Big Ten Hockey 2016-2017

[Koho]

Re: Big Ten Hockey 2016-2017

Meaningless? I would definitely rather be the No. 1 than halfway down the PWR, say at No. 30.

Just curious: has there ever been a No. 1 at the break that didn't make the NCAA tournament?

Minnesota Vikings. Oh wait, wrong sport.

[Slap Shot]

Re: Big Ten Hockey 2016-2017

Yeah man. December.
When the weather is crap and the PWR is meaningless.

It's far from meaningless. Yes the PWR will move a lot for most teams between now and March, but to label it meaningless is extremely short-sighted.

[Happy]

Re: Big Ten Hockey 2016-2017

it helps all Big Ten teams SOS. I would be happy if the Big Ten won every OOC game. Maybe, 2 teams could make the NCAA this year.

[D2D]

Re: Big Ten Hockey 2016-2017

Maybe, 2 teams could make the NCAA this year.

I would bet on that happening right now.

[Stauber1]

Re: Big Ten Hockey 2016-2017

It's far from meaningless. Yes the PWR will move a lot for most teams between now and March, but to label it meaningless is extremely short-sighted.

short-sighted? Hey, come up with your own critique, don't just co-opt mine. That's lazy

To answer D2D, I don't know if a team that was at #1 in the PWR in December missed the tournament. But then again, the PWR wasn't even listed anywhere on this site so early in the season until a few years ago. I'll let you guess why...

But - the two off the top of my head that I remembered and checked quickly -
UNO was bopping between 3-5 all of the first half of last season. They were #3 in January. They missed the tournament.
In 2009 The Gophers were #4 in January and missed the tournament.
I'm sure there are others like that.
As for PSU, last year they were #8 at this point. They got to that spot much the way they have this season - a very good record against not very good opponents. They finished at 21.

Hey, PSU should be pleased they have won nearly all of their games so far. That's great, and it is going to help them come March. But they only have 2 wins right now that have a chance to qualify for the QWB, and most of their wins are against teams who won't crack the top-half of the RPI (the majority almost certainly won't even get out of the bottom-third). That means they are in a more volatile position than a number of the teams right below them. So they are sitting in a good spot to make the NCAA tournament (a bit better than last year), but to earn the #1 overall seed they are going to have to be more perfect than those teams right below will have to be.
All of those teams they have beaten aren't going to be doing anything as the season progresses to help raise PSU's RPI.

At any rate, the original post seemed to imply that PSU are the #1 team in the country, and basing that off of "the PWR if the season ended today." That's really flawed. The PWR was designed to rank teams after the conclusion of a 35-40 game season. Not a 12-18 game season.

EDIT: The point I'm making is that looking at the PWR right now is kind of like looking at a weather forecast for late-March right now. Given the info we have, and what we know historically, we can make some general assumptions within a range. But the confidence of those assumptions becomes exponentially less the more specific we try to be. And there are a number of unknowns that have the potential to skew everything.

So, touche. To say it is meaningless, in the strictest sense of the word, is inaccurate. I'll concede that. But it would be folly to put too much stock in the little meaning we can glean.

[D2D]

Re: Big Ten Hockey 2016-2017

EDIT: The point I'm making is that looking at the PWR right now is kind of like looking at a weather forecast for late-March right now. Given the info we have, and what we know historically, we can make some general assumptions within a range. But the confidence of those assumptions becomes exponentially less the more specific we try to be. And there are a number of unknowns that have the potential to skew everything.

So, touche. To say it is meaningless, in the strictest sense of the word, is inaccurate. I'll concede that. But it would be folly to put too much stock in the little meaning we can glean.

More than meaningless and inaccurate, I would bet anyone - even up - that PSU will be one of the 16 teams selected to the NCAA tourney, and there will be at least one other B1G team invited, most likely the Gophers.

[Stauber1]

Re: Big Ten Hockey 2016-2017

More than meaningless and inaccurate, I would bet anyone - even up - that PSU will be one of the 16 teams selected to the NCAA tourney, and there will be at least one other B1G team invited, most likely the Gophers.

ok.
Has anyone questioned that Penn St. have put themselves in good position to make the tournament? If that's the argument you are making, I'm not sure who you are making it with.

This all started from a statement that "PSU is now #1 in the PWR." So forget about betting that they make the tournament. What are you willing to bet that they will be the #1 overall seed? Or that they will be seeded ahead of UMD? Or Denver? Or Harvard? Or Union? Or BU? Or that they will be seeded ahead of all of those schools?
There is no real significance to being #1 in the PWR in December. Certainly no more significance than #2, 3 or 4.

And if you think it is significant, then I have to ask why MN are the next on the list of Big 10 teams to make the tournament, rather than OSU?

I mean, (and I don't intend for this to come off snarky although it likely will) did you even read the rest of that post you quoted from?

[SJHovey]

Re: Big Ten Hockey 2016-2017

short-sighted? Hey, come up with your own critique, don't just co-opt mine. That's lazy

To answer D2D, I don't know if a team that was at #1 in the PWR in December missed the tournament. But then again, the PWR wasn't even listed anywhere on this site so early in the season until a few years ago. I'll let you guess why...

But - the two off the top of my head that I remembered and checked quickly -
UNO was bopping between 3-5 all of the first half of last season. They were #3 in January. They missed the tournament.
In 2009 The Gophers were #4 in January and missed the tournament.
I'm sure there are others like that.
As for PSU, last year they were #8 at this point. They got to that spot much the way they have this season - a very good record against not very good opponents. They finished at 21.

Hey, PSU should be pleased they have won nearly all of their games so far. That's great, and it is going to help them come March. But they only have 2 wins right now that have a chance to qualify for the QWB, and most of their wins are against teams who won't crack the top-half of the RPI (the majority almost certainly won't even get out of the bottom-third). That means they are in a more volatile position than a number of the teams right below them. So they are sitting in a good spot to make the NCAA tournament (a bit better than last year), but to earn the #1 overall seed they are going to have to be more perfect than those teams right below will have to be.
All of those teams they have beaten aren't going to be doing anything as the season progresses to help raise PSU's RPI.

At any rate, the original post seemed to imply that PSU are the #1 team in the country, and basing that off of "the PWR if the season ended today." That's really flawed. The PWR was designed to rank teams after the conclusion of a 35-40 game season. Not a 12-18 game season.

EDIT: The point I'm making is that looking at the PWR right now is kind of like looking at a weather forecast for late-March right now. Given the info we have, and what we know historically, we can make some general assumptions within a range. But the confidence of those assumptions becomes exponentially less the more specific we try to be. And there are a number of unknowns that have the potential to skew everything.

So, touche. To say it is meaningless, in the strictest sense of the word, is inaccurate. I'll concede that. But it would be folly to put too much stock in the little meaning we can glean.

A guy named John Forsyth, also known as the poster "Priceless" (and perhaps a variety of other names) has written about this numerous times. http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/20...rnament-field/

Historically, if you've been in the top 10 or so come January 1, you have a pretty decent chance of making the tournament, especially if you're in the top 4. But as you can see from last year, four of the top 11 teams on January 1 did not earn a bid, including Omaha at #3, while Denver all the way down at #20 on January 1 ended up with a two seed and was maybe the second best team in the country come April.

[D2D]

Re: Big Ten Hockey 2016-2017

There is no real significance to being #1 in the PWR in December.

Yes there is. It puts them in great position to make the NCAA tournament. That's the point I was trying to make.

Saying the PWR doesn't matter in December is simply not true.

[Slap Shot]

Re: Big Ten Hockey 2016-2017

I would say it's fair to call having the #1 PWR in December as incomplete rather than meaningless or insignificant. If you had ask any team if they'd rather be #1 on 1/1/17 than #20....

Guarantees nothing of course but you gotta start somewhere.

[Happy]

Re: Big Ten Hockey 2016-2017

There has always been people who in the past said the poles don't matter, etc. and neither does the pwr until the end. But they do matter, in the sense that what would you rather be on Jan 1st, #1 PWR, or so far down that you can't make the tourney? Also, if you are always ranked high, it sells tickets, recruits, and excitement. Everyone wants to see top teams playing, not so #52 vs #54. It's always fun to win.

[gopher wes]

Re: Big Ten Hockey 2016-2017

There has always been people who in the past said the poles don't matter, etc. and neither does the pwr until the end. But they do matter, in the sense that what would you rather be on Jan 1st, #1 PWR, or so far down that you can't make the tourney? Also, if you are always ranked high, it sells tickets, recruits, and excitement. Everyone wants to see top teams playing, not so #52 vs #54. It's always fun to win.

That's very wise.....

[Speed Kills]

Re: Big Ten Hockey 2016-2017

I think right now we could make a very strong case that the Big Ten is the best conference in college hockey based on the fact that they have the best combined record in non-conference games.

http://www.uscho.com/stats/interconf...men/2016-2017/

I am expecting a minimum of three Big Ten schools represented in the field of 16 on selection Sunday. I see no logical reason why Penn State, Ohio State, and Minnesota won't all get in based on PWR. Should Michigan or Wisconsin happen to get hot at the right time, they could get the auto-bid by winning the conference tournament and give us four teams in the regionals. Based on what we've seen in the first half of the season, I fully expect Big Ten teams to perform better than NCHC teams in March.

[Slap Shot]

Re: Big Ten Hockey 2016-2017

Working against the B1G with respect to the non-conf winning% is neither PSU nor OSU I believe have a highly rated SOS.

[Happy]

Re: Big Ten Hockey 2016-2017

Working against the B1G with respect to the non-conf winning% is neither PSU nor OSU I believe have a highly rated SOS.

Winning has it's own quality.