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115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

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  • Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

    Originally posted by bronconick View Post
    Prediction: Democrat voters will think "Well, he has nearly a 30 point lead, I can sit this one out".
    My guess is the robocalls wont allow for that. Only the Clintonistas sit on leads
    "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
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    "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
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    • Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

      Originally posted by Handyman View Post
      No offense but this is completely wrong. First of all isnt it something like a 20 point swing from when Price won? That is an epic fail for the RNC not the DNC...especially since that district has been solid red for decades.

      Second, there is no guarantee that Handel will beat Ossoff in the runoff. Just because the GOP voters outvoted the Dems overall (barely) doesnt mean they are all going to vote or that they are all going to vote for her. Plenty didnt like her and wont be super motivated to vote for her.

      Third, it is going to be super close no matter who wins. That shows that Trump support is waning at the moment. A 30 year old nobody just put the fear of god into Trump and his party (so much so he was robocalling and tweeting about it on election day) in a district he had zero business winning. If they can do it there, they can do it elsewhere as well.
      This.

      Scooby, either you don't understand this or you do and are b_tching for the sake of b_itching.
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      • Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

        Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
        This.

        Scooby, either you don't understand this or you do and are b_tching for the sake of b_itching.
        Trump only won by one point in that district. Democrats believed that they could win Georgia. These are just facts. I hope Handy is correct and Ossoff does win, but I seriously doubt it. Perez was on Morning Joe this morning and it was more of the clueless DNC rhetoric that never ends.

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        Dems failed in Kansas and are now failing in Georgia. Great job Karen Handel! It is now Hollywood vs. Georgia on June 20th.
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        • Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

          Originally posted by bronconick View Post
          Prediction: Democrat voters will think "Well, he has nearly a 30 point lead, I can sit this one out".
          Nah, in this case there was enough discussion of the desire to avoid the runoff that Democratic voters know they need to repeat.

          It's going to be an interesting runoff. The combined strength of all 11 Republican candidates was 52%. That means all those voters have to repeat, despite voting for a nominee that 64% of the GOP voters in the first round did not choose. Can that be done? Sure. Will that happen -- running the table in the general behind a guy not very popular in his own caucus? I don't see it as a slam-dunk, that's for sure.
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          • Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

            Originally posted by ScoobyDoo View Post
            No chance. Realize that the total of all the Democratic vote was under 50. He also didn't do any better than Hillary in totality. It's typical DNC.
            Nate Silver says it's a toss up, he is currently favoring Handel by less than one point in the run off. He does have a chance...

            Consider Obama lost this congressional district by 23 points in 2012. 538 would put the Republican advantage somewhere between Trump's (1.5 points) and Romney's (23 points) using a weighted average to estimate that a Republican should win Georgia 6 by around 10 points if the presidential candidates were polling about 50/50 nationally. This is looking pretty good for Democrats -- Republicans have to defend almost 50 house seats that are bluer than Georgia 6, which is now a tossup. The Ds need to win 24 of those. Who knows how things will look in 2018 though.

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            • Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

              Originally posted by Handyman View Post
              Ossoff is running away with the special election but his projections put him around 48% when all is said and done meaning there will be a runoff. Handel is in second place with 18%

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              This election is nothing more than economic development for Georgia. I saw on the news last night that something like $8 million flowed into Georgia from California, in support of Ossoff, before last night's vote. Those numbers should insure the cash keeps flowing east for a little while longer.
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              • Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

                I consider moral victories to be whipped cream on $%%t, but having said that the fact that the Dem is sitting at 48 is a pretty good sign. Outran the polling by about 8 points and also outran Hillary by 1%. The kicker here is 1) if Dems stay engaged, as in all his people show up again for the final round, and 2) if Handel can consolidate all GOP support from the 50 other candidates that essentially ran against her. I find #2 to be more unlikely than #1. If the Dems got around 40% he'd be in trouble. Given the vote totals we've seen, they'd better win this race in June or its going to be same sh !t different year.
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                • Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

                  Originally posted by BassAle View Post
                  Consider Obama lost this congressional district by 23 points in 2012. 538 would put the Republican advantage somewhere between Trump's (1.5 points) and Romney's (23 points) using a weighted average to estimate that a Republican should win Georgia 6 by around 10 points if the presidential candidates were polling about 50/50 nationally. This is looking pretty good for Democrats -- Republicans have to defend almost 50 house seats that are bluer than Georgia 6, which is now a tossup. The Ds need to win 24 of those.
                  This is an excellent way to put it. The other thing is the elections are not truly independent trials. It's more like water level.

                  Incumbency is a mixed blessing. If the country is in better shape (or feels like it's in better shape anyway) in another 18 months the GOP should do fine, and should deserve it. If the country goes to hell, they'll get clobbered as well they should.

                  Democracy fails around the edges but the general idea is sound.
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                  • Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

                    Originally posted by ScoobyDoo View Post
                    Trump only won by one point in that district. Democrats believed that they could win Georgia. These are just facts. I hope Handy is correct and Ossoff does win, but I seriously doubt it. Perez was on Morning Joe this morning and it was more of the clueless DNC rhetoric that never ends.
                    You realize they havent lost in Georgia yet right?
                    "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
                    -aparch

                    "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
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                    Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
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                    • Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

                      Originally posted by Handyman View Post
                      You realize they havent lost in Georgia yet right?
                      I think he means Dems believed they could win GA in 2016.

                      GA did look pretty close until Comey, Assange, and Putin put their fingers on the scale.
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                      • Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

                        Originally posted by Rover View Post
                        I consider moral victories to be whipped cream on $%%t, but having said that the fact that the Dem is sitting at 48 is a pretty good sign. Outran the polling by about 8 points and also outran Hillary by 1%. The kicker here is 1) if Dems stay engaged, as in all his people show up again for the final round, and 2) if Handel can consolidate all GOP support from the 50 other candidates that essentially ran against her. I find #2 to be more unlikely than #1. If the Dems got around 40% he'd be in trouble. Given the vote totals we've seen, they'd better win this race in June or its going to be same sh !t different year.
                        That is all obviously true. It should be noted though that unless there was a massive upswell of voters overall (or I guess downswell works too though it would need to be significant) it is quite likely that some that voted for Price voted for Ossoff. Some GOP voters did not vote for any of those candidates and went with the youth vote.

                        But yeah the Dems need to stay engaged. They need to find every little thing they can on Handle and destroy her. Hell I am guessing there was a little mudslinging between Handel and the rest of the GOP wannabes so use it. Tie her Trump at every turn...he is on thin ice there anyways.
                        "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
                        -aparch

                        "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
                        -INCH

                        Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
                        -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007

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                        • Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

                          Originally posted by Kepler View Post
                          I think he means Dems believed they could win GA in 2016.

                          GA did look pretty close until Comey, Assange, and Putin put their fingers on the scale.
                          Oh then yeah he is right. I dont think any of that is the reason Georgia didnt flip though...I think the polls were just skewed by the fact that people didnt want to admit they supported Trump. I dont think Georgia was ever as close as it looked.
                          "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
                          -aparch

                          "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
                          -INCH

                          Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
                          -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007

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                          • Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

                            48 / 2 = 2 Dems in the runoff. Seems like a missed opportunity to me.

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                            • Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

                              There is no guarantee that if another popular Dem ran they would split the vote or that they would have done so to the point they both finish in the top 2. People voted for Ossoff as much as they did for party.
                              "It's as if the Drumpf Administration is made up of the worst and unfunny parts of the Cleveland Browns, Washington Generals, and the alien Mon-Stars from Space Jam."
                              -aparch

                              "Scenes in "Empire Strikes Back" that take place on the tundra planet Hoth were shot on the present-day site of Ralph Engelstad Arena."
                              -INCH

                              Of course I'm a fan of the Vikings. A sick and demented Masochist of a fan, but a fan none the less.
                              -ScoobyDoo 12/17/2007

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                              • Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

                                Originally posted by Handyman View Post
                                There is no guarantee that if another popular Dem ran they would split the vote or that they would have done so to the point they both finish in the top 2. People voted for Ossoff as much as they did for party.
                                It would have taken an organized effort, for sure.

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