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BC Women's Hockey, 2015-2016: Embrace The Cupcake Diet

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  • #31
    Re: BC Women's Hockey, 2015-2016: Embrace The Cupcake Diet

    With Syracuse being a Big East brother school to BC...should they get into HEA?
    Go Gophers!

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    • #32
      Re: BC Women's Hockey, 2015-2016: Embrace The Cupcake Diet

      Originally posted by 5mn_Major View Post
      With Syracuse being a Big East brother school to BC...should they get into HEA?
      They used to be in the Big East. Then BC fled for the ACC, after decrying other teams leaving the conference, and Syracuse cried foul. I don't think the teams are exactly on the best of terms with one another.

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      • #33
        Originally posted by Hux View Post
        They used to be in the Big East. Then BC fled for the ACC, after decrying other teams leaving the conference, and Syracuse cried foul. I don't think the teams are exactly on the best of terms with one another.
        Can we blame Jim Boeheim and move on?
        CCT '77 & '78
        4 kids
        5 grandsons (BCA 7/09, CJA 5/14, JDL 8/14, JFL 6/16, PJL 7/18)
        1 granddaughter (EML 4/18)

        ”Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both.”
        - Benjamin Franklin

        Banned from the St. Lawrence University Facebook page - March 2016 (But I got better).

        I want to live forever. So far, so good.

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        • #34
          Re: BC Women's Hockey, 2015-2016: Embrace The Cupcake Diet

          As partners in the ACC, they better get past that.
          Go Gophers!

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          • #35
            Re: BC Women's Hockey, 2015-2016: Embrace The Cupcake Diet

            Originally posted by 5mn_Major View Post
            As partners in the ACC, they better get past that.
            Ha yes.

            Cuse and BC don't really have any problems (and they never really did, honestly, outside of the fact that their football fans are rather obnoxious). The animosity is mostly with UConn (who, by the way, is already in Hockey East).

            I'm not really sure which direction Hockey East should go to get back to even teams but I suppose they could do worse than Syracuse. I would rather it be a team that wasn't as far away though.

            IMO the best case scenario is Notre Dame men join the NCHC (no one in Hockey East wants them here and Notre Dame feels like an outsider) and Hockey East replaces them with Quinnipiac. Problem solved.
            Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
            Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
            Twitter: @Salzano14


            Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

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            • #36
              Re: BC Women's Hockey, 2015-2016: Embrace The Cupcake Diet

              Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
              IMO the best case scenario is Notre Dame men join the NCHC (no one in Hockey East wants them here and Notre Dame feels like an outsider) and Hockey East replaces them with Quinnipiac. Problem solved.
              ECAC Hockey may not see that as being as much of a solution as you do.
              "... And lose, and start again at your beginnings
              And never breathe a word about your loss;" -- Rudyard Kipling

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              • #37
                Re: BC Women's Hockey, 2015-2016: Embrace The Cupcake Diet

                I'm aching for hockey season so I started playing with some stats.

                Specifically, I was interested in BC's power play, which was God-awful last year. How God-awful? Well... that's what I seeked to find out.

                BC was 15th in PP% last year which on its face is pretty average, until you realize that BC was by far the highest scoring team in the country last year. How could the highest scoring team in the country be 15th in PP%?

                I tried to adjust the power play rankings instead by how many more goals you score per 60 minutes on the power play versus 60 minutes on even strength.

                ***Skip ahead if you don't care how I got to the numbers I got.***

                To do this, I would need to know how many goals teams scored per power play minute, and to know that, i would need to know how many minutes teams spent on the average power play (it's not 2:00 -- power plays don't always last the full two minutes).

                For lack of a better source, I pulled up last year's NHL stats. The average power play length in the NHL last year was 1:41, and that was pretty darn consistent between teams. No one was lower than 1:34 or higher than 1:45 and 90% of teams were within a few seconds of 1:41.

                Since the NHL has a higher conversion percentage than women's hockey, I took the average power play time of the 13 teams with the PP% closest to that of women's hockey. The end result was that I used an average power play time of 1:42

                I used a rough estimate of 60 minutes per game, subtracted number of minutes on the power play and penalty kill from total minutes played, and that's how I got the number of minutes on the PP and number of minutes even strength. Then it was just a matter of dividing even strength goals by even strength minutes and power play goals by power play minutes.

                ***You can come back now!***

                The end result is that BC's power play last year was pretty ****ing terrible. They were the 3rd worst team in the country, better than only St. Lawrence and RIT, at improving their scoring rate on the power play.

                You would think that maybe with BC already scoring a lot of goals that it would be hard for them to improve their scoring rate much... except Minnesota was 2nd in the country and Harvard was in the top ten.

                The numbers show that in a 60 minute game played entirely at even strength, BC would score about 5.10 goals per game. In a 60 minute game played entirely on the power play, BC would score just one additional goal. That is incredibly bad. One additional goal if they played an entire game on the power play.

                It got even worse in the 2nd half. In the 2nd half, BC was 25th in PP%, which on its own is pretty embarrassing. But after January 1st, BC scored 4.43 goals per 60 even strength minutes, and just 4.52 goals per 60 power play minutes. In the second half, BC scored at effectively the same rate on the power play as it did even strength, good for, again, third worst in the country behind SLU and RIT.

                That...................... needs to be fixed.
                Last edited by TonyTheTiger20; 09-23-2015, 11:25 AM.
                Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
                Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
                Twitter: @Salzano14


                Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

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                • #38
                  Re: BC Women's Hockey, 2015-2016: Embrace The Cupcake Diet

                  Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
                  Ha yes.

                  Cuse and BC don't really have any problems (and they never really did, honestly, outside of the fact that their football fans are rather obnoxious). The animosity is mostly with UConn (who, by the way, is already in Hockey East).

                  I'm not really sure which direction Hockey East should go to get back to even teams but I suppose they could do worse than Syracuse. I would rather it be a team that wasn't as far away though.

                  IMO the best case scenario is Notre Dame men join the NCHC (no one in Hockey East wants them here and Notre Dame feels like an outsider) and Hockey East replaces them with Quinnipiac. Problem solved.
                  Interesting. You'd rather have the Q than Notre Dame? Is that from a men's point of view also? NCHC would seemingly trip overthemselves for that result.
                  Go Gophers!

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                  • #39
                    Re: BC Women's Hockey, 2015-2016: Embrace The Cupcake Diet

                    Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
                    To do this, I would need to know how many goals teams scored per power play minute, and to know that, i would need to know how many minutes teams spent on the average power play (it's not 2:00 -- power plays don't always last the full two minutes).

                    For lack of a better source, I pulled up last year's NHL stats. The average power play length in the NHL last year was 1:41, and that was pretty darn consistent between teams. No one was lower than 1:34 or higher than 1:45 and 90% of teams were within a few seconds of 1:41.

                    Since the NHL has a higher conversion percentage than women's hockey, I took the average power play time of the 13 teams with the PP% closest to that of women's hockey. The end result was that I used an average power play time of 1:42
                    My guess would be that is too long by a little bit. One reason is that in women's hockey we often see the scenario where Team A gets a penalty, and seconds into Team B's PP, Team B commits a penalty of its own. If there are no additional penalties for the next couple of minutes, then each team winds up with a PP of just a few seconds. I don't see that nearly as often in the NHL, but I've seen women's NCAA games where it will happen three or four times in one game within the first 30 seconds of the initial penalty.

                    It's also possible that my perception is flavored by having watched so much of UM's PP scoring at ~ a 30% rate the last few years so that the average lenght of a power play seems shorter.
                    "... And lose, and start again at your beginnings
                    And never breathe a word about your loss;" -- Rudyard Kipling

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                    • #40
                      Re: BC Women's Hockey, 2015-2016: Embrace The Cupcake Diet

                      Originally posted by ARM View Post
                      My guess would be that is too long by a little bit. One reason is that in women's hockey we often see the scenario where Team A gets a penalty, and seconds into Team B's PP, Team B commits a penalty of its own. If there are no additional penalties for the next couple of minutes, then each team winds up with a PP of just a few seconds. I don't see that nearly as often in the NHL, but I've seen women's NCAA games where it will happen three or four times in one game within the first 30 seconds of the initial penalty.
                      I have a feeling this is just your perception. We have no way of actually measuring this, so it doesn't matter, but the net difference in the two would be a second at most even if you're right.
                      It's also possible that my perception is flavored by having watched so much of UM's PP scoring at ~ a 30% rate the last few years so that the average lenght of a power play seems shorter.
                      Ha... There is no doubt that Minnesota's average power play length is somewhat shorter than the others with that ridiculously high conversion percentage. But consider: The top three conversion percentages in the NHL (25, 24, and 23%) had a time per power play of 1:34, 1:36, and 1:39 respectively. The worst three conversion percentages in the NHL (16, 15, and 13%) had time per power play of 1:41, 1:41, and 1:43.

                      Also, the 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th best NHL power plays all had 1:41, and the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th worst all had 1:41. 19 of the 30 teams were within 1 second of the league average, and 24 of the 30 were within 2 seconds.

                      Point is, on the whole there's a small but measurable difference in length of power play compared to conversion percentage, but it's not really large enough to make any meaningful change in the data.
                      Last edited by TonyTheTiger20; 09-23-2015, 01:14 PM. Reason: I must edit every post of mine 30 times after I post them with clarifications, etc.
                      Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
                      Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
                      Twitter: @Salzano14


                      Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

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                      • #41
                        Re: BC Women's Hockey, 2015-2016: Embrace The Cupcake Diet

                        Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
                        Point is, on the whole there's a small but measurable difference in length of power play compared to conversion percentage, but it's not really large enough to make any meaningful change in the data.
                        I agree, especially with the part I bolded.
                        "... And lose, and start again at your beginnings
                        And never breathe a word about your loss;" -- Rudyard Kipling

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                        • #42
                          Re: BC Women's Hockey, 2015-2016: Embrace The Cupcake Diet

                          Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post

                          IMO the best case scenario is Notre Dame men join the NCHC (no one in Hockey East wants them here and Notre Dame feels like an outsider) and Hockey East replaces them with Quinnipiac. Problem solved.
                          Hmmm...that would mean one less catholic school in Hockey East to beat up on the BC men's team. I like having Notre Dame in Hockey East - no need to swap them out from my point of view.

                          Hmmm...could it be because Qpac is practically in Grant's backyard so he'd get to see his men's and women's Eagles play in Hamden every year?

                          I'd rather see Holy Cross step up their women's program and have both the men's and women's teams join Hockey East. I've given up on hoping UMass would bump up to D1 from club level.
                          THINK PINK
                          BLEED BLUE

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                          • #43
                            Re: BC Women's Hockey, 2015-2016: Embrace The Cupcake Diet

                            Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
                            Ha yes.
                            I'm not really sure which direction Hockey East should go to get back to even teams but I suppose they could do worse than Syracuse. I would rather it be a team that wasn't as far away though.
                            I would take Yale and Dartmouth. Would be interested to see how they stack up against HE's mid-tier teams. I know it won't happen of course. I kind of like the mystique of Harvard being in a different conference though.

                            Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
                            I'm aching for hockey season so I started playing with some stats.

                            Specifically, I was interested in BC's power play, which was God-awful last year. How God-awful? Well... that's what I seeked to find out.

                            The end result is that BC's power play last year was pretty ****ing terrible. They were the 3rd worst team in the country, better than only St. Lawrence and RIT, at improving their scoring rate on the power play.

                            You would think that maybe with BC already scoring a lot of goals that it would be hard for them to improve their scoring rate much... except Minnesota was 2nd in the country and Harvard was in the top ten.

                            The numbers show that in a 60 minute game played entirely at even strength, BC would score about 5.10 goals per game. In a 60 minute game played entirely on the power play, BC would score just one additional goal. That is incredibly bad. One additional goal if they played an entire game on the power play.

                            It got even worse in the 2nd half. In the 2nd half, BC was 25th in PP%, which on its own is pretty embarrassing. But after January 1st, BC scored 4.43 goals per 60 even strength minutes, and just 4.52 goals per 60 power play minutes. In the second half, BC scored at effectively the same rate on the power play as it did even strength, good for, again, third worst in the country behind SLU and RIT.
                            That was great analysis, Grant. Somehow we're unstoppable when defenders are in disarray but completely confused if the opponents' defence gets even a bit organized. The Minnesota example shows it doesn't have to be that way.

                            You can always argue that Minnesota faces tougher opposition so having them on the PK benefits Minnesota more than a PP against a weak team benefits us... but there's a huge difference between Minnesota and Wisconsin, who faced similar opposition, and a huge difference between us and BU. So I think the conclusion is pretty watertight: that... needs to be fixed.

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                            • #44
                              Re: BC Women's Hockey, 2015-2016: Embrace The Cupcake Diet

                              Originally posted by wwhyte View Post
                              That was great analysis, Grant. Somehow we're unstoppable when defenders are in disarray but completely confused if the opponents' defence gets even a bit organized. The Minnesota example shows it doesn't have to be that way.
                              That reminds me of a couple of editions of the Gopher men's team from six or eight years ago, who routinely would dominate play for several minutes with great scoring chances until the other team finally had to commit a penalty, at which point the Gophers spent two minutes unable to get the puck into the offensive zone until the penalty expired, at which point they would go back to dominating play.

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                              • #45
                                Re: BC Women's Hockey, 2015-2016: Embrace The Cupcake Diet

                                Originally posted by Eeyore View Post
                                That reminds me of a couple of editions of the Gopher men's team from six or eight years ago, who routinely would dominate play for several minutes with great scoring chances until the other team finally had to commit a penalty, at which point the Gophers spent two minutes unable to get the puck into the offensive zone until the penalty expired, at which point they would go back to dominating play.
                                It's just baffling. It shouldn't be that hard to figure out how to play with fewer opponents defending you.
                                Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
                                Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
                                Twitter: @Salzano14


                                Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

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