Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

[Go-UML]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

Thanks as always, Todd; these posts are amazingly helpful.

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

After Sat 2/11:
ND 4 @ ME 2
UMA 2 @ UML 4
UNH 3 @ UVM 5

Mon 2/13:
Beanpot is non-conference
NU v BC
HU v BU

Tue 2/14:
MC @ UMA

--- Bye Lock – 29 (ND/PC + UML) ---

BC	27 - 35	[1-6]
BU	24 - 32	[1-8]
ND	23 - 31	[1-8]
UML	23 - 29	[1-8]

--- Home Lock – 23 (RRR tbs) ---

PC	22 - 30	[1-9]
UVM	20 - 28	[1-10]

--------- Bleen Line --------------

UNH	17 - 25	[3-10]
CT	16 - 24	[3-11]
MC	15 - 25	[3-11]

--- Bye Eligible - 23 (RRR tbs) ---

NU

15 - 23

[5-11]

--- R1 Road - 17 (UNH tb) ---

ME	9 - 17	[9-12]
UMA	5 - 13	[11-12]

Remaining schedules (NC) {HE games left}:
BC - (v NU), UVMx2, UML, @UML {4}
BU - (v HU), UNH, @UNH, NDx2 {4}
ND - PCx2, @BUx2 {4}
UML - @UMA, @BC, BC {3}
PC - @NDx2, @UMA, UMA {4}
UVM - @BCx2, MCx2 {4}
UNH - @BU, BU, CT, @CT {4}
CT - NU, @NU, @UNH, UNH {4}
MC - @UMA, MEx2, @UVMx2 {5}
NU - (v BC), @CT, CT, @MEx2 {4}
ME - @MCx2, NUx2 {4}
UMA - MC, UML, PC, @PC {4}

Saturday's results went to the higher seeds. ND and UML won and jumped back ahead of PC, while UVM won to maintain contact with the upper half and put a little distance on the bottom half.

With only four games remaining for most teams, the next two weekends each have two huge series in the top half. UVM takes a trip to BC next weekend, and ND hosts PC. The final weekend has the current top 4 playing each other with BU hosting ND and BC/UML in a H/H series. It should be noted that the PC series is the final RS HE weekend at Compton and the Irish play their final RS HE games ever at Agganis.

---
With four (UML has three) games left, each of the top five teams controls their own fate for a Bye, and the 6th is really close. Obviously, the teams with the top four Maxes do. Win out and you're still in the top four. However, even though UML only has three games left, they still have a Max of 29. With ND(31)/PC(30) playing two, at least one of those has to drop to 28, meaning UML can win out and get at least 4th.

UVM, at Max 28, can set up a nearly comparable scenario and doesn't quite control their own fate, but needs the stars to align to not do so. If they hit 28, it means that they swept BC and knocked the Eagles' Max from 35 to 31. Then, when BC and UML play the final weekend, every result but one has one of them dropping below 28. If UML sweeps, that means that BC has gone 0-for-5 to finish the RS and stays at 27, and below UVM's chance at 28. If BC takes a game or more, they have cleared UVM's Max of 28, but UML has a Max of 27 or lower. If UML takes 3-of-4, both BC and UML would be at 28 with UVM. Then UML would be 3-0-1 in the trio, get promoted, and leave UVM to top BC with the sweep from the week before. So, UVM can pass either BC or UML on their own. But BU, ND, PC, and BC/UML could still be ahead of them.

Or could they? ND(31) plays both of BU(32) and PC(30). For ND and PC to both be able to top UVM's Max after they meet, it's either ND(29)/PC(28), or ND(28)/PC(29). Then ND has to play BU. So that either knocks ND below UVM's Max, or brings BU down to 29 or 28, depending on where the ND/PC series leaves ND for wiggle room. That interplay could knock either of PC or ND (or both) below UVM, or draw BU down into a tie (all of which assumes that UNH and UMA haven't dinged BU and PC, respectively). We could get some combination of 29/28/28 among BU/ND/PC.

In the tbs and RRRs, UVM has split with both BU and PC. Assume that's the tie at 28, BU/PC/UVM (meaning ND could be 29). The three teams currently have the same number of ties (so also could match wins). BU and UVM would have swept BC (if they are top seed), but PC was swept by BC. PC would get dropped, and UVM would be ahead of both PC and UML (if BC is top seed and UVM is at 28, then UML lost the BC series). The pending BU/UVM tie would be for 3/4, and we would move to record vs ND at 2. UVM went 0-1-1 against ND, but BU might have done the same or worse to be at 28. That still has some flex, so we can't decide this yet. If UML is the top seed (and BC is under the tie breakers at 27), then PC swept UML and gets promoted (BU split, UVM was swept). That puts us back to the TBD TB between BU and UVM.

If it's BU and ND at 28 with UVM (and PC at 29 above), then ND would have winning records against both BU and UVM and get promoted up. Now we're back to the BU/UVM tb we just looked at twice, but it's for 4/5 (BC/UML, PC, ND ahead).

All of this means that we can't be sure whether UVM controls their own fate. Which means that they don't, because there is still some muddiness whether they might not. But it's really, really close. We don't want to be in the situation that NESN was in a couple of years ago (2012-13) where they said UNH had cliched home ice, but forgot to include the possibility of UNH tying in the afternoon of the final day and losing a 3WT. Oops... If only they read this thread, because we all knew they were wrong. But if I had a dollar for every time Tom Caron said something wrong about a college hockey stat or factoid, I'd be retired and living in Belize right now.

If someone wants to take the above thinking further into all the possible point distributions and possible seeds to show that UVM has, in fact, control over their own fate, be my guest. Otherwise, I'll just wait until a) UVM loses, b) BU loses points to UNH, which means we don't have points to spare at 29/28/28, c) the PC/ND Saturday game, if their split can't be 29/28 anymore, d) PC loses points to UMA, again breaking the 29/28/28 possibility, or e) the possibilities are limited enough that we can look to a narrower range of math.

So, what do we know for each team's range?

---
With ND, UML, and UVM all winning and BU/PC idle, idle BC's fortunes don't change. We knew these five were the only ones who could drop them to 6 and everyone playing won. Still same scenario as last post. Still a possible 5-way tie at 28 with BC at 27. BC stays 1-6.

---
We have a similar situation with BU. We know that they're ahead of UMA, ME, NU and the loser of CT/UNH.

UNH's loss only drops their Max to 25, but they can sweep CT, then BU and hit 25. They even have room to drop a point to CT and win the tb w/ BU at 24.

MC (Max 25) and UVM (28) still have to play, but UVM won Saturday, leaving a UVM 25/MC 24 finish still possible. MC's sweep of BU would dump BU to 8th here, with or without UNH joining the tie at 24.

BU still 1-8.

---
ND and UML, at 23, have slipped into the space between BU (at 24) and PC (at 22). If BU'S 24 has them at 1-8, these two won't be any higher at 23, but could they move up to 1-9? Could they win tbs and match BU's 1-8?

Who is behind them already to be at 1-10? UMA and ME. The loser of the CT(24)/UNH(25) series Maxes at 22 or lower, so - yes - there is a third team that can't catch the pair and they move to 1-9. We've seen that UVM/MC can still both top 23. PC would be ahead if ND is at 23, by giving PC 4 more points, and BC and BU are already ahead. Five teams ahead and three below. One of these two could pass the other, so that's a 6th team ahead. The loser of UNH/CT is behind, but the winner could be ahead, so that's a 7th team ahead.

CT and NU also have to play, but if we have CT lose both the UNH and NU series, then UNH can top ND/UML and NU can tie.

That leaves both ND and UML with up to seven teams ahead, three definitely below and a possible tie with NU.

Lets look at each in turn to see if they have clinched 8th and a home series or can still be 9th at the bottom of a tie-break at 23.

(cont'd in next post)

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

(cont'd from last post)
---
UML's tb with NU H2H would go to UML on TB2: 1-1-0 split, UML has only 1 tie to NU's 3 (so UML would have more wins). For UML, we could add in any of MC, UNH, UVM, and one of PC or ND to try to put them at the bottom of the stack. We can't add CT because a) we need a loser of UNH/CT and b) if NU hits 23, then CT can't. It goes along with sacrificing CT to keep UNH and NU both up.

UML swept MC, UNH, and UVM, so those won't help. UML was swept by PC, but PC/NU split. That breaks the UML/NU tie in NU's favor (1-3-0 to 2-2-0), but it's even better for PC (3-1-0). PC gets promoted out of a 3WT and we're back to UVM over NU H2H. Maybe PC would help in a 4+WT, but let's finish the 3s. UML also split with ND, but ND took 3 from NU, so that doesn't help bury UML. The only teams that UML didn't sweep were PC and ND, but we can only have one of those. The only remaining thing that could help is keeping PC, which breaks the UML/NU tie in records in NU's favor, but adding a 4th team that pulls PC down and leaves UML at the bottom of the stack. Since UML swept everyone else, NU also has to take at least three to keep the lead on UML.

NU was swept by UVM and lost 3 to UNH (0-1-1). They did, however, match UML with a MC sweep. MC did take 3 from PC, so maybe this will work. If it doesn't, we've exhausted everything else. It should be noted that MC being swept by both NU and UML means they're unlikely to be promoted before either of those in a 4WT. Here's the grid:

RRRs	UML	MC	NU	PC	Total
UML:		2-0-0	1-1-0	0-2-0	3-3-0
MC:	0-2-0		0-2-0	1-0-1	1-4-1
NU:	1-1-0	2-0-0		1-1-0	4-2-0
PC:	2-0-0	0-1-1	1-1-0		3-2-1

That does promote NU out, which buries MC a little less. Removing the NU split leaves UML at .500. However, PC did manage a point from MC to go with their sweep of UML. That puts PC at 2-1-1 and MC at 1-2-1. PC gets promoted and UML takes the final tb with MC on their H2H sweep.

So we can not get UML to the bottom of any RRR and into 9th. UML is 1-8 and clinches a home series.

---
ND takes NU 1-0-1 H2H. For ND, we could add in any of MC, UNH, UVM, or UML to try to put them at the bottom of the stack. We can't add CT for the reasons above. We can't add PC because ND at 23 means PC at least at 26. ND split with MC and UML, and went 1-0-1 against UNH and UVM. If NU doesn't have a better record mixed into those opponents, we're done here.

NU swept MC. That 3WT would have NU 2-1-1, ND 2-1-1, and MC 1-3-0. That drops MC and puts us back to ND over NU. However, it does have NU make up the ground on ND H2H, and so is a good basis to add a 4th team. Since ND doesn't have a worse record than .500 against anyone here, and has a one game lead over NU H2H, we can't hope to have a better result for NU in a 3WT. We have to add a 4th (or more) if we're going to drop ND in the RRRs.

UML split with ND and NU and swept MC. That doesn't elevate NU and buries MC further behind ND.
UNH took 3 from NU while losing 3 to ND. UNH's record against MC (1-0-1) finishes moving everything in the wrong direction, by burying NU and MC further and elevating ND.
UVM also lost 3 to ND, so the only way to move up against the Irish is by sweeping UVM. MC could do that, but that only improves them 1 pt vs ND, and they need to make up more than that to get ahead. UML swept UVM, but they're already ahead of the pack (split, split, sweep + new sweep). NU actually loses ground to ND by a UVM sweep dropping them back.

So, no matter how we do it, we can't get ND behind a tie of any number of teams at 23. That puts another, fourth, team behind them.

ND has now moved up to 1-8 and clinched at least one final HE playoff series for the home fans in South Bend.

* (note: before I realized that CT couldn't be in the mix, I had us in a 6WT (ND/NU/MC/CT/UML/UVM) before proving that ND couldn't be caught. Then I had to redo the whole thing for both UML - who got dropped to 9th by including CT - and ND - who doesn't need a 6WT breaker grid. Didn't need that two hours anyway...)

---
The next one is mercifully short, if we have CT lose to both UNH and NU, then PC - at 22 - can be behind everyone but UMA, ME, and CT. PC stays 1-9.

---
The squeeze is getting tighter for UVM, but they can still top the table solo at 28. Either a UVM win or a ME loss would mean ME couldn't catch UVM. Both happened, and that remains true. Other than that, we've seen that everyone else but the CT/UNH loser can be above 23. Can we get all of UNH, CT and NU to be above UVM at 20? Sure. If UNH sweeps BU, that puts them at 21. That leaves CT free to sweep UNH up to 20. CT can take a point or two from NU, who can pick up the rest from Maine to have them all top 20. UVM is 1-10.

---
For UNH, one of BU or ND now has to top 25. Also, one of ND or PC has to reach it. If we let ND take both, then we can limit the damage to UNH's seeding be limited to trailing two for a range ceiling of 3.

As for their floor, it's a tie at 17 with ME, which they swept. Can we add anyone to that tie to drop UNH to 11? The top six are already ahead of 17. If UNH is at 17, CT has passed it. UMA is already too low and we're already accounting for ME. That leaves NU and/or MC.

Since ME is already down 2 games to UNH, adding one team won't do better than tie UNH, so let's go for the whole shootin' match at once. To hit 17, MC would have to sweep both MC and NU. That gives ME a 4-2-0 record, which is good. UNH went 1-0-1 against both MC and NU, which puts them at 4-0-2, which is better. UNH can't come out of the bottom of a tie at 17 for 11th. UNH is now 3-10.

---
For CT, we run into the same BU/ND and ND/PC issue, except that BU is already at CT's Max of 24. If we let BU take the BU/ND points to get ahead of the tie, we still have to deal with ND/PC winner being at 25 or higher. So CT's best chance is the ND runaway and a tie with BU or others. CT and BU split H2H, but BU wins on TB2 (2 ties to 4). Is there anyone that CT did better than BU against that wouldn't be promoted out first of a 3WT - and can hit 24? Yep. CT took 3 from UML, but BU split. CT 2-1-1, BU 2-2-0, UML 1-2-1. CT gets 3rd.

For CT to be at 16, NU would pass them H2H. MC would only need 2 pts and ME could still pass them by winning out. CT stays put at 3-11.

---
MC still has an anomalous five games left, so their ceiling matches UNH's, but their floor is below CT's. Like UNH their ceiling is 3. Even though they are below CT, they now can't be caught by UMA after the Minutemen's loss, so their floor is, like CT's, 11.

---
NU also has to deal with the BU/ND, ND/PC issue, except that BU is already past them and ND and UML are already at 23. We've already seen that NU loses H2H with each of ND and UML. If they lose to each independently, they won't be promoted first out of a 3WT either. We've also seen that a PC/UVM/NU split goes in that order, so adding PC doesn't help. Adding ND to that mix doesn't help NU. Further, as we have seen, adding UVM and/or UNH doesn't help NU. Adding MC helps NU against ND, but not against UML.

In sum: BC and BU are already out of reach. ND and UML are already at 23, and either PC or ND has to be above that. Keeping ND at 23 doesn't help NU in any RRRs, so might as well keep PC below. Still, NU can't get past UML either. For all the reasons that ND and UML can't drop to 9th, it's tiebreakers with NU, et al. that were the deciding factor. The reciprocal of that is that NU can't pass either, can't get to 4th, and can't get a Bye. NU is playing somewhere the first weekend, but not at Mullins. Range 5-11.

---
The ME loss dropped them behind all of the top six, plus the UNH/CT winner (19+). They also now have to be behind the CT/NU winner (18+). That's eight teams they can't catch. If we have CT soak all the points, ME's best chance is to win the tb at 17 with UNH... except they were swept by UNH. UMA is too far back to help in a RRR. That leaves only NU or MC to move up to help with a 3WT, or both in a 4WT. As it turns out, those are the two teams that ME has left to play. ME at their Max means they swept both clubs. They need all the help they can get to dig out of the hole against UNH (who must be in the group). That grid goes:

RRRs	UNH	MC	NU	ME	Total
UNH:		1-0-1	1-0-1	2-0-0	4-0-2
MC:	0-1-1		0-2-0	0-2-0	0-5-1
NU:	0-1-1	2-0-0		0-2-0	2-3-1
ME:	0-2-0	2-0-0	2-0-0		4-2-0

As we saw in the UNH section, ME's 4-2-0 is good, but UNH's 4-0-2 is better. We can't get ME past UNH, which now makes the UNH/CT series irrelevant here. Assume UNH wins, since they can't be caught. All that's left to matter is the CT/NU winner and the CT/NU loser. ME can get past UMA, MC, and the CT/NU loser. That also means they can't host a series. Range: 9-12

---
UMA was already looking at ME as the only team they could catch. That is still true.

[x1g27s]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

Actually it looks like NU is still alive for a bye but it's a real long shot, it requires a 4-way tie for 4th at 23 points with NU, UML, MC, and PC. ND would go into top three. NU wins this tie with 4-2-0 record (PC 3-2-1, UML 3-3-0, MC 1-4-1). NU could also sweep its remaining games and end up 9th at 23 points. So they don't control very much.

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

Actually it looks like NU is still alive for a bye but it's a real long shot, it requires a 4-way tie for 4th at 23 points with NU, UML, MC, and PC. ND would go into top three. NU wins this tie with 4-2-0 record (PC 3-2-1, UML 3-3-0, MC 1-4-1). NU could also sweep its remaining games and end up 9th at 23 points. So they don't control very much.

So... that whole grid that I did at the top of the 2nd half of the prior post that proves your point? That scenario...?

Yep. Good catch.

[BC/HE]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

Correct me if I am wrong but with 3 games to go it is possible for a 5 way tie for first. Who would win that? A 5 way tie is possible at 28. BC loses all 3. PC wins 3. ND takes 3 points from BU. BU beats UNH. Lowell ties Amherst out there. It is not all that unlikely.

[LTI Alum]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

Correct me if I am wrong but with 3 games to go it is possible for a 5 way tie for first. Who would win that? A 5 way tie is possible at 28. BC loses all 3. PC wins 3. ND takes 3 points from BU. BU beats UNH. Lowell ties Amherst out there. It is not all that unlikely.

Extremely unlikely, but I like the way you think.

[LTI Alum]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

BU 4-2-2
ND 4 -3-1
UML 4-4
PC 3-4-1
BC 3-5
I think this would be 1 thru 5

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

After Tue 2/14:
MC 3 @ UMA 0

Fri Feb 17:
UVM @ BC
UNH @ BU
ME @ MC
PC @ ND
NU @ CT

Sat Feb 18:
UVM @ BC
ME @ MC
PC @ ND
CT @ NU
UML @ UMA
BU @ UNH

--- Bye Lock – 29 (ND/PC + UML) ---

BC	27 - 35	[1-6]
BU	24 - 32	[1-8]
ND	23 - 31	[1-8]
UML	23 - 29	[1-8]

--- Home Lock – 23 (RRR tbs) ---

PC	22 - 30	[1-9]
UVM	20 - 28	[1-10]

--------- Bleen Line --------------

UNH	17 - 25	[3-10]
MC	17 - 25	[3-11]
CT	16 - 24	[3-11]
NU	15 - 23	[4-11]

--- Bye Eligible - 23 (RRR tbs) ---

--- R1 Road - 17 (UNH/MC/CT tb) ---

ME	9 - 17	[9-12]
UMA	5 - 11	[11-12]

Remaining schedules (NC) {HE games left}:
BC - UVMx2, UML, @UML {4}
BU - UNH, @UNH, NDx2 {4}
ND - PCx2, @BUx2 {4}
UML - @UMA, @BC, BC {3}
PC - @NDx2, @UMA, UMA {4}
UVM - @BCx2, MCx2 {4}
UNH - @BU, BU, CT, @CT {4}
MC - MEx2, @UVMx2 {4}
CT - NU, @NU, @UNH, UNH {4}
NU - @CT, CT, @MEx2 {4}
ME - @MCx2, NUx2 {4}
UMA - UML, PC, @PC {3}

For the sake of completeness, here's the standings after Tuesday's matchup. No hurry to get the results out because:
a) UMA - win or lose - doesn't really impact anyone but UMA and ME anymore. The UMA loss just makes it less likely for the two to swap seeds.
b) The MC win does jump them over CT, but otherwise doesn't change much. MC's Min is now ME's Max, but - as of Tuesday night - they still have two to play. If ME catches MC, they would have the TB with a sweep. This leaves MC still at 3-11.

The Road line changes a little because one would now have to beat the UNH/CT loser at 16 or higher and also pass/tie MC at 17.

I also corrected for dropping NU under Bye Eligible

---
Shortest.
Analysis.
Ever.

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

After Fri Feb 17:
UVM 3 @ BC 3 (OT)
UNH 4 @ BU 4 (OT)
ME 3 @ MC 4 (OT)
PC 1 @ ND 4
NU 3 @ CT 0

Sat Feb 18:
UVM @ BC
ME @ MC
PC @ ND
CT @ NU
UML @ UMA
BU @ UNH

BC

28 - 34

[1-4]

--- Bye Lock – 28 (RRR tbs) ---

BU	25 - 31	[1-6]
ND	25 - 31	[1-6]
UML	23 - 29	[1-8]

--- Home Lock – 23 (RRR tbs) ---

PC	22 - 28	[2-9]
UVM	21 - 27	[3-9]

--------- Bleen Line --------------

MC	19 - 25	[3-10]
UNH	18 - 24	[4-10]
NU	17 - 23	[4-10]

--- Bye Eligible - 23 (RRR tbs) ---

CT

16 - 22

[6-10]

--- R1 Road - 17 (UNH/MC/CT tb) ---

ME	9 - 15	[11-12]
UMA	5 - 11	[11-12]

Remaining schedules (NC) {HE games left}:
BC - UVM, UML, @UML {3}
BU - @UNH, NDx2 {3}
ND - PC, @BUx2 {3}
UML - @UMA, @BC, BC {3}
PC - @ND, @UMA, UMA {3}
UVM - @BC, MCx2 {3}
MC - ME, @UVMx2 {3}
UNH - BU, CT, @CT {3}
CT - @NU, @UNH, UNH {3}
NU - CT, @MEx2 {3}
ME - @MC, NUx2 {3}
UMA - UML, PC, @PC {3}

UVM scored three unanswered to match BC's trio at Conte. Being outshot 8-2 and trailing 2-0, BU outshot UNH 42-18 for the rest of the game and wrested a 4-4 tie at Agganis. After giving up two goals :20 apart, MC trailed 3-0 at home - then scored three straight to draw OT and scored their fourth unanswered in OT for the win. ND turned a squeaker with PC into a blowout with three unanswered in the 3rd at home. NU scored three unanswered because CT didn't score at all in the 3-0 decision at Matthews.

So four of the five Friday games had strings of 3+ goals scored by at least one of the teams (UVM and BC both did it, as did ME/MC), while BU played "two for you, two for me, two for you, two for me" with UNH.

We have also, at three games left, finally cleared up all the GIH differences. BC and UML will throw that off next week as their series is Thu-Fri with everyone else having Fri-Sat RS finales.

---
We have been talking about BC looking up at a 28-point logjam, but now they have reached 28 themselves. So where does the Eagles' range fall after Friday?

For starters, they are now out of reach of UVM, so at worst has to deal with four other teams (BU, ND, UML, PC), making their floor 5th place before we look at TBs. We can get the top three of them to 29, but if we can't get the Eagles behind all four, BC has wrapped up a Bye.

With Maxes of 31(BU), 31(ND), 29(UML) and 28(PC), it seems like there might be some flexibility there. However, with all three of ND's remaining games being against other teams in this mix, that eats up six points that ND/BU/PC have to lose. There are only seven points to spare above 28 among the four, and zero on PC's end. That said, BU and ND have the most leeway, so we should have room for a massive RR.

To get BC under all four, we need PC to win out (28) and get ahead of BC in TBs. PC beating ND drops the Irish Max to 29. That leaves ND with only one point to spare against BU. BU dropping three points to ND, gives BU a Max of 28 to match PC and ND. BC still being at 28 means UML is already at 27 with a sweep. This leaves us two options to try BC at 5. Either BC is tied with BU/PC/ND at 28 and UML rises up to 29, or we have a five-way RR at 28 with a UML/UMA tie. The Minutemen could still impact first place!

Let's go to the grids...

Given that UML would sweep BC, I'm going to start with the 5WT, as it is less advantageous to BC. BC swept PC, but was swept by BU and UML, so if we can pull PC up early, we might have a shot.

RRRs	BC	BU	ND	UML	PC	Total
BC:		0-2-0	1-1-0	0-2-0	2-0-0	3-5-0
BU:	2-0-0		0-1-1	1-1-0	1-0-1	4-2-2
ND:	1-1-0	1-0-1		1-1-0	1-1-0	4-3-1
UML:	2-0-0	1-1-0	1-1-0		0-2-0	4-4-0
PC:	0-2-0	0-1-1	1-1-0	2-0-0		3-4-1

Even with ND taking 3-of-4 at the end, BU tops this group at 4-2-2 and leaves BC at the bottom. However, the league doesn't do all-at-once tie-breaks - which I have always thought they should if it is available. Instead we have to promote/demote one team at a time and recalc the remainders. With PC only a point ahead of BC, I'm worried about the Friars. Pulling BU drops a 0-2-0 from BC, but also a 0-1-1 from PC - which eats the point we just talked about.

New grid:

RRRs	BC	ND	UML	PC	Total
BC:		1-1-0	0-2-0	2-0-0	3-3-0
ND:	1-1-0		1-1-0	1-1-0	3-3-0
UML:	2-0-0	1-1-0		0-2-0	3-3-0
PC:	0-2-0	1-1-0	2-0-0		3-3-0

Yikes! Everyone at 3-3-0. However, we still have the other TBs, and BC doesn't fare well against now top seed BU. BC/UML/PC would all have the same number of wins (BC and PC at 2 ties and UML would have to add one to their current 1), but ND would be down a notch (3 ties +1 for 4). Here, the league would historically drop ND, which means the Eagles can't be 5th here.

Still, since this could come up in the other teams' futures, let's finish.

Dropping ND has no impact on the RR results, as ND split 1-1-0 with everyone in the 4WT. No new grid, just move everyone to 2-2-0. We know they all split on wins as well. That moves us to TB3. BU swept BC, went 1-0-1 vs PC and split 1-1-0 with UML. Here, a .500 record is the best of the bunch, so UML gets promoted. That saves BC as the sweep of the Friars moves BC up into 3rd. If PC had the best results against BU, then promoting PC would leave BC under the UML sweep for 4th.

Final outcome of this 5WT for 1st (it's like Oprah came to about half the league and said "ev-ry-buh-dee-gets-a-banner!"): BU/UML/BC/PC/ND

In the 4WT, with UML at 29, we take away BC's sweep by UML, and also two of PC's three wins with their sweep of UML. Not promising, as I can't see how PC gets above .500. They'll need TB3 to help out.

Here's the 4WT grid:

RRRs	BC	BU	ND	PC	Total
BC:		0-2-0	1-1-0	2-0-0	3-3-0
BU:	2-0-0		0-1-1	1-0-1	3-1-2
ND:	1-1-0	1-0-1		1-1-0	3-2-1
PC:	0-2-0	0-1-1	1-1-0		1-4-1

Once again, BU gets promoted by a point over ND. With UML and BU out of the mix, we've now pulled four of the five losses BC had in the 5WT. BC moves to 3-1-0, ND is 2-2-0 and PC is 1-3-0. BC 3rd. ND/PC H2H split goes to wins, which puts PC 4 and ND 5.

In review: In these ties, BU gets promoted out of the stack first. Even though it's only by a single point over ND, since the league doesn't do all-at-once, ND continues to fall though the stack at each turn until they end up at the bottom. Seems unfair, but that's how they do it. Ultimately, BU and UML grab the top two slots (order depending on UML at 28 or 29), then 3/4/5 goes BC/PC/ND.

The Eagles have clinched a Bye. What a difference a point makes...

(cont'd in next post)

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

(cont'd from last post)
---
With BU and ND each moving up to 25, there are now five teams that can't catch them. Further, for MC to pull even at 25, that would take 4 from UVM's Max, so one of those two also cannot hit 25. Each could still fall to 6th.

This is an interesting pair at this point. They play two to end the RS, so it's important to have the edge going into that series in case there's a split. When BC and UML play next week, the winner of BU/ND will be rooting for UML to help them catch BC, but the loser could be rooting for BC (did I just type that?) to help stave off UML. Lurking in the background, PC is playing UMA twice, so may grab four points on the weekend themselves. So, does BU hope that ND can put a stake in PC tonight, or hope that ND gets dinged so BU could have the edge going into next weekend?

UVM and MC and even UNH are still in the mix for a Bye, but it's looking more and more like last year's scenario where we had five teams fighting for four Byes. It could get ugly if, once again, BU needs a single point from the final game and ND holds on, whether 1-0 (as last year) or any other score. At least this time, these two won't be scoreboard watching BC/UML since that series will be done on Fri.

---
UML can pick up four of five points on BC on their own on next week, but they need help from UVM tonight to have a shot at the 1 seed. They also have to hope that BU/ND isn't a sweep either way, and could use some help from PC and UNH tonight to give a little wiggle room. However we slice it, at five points back with three games to play, UML still has a shot at first. At 23, UML can still fall as low as a tie with NU at 8/9. We saw last week that we can't get UML behind a TB and into 9th, and none of that has changed. UML hasn't played in the interim and is still 1-8.

---
PC is now, at best, co-champs at 28. We've seen that they don't get the top seed in the big 4/5WTs at 28 that we already covered. In fact, they barely hold on to a Bye.

How high can we get them?

On raw points, we can get them into a tie at 28 with BC with everyone else at 27 or lower. But BC swept them, so they top out at 2nd in the H2H.

If we add in UML, that could take care of balancing the BC sweep, but we saw that that goes UML/BC/PC, which is worse. Is there anyone we can add that gives PC an advantage over BC/UML, but doesn't get promoted first? Well, PC would split with ND, but they already split with BC and UML, and we've seen how that goes (ND gets dropped and we're back to BC/UML/PC). If we add BU, that's better for PC against BC, but not against UML. In any event, BU would get promoted first (4-1-1), so PC isn't better off there.

The best we can get PC is the 2 seed and co-champs, as in the first scenario.

As a floor, we're still looking at UMA, ME, and the CT/UNH loser as the teams that can't pass them. Until PC adds points or NU (or CT/UNH) drop more, that won't change.

---
With a Max of 27, UVM now can't catch BC's 28. With BU/ND at 25 with a pair ahead, they can either let one of those two go and hit 3rd, or hope to top out a 3WT at 27. But, UVM split with BU and lost 3-of-4 to ND. Sub-.500 doesn't bring you to the top of that RRR. Adding their split with PC doesn't help. UVM tops out at 3rd.

With 21 in the bank, UVM can't be caught by UMA, ME and the CT/NU loser. That moves their floor up to 9.

---
MC jumps a second spot in as many games by leapfrogging UNH. This also puts them clear of ME and the 11 slot.

At the upper end, MC's Max of 25 and BU/ND ahead means that MC can't catch BC or the BU/ND winner. If we have ND sweep BU, MC takes the H2H TB with their sweep. Everyone else can stay behind 25, so MC can still get 3rd.

---
With 24 Max, UNH can't reach BC/BU/ND, but they could slip in above UML and the rest of the field to take the 4th slot. They could also be caught by both NU and CT, despite those two having another game to play.

---
As a floor, NU is now out of reach of the bottom pair. On the top end, even though I built a grid to show it last week, I spaced on seeing that NU could still get the 4th seed atop a 4WT with UML/PC/MC. Eagle-eyed x1g27s caught that slip. That tie can still happen, so NU can still be 4th and get a Bye.

---
With Max 22, however, CT can't.

Four teams are past them. They could tie PC. UVM and MC could either both join that tie at 22, or one of them passes by. They could take care of NU and UNH along the way to limit the damage, but we could add in UNH at 22 (including a CT sweep), if needed.

First off, how does CT do vs PC H2H? They were swept. What about UVM and MC? Splits (1-1-0 and 0-0-2, respectively). The 4WT at 22, trying for 5th, isn't going to work out for CT, as they start off sub-.500.

What if we add in UNH to a 5WT? That balances out the PC sweep, but only draws CT up to .500. Unless everyone else is at .500, and CT comes out on top at TB2 or TB3, that doesn't get them to 5th either. Well, PC is 2-0-0, 1-1-0, 0-1-1 = 3-2-1 against CT, UVM, MC respectively. That's at least one team above .500, so CT doesn't top out there.

CT's only outcomes above .500 would be the UNH sweep and 1-0-1s against UMA (too low) and UML (too high). If we include PC, there just isn't room to make up the damage done by the sweep.

However, since we can't get CT past PC and into 5th, what if we let PC go and tried our luck for 6th with UVM/MC/UNH? Here's that grid:

RRRs	CT	MC	UVM	UNH	Total
CT:		0-0-2	1-1-0	2-0-0	3-1-2
MC:	0-0-2		1-0-1	0-1-1	1-1-4
UVM:	1-1-0	0-1-1		1-1-0	2-3-1
UNH:	0-2-0	1-0-1	1-1-0		2-3-1

That's the ticket. By adding UNH to CT's splits with UVM and MC, it puts CT two games over .500. MC comes out at .500 (1-1-4!) and UVM and UNH each end up a game under.

That lets us get CT as high as 6th. That's better than if we let one of UVM/MC go and try to work something out over PC - which won't happen.

CT is also out of reach of ME, after the ME loss dropped their Max below CT's banked points.

---
ME can no longer catch NU or CT, snapping the thin tether between ME and UMA and the rest of the league. These two are fighting it out for the bottom pair.

[LTI Alum]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

My head is spinning

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

After Sat Feb 18:
UVM 2 @ BC 2 OT
ME 4 @ MC 4 OT
PC 3 @ ND 3 OT
CT 1 @ NU 4
UML 5 @ UMA 2
BU 8 @ UNH 4

Thu Feb 23:
UML @ BC

Fri Feb 24:
ND @ BU
NU @ ME
PC @ UMA
BC @ UML
CT @ UNH
MC @ UVM

Sat Feb 25:
ND @ BU
NU @ ME
UMA @ PC
UNH @ CT
MC @ UVM

BC	29 - 33	[1-3]
BU	27 - 31	[1-4]

--- Bye Lock – 27 (PC) ---

ND	26 - 30	[1-5]
UML	25 - 29	[1-6]
PC	23 - 27	[3-8]
UVM	22 - 26	[4-8]

--- Home Lock – 22 (UNH tb) ---
--------- Bleen Line --------------
--- Bye Eligible - 25 (UML) ---

MC	20 - 24	[5-9]
NU	19 - 23	[6-9]
UNH	18 - 22	[7-10]
CT	16 - 20	[7-10]

--- R1 Road - 19 (UNH/CT + NU tb) ---

ME	10 - 14	[11]
UMA	5 - 9	[12]

Remaining schedules {HE games left}:
BC - UML, @UML {2}
BU - NDx2 {2}
ND - @BUx2 {2}
UML - @BC, BC {2}
PC - @UMA, UMA {2}
UVM - MCx2 {2}
MC - @UVMx2 {2}
NU - @MEx2 {2}
UNH - CT, @CT {2}
CT - @UNH, UNH {2}
ME - NUx2 {2}
UMA - PC, @PC {2}

Three OT games, all draws. Three blowouts by 3, 3, and 4 goals. The BC/UVM and PC/ND games were both trading goals all night. ME had a 2-0 lead before MC tied and they swapped from there on. NU had a 3-0 lead again before CT finally scored. Aston-Reese had a hattie and a helper, factoring in all four NU goals. Stevens also had three assists. UML led 5-0 with 3:30 to play before UMA netted two to make it look closer. BU actually trailed 3-1 before hanging a snowman on UNH, 8-4. Goals from 7 different scorers, with Harper having the only pair.

---
At 29, BC can now only be tied by UML and passed or tied by either BU or ND. If UML ties, they have the TB by sweeping next week. That allows BC to drop to 3rd (behind a BU/ND winner).

If BU is involved in a tie w/ BC, they also have the H2H sweep and TB. If BC/BU/UML are at 29, BU and UML split, 1-1-0, leaving both at 3-1-0 with BC at 0-4-0. BC gets dropped to 3 and UML takes 1st on wins. ND would be 4th at 28 and out of PC's reach.

If ND and BC tie at 30, they split H2H (1-1-0) and would match wins. ND at 30 means BU was swept to stay at 27, while BC at 30 means UML at 28. So TB3 would be vs UML, where ND split 1-1-0, but BC would have just gone 0-1-1, so - tied at 30 - ND tops the table.

At BC/ND 29, we would have to include UML (BU would be 28 and 4th). BC would be 1-3-0, ND 2-2-0, and UML 3-1-0. UML gets 1st, but here ND adds the tie, not BC, so BC gets 2nd over ND on wins.

BC's recent skid had dropped them on the underside of the PWR bubble, so they will need a run - and maybe even the auto-bid - to make the NCAAs. In this case, getting a Bye and missing out on another set of games could hurt the Eagles, especially if they get dinged by UML.

---
BU reaching 27 puts them out of reach of UVM or lower, and the best PC can do is tie. BU beat PC 1-0-1, so takes the H2H. BU at 27 means BC and ND are above, but UML could be above, below or even. In the BU/UML/PC 3WT, BU and PC are 2-1-1, and UML is 1-3-0. That drops UML to 5th, and BU takes PC H2H. BU can't be passed by PC, so can't fall to 5th, and BU clinches a Bye.

By gaining a point on BC tonight, BU is only two points behind the Eagles for 1st and only needs a tie, leaving many scenarios for the Terriers to pull the top seed.

Last Friday, before the Beanpot, BU and Harvard were tied in RPI at .5744. BU's RPI has been steadily falling (.5614 earlier, .5634 post-win), as they have dropped through 3, 4, 5, and now to 6 in the PWR, while Harvard's has steadily climbed (now .5838) and replaced BU at 3 in PWR. BU is in a small RPI bubble of their own, now 94 points behind WMU and 67 points ahead of Union, so cushions on both sides. By comparison, that same 94 points separating BU's 6 from WMU's 5 would move #20 Wisconsin (.5379) past #13 Ohio State (.5471), or OSU between #8 UML (.5561) and #7 Union (.5567).

---
ND couldn't quite put a fork in PC's chances to catch them. With a 3-point lead, ND could be swept by BU and still trail a PC sweep of UMA. A ND/PC H2H tie would go to ND, after this weekend's 1-0-1 result. UML could also pass ND, meaning the Irish could be 5th.

ND also went 1-0-1 vs UVM, so a H2H tie at 26 goes to ND. Adding in PC doesn't hurt ND, as the Irish's 2-0-2 beats UVM and PC at 1-2-1 (UVM/PC split 1-1-0). ND split with UML 1-1-0, so 3-1-2 still tops the ND/UVM/PC/UML pile (UVM 1-4-1, PC 3-2-1, UML 3-3-0). If we removed PC and left ND/UVM/UML, we get 2-1-1, 0-3-1, 3-1-0. UML would move up, but ND wouldn't be behind UVM. BC and BU are beyond 26, so there's no one else to add into a RR. We can't get ND to 6th.

Over the same span discussed above, the Irish have moved up in PWR from 20 to 18 and now 15t (16 after tb). Remarkably, where HE had five teams looking good for the tourney what seems like only a few weeks ago, they are now looking at just three (BU 6/UML 8/PC 9) looking strong to make it, with four more around the bubble (ND 16/UVM 17/BC 18/NU 21), but on the wrong side.

---
We have seen that UML can still take 1st out of a BC/BU/UML tie at 29. They could also be passed by both PC and UVM and drop to 6th.

PC and UML have steadily been 8/9 in PWR for this same period, but tonight, the 8 flips to UML with PC now 9th.

---
PC's 23 in the bank is now past the Max of four teams, meaning they have finally clinched a Home series.

They could be tied by NU. With UVM/MC playing next week, either one could pass PC, or they could 1/3 split and both hit 23. In the 4WT, here's the grid:

RRRs	PC	MC	UVM	NU	Total
PC:		0-1-1	1-1-0	1-1-0	2-3-1
MC:	1-0-1		1-0-1	0-2-0	2-2-2
UVM:	1-1-0	0-1-1		2-0-0	3-2-1
NU:	1-1-0	2-0-0	0-2-0		3-3-0

UVM gets promoted.

RRRs	PC	MC	NU	Total
PC:		0-1-1	1-1-0	1-2-1
MC:	1-0-1		0-2-0	1-2-1
NU:	1-1-0	2-0-0		3-1-0

NU promoted. Then MC takes PC with the 1-0-1 result H2H. PC comes out of the bottom of that stack, so their floor is 8th.

On the upper end, PC must trail BC and the BU/ND winner, so their ceiling is 3rd.

---
UVM's 26 Max lets them tie ND and pass everyone else but BC/BU, so they could be 4th and get a Bye. H2H with ND, they lose 0-1-1. We could add either UML, PC, or both to try to nudge UVM up to 3rd. UVM was swept by UML, so that doesn't help. UVM split w/ PC, but PC's 1-of-4 weekend isn't going to help UVM get past ND either. That leaves UVM with a ceiling of 4th.

On the lower end, UVM is clear of UMA, ME, and CT, and could be tied by UNH - adding NU if needed. For UVM to stay at 22, MC has to sweep and pass them.

In the UVM/UNH TB, they split 1-1-0, and would match wins for TB2. Is there anyone among the top teams that UNH fared better against than UVM? Both were swept by UML. Both were 0-1-1 vs ND. UVM split with BU, but UNH just went 0-1-1. UVM just tied BC twice, where UNH was swept. Of the four teams that could top the table, UVM wins with BC or BU and ND or UML moves to the next team. PC could be as high as 3rd, but one of the teams ahead of them would be BC, which gives the edge to UVM. All of that means a UVM/UNH match goes to UVM on TB3, whoever is 1st or 2nd.

Adding NU to the tie at 22 does give UNH a 1-0-1 boost, but UVM gets a sweep and stays ahead of UNH.

We can't get UNH past UVM. That makes four below the Cats, so UVM is the sixth team to lock up a Home series.

(cont'd in next post)

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

(cont'd from last post)

---
In a burst, three teams (MC/NU/UNH) that could earn a Bye when the night started have seen that chance evaporate.

MC could cleanly hit 5th, alone at 24. In fact, if they hit 24, their sweep of UVM would keep the Cats at 22, and 24 is out of reach of NU and lower. So MC would be either 5 or 6, depending on what PC does. MC took 3-of-4 from PC, so would have the H2H tb.

MC's 20-pt Min could be tied by CT and caught or passed by UNH and NU. However, MC can't both be tied by CT and passed by UNH, since those two meet next week. MC and CT split 0-0-2, but CT would take TB2 on wins, so MC would lose that TB. MC lost to UNH 0-1-1 H2H. MC was swept by NU. With none of the TBs going their way, MC could be behind NU and either CT or UNH, dropping as far as 9th.

---
NU can't catch the top four and could only tie PC. We also know that either the UVM/MC winner passes 23 - making a fifth team that NU can't catch, plus the PC tie - or they both hit it. In that 4WT worked out above, NU comes out 2nd, so gets 6th seed, which is the best they can do.

Below them, UNH and CT still have a pair. The UNH/CT winner can pass NU, or they can 1/3 split for a 3WT at 19 with no helpers to add. NU swept CT, but lost 0-1-1 to UNH for a 2-1-1. CT would be 1-0-1 to UNH, but 1-2-1 with the NU sweep. UNH would be .500 with 3-of-4 from NU, but 1-of-4 from CT (1-1-2). NU tops that RRR. The lowest NU can fall then is ahead of only UMA, ME and the UNH/CT loser with the winner passing them by.

---
UNH could reach up to tie UVM, but if they do, MC would have passed 22. We saw above that UNH can't get past UVM, so we might as well let UVM go and keep MC lower. UNH could then re-pass MC and NU to reclaim 7th. They could also lose 3 or 4 points to CT and end up 10th.

---
CT's Max of 20 only gets them as high as tying MC, but we've seen that they win that tie. Hitting their Max means they swept and passed UNH and they could also be ahead of NU, showing that CT's ceiling is also 7th. They are currently 10th and could stay there as well.

---
ME is now isolated in 11th and UMA is slotted for 12th.

[UML Puck Hawk]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

Ok, I think I ran all the scenario's correctly under the assumption PC sweeps Amherst


Lowell Beats BC
~BU takes 4 points, 1. BU, 2. Lowell, 3. BC, 4. PC 5. ND
~BU takes 3 points, 1. BU, 2. Lowell, 3. BC, 4. Notre Dame (wins the possible TB with PC) 5. PC
~BU takes 2 points, 1. Lowell, 2. BU, 3. BC. 4. Notre Dame 5. PC
~BU takes 1 point, 1. Lowell, 2. BC, 3. Notre Dame 4. BU 5. PC
~BU takes 0 points, 1. Notre Dame, 2. Lowell, 3. BC, 4. BU 5. PC

Lowell Ties BC
~BU takes 4 points, the standings end up 1. BU, 2. BC, 3. Lowell 4. PC 5. Notre Dame
~BU takes 3 Points, 1. BU, 2. BC 3. Lowell 4. Notre Dame 5. PC
~BU takes 2 points, 1. BC, 2. BU 3. Lowell 4. Notre Dame 5. PC
~BU takes 1 point, 1. BC 2. Notre Dame 3. Lowell 4. BU5. PC
~BU takes 0 points, 1. Notre Dame 2. BC 3. Lowell 4. BU 5. PC

BC Beats Lowell
~ BU takes 4 points, 1. BU, 2. BC, 3. PC 4. Lowell 5. Notre Dame
~ BU takes 3 points 1. BU, 2. BC, 3. PC 4. Lowell 5. Notre Dame
~ BU takes 2 points 1. BU, 2. BC, 3. Notre Dame 4. Providence 5. Lowell
~ BU takes 1 point 1. BC, 2. Notre Dame 3. BU 4. PC 5. Lowell
~ BU takes 0 points 1. BC, 2. Notre Dame, 3. BU, 4. PC, 5. Lowell