Nice work! Thanks!
A month ago I posted in the BU thread that I was looking into quality starts vs really bad starts for BU goalies. To do that I needed all goalie stats for each NCAA season to determine the mean save percentage for each season. collegehockeystats.com had that information from the 2003-04 season forward, allowing me to find the actual mean save percentage for those seasons. For 1999-00 through 2002-03 I was able to come up with solid numbers, although they are missing some (2001-02 & 2003) or all (1999-2000 & 2000-01) CCHA goalie data. From 1973-74 through 1984-85 I used tops goalie (by GAA) stats, so well solid, the actual mean save percentage is certainly lower than the number I have used.
However, I was unable to come up with many goalie stats for 1985-86 & 1986-87 and 1988-89 through 1998-99, so I posted a request for help. As no one sent me any stats, I ended up extrapolating goals and saves for 1992-93, 1993-94 & 1994-95 and for the other seasons I used what limited sources I have or was able to find to create rough mean save percentages. After comparing them to other metrics I am confident that they are relatively accurate numbers for each season, but I would still appreciate goal and save information for CCHA goalies before 2002 and for almost all goalies before 1999.
Looking at the actual and estimated mean save percentages since the 1973-74 season shows the overall rise from around 89% for the top goalies to a high of just under 91.4% for all goalies in the 2014-15 season. However, last season it dipped slightly and so far this season it is down again, to just under 90.5%. That is down almost 0.9% from 2014-15 and is the lowest itís been since 2006-07.
After compiling BU goalie stats from 1973-74 (partial through 1983-84) forward I got sidetracked by the idea of quality starts so I also compiled game-by-game goalie stats for every game this season. I then looked at every goalie's number of starts, quality starts, really bad starts, and W-L-T for quality starts for the season through 12/18/2016.
In looking at all goalies by class freshmen are leading the way this season in starts and quality start percentage, with juniors just behind in both categories. Sophomores are third in starts, but last in quality start percentage, while seniors are last in starts, but ahead of sophomores in quality start percentage. In really bad starts juniors lead with just 12.8%, freshmen trail with 18.3%, sophomores have 22.0% and seniors 22.4%.
Freshmen also have the best mean save percentage and best starting goalie save percentage, both at 0.912. Juniors are again just behind them at 0.910 overall and 0.911 for starting goalies. Seniors are at 0.901 for both, while Sophomores come in last at 0.894 for both.
However, for the most part, freshmen have not been handed the starting job. Nine goalies have started every game, none a freshman. In fact the top 18 goalies in starting percentage include no freshman (4 seniors, 11 juniors, 3 sophomores), with BUís Jack Oettinger and Miamiís Ryan Larkin both tied at 19th with 2 other goalies. However, 5 of the next 6 goalies in starting percentage are freshmen (all above 80%) and another 7 freshman goalies have started between 60% and 80% of their teamís games.
I have uploaded a NCAA Goalies spreadsheet if anyone is interested in looking at it. The first sheet has a list of definitions and abbreviations used on the other sheets. The second sheet has every game appearance for every goalie (or almost every appearance Ė I may have missed a few relief appearances). The third sheet has every goalie's number of starts, starting percentage, quality starts, really bad starts and quality starts winning percentage. The fourth sheet has the mean save percentage for every season starting with 1973-74 and what each is based on. The fifth sheet shows game save percentage vs winning percentage for every decision earned by a starting goalie.
Nice work! Thanks!
Very interesting stuff! I wanted to come up with a new goalie stat in which i term GAF or Goalie At Fault. This stat would take into consideration goals that no matter what the goalie could have done it would have been a goal anyways (such as a deflection that went opposite direction into top corner etc). Basically, it would strip out goals that goalies had no chance on to give a better idea of GAA and save percentage. Of course it would be subjective just as a hit or error are in baseball but it would give some clearer stats for goalies in my opinion as they aren't punished for goals they had no chance on.
I have to look, but a guess would be that Kevin McCabe (Brown) got the shaft in the 1976 AA vote.
Really interesting info.
Just shows how much a solid goalie has to do with a teams actual success. Redmond for Tech has the highest QS % of goalies that have played a fair amount. Look at the difference in Tech's record before he played and after he took over. He's the single biggest reason they turned their season around. Bitzer the same for BSU, giving them a QS almost every night.
No accident those two teams are at the top of the WCHA when you look at the goaltending they have gotten.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)