                Banned from the St. Lawrence University Facebook page - March 2016 (But I got better).

                I want to live forever. So far, so good.

                Comment


                • Re: 2017 NCAA tournament selection thread

                  Originally posted by NUProf View Post
                  Unfortunately that concept was the one that actually was viable. The biggest issue with all of this is the fact that you can hurt your own profile by winning a game. If you are playing a team near the bottom of the rankings (such as 9 or 10 E) and you win, with your win causing them to fall out of the rankings, you hurt your own case and just as perversely if you had lost to one of those teams, somebody else beating them and knocking them out of the ratings will help you - because your RNK percentage will go up. If the team stayed ranked, their effect on your profile remains. It's a crazy system.
                  Agreed, Prof... You'd think they'd at least adjust the RNK criterion to eliminate the possibility of hurting yourself via winning any game.

                  IMO, the RNK criterion shouldn't even exist in the first place... It's a "cliff", a la the old D-1 TUC construct, and a cliff should never exist in an equitable statistical model; every team should be evaluated along a continuum that includes every result. (But, of course, the committee can toss it out as a "factor", then weight it however they please, including the possibility of not affording it any weight at all.)

                  A crazy system, indeed.
                  Last edited by Fishman'81; 02-16-2017, 04:26 PM.

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                  • Re: 2017 NCAA tournament selection thread

                    Should Colby be a ranked school?
                    Should Williams be dropped?
                    CCT '77 & '78
                    4 kids
                    5 grandsons (BCA 7/09, CJA 5/14, JDL 8/14, JFL 6/16, PJL 7/18)
                    1 granddaughter (EML 4/18)

                    ”Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both.”
                    - Benjamin Franklin

                    Banned from the St. Lawrence University Facebook page - March 2016 (But I got better).

                    I want to live forever. So far, so good.

                    Comment


                    • Re: 2017 NCAA tournament selection thread

                      Originally posted by joecct View Post
                      Should Colby be a ranked school?
                      Should Williams be dropped?
                      Neither should be ranked. While statistically the NESCAC may benefit by producing high SOS within the conference, both teams have non-conference performance (2-2-1), (3-3-0) below what you would hope for in a ranked team. And their soon to be used RNK (.500), (.357) against last weeks ranked teams will compete poorly in one-on-one comparisons.
                      The "Miracle" was winning the Gold Medal Game against the Finns. I'm biased, I was there.

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                      • Re: 2017 NCAA tournament selection thread

                        Originally posted by peddler View Post
                        Neither should be ranked. While statistically the NESCAC may benefit by producing high SOS within the conference, both teams have non-conference performance (2-2-1), (3-3-0) below what you would hope for in a ranked team. And their soon to be used RNK (.500), (.357) against last weeks ranked teams will compete poorly in one-on-one comparisons.
                        The SOS ranking from in-conference games is always 0.500. Your SOS is really determined by 2 things - who you play outside your conference, and the success that your fellow conference members have outside of the conference. I haven't seen the conference vs. conference success rate this season, but my guess is that Middlebury and the the other teams at the bottom of the NESCAC will drag down the SOS of the NESCAC as a whole.
                        2007-2008 ECAC East/NESCAC Interlock Pick 'em winner
                        2007-2008 Last Person Standing Winner,
                        2013-2014 Last Person Standing Winner (tie)
                        2016-2017 Last Person Standing Winner

                        Comment


                        • Re: 2017 NCAA tournament selection thread

                          Originally posted by NUProf View Post
                          The SOS ranking from in-conference games is always 0.500. Your SOS is really determined by 2 things - who you play outside your conference, and the success that your fellow conference members have outside of the conference. I haven't seen the conference vs. conference success rate this season, but my guess is that Middlebury and the the other teams at the bottom of the NESCAC will drag down the SOS of the NESCAC as a whole.
                          And where at this point would you expect to acquire SOS of any (viable in terms of NCAA criteria) kind?
                          The "Miracle" was winning the Gold Medal Game against the Finns. I'm biased, I was there.

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                          • Re: 2017 NCAA tournament selection thread

                            Originally posted by peddler View Post
                            And where at this point would you expect to acquire SOS of any (viable in terms of NCAA criteria) kind?
                            It will not be available until Tuesday afternoon again. The links on the NCAA Regional Rankings page now revert to stats from 2011.


                            "FEAR THE BIRD!"

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                            • Re: 2017 NCAA tournament selection thread

                              Originally posted by Birdwatcher View Post
                              It will not be available until Tuesday afternoon again. The links on the NCAA Regional Rankings page now revert to stats from 2011.
                              I have to say that, despite the lack of a bulletproof selection process that defines every aspect by weight, I miss having SOS and other "pairwise" info available on this site for D3 teams.
                              The "Miracle" was winning the Gold Medal Game against the Finns. I'm biased, I was there.

                              Comment


                              • Re: 2017 NCAA tournament selection thread

                                Originally posted by peddler View Post
                                And where at this point would you expect to acquire SOS of any (viable in terms of NCAA criteria) kind?


                                To maximize OWP, schedule teams out of conference that are going to have good winning percentages and make sure the rest of your league schedules bottom feeders. This means you get the benefit of the schedule of your OOC opponents, and of with the rest of your league beating up on dreck, their winning percentage goes up. For example, you play games against the top of the CCC and the MASCAC and encourage the rest of your league to play the bottom feeders in those leagues. OOWP is harder to manipulate, but again if your opponents play teams in the less robust leagues, they will end up with OWPs close to 0.500 for the non conference portion of their schedule. You don't have to play good teams to get a good SOS metric - just make sure you pick and choose carefully.
                                Last edited by NUProf; 02-19-2017, 04:44 PM.
                                2007-2008 ECAC East/NESCAC Interlock Pick 'em winner
                                2007-2008 Last Person Standing Winner,
                                2013-2014 Last Person Standing Winner (tie)
                                2016-2017 Last Person Standing Winner

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