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An Experiment: A Literal Political Thread

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  • #31
    Re: An Experiment: A Literal Political Thread

    Originally posted by 5mn_Major View Post
    So to test your theory, we should compare it to other high end luxury markets...like autos. The reason why luxury cars makes a good test is that it also received the same 10% luxury tax (on vehicles over $30,000), but unlike yachts which lost the tax as the recession ended...luxury cars kept the 10% tax through the early 2000s. So in theory, luxury yacht sales should take off but luxury car sales should languish regardless of the economy.

    In fact, the luxury car market expanded from recession levels of 1.1 million units in 89 to 1.9 million units in 03 for the US market, increasing from 8% of the total automobile market to 11% (8 to 11 is a very high relative increase). As the book Lexus in the chapter called 'they want to destroy us'...says 'as the market expanded in lock step with the economy in the mid to late 1990s, there seemed to be enough growth in the high end market for everyone'.

    To me, it doesn't appear that the underlying hit to these marketplaces in the early 90s was the tax, but rather the economy. But its one guys opinion.

    https://books.google.lv/books?id=LAS...page&q&f=false
    Four incremental pieces of information that we need to include as part of a controlled scientific experiment.

    1) a tax on yacht value over $30,000 on yachts is not the same as a tax on auto value over $30,000, since most yachts cost far more than luxury autos ("what is the average purchase price of yacht in 1991 vs luxury car?")

    2) It is relatively easy to go to another country to buy a yacht and sail it here. It is not nearly so easy to go overseas to buy a car and then ship it here. ("how much does it cost to ship a car from Europe vs sail a yacht from Europe?")

    3) Most US yacht builders nearly went out of business in the early 1990s; automakers, not so much. (former was cited in NY Times article).

    4) what proportion of US automaker sales were affected by tax compared to what proportion of US yachtmaker sales were affected by the tax (how much did US Automakers also sell overseas vs how much did US yachtmakers sell overseas?)

    It was never presented as "all or none" but as "relative proportion." The tax impacted yachts far more heavily than cars on a relative basis because the amount of the purchase price subject to tax on the yachts was much higher than the amount of the purchase price subject to tax on the cars. (e.g, if average yacht is $100,000 and average luxury car is $50,000, then the former has a tax 3.5 times greater than the latter; not quite apples to apples when parsing out the effect of the tax relative to the effect of the recession).
    Last edited by FreshFish; 08-03-2016, 04:23 PM.
    "Hope is a good thing; maybe the best of things."

    "Beer is a sign that God loves us and wants us to be happy." -- Benjamin Franklin

    "Being Irish, he had an abiding sense of tragedy, which sustained him through temporary periods of joy." -- W. B. Yeats

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    • #32
      Re: An Experiment: A Literal Political Thread

      I think Hillary is MORE than qualified, probably more qualified than a majority of past official candidates of any party. That's not my issue with her.
      Never really developed a taste for tequila. Kind of hard to understand how you make a drink out of something that sharp, inhospitable. Now, bourbon is easy to understand.
      Tastes like a warm summer day. -Raylan Givens

      Comment

      • #33
        Re: An Experiment: A Literal Political Thread

        Originally posted by SJHovey View Post
        I have a question. If it doesn't fit within Kep's intended purpose of this thread, I'll delete it, but I've been curious about this.

        Some posters here at USCHO have stated the opinion that HRC is not only the most qualified female candidate for POTUS that we've ever seen, but maybe one of the most qualified candidate's period. I would like to know why they think that, because personally I disagree. My disagreement is likely one of the reasons why I don't intend to vote for her. If I could be persuaded that in fact she is one of the most qualified candidates ever, I would at least be willing to reevaluate my position. I'll throw out things that I've heard others reference, and my comments on them. But perhaps I've missed some.

        I'll start with her education. She has degrees, including a law degree, from excellent, prestigious institutions. This I concede. However, I don't think that necessarily sets her apart from past or current applicants for the job. First, there are thousands or hundreds of thousands of people in this country with similar educational achievements, including many who have run for POTUS. As we have seen in the past, a degree from Harvard or Yale does not mean you are necessarily going to be a great, or even good, President.

        She served as a corporate lawyer for a "prestigious Little Rock lawfirm." Meh. I've been to Little Rock. It's smaller than Des Moines, iirc. It's not like she ran a prominent NYC, Washington D.C. or Chicago lawfirm where she was called upon to provide legal advice to the government or its agencies. There are a lot of lawyers in places like Des Moines, Madison WI, and Boise ID who would be surprised to learn that their role as a partner in a prominent lawfirm in that community is a key piece to their qualification for POTUS.

        She was First Lady. So was Barbara Bush.

        She served in the Senate. This is true. However, I don't know that she necessarily distinguished herself by her Senate career. Just going off memory, I can't think of a single piece of legislation that I will forever associate with her. Others, like Bobby Kennedy, have parked themselves in the Senate while waiting for a chance for the White House, but at least used that position to try to improve race or economic conditions in the country. I read a tweet by Adam Wodon that indicated that HRC authored something like 10 pieces of legislation while in the Senate. I was curious about it, so I looked it up. Eight of them were to rename federal buildings (usually post offices). There are Senators who have real legislative achievements that we can look back on. I personally believe she spent her time there raising money from foreign governments for her foundation and raising capital in this country for her campaign.

        She served as Sec of State. Again, true. But how does that contribute to her being the most qualified candidate ever? Have we even had a Sec of State who moved on to the WH since the Civil War? It's not like we can say with any confidence that service as Secretary of State is a great piece of experience in making a person a good President. Furthermore, like her career in the Senate, her work as Secretary of State seemed a lot more like a place park her stuff and staff until the POTUS campaign, rather than real diplomatic work. Don't get me wrong. I don't blame government officials, including HRC, for not preventing foreign attacks, whether it's embassy bombings or the WTC. But even if we eliminate all those things that she didn't do, what exactly did she do there?

        Finally, some will say, "you have to add all those components together." But even if you do, and even if the whole is greater than the sum of the parts, the parts really didn't add up to much of anything.

        Maybe my skepticism is based upon my own view of what qualifications I think a person needs to be a good POTUS.

        I think a person needs to be smart. I will give HRC that.

        I think a person needs to be an excellent public speaker, and be able to convey a charisma that will cause people to rally to your position. HRC has none of this.

        I think you need to have diplomatic skills that enable you to start with a piece of legislation that you support, and marshall it through both houses of Congress through a combination of negotiation, compromise, persuasion, etc... She did not demonstrate this skill at all in any of her former positions, least of all the Senate.

        Finally, I think you need an inborn sense of right and wrong. An understanding that the correct decision is not always the decision that is most convenient or politically expedient for you. I have substantial doubts about her judgment in this area, but admittedly it is colored by the fact that I cannot decouple her from Bill Clinton and his cadre.

        So, there you have it.
        The phrase, "wealth of experience" immediately comes to mind. She has experienced all of this. No one has had the breadth of her experience in history.
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        Originally posted by SanTropez
        May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
        Originally posted by bigblue_dl
        I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
        Originally posted by Kepler
        When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
        He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

        Comment

        • #34
          Re: An Experiment: A Literal Political Thread

          Originally posted by unofan View Post
          I will generally be staying out of this thread precisely because some posts deserve no other response but snark. Pretending that all opinions are equally valid and worthy of quality responses is just as bad as the media's current run of giving both sides equal airtime when one side days "The sky is blue" and the other side responds that the "the sky is potato."
          I also mostly agree with this.

          It's the same strategy climate change deniers have used and John Oliver destroyed so handily. Not every opinion deserves a seat at the table.
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          Originally posted by SanTropez
          May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
          Originally posted by bigblue_dl
          I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
          Originally posted by Kepler
          When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
          He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

          Comment

          • #35
            Re: An Experiment: A Literal Political Thread

            Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
            I also mostly agree with this.

            It's the same strategy climate change deniers have used and John Oliver destroyed so handily. Not every opinion deserves a seat at the table.
            I disagree. If someone is shouted down, then they will most likely keep digging in, and keeping their stance. Let them be heard. If one doesn't feel like it's worthy of a response, don't respond. If one disagrees, state WHY one disagrees, in a respectful manner.
            Never really developed a taste for tequila. Kind of hard to understand how you make a drink out of something that sharp, inhospitable. Now, bourbon is easy to understand.
            Tastes like a warm summer day. -Raylan Givens

            Comment

            • #36
              Re: An Experiment: A Literal Political Thread

              This is precisely why we have "debate" about climate change. Because we give children a seat at the adults' table.

              It doesn't lead to progress. It just leads to frustrated scientists and someone who has to clean up all the feces flung by the deniers.
              Code:
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              Originally posted by SanTropez
              May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
              Originally posted by bigblue_dl
              I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
              Originally posted by Kepler
              When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
              He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

              Comment

              • #37
                Re: An Experiment: A Literal Political Thread

                Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
                This is precisely why we have "debate" about climate change. Because we give children a seat at the adults' table.

                It doesn't lead to progress. It just leads to frustrated scientists and someone who has to clean up all the feces flung by the deniers.
                And a lack of communication leads to many a problem, IMO.
                Never really developed a taste for tequila. Kind of hard to understand how you make a drink out of something that sharp, inhospitable. Now, bourbon is easy to understand.
                Tastes like a warm summer day. -Raylan Givens

                Comment

                • #38
                  Re: An Experiment: A Literal Political Thread

                  We don't need communication. We need progress.
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                  Originally posted by SanTropez
                  May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                  Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                  I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                  Originally posted by Kepler
                  When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                  He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                  Comment

                  • #39
                    Re: An Experiment: A Literal Political Thread

                    Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
                    We don't need communication. We need progress.
                    And this is why we don't have progress. Some shut others out and refuse to even entertain the idea of a different opinion.
                    Never really developed a taste for tequila. Kind of hard to understand how you make a drink out of something that sharp, inhospitable. Now, bourbon is easy to understand.
                    Tastes like a warm summer day. -Raylan Givens

                    Comment

                    • #40
                      Re: An Experiment: A Literal Political Thread

                      No, it's not.
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                      Originally posted by SanTropez
                      May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                      Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                      I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                      Originally posted by Kepler
                      When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                      He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                      Comment

                      • #41
                        Re: An Experiment: A Literal Political Thread

                        The obvious answer is to not allow doubleplus ungood opinions to be heard, in order to prevent the wicked thoughts from entering the minds of the feeble. It's for your own good, after all.

                        Now onward to progress. Or something.

                        Comment

                        • #42
                          Re: An Experiment: A Literal Political Thread

                          Originally posted by Armadillo View Post
                          The obvious answer is to not allow doubleplus ungood opinions to be heard, in order to prevent the wicked thoughts from entering the minds of the feeble. It's for your own good, after all.

                          Now onward to progress. Or something.
                          We must not allow people who have different opinions to be heard, apparently. Sorta sounds like a certain candidate. Donald T, to protect his anonymity, feels the same way.
                          Never really developed a taste for tequila. Kind of hard to understand how you make a drink out of something that sharp, inhospitable. Now, bourbon is easy to understand.
                          Tastes like a warm summer day. -Raylan Givens

                          Comment

                          • #43
                            Re: An Experiment: A Literal Political Thread

                            Originally posted by Brenthoven View Post
                            We must not allow people who have different opinions to be heard, apparently. Sorta sounds like a certain candidate. Donald T, to protect his anonymity, feels the same way.
                            Are you talking about D. Trump? Yeah, what a silly little man.
                            Last edited by Armadillo; 08-03-2016, 10:01 PM. Reason: I said a naughty.

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                            • #44
                              Re: An Experiment: A Literal Political Thread

                              I'll listen to logic and science. I don't have much time for opinions that simply ignore established science and fact.
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                              Originally posted by SanTropez
                              May your paint thinner run dry and the fleas of a thousand camels infest your dead deer.
                              Originally posted by bigblue_dl
                              I don't even know how to classify magic vagina smoke babies..
                              Originally posted by Kepler
                              When the giraffes start building radio telescopes they can join too.
                              He's probably going to be a superstar but that man has more baggage than North West

                              Comment

                              • #45
                                Re: An Experiment: A Literal Political Thread

                                Originally posted by dxmnkd316 View Post
                                I'll listen to logic and science. I don't have much time for opinions that simply ignore established science and fact.
                                That's not what you've said, though. Or are you denying that there are robust debates on certain issues within the scientific community?

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