2015-16 New England Patriots

[Rover]

Re: 2015-16 New England Patriots

I'm not too too worried about the rest of the AFC. Not that the Pats couldn't lose, but they shouldn't. QB situation is a disaster for Oakland and Houston. Not worried about KC coming here. Pittsburgh would normally be a good game but their D seems incapable of stopping the Pats over the past 15 years.

My bigger worry is facing a solid QB in the Super Bowl. Pats secondary is terrible. If they have to play Seattle with those tall receivers they're screwed. Likewise I'd rather not see Aaron Rodgers either. I think the Pats could handle Matt Ryan. Fortunately I don't think the Giants get there without Coughlin at the helm.

[walrus]

Looks like Houston next week. For all the talk about Houston d, the weak link was Oakland recievers dropping perfectly thrown balls.

[Rover]

Looks like Houston next week. For all the talk about Houston d, the weak link was Oakland recievers dropping perfectly thrown balls.

Idiotic sportswriters are too overconfident but I don't mind the match-up. Either Oakland or Houston should be a fairly easy win (as Miami would have been playing in Foxborough in January).

I'd expect Steelers-Pats for AFCC but haven't seen a lot of KC lately. Steelers problem (vs Pats anyway) is always their D, particularly the secondary. Not sure if the Chiefs can exploit that.

[SonofSouthie]

Re: 2015-16 New England Patriots

Idiotic sportswriters are too overconfident but I don't mind the match-up. Either Oakland or Houston should be a fairly easy win (as Miami would have been playing in Foxborough in January).

I'd expect Steelers-Pats for AFCC but haven't seen a lot of KC lately. Steelers problem (vs Pats anyway) is always their D, particularly the secondary. Not sure if the Chiefs can exploit that.

Idiotic sportswriters are too overconfident

So's Vegas. Pats are 16.5 point favorites.

[Rover]

So's Vegas. Pats are 16.5 point favorites.

Were I a betting man (and I'm not, I hate to lose money) I might put down a mythical 100 bucks on that. If the Pats are up by 3 scores they're going to take their foot off the gas, thus allowing Houston a late TD or something as long as it takes time off the clock.

[CLS]

Re: 2015-16 New England Patriots

Were I a betting man (and I'm not, I hate to lose money) I might put down a mythical 100 bucks on that. If the Pats are up by 3 scores they're going to take their foot off the gas, thus allowing Houston a late TD or something as long as it takes time off the clock.

I assume you mean you'd put $100 down on Houston to cover.

So's Vegas. Pats are 16.5 point favorites.

Part of this has to do with gambling tendencies. After the 14th game, the Pats were 11-3 vs. the spread. Mookie pointed out that the only other better bet was betting against Cleveland, who were 2-12 vs. the spread. I'm pretty sure the Pats covered the spread in the last two games, and Cleveland won a game, so betting the Pats to cover was the best bet in the NFL this season.

Vegas sets the spread mainly to get an approximately equal amount bet on both teams. So the spread's going to be higher in the Houston game to adjust for people who bet on the Pats to cover regardless of what the spread is.

[SonofSouthie]

Re: 2015-16 New England Patriots

I assume you mean you'd put $100 down on Houston to cover.



Part of this has to do with gambling tendencies. After the 14th game, the Pats were 11-3 vs. the spread. Mookie pointed out that the only other better bet was betting against Cleveland, who were 2-12 vs. the spread. I'm pretty sure the Pats covered the spread in the last two games, and Cleveland won a game, so betting the Pats to cover was the best bet in the NFL this season.

Vegas sets the spread mainly to get an approximately equal amount bet on both teams. So the spread's going to be higher in the Houston game to adjust for people who bet on the Pats to cover regardless of what the spread is.

All true. Plus the Patriots are 8-0 all time against the Texans, 4-0 at home and have outscored them 150-40 @ Gillette.

[walrus]

Re: 2015-16 New England Patriots

Pats offense looks like last year against Denver, aka NONE

[walrus]

A win is a win but that was ugly. Final score is deceiving. Defense was great, Brady didn't have a clue most of the time. Should be a good reminder for next week's game.

[mookie1995]

A win is a win but that was ugly. Final score is deceiving. Defense was great, Brady didn't have a clue most of the time. Should be a good reminder for next week's game.

bc's defense would have held houston to less than 16pts. Don't go lickin' everyone's Popsicle just yet.
that was a bad team they beat last night....

[SonofSouthie]

Re: 2015-16 New England Patriots

The bye week is nice for getting healthy and a little rest but's that's about it. They lost after the bye during the reg season. You could tell they were out of sync in the 1st half. I think they'll be fine next week.

[Rover]

Re: 2015-16 New England Patriots

Good enough is my take on the game. Houston has a solid D and are well coached. Not sure why they don't deal a #1 pick for an established QB on a team going nowhere like Rivers or Brees, but whatever. Don't think anybody else they'll face has that pass rush with the Giants and Seahawks out of the playoffs.

Regarding Pittsburgh/KC - don't think either defense can stay with the Pats O. Don't really want to face Rapistburger-Brown-Bell but think Pats can win a shootout.

[walrus]

bc's defense would have held houston to less than 16pts. Don't go lickin' everyone's Popsicle just yet.
that was a bad team they beat last night....

The offense, special teams gave Houston all their points by turnovers. The d shut them down. I don't care who they played the d was great.

[CLS]

Re: 2015-16 New England Patriots

Hard to tell how good the D was, because the Houston O was so bad. There were several open receivers missed and a touchdown pass dropped. The one decent drive Houston had was extended by an undisciplined penalty. Belichick made sure Rowe won't do that again.

Also hard to tell how bad the Pats O was because Houston's D is actually pretty good. Like to see some more stats, but allowing the fewest yards would seem to be quite a feat, because with an offense that appears incapable of sustaining drives, the other team is going to have the ball a lot. I'm not too worried about the interceptions. Neither was a misread or throwing into coverage. Both were within six inches of being completions. More an example of regression to the mean -- Brady's been lucky this year because the tips have been INCs rather than INTs.

One way of looking at this is that the Pats reaped the benefits of taking advantage of a weak schedule to get the top seed. A performance like that against a better team might have meant a loss.

[mookie1995]

Re: 2015-16 New England Patriots

Hard ....

exactly right. they are not going to face a tougher D, nor a lousier O. for as many flaws as may have been exposed, mookie is not sure that another team can mimic the texans to take advantage of them there.