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115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

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  • Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

    Originally posted by French Rage View Post
    Hail Satan!

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    • Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

      Originally posted by FadeToBlack&Gold View Post
      Hail Satan!
      http://2static.fjcdn.com/pictures/Ha...a1_5705717.jpg
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      • Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

        The ad is a little too cheesy if you ask me. Next time they need to tone down the "oh look how dramatic our music is " BS. I like the guy though and if he gets to debate Ryan it could be fun as heck to watch!
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        • Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

          Originally posted by Handyman View Post
          The ad is a little too cheesy if you ask me. Next time they need to tone down the "oh look how dramatic our music is " BS. I like the guy though and if he gets to debate Ryan it could be fun as heck to watch!
          I hate ham-fisted music cues too (I hate, for example, the atmospheric music of every movie made since 1988), but the pragmatic fact is they work. The majority of our fellow beings have thinking that is between half and wholly immersed in emotional soup, so that type of delivery which you and I find galling and manipulative is a perfect delivery vehicle to reach them.
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          • Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

            Harry Enten has a good 538 piece on GA-6.
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            • Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

              An amazing piece in Vox which if it plays out is extremely positive. This is what it would look like if I wrote the narrative I wanted a solid fiscal conservative to have in their minds right now. These people basically sound like intelligent conservatives who sussed out Trump and now don't want to embolden a Trump-led GOP. We will lose them the second Trump is no longer in the WH but for now they are who we need to cross over to us to fight the knucks.

              I was blown away to find GA-6 is 6th in the country for % of BAs or above voting. It must be a college bedroom community. This is a bellwether for educated conservatives.
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              • Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

                Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                An amazing piece in Vox which if it plays out is extremely positive. This is what it would look like if I wrote the narrative I wanted a solid fiscal conservative to have in their minds right now. These people basically sound like intelligent conservatives who sussed out Trump and now don't want to embolden a Trump-led GOP. We will lose them the second Trump is no longer in the WH but for now they are who we need to cross over to us to fight the knucks.

                I was blown away to find GA-6 is 6th in the country for % of BAs or above voting. It must be a college bedroom community. This is a bellwether for educated conservatives.
                Without having read the Vox article, which have said exactly this...

                I remember hearing that about the GA-6 recently as well. I was surprised. It's being read as a bellwether by Cook* and other politicos for the college-educated voter. The GOP has held that bloc for a while now and it seems to be trending back to the center over the last year or two. And that's a big deal.

                *That's where I heard it! It was Amy Walter from the Cook Political Report on MTP this weekend.

                ETA: Here's the transcript:

                http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-pres...8-2017-n773816


                A few reasons why this election matters though. First, this is a test for the kind of district Democrats must win if they are going to take back the House in 2018. Places where Republicans won the House seat, Tom Price won this district by 23 points, and Donald Trump struggled. In fact, there are 23 districts where a Republican won the House seat, but Hillary Clinton won the presidential vote.

                If Ossoff wins here, it suggests Republicans in those districts have a lot to worry about. Second, education. Republicans are losing educate voters. Of the ten top districts for college-educated voters, Democrats won nine of them in 2016.

                Georgia's Sixth was the only one they lost. So if they can't win swing districts like this, their chances of taking back the House are extraordinarily slim.
                CHUCK TODD:

                We're back now with the panel. Just saw that Georgia Sixth. Amy, you do House races more than anybody at this table. That's how you started your career here. Georgia's Sixth, the importance of it. Why does it matter and what's overhyped?

                AMY WALTER:

                I think you laid it out perfectly. This is the kind of district that Democrats need to win. And there are other suburban, well-educated districts that Democrats are competing in in 2018, already have candidates there. But if they don't win in this special election, it's going to be a big sort of depressing moment for them.
                Last edited by dxmnkd316; 06-20-2017, 02:19 PM.
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                • Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

                  This is the kind of district that Democrats need to win. And there are other suburban, well-educated districts that Democrats are competing in in 2018, already have candidates there. But if they don't win in this special election, it's going to be a big sort of depressing moment for them.
                  Districts like that are the key to picking up Members and state legislators in suburban districts in every red state, but particularly in TX. If the Dem Dream of a purple TX is going to come to fruition it will be because of a coalition of Latino, urban, and educated suburban districts counter-balancing the brute acreage of conservaderp. Maybe by the 2030 Census?
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                  • Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

                    Black turnout has cratered post-Obama and he's not liberal enough for the youngsters. I expect Handel to win by 3
                    "I went over the facts in my head, and admired how much uglier the situation had just become. Over the years I've learned that ignorance is more than just bliss. It's freaking orgasmic ecstasy".- Harry Dresden, Blood Rites


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                    • Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

                      Originally posted by bronconick View Post
                      Black turnout has cratered post-Obama and he's not liberal enough for the youngsters. I expect Handel to win by 3
                      Yep. Me too.
                      **NOTE: The misleading post above was brought to you by Reynold's Wrap and American Steeples, makers of Crosses.

                      Originally Posted by dropthatpuck-Scooby's a lost cause.
                      Originally Posted by First Time, Long Time-Always knew you were nothing but a troll.

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                      • Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

                        Originally posted by bronconick View Post
                        Black turnout has cratered post-Obama and he's not liberal enough for the youngsters. I expect Handel to win by 3
                        Black turnout didn't "crater." It fell back to where it was prior to Obama, which was higher than it had been, IINM, ever before.

                        Black turnout tracks pretty closely with white turnout (unless, apparently, we run a black candidate). The villain of the piece is Latino turnout. White is steady around 65% and post-Obama black looks like it will sit around 60%, but Latino turnout is closer to 45%. That is the big ROI for anyone who wants to invest in it, and right now the GOP has given it gift wrapped to the Dems if we can only take it.
                        Last edited by Kepler; 06-20-2017, 02:49 PM.
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                        • Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

                          Originally posted by ScoobyDoo View Post
                          Yep. Me too.
                          Quelle surprise.
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                          • Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

                            Originally posted by Handyman View Post
                            The ad is a little too cheesy if you ask me. Next time they need to tone down the "oh look how dramatic our music is " BS. I like the guy though and if he gets to debate Ryan it could be fun as heck to watch!
                            Debates don't matter. The majority of Republicans are single-issue voters - pick one: taxes, guns, or abortion

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                            • Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

                              Originally posted by FadeToBlack&Gold View Post
                              Debates don't matter. The majority of Republicans are single-issue voters - pick one: taxes, guns, or abortion
                              I don't think any GOP voter is single issue on taxes. That is simply the astro-turfing of the Kochs and a thousand other plute think tanks.

                              But abortion and guns, absolutely. Whiteness is up there, too.
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                              • Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

                                Looks like somebody didn't watch Better Know a District.
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