Results 1 to 8 of 8

Thread: NCAA Goalie Starts, Quality Starts and Really Bad Starts

  1. #1
    2009 NCAA Champions Sean Pickett's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2000
    Posts
    1,992

    NCAA Goalie Starts, Quality Starts and Really Bad Starts

    A month ago I posted in the BU thread that I was looking into quality starts vs really bad starts for BU goalies. To do that I needed all goalie stats for each NCAA season to determine the mean save percentage for each season. collegehockeystats.com had that information from the 2003-04 season forward, allowing me to find the actual mean save percentage for those seasons. For 1999-00 through 2002-03 I was able to come up with solid numbers, although they are missing some (2001-02 & 2003) or all (1999-2000 & 2000-01) CCHA goalie data. From 1973-74 through 1984-85 I used tops goalie (by GAA) stats, so well solid, the actual mean save percentage is certainly lower than the number I have used.

    However, I was unable to come up with many goalie stats for 1985-86 & 1986-87 and 1988-89 through 1998-99, so I posted a request for help. As no one sent me any stats, I ended up extrapolating goals and saves for 1992-93, 1993-94 & 1994-95 and for the other seasons I used what limited sources I have or was able to find to create rough mean save percentages. After comparing them to other metrics I am confident that they are relatively accurate numbers for each season, but I would still appreciate goal and save information for CCHA goalies before 2002 and for almost all goalies before 1999.

    Looking at the actual and estimated mean save percentages since the 1973-74 season shows the overall rise from around 89% for the top goalies to a high of just under 91.4% for all goalies in the 2014-15 season. However, last season it dipped slightly and so far this season it is down again, to just under 90.5%. That is down almost 0.9% from 2014-15 and is the lowest itís been since 2006-07.

    After compiling BU goalie stats from 1973-74 (partial through 1983-84) forward I got sidetracked by the idea of quality starts so I also compiled game-by-game goalie stats for every game this season. I then looked at every goalie's number of starts, quality starts, really bad starts, and W-L-T for quality starts for the season through 12/18/2016.

    In looking at all goalies by class freshmen are leading the way this season in starts and quality start percentage, with juniors just behind in both categories. Sophomores are third in starts, but last in quality start percentage, while seniors are last in starts, but ahead of sophomores in quality start percentage. In really bad starts juniors lead with just 12.8%, freshmen trail with 18.3%, sophomores have 22.0% and seniors 22.4%.

    Freshmen also have the best mean save percentage and best starting goalie save percentage, both at 0.912. Juniors are again just behind them at 0.910 overall and 0.911 for starting goalies. Seniors are at 0.901 for both, while Sophomores come in last at 0.894 for both.

    However, for the most part, freshmen have not been handed the starting job. Nine goalies have started every game, none a freshman. In fact the top 18 goalies in starting percentage include no freshman (4 seniors, 11 juniors, 3 sophomores), with BUís Jack Oettinger and Miamiís Ryan Larkin both tied at 19th with 2 other goalies. However, 5 of the next 6 goalies in starting percentage are freshmen (all above 80%) and another 7 freshman goalies have started between 60% and 80% of their teamís games.

    I have uploaded a NCAA Goalies spreadsheet if anyone is interested in looking at it. The first sheet has a list of definitions and abbreviations used on the other sheets. The second sheet has every game appearance for every goalie (or almost every appearance Ė I may have missed a few relief appearances). The third sheet has every goalie's number of starts, starting percentage, quality starts, really bad starts and quality starts winning percentage. The fourth sheet has the mean save percentage for every season starting with 1973-74 and what each is based on. The fifth sheet shows game save percentage vs winning percentage for every decision earned by a starting goalie.

    Sean
    Women's Hockey East Champions 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2010
    Men's NCAA Champions 2009, 1995, 1978, 1972, 1971

    Watch BU Hockey highlights

  2. #2
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Location
    south sioux city, ne
    Posts
    858

    Re: NCAA Goalie Starts, Quality Starts and Really Bad Starts

    Nice work! Thanks!

  3. #3
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Posts
    77

    Re: NCAA Goalie Starts, Quality Starts and Really Bad Starts

    Very interesting stuff! I wanted to come up with a new goalie stat in which i term GAF or Goalie At Fault. This stat would take into consideration goals that no matter what the goalie could have done it would have been a goal anyways (such as a deflection that went opposite direction into top corner etc). Basically, it would strip out goals that goalies had no chance on to give a better idea of GAA and save percentage. Of course it would be subjective just as a hit or error are in baseball but it would give some clearer stats for goalies in my opinion as they aren't punished for goals they had no chance on.

  4. #4
    2009 NCAA Champions Sean Pickett's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2000
    Posts
    1,992

    Re: NCAA Goalie Starts, Quality Starts and Really Bad Starts

    Quote Originally Posted by Lemonade View Post
    Very interesting stuff! I wanted to come up with a new goalie stat in which i term GAF or Goalie At Fault. This stat would take into consideration goals that no matter what the goalie could have done it would have been a goal anyways (such as a deflection that went opposite direction into top corner etc). Basically, it would strip out goals that goalies had no chance on to give a better idea of GAA and save percentage. Of course it would be subjective just as a hit or error are in baseball but it would give some clearer stats for goalies in my opinion as they aren't punished for goals they had no chance on.
    Of course to create that stat you need to get the hockey stats people on board as categorizing whether or not a goalie was at fault for a goal is something that most likely would need to be determined at the time of the goal.

    Sean
    Women's Hockey East Champions 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2010
    Men's NCAA Champions 2009, 1995, 1978, 1972, 1971

    Watch BU Hockey highlights

  5. #5
    2009 NCAA Champions Sean Pickett's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2000
    Posts
    1,992

    Re: NCAA Goalie Starts, Quality Starts and Really Bad Starts

    Quote Originally Posted by Lemonade View Post
    Very interesting stuff! I wanted to come up with a new goalie stat in which i term GAF or Goalie At Fault. This stat would take into consideration goals that no matter what the goalie could have done it would have been a goal anyways (such as a deflection that went opposite direction into top corner etc). Basically, it would strip out goals that goalies had no chance on to give a better idea of GAA and save percentage. Of course it would be subjective just as a hit or error are in baseball but it would give some clearer stats for goalies in my opinion as they aren't punished for goals they had no chance on.
    I also don't think it would actually change a goalie's stats noticeably over a full season. I suppose you could try to quantify your GAF stats vs overall stats if you have access to archived videos of every game a goalie played over a full season and you watched every goal to determine what category to place each one in.

    Sean
    Women's Hockey East Champions 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2010
    Men's NCAA Champions 2009, 1995, 1978, 1972, 1971

    Watch BU Hockey highlights

  6. #6

    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Location
    20904/13677/07677/07621
    Posts
    28,568

    Re: NCAA Goalie Starts, Quality Starts and Really Bad Starts

    I have to look, but a guess would be that Kevin McCabe (Brown) got the shaft in the 1976 AA vote.

  7. #7
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Posts
    89

    Re: NCAA Goalie Starts, Quality Starts and Really Bad Starts

    Really interesting info.

    Just shows how much a solid goalie has to do with a teams actual success. Redmond for Tech has the highest QS % of goalies that have played a fair amount. Look at the difference in Tech's record before he played and after he took over. He's the single biggest reason they turned their season around. Bitzer the same for BSU, giving them a QS almost every night.

    No accident those two teams are at the top of the WCHA when you look at the goaltending they have gotten.

  8. #8
    2009 NCAA Champions Sean Pickett's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2000
    Posts
    1,992

    Re: NCAA Goalie Starts, Quality Starts and Really Bad Starts

    Quote Originally Posted by bravohankins View Post
    Really interesting info.

    Just shows how much a solid goalie has to do with a teams actual success. Redmond for Tech has the highest QS % of goalies that have played a fair amount. Look at the difference in Tech's record before he played and after he took over. He's the single biggest reason they turned their season around.
    Redmond reminds me of John Curry at BU, except Curry had to wait until the start of his sophomore season to get his chance. Also, Curry was a walk on. What's Redmond's story? Was he expected to get playing time this season?

    Sean
    Women's Hockey East Champions 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2010
    Men's NCAA Champions 2009, 1995, 1978, 1972, 1971

    Watch BU Hockey highlights

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •