USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

[Eeyore]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

If things hold, Minnesota will play against only three teams with winning records in the 34 game regular season. Maybe down to two teams if North Dakota drops to .500 after this week-end.

Those three teams represent 12 games. That's about the same number as the number of games against teams over .500 that anyone else will likely play. Since they have a larger conference schedule in a smaller league than the ECAC and Hockey East, WCHA teams simply play fewer teams overall. So, it's not at all surprising that they play fewer different teams that have a winning record.

[EastFan1]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

Those three teams represent 12 games. That's about the same number as the number of games against teams over .500 that anyone else will likely play. Since they have a larger conference schedule in a smaller league than the ECAC and Hockey East, WCHA teams simply play fewer teams overall. So, it's not at all surprising that they play fewer different teams that have a winning record.

I'm not a math major, but I would expect close to 50% of the games to be against teams with a winning record and close to 50% of the games against teams with a losing record (removing the few teams that are exactly .500). Playing 20 to 26 games out of 34 against teams with a losing record would be favorable.

[EastFan1]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

I might take in your point if the WCHA wasn't 15-1-2 against NC opponents. All your stat does is show how tough it is on a team's record to be in a conference with 2-3 pretty unstoppable teams.

Most of the teams making up that record have 3 to 4 wins or less, like Lindenwood (0 wins this season) and RIT (1 win). Teams like Mercyhurst (3 wins) and Merrimack (4 wins) took points from mid-tier WCHA teams.

Only one series sweep against a team with a winning record (Clarkson).

[D2D]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

For example, a field where Wisconsin is 1, Minnesota appears to be 5, just a bit behind BC in 4. Robert Morris wins the CHA, but the Colonials would have gotten in anyway at 6. UND takes the WCHA from outside the top 8. The bracket comes out, and surprise! It turns out the committee has different math that has the Gophers in 4, just ahead of BC. The Gophers still host North Dakota, even though it looked like both would be road teams. RMU goes to Madison. Instead of hosting Minnesota, BC goes on the road to play Clarkson at No. 3.

ARM, this kind of creativity just might land you a high-paying job with the NCAA, assuming you're interested and wouldn't mind using it to support doing the wrong thing.

[bc6696]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

ARM, this kind of creativity just might land you a high-paying job with the NCAA, assuming you're interested and wouldn't mind using it to support doing the wrong thing.

Only if ARM is within a bus ride to the office

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

Most of the teams making up that record have 3 to 4 wins or less, like Lindenwood (0 wins this season) and RIT (1 win). Teams like Mercyhurst (3 wins) and Merrimack (4 wins) took points from mid-tier WCHA teams.

Only one series sweep against a team with a winning record (Clarkson).

I absolutely must meet this person.

[FiveHoleFrenzy]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

The WCHA is the elephant in the room (at least for Eastern folks). You can talk all you want about stats and whine about so called schedule avoidance. At the end of the day, the WCHA has almost all the national championships and that's the bottom line.

[Eeyore]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

I'm not a math major, but I would expect close to 50% of the games to be against teams with a winning record and close to 50% of the games against teams with a losing record (removing the few teams that are exactly .500). Playing 20 to 26 games out of 34 against teams with a losing record would be favorable.

Your expectation is not correct. For one thing, if we are only looking at the top teams, we would expect them to play fewer than half of their conference games against teams with winning records, because they don't play themselves. For Minnesota, that means that, even under your assumptions, they would play 7 different teams in conference play, of whom we would expect 4 to have losing records. So, about 42% of their games would be against teams with winning records, which works out to . . . 12, exactly as Minnesota is playing.

But there's another layer to that, that also applies to non-conference games. We would expect Minnesota's opponents to have a losing record in aggregate, because they lost games to Minnesota. The act of winning means that your opponents' winning percentage goes down. If you want to calculate a team's strength of schedule, you have to remove the games it played from its opponents' records.

If you combine these two things, it explains why almost all of the top teams' scheduled opponents have a current record under .500. St. Lawrence has 14 of 32 regular season games against teams that have a winning record at the moment. (Note: your initial calculation was wrong, because Minnesota, like St. Lawrence, has only 32 regular season games this year.) Colgate has 11 of 34. Quinnipiac has 15 of 34. Cornell has 13 of 29. Boston College has 10 or 11 of 33, depending upon who they play in the second week of the Beanpot. Northeastern has 8 or 9 out of 34. Clarkson is the only team I found that makes it to half of their games against teams with winning records, at 17 of 34. Given the first problem I mentioned, it shouldn't be a surprise that ECAC teams are consistently the closest to playing half of their games against teams with winning records, since they have 11 remaining conference opponents after removing themselves, rather than 8 (Hockey East) or 7 (WCHA).

In other words, math is harder than you thought.

[5mn_Major]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

Most of the teams making up that record have 3 to 4 wins or less, like Lindenwood (0 wins this season) and RIT (1 win). Teams like Mercyhurst (3 wins) and Merrimack (4 wins) took points from mid-tier WCHA teams.

Only one series sweep against a team with a winning record (Clarkson).

Again, that's already taken into account. The WCHA has 6 of the top 8 SOS' in the country (as it does every year). So who else snuck in to that level of competition? Harvard 1-5. Dartmouth 1-5.

You can try to downplay the league...but by definition, everyone else is playing at a level lower.

[Eeyore]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

Only one series sweep against a team with a winning record (Clarkson).

Which is as many as the ECAC and Hockey East have combined. There is a very strong bias against teams with winning records getting swept, because they tend not to be winning teams if that happens.

[EastFan1]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

Which is as many as the ECAC and Hockey East have combined. There is a very strong bias against teams with winning records getting swept, because they tend not to be winning teams if that happens.

Out east we play lots of 1 game series, which has been known to prevent a 2 game sweep.

Most teams in the WCHA (Bemidji, Minnesota, Minnesota State, North Dakota, Ohio State) are not scheduled to play a non-conference game against a team with a current winning record.

Every Hockey East team has played or will play a non-conference opponent with a winning record, so will 10 of the 12 ECAC teams.

[Eeyore]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

Out east we play lots of 1 game series, which has been known to prevent a 2 game sweep.

Most teams in the WCHA (Bemidji, Minnesota, Minnesota State, North Dakota, Ohio State) are not scheduled to play a non-conference game against a team with a current winning record.

Every Hockey East team has played or will play a non-conference opponent with a winning record, so will 10 of the 12 ECAC teams.

We're talking non-conference games (otherwise, the WCHA has more than 1 series sweep against a winning team), and the eastern schools play almost entirely 2 game series out of conference. Indeed, I can find exactly 1 exception among the teams that really count: Quinnipiac's weekend against Connecticut and New Hampshire. So, you're now at the point of throwing up irrelevant chaff in an attempt to confuse the issue.

Do you want to make a point that isn't contradicted by the facts?

[ne7minder]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

I might take in your point if the WCHA wasn't 15-1-2 against NC opponents. All your stat does is show how tough it is on a team's record to be in a conference with 2-3 pretty unstoppable teams.

15-1-2? I think 16-1 says a lot more about the relative strength over time. Particularly since the 1 was an Olympic year.

[EastFan1]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

the eastern schools play almost entirely 2 game series out of conference.

Do you want to make a point that isn't contradicted by the facts?

Your kidding right? The teams near Boston play non-conference one-offs like Brown against UConn or Dartmouth against Northeastern or Quinny v. UNH. Then there's the 12 teams in multiple games in the Beanpot, Nutmeg and Windjammer Classic. Then stuff like the Mayor's cup. So facts, yeah.

[Eeyore]

Re: USCHO Poster's Poll: '16-'17

Your kidding right? The teams near Boston play non-conference one-offs like Brown against UConn or Dartmouth against Northeastern or Quinny v. UNH. Then there's the 12 teams in multiple games in the Beanpot, Nutmeg and Windjammer Classic. Then stuff like the Mayor's cup. So facts, yeah.

None of those are relevant. You were not talking about games that haven't been played yet; your comment was that the WCHA has only swept one series against a non-conference opponent. The past tense was a crucial part of your point. Listing games that have not been played yet has absolutely nothing to do with your point. So, how many single game non-conference match ups have there been that were already played (future games are irrelevant) in which a team with a winning record lost. (If a team with a winning record beat a team with a losing record, that could not have resulted in a sweep of a team with a winning record had there been another game.)

Hell, I'll do your work for you: there has been exactly one such game: Quinnipiac over Connecticut on 10/7. That's it. You're hanging your argument on that one game.

Go home, you're embarrassing yourself.