Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

[The Zlax45]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

Ok, I think I ran all the scenario's correctly under the assumption PC sweeps Amherst


Lowell wins tomorrow night

~BU takes 4 points, 1. BU, 2. Lowell, 3. BC, 4. PC or Notre Dame
~BU takes 3 points, 1. BU, 2. Lowell, 3. BC, 4. Notre Dame (wins the possible TB with PC)
~BU takes 2 points, 1. Lowell, 2. BU, 3. BC. 4. Notre Dame
~BU takes 1 point, 1. Lowell, 2. BC, 3. Notre Dame 4. BU
~BU takes 0 points, 1. Notre Dame, 2. Lowell, 3. BC, 4. BU

Lowell and BC tie
~BU takes 4 points, the standings end up 1. BU, 2. Lowell, 3. BC 4. PC or Notre Dame or maybe UVM (I'll leave this to Todd's thread cause I think we all only care what happens to Lowell
~BU takes 3 Points, 1. BU, 2. Lowell 3. BC 4. Notre Dame 5. PC/UVM
~BU takes 2 points, 1. BU, 2. Lowell (wins three way tie since BC and ND split and Lowell and ND split) 3. BC (wins second TB on H2H with ND) 4. Notre Dame 5. PC/UVM
~BU takes 1 point, 1. Notre Dame 2. Lowell 3. BU 4. BC 5. PC/UVM
~BU takes 0 points, 1. Notre Dame 2. Lowell 3. BC 4. BU/Providence

Lowell loses to BC
~ BU takes 4 points, 1. BU, 2. BC, 3. PC 4. Lowell 5. Notre Dame
~ BU takes 3 points 1. BU, 2. BC, 3. PC 4. Lowell 5. Notre Dame
~ BU takes 2 points 1. BU, 2. BC, 3. Notre Dame 4. Providence 5. Lowell
~ BU takes 1 point 1. BC, 2. Notre Dame 3. BU 4. PC 5. Lowell
~ BU takes 0 points 1. Notre Dame, 2. BC, 3. BU, 4. PC, 5. Lowell

If BU takes four and PC sweeps their series with UMass, they overtake Notre Dame in that scenario every single time.

[UML Puck Hawk]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

If BU takes four and PC sweeps their series with UMass, they overtake Notre Dame in that scenario every single time.

Yeah, when I first did this I was leaving the PC one open to debate so I wouldn't need to do the more messy tiebreaks (thus noting I would leave that to todd) Halfway through I realized we live in a just universe, so PC is going to sweep, but never went back to fix things

[The Zlax45]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

No big deal....just making sure you saw!

[LTI Alum]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

If BC and Lowell ties, BC beats Lowell by 2 pts

[UML Puck Hawk]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

If BC and Lowell ties, BC beats Lowell by 2 pts

yes, I have since edited

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

After Thu Feb 23:
UML 4 @ BC 1

Fri Feb 24:
ND @ BU
NU @ ME
PC @ UMA
BC @ UML
CT @ UNH
MC @ UVM

Sat Feb 25:
ND @ BU
NU @ ME
UMA @ PC
UNH @ CT
MC @ UVM

BC	29 - 31	[1-3]
BU	27 - 31	[1-4]

--- Bye Lock – 27 (PC tb) ---

UML	27 - 29	[1-5]
ND	26 - 30	[1-5]
PC	23 - 27	[3-8]

--- Bye Eligible - 26 (ND) ---

UVM

22 - 26

[5-8]

--- Home Lock – 22 (UNH tb) ---
--------- Bleen Line --------------

MC	20 - 24	[5-9]
NU	19 - 23	[6-9]
UNH	18 - 22	[7-10]
CT	16 - 20	[7-10]

--- R1 Road - 19 (UNH/CT + NU tb) ---

ME	10 - 14	[11]
UMA	5 - 9	[12]

Remaining schedules {HE games left}:
BC - @UML {1}
BU - NDx2 {2}
UML - BC {1}
ND - @BUx2 {2}
PC - @UMA, UMA {2}
UVM - MCx2 {2}
MC - @UVMx2 {2}
NU - @MEx2 {2}
UNH - CT, @CT {2}
CT - @UNH, UNH {2}
ME - NUx2 {2}
UMA - PC, @PC {2}

UML's fairly convincing win over BC at Conte last night keeps alive the 1 seed for both UML and ND. BU now is the team that controls its own fate for the top spot, as BC must wait out the BU/ND results. Should BC and UML tie or UML win, ND could also control its own fate, but we will know the first BU/ND result (and, so, which of those two - if either - is still in control for #1) before the BC/UML game finishes.

---
With the loss, BC's max now drops to 31. That is the same as BU's, but BU has the TB H2H and no other teams could reach 31. With another loss, BC will stay at 29 and be tied by UML (losing the H2H tb) and also caught or passed by the BU/ND winner. BU/ND will either end up 31/26, 30/27, 29/28, 28/29, or 27/30.

If BC and UML are H2H at 29, UML gets the higher seed by virtue of this weekend's sweep. If they are paired at 29, then either BU or ND is past them for the top, so this is a TB to decide 2/3. As we saw last time, if BU joins them in a menage a seed, BC is dropped to 3 on RRR, and UML takes BU on wins. UML/BU/BC. If ND joins UML/BC at 29, we saw that that goes UML (3-1-0 record vs 2-2-0 ND and 1-3-0 BC), then BC on wins, so UML/BC/ND.

If BC/UML tie, BC could only be caught by one of BU or ND. BU could win outright at 31, or win the TB at 30. We saw last time that in a tie at 30, ND and BC split H2H and match wins. UML would pass BU for 3rd, so BC's 1-of-4 vs UML loses to ND's split. ND/BC/UML/BU.

If BC and BU are at 31 (BC wins finale, BU sweeps), then UML is at 27 and ND is at 26. PC could also be at 27 Max, and so is still in the mix for a Bye. The Friars swept UML, so in a H2H at 27 (UML loses finale to BC, PC sweeps UMA), PC gets promoted. This gives us a possible seeding of BU/BC/PC/UML/ND.

If BC wins, they only miss 1st if BU sweeps.
If BC loses, they cannot be 1st, and might be 3rd.
If BC ties, they are 2nd to a BU sweep, a ND sweep, or a BU/ND 3/1 split. That means a BC/UML tie tonight leaves the league title in flux between two teams (BC/BU or BC/ND) on Saturday, no matter the outcome of the BU/ND game earlier Friday.

So that's BC at 29, 30, and 31. A possible 1, 2, or 3 seed with one game left.

BC's loss also dropped them effectively to 20th place in the PWR. Their NC record is brutal. While the Eagles now have only five losses in the league, their 5-8 NC record gives them 13 losses overall. The next four teams (BU/UML/ND/PC) only have 9 overall and UVM has 10. NU, down in 8th, also has only 12.

The win brought UML up to 7th, just 22 points behind BU. Since the Terriers have played BC three times and UML only twice, that's a net drag on BU's RPI and cost them 10 points since last week.

---
For BU, it's win and take #1.

At 31, they only have to worry about a BC win to tie as co-champs. BU gets the 1 seed on the season sweep (2-0-0, not 3-0-0).
At 30, BU is 2nd if BC wins Fri, or is otherwise 1st (BC at 30 or 29).
At 29, BU is ahead of ND (28) and is either 2nd to the 3WT with UML/BC, or is 2nd to BC. So two points this weekend earns BU at least 2nd. A win Friday keeps BU alive for 1st.
At 28, BU is behind ND (29) and BC (29 or higher), and perhaps UML (27/28/29), but still ahead of PC. BU is 3rd or 4th. In a pair at 28, UML tops BU on wins (TB2).
At 27, BU is behind ND (30) and BC (29 or higher), and perhaps tied with UML and/or PC. We've seen that BU loses TB2 to UML H2H, but if we add PC to the mix, the PC sweep of UML lets BU move up to 3rd. If BU and PC are paired at 27 (UML wins or ties finale), BU wins on 1-0-1 H2H and is 4th.

---
For UML to have a shot at 1st - which they still do - they will need to beat BC tonight. They will also have to hope that BU/ND split in some fashion so that they end up 29/28 in some order. Doesn't matter which, as UML tops both 3WTs. Since a BU/ND 1-1-0 split would not be a surprising result, a UML win puts them with a good chance to top the table. They would be sitting at home tomorrow just hoping for the team that wins Friday to lose Saturday.

UML tying BC puts them at 28, behind BC and the BU/ND winner (each 29+), ahead of PC's Max (27), and either tied or ahead of the BU/ND loser (26-28). Even tied with either BU or ND here, UML wraps up 3rd, as UML split with both and would take either on TB2 (wins).

A UML loss (27) could put them behind the BU/ND loser (could be 28). They could also tie for 4/5 with PC (Max 27), which they would lose with PC's H2H sweep, meaning UML could still be 5th. They are now out of reach of UVM's Max (26), so can't fall lower than that. In 3WTs with BU or ND plus PC, UML comes out BU/PC/UML (discussed) or ND/PC/UML (ND/PC 2-1-1 to UML's 1-3-0, so UML 5th, then ND over PC 1-0-1 H2H).

That said, with 27 in the bank, and winning the H2H TBs with BU or ND (that don't include PC's sweep), UML could still be as high as 3rd if PC gets dinged by UMA and BU/ND don't end up 29/28.

So, if UML wins they want BU/ND 29/28 so they could take top seed. If they lose, they don't want BU/ND 29/28, so they could get 3rd if PC isn't also at 27.

---
ND could beat everyone with a sweep of BU and a UML win. That's a top five of ND/UML/BC/BU/PC, regardless of how PC does.

At 30, but tied with BC, we've seen that that goes ND's way on record vs UML, so ND wins that co-champ seeding.

At 29, they are either behind BC (31 or 30) or tied with BC and UML. That's UML/BC/ND/BU/PC.

At 28, they are behind BC and BU, and either behind, ahead, or even with UML. Past PC though. Losing the H2H TB w/ UML, even is as good as behind, so ND is 3 or 4, but 4th unless UML loses to BC. So, on Fri: if ND loses (new Max 28) and UML doesn't, ND is 4th - or 5th if they lose again and PC sweeps.

At 27, they would lose the H2H with UML for 3rd, but top the 3WT if adding in PC. If UML joins BC and BU ahead of that mark, then ND is 4th if tied with PC.

ND's only vulnerability to losing the Bye is staying at 26 and PC sweeping to pass them 27/26. UVM can also catch them at 26 Max, but we saw last time that ND wins ties with either or both of PC and UVM, since ND went 1-0-1 against both and PC/UVM split 1-1-0 with each other.

---
Conversely, PC is looking like they will need the sweep to keep their Bye chances alive.

At 27, PC can take 4th and knock a 27-pt UML down to 5th, whether H2H or in a 3WT with either BU or ND (either of whom would end up 3rd). They can also be 4th by just passing ND if the Irish are swept. If ND is swept and PC catches UML, the Friars would be 3rd.

At 26, however, PC loses any TB to ND, with or without UVM, and BC/BU/UML already have 27+.

A PC/UVM tie at 26 for 5/6 would depend on who the top seeds are. PC would have the advantage if UML is tops (PC swept, UVM was swept), but PC has worse records than UVM against BC and BU. They match vs ND, so the order of the other three would decide this TB.

---
Since UVM can't get past ND and their Max is already behind BC/BU/UML, the Cats can no longer get a Bye. So we know that they are hosting a first round series, opponent TBD.

---
The UML/BC game only impacts these six teams, and only the upper end for PC and UVM, so we're done.

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

Ok, I think I ran all the scenario's correctly under the assumption PC sweeps Amherst


Lowell Beats BC
~BU takes 4 points, 1. BU, 2. Lowell, 3. BC, 4. PC 5. ND
~BU takes 3 points, 1. BU, 2. Lowell, 3. BC, 4. Notre Dame (wins the possible TB with PC) 5. PC
~BU takes 2 points, 1. Lowell, 2. BU, 3. BC. 4. Notre Dame 5. PC
~BU takes 1 point, 1. Lowell, 2. BC, 3. Notre Dame 4. BU 5. PC
~BU takes 0 points, 1. Notre Dame, 2. Lowell, 3. BC, 4. BU 5. PC

Lowell Ties BC
~BU takes 4 points, the standings end up 1. BU, 2. BC, 3. Lowell 4. PC 5. Notre Dame
~BU takes 3 Points, 1. BU, 2. BC 3. Lowell 4. Notre Dame 5. PC
~BU takes 2 points, 1. BC, 2. BU 3. Lowell 4. Notre Dame 5. PC
~BU takes 1 point, 1. BC 2. Notre Dame 3. Lowell 4. BU 5. PC
~BU takes 0 points, 1. Notre Dame 2. BC 3. Lowell 4. BU 5. PC

BC Beats Lowell
~ BU takes 4 points, 1. BU, 2. BC, 3. PC 4. Lowell 5. Notre Dame
~ BU takes 3 points 1. BU, 2. BC, 3. PC 4. Lowell 5. Notre Dame
~ BU takes 2 points 1. BU, 2. BC, 3. Notre Dame 4. Providence 5. Lowell
~ BU takes 1 point 1. BC, 2. Notre Dame 3. BU 4. PC 5. Lowell
~ BU takes 0 points 1. BC, 2. Notre Dame, 3. BU, 4. PC, 5. Lowell

Note: UVM could still be 5th over PC. Given that we are just seeding among these five and "5th" is relative, not necessarily the 5 seed, I'll check this out.

UML 29 / BC 29
~ BU 31, UML 29 (BC tb), BC 29, PC 27, ND 26
~ BU 30, UML over BC at 29, ND over PC at 27
~ UML/BU/BC at 29, ND 28, PC
~ UML/BC/ND at 29, BU 28, PC
~ ND 30, UML/BC at 29, BU over PC at 27
(matches your table)

UML 28 / BC 30
~ BU 31, BC 30, UML 28, PC 27, ND 26
~ BU/BC at 30, UML 28, ND over PC
~ BC 30, BU 29, UML/ND at 28, PC
~ BC 30, ND 29, UML/BU at 28, PC
~ ND/BC at 30, UML 28, BU over PC
(matches)

UML 27 / BC 31
~ BU/BC at 31, PC/UML at 27, ND 26
~ BC 31, BU 30, ND/PC/UML at 27
~ BC 31, BU 29, ND 28, PC/UML at 27
~ BC 31, ND 29, BU 28, PC/UML at 27
~ BC 31, ND 30, BU/PC/UML at 27
(Your 2nd and 3rd lines are off. Looks like you forgot to add BC's 2 points, so that BU taking 3 or 2 catches BC, when in fact they'd trail. Also, the 3WT at 27 - if BU gets 3, ND gets 1 to tie at 27 - for ND/PC/UML falls in that order.)

[TheRevengeance]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

Just want to say great job doing this. I did it for just Northeastern for just this week and it took a while, plus I confused myself 3-4 times. Doing it for every team for a month sounds brutal.

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

BU's loss means that they can no longer be 1st seed.

Two points on the weekend still gets them to 2nd, however, regardless of the BC/UML results.

ND's win jumps them up to second, a point ahead of BU and UML.

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

Just want to say great job doing this. I did it for just Northeastern for just this week and it took a while, plus I confused myself 3-4 times. Doing it for every team for a month sounds brutal.

Thanks.

Has it only been a month?

[chickod]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

Lowell/BC season over. Neither can exceed 29.
BU win: they join them with 29 (don't know the results of the 3-way tie)
ND win: they win the league outright with 30

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

BU's loss means that they can no longer be 1st seed.

Two points on the weekend still gets them to 2nd, however, regardless of the BC/UML results.

ND's win jumps them up to second, a point ahead of BU and UML.

The loss also drops BU out of a 2 seed in NCAA, down to 9th in PWR. Quite a fall from 3rd, only a couple of weeks ago.

ND moves up to a tie for 13th (14th).

With BU's fall, UML fills the void, moving up to 6th. PC is currently 11th.

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

After Fri Feb 24:
ND 3 @ BU 1
NU 5 @ ME 4 (OT)
PC 6 @ UMA 2
BC 1 @ UML 3
CT 5 @ UNH 3
MC 1 @ UVM 3

Sat Feb 25:
ND @ BU
NU @ ME
UMA @ PC
UNH @ CT
MC @ UVM

UML	29 - 29	[1-2]
BC	29 - 29	[2-3]
ND	28 - 30	[1/3/4]
BU	27 - 29	[2/4]

--- Bye Lock – 27 (PC tb) ---

PC	25 - 27	[5-6]
UVM	24 - 26	[5-6]
NU	21 - 23	[7-8]

--- Home Lock – 20 (UNH/CT tb) ---

--------- Bleen Line --------------

MC	20 - 22	[7-9]
CT	18 - 20	[8-10]
UNH	18 - 20	[8-10]

--- R1 Road - 20 (MC/UNH/CT) ---

ME	10 - 12	[11]
UMA	5 - 7	[12]

Remaining schedules {HE games left}:
UML - {0}
BC - {0}
ND - @BU {1}
BU - ND {1}
PC - UMA {1}
UVM - MC {1}
NU - @ME {1}
MC - @UVM {1}
CT - UNH {1}
UNH - @CT {1}
ME - NU {1}
UMA - @PC {1}

The final night with all twelve league teams playing. Not only for the season, but for the foreseeable future. Until such time as the league adds a replacement for ND, we won't see a night with six league games again.

With one night left in the RS, we still have very few places secured.

---
UMA is still 12th and ME still 11th.

---
CT draws even with UNH. Should either of the pair win tomorrow and MC lose, that winner will move up to 8th. Short of that, with NU topping ME in OT and moving to 21, these two are fighting it out for the 9/10 slots. With a tie, CT gets the TB H2H on the strength of the 3 pts this weekend.

---
MC could still be caught by either CT or UNH and would lose either TB. A point gets them at least 8th and a home series next weekend. A CT/UNH tie also gives MC 8th.

Since MC was swept by NU, they need to clear NU to move up. MC needs a win and a NU loss to hit 7th.

---
NU's win moves them out of reach of CT and UNH, so they are hosting next week. They will be 7th, unless they lose and MC wins to pass them.

---
UVM's win puts them out of reach of NU, MC, and UNH - meaning they can't fall below 6th. The only uncertainty for them is how they will fall re: PC for 5th or 6th.

---
PC's win lets them hit 27, but the ND and then UML wins leave them no one left to catch and pass for a Bye. Losing the tb to BU, PC cannot move above any of the top four teams, and is simply hoping to fend off UVM in the 5-6 battle.

PC and UVM split. If they tie at 25, UVM adds the tie, so PC takes the TB on wins. If they tie at 26, PC adds a tie to UML's win, so they match on wins for TB2 and the top seeding will decide this tie. The options for top seeds are now down to UML and ND. PC has the better record against UML, who wins any TBS at 29, if ND hits 30 for top seed, PC and UVM match records against ND, so it comes down to UML anyway. That means PC wins both TBs.

UVM's only chance to be 5th is to pass PC with a win and a PC loss... to UMA.

---
The top four are now the four Bye teams, seeds pending.

UML's win pulls them even with BC and with the TB. BC could hang a banner as co-champs, but can no longer be the top seed.

Similarly, BU's loss means they can only tie BC and UML at best. That tb goes UML/BU/BC, so the Terriers can also not be 1st, but have the chance to be co-champs and hang a banner (which they didn't used to do as co-champs... long story, but - IIRC - I think one year BU didn't hang a RS banner as the 1 seed, but UNH did as the 2.

With only game game left, we have three outcomes:
ND wins: ND 30, UML over BC at 29, BU at 27
ND/BU tie: UML/BC/ND at 29, BU at 28
BU wins: UML/BU/BC at 29, ND at 28

UML is 2, 1, or 1.
ND is 1, 3, or 4.
BC is 3, 2, or 3.
BU is 4, 4, or 2.

Looks like another year where BU might have to think about pulling the goalie late in a tie game - if Quinn values HE seeding more than NCAA PWR outcome.

Those that recall the end of last RS may remember UML, BU, and ND being in a tight TB going into the final weekend, where BU needed to match UML - whether sweep or swept - for the TBS in their favor, but UML needed a mixed bag if they remained tied. Ultimately, UML got the needed points from BC in their finale and BU couldn't manage to solve ND with a 1-0 loss in their finale. That sent BU into fifth, and back out to UML for the 4/5 series after winning the 5/12. It seemed that BU losing the Bye also had them losing their fight, as they were rolled by Lowell and crushed by Denver in their first round NCAA game. At least this year, BU knows they have the Bye.

---
It should be noted that ND has the chance to be the HE RS (and, of course, tourney) champ in their final year in HE. They are currently the reigning CCHA tourney champs, as they took 2nd in the CCHA's final RS and won the final tourney.

So, should ND win on Saturday, or win the HE tourney, they would start Big Ten play next year as the reigning champs - of some sort - of two different leagues while playing in a third.

In their prior three years in HE play, the have finished the RS at 7, 5, and 3. The pattern says they move to finish 1 in their final go-'round.

---
Current PWR standings for HE have UML at 6 with padding, BU in 8th by a whisker (2 RPI pts, which could change with a puff of breeze), PC at 11, Notre Dame at 15, UVM at 18, BC at 20 and NU at 23. With AFA below the bubble, 15 and 16 are vulnerable to the two small conference auto-bids, so HE would only be sending three, if the bids went out tonight.

[Craig P.]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

Small correction: Current PWR has ND 14th (not 15th), in a tie on comparison wins with North Dakota but trailing in RPI by 2 ten thousandths.

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

Small correction: Current PWR has ND 14th (not 15th), in a tie on comparison wins with North Dakota but trailing in RPI by 2 ten thousandths.

Yes. Which makes them 15th. NoDak is 14th, because they win the tb. - Note: those numbers were at press time. With the western games now done, that tied pair now shifts up to a tie for 13, making Notre Dame 14th on the under side of the tb.

Similar situations with other ties at 19 (BC trails, so is 20) or 11 (PC wins, dropping OSU to 12).